Showing posts with label Eli Manning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eli Manning. Show all posts

Monday, February 4, 2008

Can't Say I Saw This Coming

Allow me to quote myself, from three and a half weeks ago, regarding the Super Bowl MVP odds for players on teams other than New England, Indianapolis, and Dallas:
"Please don't bet on any of these, they are awful. It would be absolutely hilarious if Rivers or Eli won the award, though."
First of all, I completely stand by this statement. I was rooting for Eli on that last drive, only because the situation was so absurd. Manning was 40:1 to win the MVP at that point- if you made that bet, congratulations, you are brilliant. I still contend that betting on him at +350 last week to win the SB MVP would have been dumb, as you could have gotten similar odds simply betting on the Giants to win outright.

Last summer, the Giants were 28:1 at Bodog to win the Super Bowl. But you could have gotten even better odds at the beginning of the playoffs, since the idea of Eli Manning winning three road games and then beating the AFC representative seemed completely insane (still does). I had them at 1.2%; I think you could've gotten them as high as 75:1. Prior to the game, Bodog had "New York Giants win by 1-6 points" at 9-2.

Anyway, on to the fun stuff. I e-mailed the good people at Bodog*, and they informed me that Jordan Sparks' National Anthem was timed at 1:54. So, as expected, the over was the winner there. The O/U was originally 1m42s, but got up to 1m48s by game time, with the "Under" paying at +110.

Lozo's lock of the century came through when Frank Caliendo picked the Giants to win. The "No" on "Will the entire Fox pre-game team pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl?" paid out at +140, which is pretty solid.

For "Who will the MVP of the Game thank first", longshot "Doesn't think anyone" was the winner, at 6:1. Eli mentioned his teammates, but didn't specifically thank them. In retrospect, this really isn't all that surprising, and would have been a really good bet.

The color of the liquid dumped on Coughlin was definitely "Transparent", which was listed at 4:1.
Unfortunately, none of the ridiculous Tom Petty props hit. I'm still convinced that "will curse during performance" at 80:1 was a good value, however.

Petty started off with "An American Girl"- that was +175. He followed with "I Won't Back Down", and then "Free Fallin". I thought that was it- "Free Fallin" was a heavy favorite to be the song he closed with, at -200. But then, in an upset almost as big as the Giants' victory itself (not really), Petty shocked the world and continued with "Runnin' Down A Dream", which was listed at +135 to be his final song.

A couple other big surprises came with the Peyton and Archie props. Bodog claims that Buck mentioned Peyton's name just once during the broadcast. I find this hard to believe, as they must have showed the guy eight times. Regardless, "Under 5.5" was the winner there, and paid out at -125. Archie was not shown at all (was he even there?), so "Under 4.5" was the winner, at +110.

On a completely unrelated note, let's not forget Tom Brady's response to Burress' prediction of a 23-17 Giants victory:
"We're only going to score 17 points? OK. Is Plax playing defense?"
14, actually. And no, Plax did not play defense. Offense, though.

*When I say "the good people at Bodog", I sincerely mean this. They began their reply to my e-mail with "Dear Mr. Watch", which cracked me up.

Photo: Getty Images, via Yahoo! and SI.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Inside Vegas: Round Two

The chances of each remaining team winning the Super Bowl, based on the futures odds at Sportsbetting, BetUS, Bodog, VIP, Sports Interaction, The Greek, Bookmaker, and Matchbook:

Not much movement, since the four prohibitive favorites had a bye. It is important to note that the changes in the NYG and SEA lines are quite substantial. The Giants' average line went from 63:1 to 33:1, and Seattle's went from 43:1 to 35:1. These don't show up as a large absolute change in percentage, since they are a longshot either way, but New York's percentage more than doubled with their win.

Just in comparison with other lines, it looks like Jacksonville's 22.5:1 at The Greek is the best bet of the week. The overall lines give them a 5.1% chance, while they would only need a 4.26% chance for the bet to break even.

From BetUS:

There has been one six TD game in 41 Super Bowls, yet Tom Brady, whose team is two wins away from even playing in the game, is only 10:1 to accomplish this feat.

Winning by 46 or more would mean New England breaks the SB margin of victory record (XXIV, 49ers, 55-10). I'm actually kind of surprised it's this high. There have been 41 Super Bowls, with one team winning by 45 points. New England is about 60% to reach the SB, so they'd need to have a 1 in 25 shot at breaking the MOV record for it to be a good bet.

The Patriots' average MOV was 19.7 points. They beat the Redskins by 45, and Buffalo by 46. So it looks like the 40:1 line is pretty reasonable, and may even be a decent bet.

I don't why the third line is listed under "New England Specials", beyond the fact that they're assuming the Patriots will be playing in the game.

The SB coin toss line is some combination of idiotic and hilarious. It is certainly not a good bet, unless you think New England somehow has greater than a 50% chance of winning the coin toss if they reach the SB.

Lastly, BetUS has some SB MVP odds, which I'll go through by team.

New England (51.7% chance of winning Super Bowl)
Tom Brady, -130
Laurence Maroney, +2000
Wes Welker, +2500
Randy Moss, +1000

The Brady line is atrocious.

If NE wins it all, is there a 1 in 10 chance that Maroney will win the award? 1 in 5 for Moss? Those sound about right to me.

Indianapolis (14.8%)
Peyton Manning, +600
Joseph Addai, +1500
Reggie Wayne, +2000

The would have to be a 96.5% chance that Peyton wins the MVP if Indy wins the SB for that to be a good bet. There isn't.

Addai would need a 42% chance of winning in a Colts SB win; 32% for Wayne. Neither of these are good bets.

Dallas (10.6%)
Tony Romo, +800
Terrell Owens, +1500
Jason Witten, +2800

Romo would have to have a 105% chance of winning the MVP in a Cowboys SB victory for this to be a profitable wager.

Owens would have to be 59%; 33% for Witten. All of theses odds are terrible.

The rest:

Green Bay (7.7%)
Brett Favre, +1100
Ryan Grant, +2500
Greg Jennings, +3000
Jacksonville (5.1%)
David Garrard, +2000
Fred Taylor, +2800
Maurice Jones-Drew, +3000
San Diego (5.0%)
Phillip Rivers, +2000
LaDainian Tomlinson, +2500
NY Giants (2.6%)
Eli Manning, +4000
Plaxico Burress, +6500
Seattle (2.4%)
Matt Hasselbeck, +4000
Bobby Engram, +6500

Please don't bet on any of these, they are awful. It would be absolutely hilarious if Rivers or Eli won the award, though. I think Maroney (20:1) and Moss (10:1) are the only lines even worth considering.

Photos: Young, Eli.