2008 NFL Wins Over/Unders, Part 2

Last week, when I posted Sportsbook's win totals for the upcoming NFL seasons, a few people (including myself) wondered how we should factor in the juice. For example, New England's total was 12, but the over was -130, and the under was EV, so we'd expect them to go over more often than they went under. With the help of RMMB statistics guru Adam, I figured out how to account for this.

First, I want to note some changes- exactly half of the lines have moved since I posted them. This should be self explanatory, except for the last column. Red means people have been taking the under; blue, the over.The Buffalo line has really moved a ton- they must've read my comment that the Buffalo under might be a good play. Also interesting to note that people have been taking the overs on the two highest totals on the board, New England (12) and Indianapolis (11).

Below are the expected wins for each team, after factoring in the juice. I also adjusted for the fact that after doing this, the average is 8.05 wins. These average to 8. The next column is simply their expected winning percentage. The final column is how often they'd be expected to win 10 or more games. This was initially intended to create very rough playoff odds for each team, but they only add up to 8.77. Oh well.

With this, we can also take another look at the strength of each division:

The West and South really hold the NFC down- the conference's overall average is 7.86, while the AFC's is (predictably) 8.14.

Finally, the odds that the top five teams in the league to 16-0:

Some site should really offer odds on these, or at least on the Pats going undefeated. My guess on the listed odds of that would be 15:1. I'm sure that would get a good deal of action.

2008 NFL Wins Over/Unders

These are from Sportsbook. They are the first to post them, I believe.

8.5 for the defending Super Bowl champs. Nice.

Some crazy juice on these, since the season is 1/10 as long as baseball and there's not much room to move them around. Ignoring the juice for now, average wins for each division:

The NFC average is 7.72, while the AFC is 8.03 (the overall average is less than 8; it looks like you have to pay more juice for most of the overs, though). The only NFC team over 8.5 is the Cowboys, at 10.5.

Money Line had a post a few weeks back listing various helpful stats from last year. The correlation between last year's wins and this year's O/Us is .887; the correlation between last year's Pythag record and this year's O/Us is .900.

Here are the biggest difference between '07 Pythag and '08 O/U:

The three teams with the biggest discrepancies between '07 wins and '07 Pythag were the Patriots (16, 13.8), Bills (7, 4.9), and Dolphins (1, 3.8). So, in theory, that would make the NE U, BUF U, and MIA O attractive, although there are obviously many other factors to consider.

The Catch, 2008 Edition

(Getty Images, via Yahoo!)

It takes something pretty unbelievable for me to have a post that consists only a photo from a football game.

I think this easily qualifies. Props recap post soon.

Inside Vegas: Conference Championships

The chances of each remaining team winning the Super Bowl, based on the futures odds at Sports Interaction, The Greek, Bookmaker, and Matchbook:

I took out some of the sites that have really high juice on these, as that skews things when a team's odds get as high as New England's.

The Pats are favored by 14 on Sunday, and their -700 line at Matchbook puts them at 86.8% to advance. So, if they get there, they're 82% to win the Super Bowl.

The Chargers' 13.2% chance of advancing coupled with their 7.8% Super Bowl chance puts them at 59% to win the SB if they get there. Combining the two, that puts the AFC at 79% to win the Super Bowl.

Given this, I'm surprised that the early SB line is AFC by 13.5; that seems too high. The Pats being favored by 14 this week gives them a 87% chance of winning. If the AFC is only 79% to win the SB, why are they favored by 13.5 points?

The first three here are unchanged from last week. The coin toss line is actually surprisingly close to being a good bet, but not quite.

That Brady line is even more incredible than last week's -130. He has to have better than a 77.8% chance of winning the MVP for that to be a good bet. The Pats are only 71.2% to win the Super Bowl.

Same goes for Favre. +500 needs a 17% chance to break even; the Packers are 14.9% to win the SB. These lines are shockingly bad.

Moss at +800 is infinitely better than those two. Does Moss have a 16% or better chance of winning the MVP if the Pats win the SB? If he does, it's a good bet. Seems like he might.

Same goes for Maroney at 15:1; he only needs a 9% chance of being the MVP in a Pats win for that to be a good bet. If the game was going to be played in cold weather that'd be really enticing, but, well, it's not.

Inside Vegas: Round Two

The chances of each remaining team winning the Super Bowl, based on the futures odds at Sportsbetting, BetUS, Bodog, VIP, Sports Interaction, The Greek, Bookmaker, and Matchbook:

Not much movement, since the four prohibitive favorites had a bye. It is important to note that the changes in the NYG and SEA lines are quite substantial. The Giants' average line went from 63:1 to 33:1, and Seattle's went from 43:1 to 35:1. These don't show up as a large absolute change in percentage, since they are a longshot either way, but New York's percentage more than doubled with their win.

Just in comparison with other lines, it looks like Jacksonville's 22.5:1 at The Greek is the best bet of the week. The overall lines give them a 5.1% chance, while they would only need a 4.26% chance for the bet to break even.

From BetUS:

There has been one six TD game in 41 Super Bowls, yet Tom Brady, whose team is two wins away from even playing in the game, is only 10:1 to accomplish this feat.

Winning by 46 or more would mean New England breaks the SB margin of victory record (XXIV, 49ers, 55-10). I'm actually kind of surprised it's this high. There have been 41 Super Bowls, with one team winning by 45 points. New England is about 60% to reach the SB, so they'd need to have a 1 in 25 shot at breaking the MOV record for it to be a good bet.

The Patriots' average MOV was 19.7 points. They beat the Redskins by 45, and Buffalo by 46. So it looks like the 40:1 line is pretty reasonable, and may even be a decent bet.

I don't why the third line is listed under "New England Specials", beyond the fact that they're assuming the Patriots will be playing in the game.

The SB coin toss line is some combination of idiotic and hilarious. It is certainly not a good bet, unless you think New England somehow has greater than a 50% chance of winning the coin toss if they reach the SB.

Lastly, BetUS has some SB MVP odds, which I'll go through by team.

New England (51.7% chance of winning Super Bowl)
Tom Brady, -130
Laurence Maroney, +2000
Wes Welker, +2500
Randy Moss, +1000

The Brady line is atrocious.

If NE wins it all, is there a 1 in 10 chance that Maroney will win the award? 1 in 5 for Moss? Those sound about right to me.

Indianapolis (14.8%)
Peyton Manning, +600
Joseph Addai, +1500
Reggie Wayne, +2000

The would have to be a 96.5% chance that Peyton wins the MVP if Indy wins the SB for that to be a good bet. There isn't.

Addai would need a 42% chance of winning in a Colts SB win; 32% for Wayne. Neither of these are good bets.

Dallas (10.6%)
Tony Romo, +800
Terrell Owens, +1500
Jason Witten, +2800

Romo would have to have a 105% chance of winning the MVP in a Cowboys SB victory for this to be a profitable wager.

Owens would have to be 59%; 33% for Witten. All of theses odds are terrible.

The rest:

Green Bay (7.7%)
Brett Favre, +1100
Ryan Grant, +2500
Greg Jennings, +3000
Jacksonville (5.1%)
David Garrard, +2000
Fred Taylor, +2800
Maurice Jones-Drew, +3000
San Diego (5.0%)
Phillip Rivers, +2000
LaDainian Tomlinson, +2500
NY Giants (2.6%)
Eli Manning, +4000
Plaxico Burress, +6500
Seattle (2.4%)
Matt Hasselbeck, +4000
Bobby Engram, +6500

Please don't bet on any of these, they are awful. It would be absolutely hilarious if Rivers or Eli won the award, though. I think Maroney (20:1) and Moss (10:1) are the only lines even worth considering.

Photos: Young, Eli.

Inside Vegas: Wild Card Weekend

The chances of each remaining team winning the Super Bowl, based on the futures odds at Sportsbetting, BetUS, Bodog, VIP, Sports Interaction, The Greek, Bookmaker, and Matchbook:

Essentially New England vs. the field at this point, which is to be expected. I would guess the Pats' 51.1% breaks down to something like an 88% chance of winning their first game, 75% for their second, and 78% for the SB (neutral site, but against an NFC team clearly inferior to the Colts, their likely AFC Championship opponent.)

As far as I can tell, the best you can do on the Pats to win the SB is -138 at Matchbook, and -145 at The Greek.

Bodog has the two most likely SB matchups as Pats-Cowboys (2/3) and Pats-Packers (7/2). Indy-Dallas is third, at 5/1. The highest odds I have seen are at The Greek for Bucs-Chargers and Giants-Chargers, at 172.5:1 each. (Something like Titans-Redskins would obviously be much higher than that, but these sites don't list all the possible matchups, and have the field at around 5:1.)

The "Early Super Bowl Line", which was once as high as AFC -16.5 (after New England's 45-point win over the Redskins) is down to 11.

As usual, BetUS has some completely random props. The O/U for total points scored this weekend is 160.5, and the O/U for FGs is 12.5. The prop for Randy Moss' total TD catches in the playoffs came out at 5 (which seemed almost ridiculously high), but is now down to 4.5.

The playoff favorites for most receiving, passing, and rushing yards are Moss (+200), Brady (EV), and Maroney (+350), respectively. I'm shocked. Amusingly, Eli Manning has the highest odds of anyone, at 30:1 to have the most passing yards.

No More Undefeated Odds

Well, the Pats did it. It looked pretty unlikely a couple months ago, but the chances steadily increased with each win. The graph below tracks their odds of going 16-0 since prior to the Colts game; the horizontal axis is how many wins they had, the vertical axis is their % chance of going undefeated.Big jump after the wins over Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, which makes sense. A similar increase after their 15th win over the Jets, which is kind of strange.

Back when they were 8-0, BetUS had them at +200 to go undefeated, which seemed pretty ridiculous. But looking back, this actually wasn't a bad line. The money lines for their last 8 games were (approximately) as follows:

Their last seven games have really been unbelievable; they have been favored by an average of 18.4 points. Ridiculous.

If you had bet $10 on them to beat the Colts at -240, you would have ended up with $14.17. If you had then taken that money and bet on them to win in Week 10, you would have gotten to $15.11. Continuing this strategy for the rest of the season, you would have finished with $22.68 after tonight's win. So, in total, you would have been betting $10 to win $12.68; essentially a line of +127.

This is much worse than the +200 line BetUS had on them winning their last eight. This surprises me; usually with a prop like that, you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. I guess it would have been impossible to know how heavily they would be favored in these games, but even if you slightly underestimated them, you would have found that +200 was the better option.

The fact that it was the better option doesn't mean it was a good option, however. Below is the % chance each of these lines indicates New England had of winning the game, after taking out the house advantage (which is 3.6% on these NFL money lines).

Multiplying all these percentages together gets us to a 33.2% chance they would go undefeated. Amazingly, that would imply a line of +201. So it looks like +200 was too high; in the long run, you would come out pretty much even on that. In hindsight, knowing the ridiculous margins New England was favored by in their final seven games, it probably should have been about +170, allowing the books to have their normal advantage.

I doubt tonight's win changes their SB odds; that's still probably at about 50%.

Week 17 Undefeated Odds

This week's Patriots undefeated odds, from Bookmaker:


Well this got boring. It was a lot more interesting when there were nine possible outcomes. The Pats are favored by 13.5 in the Meadowlands on Saturday, and you would have to bet $11 on them winning straight up to win a single dollar.

So, they're almost 90% to go 16-0. But that doesn't matter at this point, really. If they go 16-0 and then lose in the playoffs, they won't be remembered as the "Undefeated" team, they'll be remembered (fairly or not) as the "16-0 Team That Choked in the Playoffs".

The question becomes, what are the odds that they win the Super Bowl? Those odds at seven different sites are below, as well as the % chance the line indicates they have at winning it.


Not even 50%. Assuming the two are mutually exclusive (which is not a perfect assumption, but that's okay), 88.6% to beat the Giants multiplied by 49.7% to win the SB gives them a 44.0% shot at finishing 19-0.

Also, BetUS has the over/under for the temperature at kickoff of the Super Bowl at 72.5 degrees. As you may have gathered, they have props on pretty much anything.

Photo: SI.

Week 17 Playoff Odds

With one week left in the regular season, there are only three spots still up for grabs- the last playoff spot in either conference, and the #3 seed in the AFC.

The Titans control the fate of the AFC #6 seed. If they win, they're in. At Bookmaker, Tennessee is favored by 6.5 points against the Colts, and is -305 to win. So there's a 72.8% chance the Titans get in. That leaves 27.2% for the Browns, whose game against the 49ers has no effect on the playoff picture, unless the Titans' game ends in a tie.

The Chargers and Steelers are also still battling it out for the #3 seed, and the opportunity to avoid the big, bad Patriots until the AFC Championship game. San Diego is in the driver's seat- with a Chargers win, or a Steelers loss, they get the third spot. They are -380 to beat the lowly Raiders, and the Steelers are -200 to beat Baltimore. So that leaves San Diego with a 85.1% chance of grabbing the #3 seed, with Pittsburgh at 14.9%.

The race for the final spot in the NFC is a little more complex, as there are three teams involved. But there is a clear pecking order- first Redskins, then Vikings, then Saints. For Washington, it's simple- if they beat the Cowboys, they're in. They also backdoor their way in if all three teams lose. Washington is -460 to beat the Cowboys; the combination of these two scenarios gives them a solid 83.3% chance of getting in.

Minnesota needs a little help, but they'll be if they win and the Redskins lose. The Vikings go to Denver, where they are favored by favored by a field goal, and -175 to win. Even being favorites, they only have a 12.5% chance of overtaking the Redskins.

New Orleans, at 7-8, needs a lot of help- they only way they get in is if they win, and both Washington and Minnesota get upset. This leaves them as almost a 20:1 longshot, with a 4.2% chance of sneaking in.

Photo: Smarter. Scenarios: ESPN.

Tiebreakers At Their Finest

So I was checking what today's pathetic loss means for the Browns' playoff hopes. I was quite confused, on many levels, when I saw this:

You know what else is simple? The uses of "their" and "they're".

Anyway, beyond the grammar, at first this didn't make sense to me. After all, the Browns have another game left as well. Is it possible that Cleveland's Week 17 game doesn't matter? Apparently so:

This goes beyond no longer controlling their own destiny. The Browns no longer have any effect on their own destiny. I was trying to figure out the tiebreakers, and failing miserably, until I found this. Here's how it breaks down:

TEN wins, CLE loses: Titans are 10-6, Browns 9-7. Tennessee is in.

TEN wins, CLE wins: Both are 10-6. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but they haven't played. Second is W-L % in AFC games. The Titans play the Colts, if they win that they'll be 7-5 in the conference. The Browns play the 49ers, and are currently 7-5 in the conference, so that's another tie. Third tiebreaker is W-L % in common games. Both teams have played the Texans, Raiders, Bengals and Jets. The Browns are 3-2 in those games; Titans are 4-1. Tennessee is in.

TEN loses, CLE wins: Titans are 9-7, Browns are 10-6. Cleveland is in.

TEN loses, CLE loses: Both are 9-7. First tiebreaker is still useless. But now, since the Titans lost to the Colts, they are 6-6 in AFC games, while the Browns are 7-5. Cleveland is in.

Got all that? In both situations where Tennessee wins, they are in. If the Titans lose, the Browns are in. So how does Romeo get the Browns hyped up for their game? There is one scenario in which Cleveland's game matters- if the Titans-Colts game ends in a tie.

Week 16 Undefeated Odds

This week's Patriots undefeated odds, from BetUS:


75.5% is probably low, if anything. For -550 to be a profitable wager, they would have to have a 84.6% chance of going undefeated, so it's probably between those two numbers.

This week, they are favored by 22. The money line is +1200/-2500 at BetUS, which indicates the Pats are 92.6% to beat Miami.

If they beat Miami, it will be interesting to see what happens in Week 17 against the Giants. New England will already have the #1 seed locked up, while the Giants may be fighting for their playoff lives. So the question becomes, how much will Tom Brady play? Results Disoriented has some interesting analysis. It concludes with this:

"With the 2% probability of a serious injury costing them 38% of their chance at a championship, the Pats are costing themselves less than 1% of a Super Bowl title in expected value by letting Brady play the whole game, while giving up 25% of their chance to go undefeated."

Essentially, Belichick & Co. would have to value winning the Super Bowl over 25 times as much as going 16-0 for it to make sense to sit Brady against the Giants. I'm sure they won't do this kind of analysis, but I think they'll come to the same conclusion- it's worth risking the tiny chance Brady gets hurt in Week 17. This is especially true for Belichick and Brady, as they've already got three rings.

Update: Sportsbook has Week 17 lines posted, and has New England as 11-point favorites. As far as I can tell, that gives them about an 86% chance of winning (there isn't a money line yet). So, if they are 92.6% to win this week, and 86% to win next week, that's 79.6% to go 16-0. Which is right in the middle of my original two numbers. A 20% chance of them losing one of the next two seems high to me, but it looks like that's what it's at.

Week 15 Playoff Odds

Disclaimer: I know pretty much nothing about the NFL this year.

SportsBetting (and Sportsbook, for that matter- they have the same lines) has posted odds for a few teams to make the playoffs. Let's take a look.

Now, these may be meaningful to you, but they're not to me. However, Football Outsiders conveniently has a page where they list each team's % chance of making the playoffs. So let's compare.

This first table is for the odds that each team will make the playoffs. The first number is the % chance they would need to have for it to be a profitable bet. The second number is the % chance Football Outsiders (FO) gives them of making the playoffs. And the final column is the FO number divided by the first number; the higher that number, the more profitable the bet.

The one that really jumps out here is the Bills (+600). If they had a 1 in 7 chance the bet would break even, but FO thinks they have nearly a 1 in 5 shot. They are 7-6, and their final three games are @CLE, vsNYG, @PHI.

Now, the same thing with the odds that each will miss the playoffs:


Looks like the Vikings' +400 line is the best one available. I don't really understand why their line is so high. The Giants are 9-4, and have an 83% chance of ending up as the #5 seed. So that leaves one spot for the Vikings (7-6), Redskins (6-7), Lions (6-7), Saints (6-7), and Cardinals (6-7). Just looking at that, it seems like their chance of not making the playoffs is much closer to 34% than 20%.

The Jaguars also look like a nice longshot, at 50:1.

Week 15 Undefeated Odds

This weeks' Patriots undefeated odds, from BetUS, and Bodog:


The odds at BetUS are just much better, for the realistic options. This actually causes the BetUS percentages to be higher, since the percentages (before adjusting) for all their odds add up to 108%, while Bodog's add up to 124%. So the BetUS 16-0 odds end up being more favorable to wager on, and they also indicate the Pats having a better chance of winning out.

At BetUS the Pats are now -130 (53%) to go 19-0, and EV (47%) to lose at some point. The Dolphins are -250 (66%) to go 0-16, and +175 (44%) to win at least one of their next three.

New England is favored by 22.5 points against the Jets on Sunday. At BetUS, New York is 12:1 (8%) to win, while the Pats are 1:25 (92%) .

Finally, BetUs also has odds on Michael Vick starting another game as an NFL QB; "Yes" is +200 (31%), "No" is -300 (69%).

Edit: This is a good point by j holz in the comments:

"you might want to point out that you can bet the Dolphins to lose this week at -170 at almost any book. Combined with the +175 to win any of their next three games, that's a pretty solid freeroll."

So, if you bet $17 on Miami to lose this week, and $10 on them to not go undefeated, you will come out even most of the time, with the opportunity to win both bets if they lose this week but win one of their last two games (@NE, vsCIN).

Week 14 Undefeated Odds

This weeks' Patriots undefeated odds, from BetUS, and Bodog:

Bodog's odds are slightly worse. At BetUS you'd have to bet $25 on them going 16-0 to win $10; at Bodog you'd need to wager $35. But they come to pretty much the same percentages, which is interesting.

Matchbook has odds up as well; they're -220 to go 16-0, +150 to lose at least one game. That comes out to a 63.2% chance of winning out.

SportsBetting has it at -220 and +170 (the bets odds I've seen on them not going undefeated), which comes out to 65.0%.

Also from BetUS:


Quite obviously, these both indicate 50-50 chances of these outcomes.

SportsBetting has Miami going 0-16 at +140, with them managing a win at -170 (which work out to 39.8% and 60.2%, respectively). Their last four games are @BUF, vsBAL, @NE, vsCIN.

Also: Brian Sabean is crazy.

Dolphins: Winless, Yet Favored?

This afternoon fellow EC member Simon pointed out that the Dolphins are actually favored by 1 this week against the Jets. This is somewhat amazing, as Miami is currently 0-11. Simon wondered if such a poor team had ever been favored before, which I thought was an interesting question.

Sunday Strategy only has lines since 2000, so we're limited by that. Over the last seven years there have been 12 teams that have failed to win more than three games:

Rough decade for Lions fans.

Anyway, there were six instances in which one of these teams was favored in one of their last five games. These didn't go very well:

I thought it was pretty amazing that the 2-13 Texans were favored on the road in '05. The 49ers were pretty bad as well (3-12 at that point), but 4.5 points worse than Houston? That's pretty impressive. I guess, despite their record, people didn't think the Texans were that bad, since they were favored in two of their last three games.

The rest of these teams were at home, which is not exactly surprising. As a group, these six teams lost by an average score of 22-13. The Bills managed to win, but even they didn't cover the spread.

What does this all mean? Well, nothing, really. Each of these teams had at least one win under their belt, which is more than we can say for Miami. But the Dolphins aren't that bad; six of their 11 losses have come by just three points.

Interestingly, the action has been pretty even on both sides for Sunday's showdown. I'll be rooting for the Dolphins Jets, if only because I'm hoping for a 14-0 Pats vs. 0-14 Dolphins showdown in Week 15. You thought the Eagles line was ridiculous? That one could approach four TDs on some sites.

Week 13 Undefeated Odds

This weeks' Patriots undefeated odds, from BetUS:

I know they're not going to lose five in a row. But 1500:1? That's pretty tempting.

Their percentage has increased by 5.5% since last week which is interesting. The money line for the Eagles game (+1600 for Philly, -4000 for the Pats) indicated they had about a 94% chance of winning. 46.0% to 51.5% is a big jump for unimpressively winning a game you only had a 6% chance of losing.

I have no idea why, but most of the other sites don't have odds up this week. You can bet on the Super Bowl coin toss, but not on whether the Pats will win out. The one site that does have a line is Matchbook, where they're -175 to go 16-0, +150 for 15-1 or worse. So, despite the less favorable line, they think the chances are even better, at 61.4%.

Week 12 Undefeated Odds

This weeks' Patriots undefeated odds, from BetUS:


That percentage is the chance the line indicates they actually have of winning out; for it to be a profitable bet, you'd have to think they have a 60% chance.

They have steadily climbed, from 18% at 7-0, to 26%, 40%, and now 46%.

What's interesting this week, as R-D points out, is how different the odds are at various sites:



Apparently the Intertops line was closer to even earlier in the week. What's interesting here is that one could bet on both sides. If you put $10 on "No" at VIP, and $19.40 on "Yes" at Intertops, you would be betting $29.40, and guaranteed to end up with $32. Regardless of what happens, you have an 8.8% profit.

Or, if you think they'll go undefeated, you could bet on it with no risk. This would involve betting $4.55 on "No", and $10 on "Yes". This way, if they don't go undefeated, you break even, but if they do, you'll end up with $16.49; a 13% profit.

Finally, if you don't think they'll go undefeated, you could bet $10 on "No", and $15.40 on "Yes". If they go undefeated you break even, but if they don't you'll end up with $32, a 26% profit (the % profit is higher this way because it's a less likely scenario).

(Photo is a screenshot from this absurd "interview", which is worth watching (via TBL).)

Updated Undefeated Odds

Last week, the Pats were 2:1 to go undefeated at BetUS.com. Since their win on Sunday, various other sites have put up odds on them going 16-0, although BetUS is still the only site with odds on their exact record. They have 13-3 at 1.2:1, which I'm pretty sure is a mistake, so I took the liberty of changing that.

Two weeks ago they were 3.5:1 (18%). Before the Colts game they were 2~1 (26%), and now they're 1:1 (40%).

SportsBetting's line (+120) puts them at 43% while VIP has it at +115 (44%). Matchbook's line is less optimistic, +140 (41%). Regardless, it seems like they've got a little better than a 2 in 5 chance of winning out.

Meanwhile, the Rams and Dolphins remain winless, so of course there are odds on them going 0-16. BetUS has Miami at 6:1, and the Rams at 10:1. They also have a prop "NE Suffer[s] 1st Loss To Miami", although they don't have a line posted for it, unfortunately. SportsBetting has the Dolphins not winning a game at 8:1, St. Louis at 12:1. So it looks like there's about a 1 in 5 chance that we'll have a team go 0-16.

New England's Unprecedented Run

The Pats may have won on Sunday to keep their hopes of an undefeated season alive, but their more impressive streak ended. In the first eight weeks of the season, New England was favored by an average of 11 points, ranging from 5 to 16.5. They covered each of these spreads, by an average of 14.5 points (adding those two together, their average margin of victory was an astounding 25.5 points). Against the Colts, they were favored by between 4.5 and 6.5 points at various sites, and only won by four, ending their streak.

So they're now 9-0, and 8-1 against the spread. From 2000-2006, nine teams won at least eight of their first nine games. Here's how the did against the spread, and how they did the rest of the season.

The '03 Chiefs are the only team that got off to a similar start, and they finished relatively poorly. But these really aren't comparable situations; if you look at that team, they weren't favored by more than 10 points in any of their first nine games. The Steelers did very well aganst the spread in '04, and had a great second half. Again, they're really not comparable, as that team wasn't favored by more than six points sin any of those games.

The problem with trying to find a comparison is that there isn't one. The Pats have been getting an unprecedented amount of respect from Vegas; Sunday's line gave them credit for being nine points better than the NFL's second best team, which is hard to comprehend. They will probably be about even money to go undefeated when those odds are updated later this week, and I'm not sure that I would bet against that at this point.

What Are The Odds: 16-0

Edit: Updated odds are here.

As you may have heard, the Colts and Patriots are playing each other this weekend. If the Pats win, they'll move to 9-0; Indianapolis would be 8-0.

Regardless of Sunday's winner, the undefeated hype will really get serious. In fact, BetUS has already posted odds on what record each team will finish with.

Below are the posted odds, as well as the equivalent percentage. The % has been adjusted to take out the house advantage, so each teams' add up to 100%.


Before Sunday's 52-7 win over the Redskins, the Pats were at 3.5:1 (18.2%); prior to beating the Panthers, Indy was 8.5:1 (8.8%). The fact that these lines moved pretty dramatically indicates they got a lot of action on "16-0" for each team last week.

I think this may have unreasonably changed the line. WSEX has the line for either team going 16-0 at +177; the equivalent % for that is 34.7%. The Pats' and Colts' "16-0" BetUS odds add up to 38.2%. So maybe it's closer to 24% for the Pats, and 11% for Indy.

The line on this week's game is all over the place; BetUS has it at 6.5, but The Greek has the Pats favored by 5. Either way, that's pretty unbelievable, since this game is at the RCA Dome. Those lines mean the Pats are between 8 and 9.5 points better than Indy, after you figure in the three points for home-field. I know the Pats are good, but are they really that much better than a team that's 7-0?

Anyway, that means the Pats win on Sunday about 69% of the time, according to Vegas. So it depends on the margin of victory, but if the Pats win on Sunday their "16-0" odds would shift to about even money, or 38% after taking out the house advantage. A Colts win would probably put them at about the same odds (maybe 3:2, although people would probably go nuts if they beat NE). Either way, these guys better watch out.

Finally, here are the remaining schedules for each team (IND on the left, obviously):

Photo from SI, schedules from ESPN.

Previous "What Are The Odds":
.400
DiMaggio's Streak