A Post-Draft Deadline Look at the Big East

The deadline to declare for the draft was yesterday. There are still a lot of moving parts, since players have until June 16th to withdraw their name from consideration. We can make some reasonable assumptions though- most of of the top prospects have hired agents, and it's unlikely that guys like D.J. Augustin and Russell Westbrook will be returning. A full list of who has declared can be found here.

Since I couldn't care less about the NBA (although I do enjoy the draft), I'm primarily concerned with the guys that are coming back. The notables on this list include Earl Clark, Darren Collison, Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin, Hansbrough, Hasheem Thabeet, Terrence Williams, and Sam Young. The thing that jumped out at me is that the Big East is going to be very, very good next year. They dominate the previous list, and they won't lose as much to graduation as other conferences. A look at some of the top contenders:

Connecticut (20:1 at Sportsbook)
Declared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Nobody

UConn would be getting all kinds of hype if Price hadn't gotten hurt in the first round. They'd be a Sweet 16 team (at least) with almost everybody coming back (Wiggins transferred). As it happened, they're an afterthought with a rehabbing point guard. If Price makes a full recovery, with the ever-improving Thabeet returning, this should be a top 5 team.

Louisville (20:1)
Declared for draft: Derrick Caracter
Graduated: David Padgett, Juan Palacios

They return an excellent backcourt- Williams, Smith, Sosa, and McGee- and Earl Clark returning is huge. They lose a lot more than UConn, but were better to begin with. The big question is whether incoming freshmen Samardo Samuels (#9 on the Rivals 150, an "automatic double/double guy") and Terrence Jennings (#18) can replace the production they are losing inside.

Georgetown (20:1)
Delcared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Jonathan Wallace, Roy Hibbert, Patrick Ewing Jr.

Tough break for the Hoyas last week, as sophomore foward Vernon Macklin announced his intention to transfer. That's a big hit to their frontcourt, which was already going to struggle to replace Hibbert. A lot of Georgetown's success will depend on how good incoming freshman Greg Monroe (6'10", Rivals #8) is.


Pittsburgh (20:1)
Declared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Ronald Ramon, Keith Benjamin, Mike Cook

Sam Young and DeJuan Blair will be very tough inside. The lack of guards may be a problem, with three of their top four graduating (Fields is the fourth). With a potentially dominant combo inside, they won't need the guards to be all-world, but there are some holes to fill. Pitt doesn't look to have any highly touted recruits coming in.

Notre Dame (40:1)
Declared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Rob Kurz

Ugh. I'm still bitter. Kurz is a significant loss inside, but they still have Harangody and Hillesland. Combine them with McAlarney, Tory Jackson and Ryan Ayers on the perimeter, and they might even win a road game. Seriously though, that is a very solid starting five. I just don't know if I can deal with another year of Harangody and Hansbrough being on ESPN three nights a week.

I won't give them their own paragraph, but if McNeal withdraws from the draft, Marquette will be a contender. The same is true for Donte Greene and Syracuse, although it seems unlikely that he would return.

At this point in the year, it usually seems like the quality of play is going to be down, since most of the guys we are familiar with are either graduating or heading to the NBA. With every other conference, I think this holds true, but not with the Big East, which looks to be the strongest conference heading into the upcoming season.

Regional Previews: Midwest

First off- Luke Winn incorporated the home/road splits into a post for his Tourney Blog. His take on it is definitely worth a read. I swear, I have nothing against Vanderbilt- it just so happens that Siena was great on the road, and quite poor at home.

On to the Midwest preview. In the table below, the second column is the chance I think each team has of winning the region. This was done partially by taking Pomeroy's numbers into account, but mostly by my own judgments. The next column is what the odds should be. The third column is the best odds I've found, followed by their location.

Portland St. is 51:1 just to beat Kansas. Why anyone would bet on them to win the entire region is entirely beyond me.

The odds of everyone outside of the top four are really, really bad. USC is a good team. But to get to the Final Four, their four opponents could potentially be Kansas St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, and Kansas. The idea that they have a 1 in 13 chance of beating those four teams is absurd.

I'm a Wisconsin believer. They're 29-4, and have won 23 of their last 25 (both losses coming to Purdue). They are fourth in Pomeroy's ratings. That's probably a little excessive, but I still think 10:1 is quite good. The Sportsbook line is also an outlier- they're no better than 6:1 anywhere else.

I'm higher on Kansas than most. I think they are the best team in the nation- some others agree, but most do not. I would not bet on them at even money to win the region, since I think you could probably get better odds betting on each individual game. But that's not a bad line.

I have it as 90% that Kansas, Georgetown, or Wisconsin emerge from the Midwest. I think that's fair. This is partially because they're really good, but also a product of seeding. They just have it easier than the other than the other teams- that's a privilege they've earned, but a significant advantage nonetheless.

There's no doubt that USC-Kansas St. is a compelling first round matchup. But I would advise against picking either team to beat Wisconsin. First, the Badgers may not have the pro prospects, but they're better than either of those teams. But the main reason is each team's first round matchup. Who's going to win the USC-KSU game? I have no idea. It's about a toss up (USC is favored by 2.5). I'm much more confident that Wisconsin (-11) will take care of CS Fullerton. That's an important thing to keep in mind when filling out your bracket- not just the chance that USC beats Wisconsin, but the relative chances either team has of getting that far.

If Kansas, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Georgetown do end up reaching Detroit, the second weekend will be quite something.

Pick: Kansas
Upset (has to be at least a 6 point underdog): Siena, obviously
Scary team (four seed or lower): Clemson

Related: Bracket Winners and Losers [Basketball Prospectus]

#1 Seed Odds

I tried this a couple weeks ago. Lunardi's top seeds have stayed put, but the percentages have changed substantially.

Memphis, 30-1 (16-0), #3 RPI
If they win their tournament, they're clearly a top seed. If they reach the finals and lose, I can't see them falling. If they lose before the finals, and things break against them (Tennessee and UCLA win their tournaments, in particular), then there's a chance. Maybe. They are in very good shape. Chances of #1 seed: 97%

UCLA, 27-3 (16-2), #6 RPI
We have to take that conference record at face value, even if they needed some serious breaks.
If they win in the quarters against Washington/Cal (90%), it'd be tough to deny them. A loss there, coupled with others taking care of business, could make things interesting. Chances of #1 seed: 94%

North Carolina, 29-2 (14-2), #2 RPI
UNC is 15-0 away from home, which is a difficult factoid to top. They have a great draw, needing only to beat Wake/FSU, and then Va Tech/Miami/NC State to reach the ACC tournament final. The 72% of the time they do that, they should be a 1; their resume is still better than Duke's, plus they were missing Lawson for an extended stretch. I think they should be a lock, but there's a chance they fall. Chances of #1 seed: 87%

Tennessee, 27-3 (14-2), #1 RPI
Winning the SEC tournament (50%) would do it. If they lose, they're asking for trouble- Kansas would likely overtake them if they win the Big 12, and Duke could do the same. Honestly, if they can't beat LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi St. on neutral floors, they really don't deserve it. Chances of #1 seed: 68%

Kansas, 27-3 (13-3), #8 RPI
The first step is to win three games (57%). Their best chance is to sneak ahead of Tennessee (.5*.57=28%). They could surpass one of the other three, but that would require a very strange turn of events. Chances of #1 seed: 36%

Texas, 25-5 (13-3), #5 RPI
Winning the Big 12 (18%) would both give them a boost, and knock out the team directly in front of them. I suppose they could take Tennessee's spot, but I can't see them passing the top three. Chances of #1 seed: 10%

Duke, 26-4 (13-3), #4 RPI
I haven't calculated the ACC numbers yet, but they're around 25% chance to win that tournament. They'd need that to do that, have Kansas and Tennessee lose...and then they'd have to fight it out with Texas. Beating UNC on Saturday night would've been the way to go about this. Chances of #1 seed: 6%

Georgetown, 25-4 (15-3), #7 RPI
The Hoyas are a good example of why you should play real teams in November and December. Playing Memphis was nice, but once they lost that, they assured that they would not have a quality non-con win (Alabama!). That they could go 18-3 against Big East competition and barely even be in the conversation is remarkable. I am including them, but even this might be optimistic. Chances of #1 seed: 2%

Conference Tournament Previews: Big East

Here are the Pomeroy percentages for each team advancing to each round of the Big East tournament, which begins on Wednesday:


The two top contenders are clear. Georgetown and Louisville are the top two Big East teams in the standings, RPI, Pomeroy rating, and conference Pomeroy rating.

After that, it's really a mess. Five more teams will make the tournament- Connecticut, West Virginia, Marquette, Notre Dame, and Pitt- but the order of those first four is anyone's guess. By traditional methods, UConn and Notre Dame are thought of as the next tier. The Huskies have gotten the most press, and have the best RPI of the bunch, but that's mostly a product of winning close games. Notre Dame has the impressive 14-4 Big East record, but unfortunately for them this tournament isn't played in South Bend.

It is Marquette, rather than either of those teams, that Pomeroy gives the third best chance. 15.6% is too high; insanely high, really, considering they don't even have a bye. This happens because the Pomeroy ratings have them as the 11th best team in the country, which is quite unrealistic. The Conference Check numbers give us a better gauge of things- they see UConn, West Virginia, Marquette, and Notre Dame is about equal. Due to a few very tough losses (by one to both Georgetown and Pitt, by two against Tennessee back in November), the Mountaineers have not gotten too much attention, but are capable of making a run.

The following table got a little out of hand. The first (numerical) column is what the odds for each team should be, going strictly by Pomeroy's numbers. Next, I have made some adjustments, mostly based on discrepancies between the Pomeroy ratings and the aforementioned Conference Check numbers, to arrive at what I think the true odds of each team winning the tournament should be. Finally, I list the best odds I've found on each team, and where they can be located.


Louisville doesn't have to be nearly as good as I've made them out to be for their +375 odds at BetUS to be profitable. By any available metric, they are right there with Georgetown. The idea that Georgetown had a 33% chance of winning the tournament, while Louisville is only at 21% (which is what the best available odds imply), is preposterous.

Let's look at Louisville's most difficult possible path- having to play Pittsburgh, then Notre Dame, then Georgetown. Pomeroy has them winning these games by 5.4, 4.1, and 0.1 points, respectively. Those all look about right, and the spreads for those potential games would likely be around there. This gives them a 23.8% chance of winning all three. As previously noted, they have to have a 21% chance of winning the tournament for +375 to be a good bet. So even in the worst case scenario, facing the best possible opponents, it's a good wager.

The unadjusted Pomeroy numbers think Marquette is a great look at +1200, but that's working under the assumption that they're the 11th best team in the country, which is false. Not having a bye isn't the end of the world, since they will likely beat Seton Hall pretty easily. But it does mean that winning the tournament would require playing four games in four days, which is not taken into account by the Pomeroy odds. I've tried to factor this in with the "True Odds", although it's obviously an inexact science. The Marquette odds are the second best available, but that's probably about the same as betting on them game-by-game.

Nothing else is very good. As usual, the longshots are atrocious. Even Notre Dame at +550 is ugly; their likely path of Marquette, Louisville, and Georgetown is very tough.

Related: Conference Tourney Mini-Previews: Big East [Rush the Court]

Friday Bracketology

It is a good thing Gary Parrish updated his bracket, because Lunardi hasn't. It says there's supposed to be an update today; hopefully there will be before I have to leave for the airport.

Xavier is down to a 4. Since when do you lose on the road to a bubble team and drop two lines? They should be flip-flopped with Notre Dame. You know what ND's best road win is? Villa-"8-9 in the Big East"-nova. Second best would be Seton Hall, I guess. Meanwhile, Xavier is 6-2 on the road in the A-10, with wins against UMass, Rhode Island, and Dayton. They also beat Indiana by 15 on a neutral floor. I find this to be completely unreasonable. Xavier really does need to get Lavender healthy, though. His ankle is far from 100%.

Louisville is finally up to a 3. They play @Georgetown tomorrow at noon. I would think that the winner of that game will be on the second line on Monday (the Hoyas are currently a 2).

There's a basketball game in Durham tomorrow night, apparently. It might even be on TV. The winner of that one has to be a 1. If Duke goes 14-2 in the ACC, including a sweep of UNC, they have to be a top seed. They were also 12-1 against the 35th most difficult non-conference schedule in the country, and that one loss came in OT on a 3 at the buzzer.

It doesn't really matter, but UNC has a great draw in this bracket. The 2-4 seeds in their region are Georgetown, Stanford, and Butler (Hibbert vs. the Lopez brothers on the second weekend would be fun, wouldn't it). Unless Carolina has to face a tough 8/9, that's pretty much a free pass to the Elite 8. And once there, their opponent cannot compare with some of the other 2/3 seeds like Kansas, Louisville and Duke.

I have a flight to Chicago in a bit, but if Lunardi updates his bracket soon I will likely write about that as well.

Update: Lunardi has updated his.

His top two lines are the same as Parrish, except for one- Lunardi has Wisconsin as a 2, while Parrish has Georgetown. I have no problem with this, and Georgetown has the opportunity to prove themselves tomorrow against Louisville. I do wonder how much Wisconsin's easy B10 schedule plays into this.

Xavier is a 3, and Notre Dame is a 4. So at least somebody is paying attention.

There is some disagreement on Butler. They are a 6 in Lunardi's a 4 for Parrish. Their #18 RPI splits the difference. Their #35 Pomeroy rank does not. They'll be overseeded regardless, but I'd go with 5 for now.

UConn is the opposite; 6th for Parrish, 4th for Lunardi. I am not a big fan of this team, but a 12-5 BE record, plus a win @Indiana, and their only non-con losses coming against Memphis and Gonzaga, deserves higher than a 6.

Final Four Odds

Sportsbook has posted Final Four odds for 25 teams (H/T: Rob). Before the brackets come out, it is very difficult to handicap this kind of thing, because a team's chances are so dependent on both their seed and their draw. That is not going to stop me from trying, obviously.

The first column is the team's projected seed. These are mostly just taken from Parrish, but I made a few slight adjustments. That is followed by the team name, and their odds at Sportsbook. The last two columns are what I think their true chance of making the F4 is, along with what their odds should be in that case.

Odds I consider to be very good wagers are in green. Good wagers are in blue, and terrible wagers are in red. The black odds range from neutral to poor. Here is the first half:

Memphis being +200 really surprised me. They are almost certainly going to be a 1 seed, meaning they have a pretty easy path to the S16 (giving them about an 80% chance of making it that far). They will then be significant favorites against the 4/5 seed they will likely play, and again favorites in the Elite 8. Clearly Sportsbook has UCLA, UNC and Kansas as the top 3 teams in the country, and I don't disagree with that assessment. But I don't think Memphis is that far behind, and they will likely have seeding on their side.

Seeding plays an very big role in this. I know they don't have the reputation of Duke or Texas, but Xavier is just as good as those teams, and they will likely all be 2 seeds- there should not be such a large discrepancy in their odds.

Stanford is in a similar situation, except it is likely that they will have a 3 seed rather than a 2. That makes them not quite as attractive as Xavier, but at +650, it's still worth considering.

No 3 seed should be +300. You know I must feel that way if I have Louisville at +344. The four games you have to win are just too difficult. Assuming you get past the 14, you still have to beat a 6, a 2, and a 1, in theory. Except for the elite teams in the nation, nobody has better than a 25% chance of doing that. And Georgetown does not fall under the category of "elite team" this year.

UConn, a likely 4/5 seed, at +400 is even worse. They will play a 4/5 in the second round, and then the top two seeds after that. A 20% chance of winning those three games? Not even close.

On to the longshots:

Most of these are terrible. The Arizona and Kansas St. odds are particularly brutal. These are teams that will likely end up in 8-9 games, where their chances are barely better than a toss-up. Then, in the second round, they face a top seed. Kansas St. should be about +800 to reach the Sweet 16, not the F4.

Wisconsin at +800 is intriguing. They are a 3 seed, and a legit one at that. Barring a huge upset, they are going to finish 16-2 in the Big Ten. I know the B10 isn't very good this year, but unless you think it is really atrocious, the conference's best team at 8:1 to reach the F4 seems pretty good.

The odds for Marquette and Purdue are probably about right, but stick out because the others are so bad. I do not think Sportsbook gave seeding enough weight in their analysis. It is completely unreasonable for an 8 seed to have better odds than a 3, unless that 8 seed is about 15 points better, which is certainly not the case with Arizona and Purdue. It is highly unlikely that the Boilermakers lose their first round game against a 14. Taking that into account, you are getting about 18:1 that they will beat a 6 seed that is probably equally talented, and then two teams that are better than them. It's unlikely, but +2200 is not bad for them.

P.S.- 15 of you have voted on the Indians' under? I hope you guys aren't betting on this stuff, because you *clearly* don't know what you are talking about.

How Good Is Georgetown?

The Georgetown Hoyas are currently ranked ninth in both the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls. They are ranked this high strictly because they reached the Final Four last year, allowing to be ranked fifth in the preseason polls, and have only lost twice since.

It's reasonable for teams to be high in the rankings because of success in a prior year. But the fact that they made the Final Four doesn't mean Georgetown was one of the four best teams in the country last year. They were a 2 seed, which indicates that they were not; in fact, they probably weren't in the top 5, with UCLA ahead of them.

The Hoyas weren't exactly dominant leading up to the Final Four, either. They were one Jeff Green traveling call away from a Sweet 16 exit against Vandy. And they needed a 16-6 run at the end of the Carolina game to send it into overtime. Not to take anything away from them- these were both fantastic wins- but their preseason ranking would have been a lot different if a couple breaks had gone against them.

Georgetown only lost one key player from last year's team, Jeff Green. This made it somewhat difficult to gauge the strength of the returning squad. If both Green and Hibbert had come back, they'd likely have been the preseason #1. If they'd both left, they would've found themselves in the lower half of the Top 25. But with one staying and the other going, it was really hard to know.

Which brings us to what they've done so far this season. 15-2 is a nice looking record, but there's really not that much substance to it. They've played two quality opponents on the road, losing to Memphis by 14 and Pitt by nine. In their other two Big East road games they beat Rutgers by 12, and DePaul by 16.

Their most impressive performance to date is probably an 84-65 win over Notre Dame at home. They've also beaten UConn and Syracuse at the Verizon Center, but both of those games were close (UConn by 3, Syracuse by 2 in OT). They haven't yet beaten a ranked team, for whatever that's worth.

Point being, I really don't think Georgetown has proven anything yet. They weren't that good last year, and they lost their best player. They've lost their two big tests so far, and haven't won a road game against a team with a Top 100 RPI. They're only ranked in the top 10 because they started the year there.

On Saturday the Hoyas play at West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been unimpressive on the road, but at home they have beaten Duquesne, Marquette and Syracuse by 24, 15, and 20 points, respectively. It will be very interesting to see what the point spread is for that one- I wouldn't be surprised to see the line close to even, with West Virginia possibly being favored.

Photo: Rush the Court.