Futures Watch: Week 14

This week:

Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 45-38
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 49.6%
Tampa Bay, 12:1 (BetUS)
+220 to win the AL East (VIP)
Current Record: 51-32
PECOTA: 92.1%

The statistics above do not reflect today's events.

Does this mean I'm going to have to do series previews every week? I hope not.

The home team is now 12-0 in this year's Rays-Red Sox games. That is a nice little stat which will inevitably get blown out of proportion when they meet again in September. Some even thought it was important enough to make Boston a "contrarian" pick on Wednesday. They were wrong.

By the way, I would imagine it's quite rare to get a team that's five up in the loss column at +220 to win the division. Although if you haven't gotten on board by now, you're probably not in agreement with PECOTA's forecast anyway.

They Rays now have an off day before hosting the Royals for four; the Red Sox are heading to New York for a four game series beginning on Thursday. So that presents another opportunity for the Rays to increase their current 3.85 game lead.

This week's results in Anaheim were not nearly as encouraging, but that probably shouldn't come as much of a surprise, given the location. If the A's can survive four games this weekend in Chicago, they have a chance to make up some ground next week, as they host Seattle and Los Angeles before the break.

San Francisco, 300:1 (5Dimes)
Current record: 37-47
PECOTA: 4.6%

This isn't how it was supposed to be. The Giants' offense was supposed to score three runs a game, and Lincecum and Cain were going to combine for a 2.75 ERA, and an 11-25 W-L record.

Instead, they're "only" third to last in the NL in both scoring and OPS+. With the exception of shortstop, they haven't suffered any major injuries, and everyone has performed at or above expectations. They're on pace to beat their PECOTA projection of 634 RS by only 20 runs, but that's with scoring down almost 7% across the board in the NL.

The real winners in this--assuming they don't win the division, which would really just be embarrassing for everyone involved--may be Lincecum. He's been as good as advertised, with a 2.38 ERA and 9.4 K/9. Somewhat shockingly, he's gotten an above average amount of run support, at 5.1 R/G. That has allowed him to start 9-1, and he's currently a close third in Cy Young Predictor. It's going to be an uphill climb, but could end up being an intriguing storyline in the second half.

Oh, and unless you really believe the playoffs are a crapshoot, I wouldn't bet on them just yet. Although their rotation would set up quite nicely in October. I must admit, I hadn't thought about that possibility until just now.

Breaking Down The Wagerline Numbers

I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at some of the baseball betting trends over the first two months of the season. Using data from Wagerline, I went back and collected the line for each game in April and May, as well as the percentage of people that bet on each side.

This first chart is simply the average percentage of the action each team has gotten thus far this season:



The Red Sox have been very popular, while the Giants have not. It's no coincidence that the better teams have higher percentages. Even after considering the reduced payout, people generally prefer to bet on favorites. So far this year, according to Wagerline, the average favorite has received 56.5% of the action. That percentage rises as the line gets higher:

When evaluating how popular each team has been among the betting public, we need to take this into account. To do this, I looked at the data so far this year and figured out the expected percentage for each line. Using this, we can figure out the average percentage we should expect for each team based solely on their average line, and compare it to their actual average percentage. This allows us to isolate the popularity of the team from the public's tendency towards favorites.

Here are the teams that have gotten more action than we'd expect from their lines:

For evaluating individual teams, I think this is a lot more meaningful. As I previously theorized, there is a large gap between the public perception of the Cardinals and their lines. Part of this probably existed prior to the season, but their 19-11 start has a lot to do with it as well. This significantly changed how the public looked at St. Louis, but I doubt it had much of an effect on the lines.

The same is true, but to a lesser extent, with the Marlins. The rest of the teams are just generally very popular.

Here is the other end of the spectrum:

Note the gap between the top two. People really don't like betting on the Giants. Here is the breakdown by starting pitcher:

The books seem to respect Cain nearly as much as Lincecum (this can be seen in the similar "Ex %" columns, which mean that their lines have been comparable), but this clearly isn't true for the general public. Cain's 7-16 record last year probably contributed to this, as did his 0-2, 6.44 ERA start this year.

People have avoided Zito, but that's mostly been caused by the lopsided lines, and San Francisco's general incompetence. His gap will probably increase going forward-- it's been 7.5% over his last three starts-- as he's pretty clearly undervalued at this point.

The rest of this list is filled with generally poor teams, with two exceptions-- the Rays and Brewers. It's no coincidence that these are two teams I've talked about way too much in Futures Watch. Both teams have been undervalued so far this year. For the Rays, it's because of their sudden rise; they've already won more than half as many games as their franchise record. Milwaukee's large difference is probably caused by their slow start, although it may not last, as they've now won six of seven.

This Week's Links (2/18-2/22)

The St. Louis under won, 39-14 (74%). Arizona is up now; we're going alphabetically the rest of the way.

Baseball Prospectus 2008 comes out on Monday. Probably the best $13.17 you'll spend this year. Unless Xavier (80:1 at BetUS) wins it all.

Very old, but this Russell Westbrook dunk against Cal was absolutely filthy.

Baseball Musings predicts how many R/G each team will score in '08. A commenter alertly notes, "Looks like another long year for Matt Cain."

STF interviews SI's Luke Winn.

Ozzie Guillen, being awesome:

‘’Then if you’re a nice guy, they are going to treat you the same way. [Expletive] it, be an ####### then. I would rather be an ####### winning than be a nice guy [expletive] losing. Give me an ####### who can win, don’t give me a nice guy who can [expletive] lose.’"

ESPN jumped the gun on the UAB-Memphis game. How does that happen? Is it really so difficult to wait two minutes?

Silver adjusts PECOTA for strength of schedule. Seattle's prediction descends even lower. 85 wins. Right.

With Leather was on the foxnews.com front page. Also from WL:

"Seriously, if I said that Raul Ibanez could run down a routine fly ball, I'd punch myself in the face, because I'd be lying."

Derek Jeter: a below average fielder!? Man, what are they smoking down at Penn?

This Week's Links (2/11-2/15)

Mr. I: "If there was ever a Douchebag Smurf, this is what he would've looked like."

Guesses on the lines for tomorrow's college basketball games.

More projected standings, this time using CHONE. 89 wins for the Rays?

Pomeroy:

Louisville probably won't win the Big East regular season title, but don't let that fool you. They're the best team in the conference.

A very flattering picture of Josh Beckett.

YouTube was forced to delete all the Berman videos. Deadspin wasn't.

NL Spring Training previews from Sheehan: East, Central, West. On the Giants:

Winter grade: F
They took a 71-91 team and replaced its best position player with a guy coming off a career year who’s had two above-average seasons in his life. For $60 million. Good luck with that.
One move to make: Release half the roster. And the general manager.

Indeed.

This Week's Links (2/4-2/8)

Bob Knight stepped down.

The FJM guys reveal their identities; Ken Tremendous is a writer for "The Office".

The Giants are not going to score many runs this year.

The Rays actually sent David Pinto a letter asking him to stop using "Devil", and fining him for doing so.

Sheehan's AL Spring Training previews; East (subscriber-only), Central (free), West (free). He is not optimistic about the Tribe.

Giants fans express their feelings towards Tiki.

Rafael Betancourt really was incredible last year.

Opening Super Bowl Line

There was about $90 million wagered in Nevada on the Super Bowl last year, which means there was something like $10 billion bet on it worldwide. That is greater than the GDP of 73 countries.

As expected, Pinnacle set the initial line at New England -14, and the over/under at 55. The early money has clearly been coming in on the Giants, as the line is now down to 13, and could drop to 12.5 in the near future. The Under is getting a lot of action as well, and is currently at 54.

The New England money line is -480, and the Giants are +440, putting the Pats at 81.7% to win. Apparently there is always a lot of action on the underdog's money line in the Super Bowl, which makes sense, as people look at their momentum, saying they're a "team of destiny" and such. It'll be interesting to see if the NYG line moves down from +440 in the next couple weeks.

Edit: Down to 12.5. The Giants were getting most of the action at 13. The Pinnacle lines are now this:

NYG +12.5 -110
NE -12.5 +102

And Matchbook has it at:

NYG +12.5 -108
NE -12.5 +106

So it looks like a move to 12 may be coming.

I Refuse To Believe This

From FanHouse:

"The Giants, who are desperately seeking offense, have inquired about Yankees outfielder Hideki Matsui's availability. Matsui has a no-trade clause, so if there's a match there, the Yankees first would have to get his approval.

The Giants have a lot of good young pitchers whose names have come up in trades, with Matt CainTim Lincecum at the top of the list, followed by Noah Lowry and Jonathan Sanchez. The Yankees, who have said they are out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes, would still like to upgrade their pitching staff."

I understand we don't know if the Giants have offered Cain or Lincecum for Matsui yet, or if they will at all. But if they have, Brian Sabean should immediately be fired.

Hideki Matsui has two years left on his contract, at $13MM per year. Matt Cain is signed for the next three years, for a total of $7.6MM, with a $6.25MM team option for 2011.

This is a very rough way of comparing players, but Matt Cain's career ERA+ is 119. Matsui's career OPS+ is 125. So they're both very good.

Except Matt Cain is ten years younger. This would be a higher profile, much dumber version of the Milledge trade.

(I could go through the exact same thing with Lincecum, but let's just say he had a 3.59 fielding independent ERA at the age of 23 this year, and is probably going to cost less over the next five years than Matsui will over the next two.)

LA Teams Early Favorites for A-Rod

A couple days ago Bodog posted lines on "What team will Alex Rodriguez be playing for on Opening Day '08?" I was going to dedicate a post to these, but Leitch beat me to it. Over at BP, Nate Silver had an Unfiltered post ranking all 30 teams' chances of landing A-Rod. The Bodog odds aren't even up anymore, but I thought it would be interesting to compare these two lists.


So it seems like the Angels and Dodgers are clearly the frontrunners. But after that? It's pretty unclear. The is a huge disconnect between what Bodog and Silver think about the Cubs' and Yankees' chances. The Yankees' odds are always wrong, but what about Chicago? Here's Silver's reasoning:

"The sale of the club is likely to take longer than expected, as there are rumors that the Tribune’s deal with Sam Zell is in question, and as they look for non-Mark Cuban suitors to compete with John Canning’s bid. They’d also have to be willing to commit to A-Rod at shortstop for at least several seasons because of Aramis Ramirez’ contract. I’d be shocked if he signs here."

Seems reasonable enough to me. The other big difference is the Giants:

"San Francisco fans are notoriously tolerant, they could use any offensive help they can get, and Barry Bonds’ departure leaves some cash in their wallets. But this team is probably not going to the playoffs with or without A-Rod, so this is the fallback alternative if the contending clubs don’t bite."

Trying to combine the relevant information from these two lists, here's mine:

1. LAA
2. LAD (Torre helps, I guess)
3. PHI (think about that infield)
4. SFG (what's the point?)
5. DET (I really hope not)
6. CHW (Kenny Williams is an unpredictable dude)
7. NYM (I can't see it, but this is what I'm rooting for)
8. HOU (puts them in contention in that division)
9. STL
10. CHC

Sorry, two A-Rod posts in a row. Next week I'm gonna try to look at some of the *other* FAs, and their likely destinations. That, or maybe just write 1500 words on how much I hate Marketing. We shall see.

The Giants Are Screwed

When I heard yesterday that Bonds won't be coming back to the Giants next year, my initial thought was "Wow, sucks for Matt Cain, he's gonna get even less run support."

But as I thought about it a little more, I realized this situation (obviously) is a lot bigger than Matt Cain's W-L record. The Giants' offense is pretty bad this year, even with Bonds. Here are the ages and VORPs of the Giants' most common lineup:

Not only is this offense terrible, they're all old. The only guy under 32 is Frandsen, and he's just not very good. At 4.14 R/G, they are second to last in the NL.

It gets worse though. The Giants have actually been really good with runners in scoring position this year- substantially better than in other situations. Here's the breakdown:


Overall, the Giants have hit .250/.318/.383. It's extremely unlikely that they will be this clutch(/lucky) again next year. They have actually scored 633 runs, but a team with that line would only be expected to score 573 to this point, and 607 in a full season.

And all of this is with Bonds. If the Giants replace Bonds with a player as good as their second best offensive player (Winn, 19.1 VORP), they'll lose 37 runs next year. Take that way from 607, and you have a 570-run team- 3.52 runs per game. To put that in context, the Nationals are last in the NL this year with 4.10 R/G. And in the last 10 years, the worst NL offense has been the 2003 Dodgers, who averaged 3.54 R/G.

Of course, this is all assuming that the Giants don't add anybody, which is unlikely. But Brian Sabean better get on that and acquire some legit hitters, because if he doesn't San Francisco is going to have a historically bad offense in 2008.

Picture: Deadspin

Profile: Matt Cain

These profiles will theoretically run every Monday, on a player whose talents are overlooked. If you have a suggestion for a profile, please e-mail me at VegasWatch@gmail.com.

There are two “problems” with Matt Cain.

The first is that he has a record of 6-13 this year.

The other is when you think of the Giants (which is not often, as they’re in last place), you think of Bonds. When you think of a Giants pitcher, Barry Zito comes to mind. When you think “young Giants pitcher”, Tim Lincecum fills that void. Because of this, Cain goes largely unnoticed.

Quite obviously, none of these things are Matt Cain’s fault. Among things he can control, he’s doing pretty well for himself- he’s actually younger than Lincecum (he doesn’t turn 23 until October!), and his 3.67 ERA is lower than the ERAs of both Carlos Zambrano and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

People paid attention in 2005, when Cain was called up in late August and went had a 2.33 ERA in seven starts at the age of 20. But, as often happens (Felix Hernandez has flown under the radar since this game; Scott Kazmir is pretty quietly having fantastic year), people find the next phenom, are briefly excited, and then move on. Despite this, Matt Cain has improved each year since ’05 and remains on the short list of the best young pitchers in baseball.

As a senior at Houston High School in Germantown, TN in 2002, Matt Cain struck out 83 and allowed only 28 hits in 62 innings, winning Tennessee’s Gatorate High School Player of the Year award. That summer, the San Francisco Giants used the 25^th pick in the amateur draft to take 17-year old Cain, and gave him a $1.375M signing bonus.

Minors

The Giants sent Cain to the Arizona league for the rest of ’02, where they were very cautions with him. He made seven starts, but pitched at total of just 19.1 innings. As one would expect of a top pick straight out of HS, he both walked a lot of guys (11), and had his share of strikeouts (20). He ended up 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA, which is pretty impressive considering his age.

Cain spent the 2003 season at Hagerstown (A). In 74 innings (14 starts), he was brilliant, with 90 Ks, only 24 BBs, and a 2.55 ERA. He allowed only 57 hits and five home runs, and was probably on track to get promoted. But his season was cut short with a stress fracture in his elbow. Despite missing so much time, Baseball America listed Cain as the 91^st best prospect in baseball prior to the ’04 season.

He returned from the injury the following year and didn’t miss a beat. Still just 19, he was brilliant with San Jose (high A). The most impressive part was his improved control. It’s not like Cain had been wild previously- his 2.9 BB/9 with Hagerstown was impressive. But he lowered that substantially, walking only 17 batters in 72.2 innings (2.1 BB/9). He kept the home runs down (0.62 HR/9), and the strikeouts up (11.0 K/9). After going 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA with San Jose he was promoted.

Moving from A to AA is a big jump, especially for a 19 year old, and it showed in Cain’s performance. It’s not like he was bad- he went 6-4 with a 3.35 ERA in 15 starts with Norwich. Over 86 innings, he only allowed 73 hits and seven home runs. What was disappointing about his stint with Norwich was that his K/BB ratio went from 5.2 to 1.8. This was a product partially of his K rate decreasing (he struck out 72), but mostly caused by the fact that his walk rate doubled, from 2.1 to 4.2 BB/9. This is a trend that would continue as he ascended up to the big club.

On the strength of his dominance at San Jose, and the fact that he pitched very effectively in AA at the age of 19, Cain started to get some serious acclaim prior to the start of the 2005 season. Baseball America moved him all the way up to 13^th on their Top 100, and #1 in the Giants’ organization. His curve was rated as the best in the Giants’ system. From the 2005 edition of Baseball Prospectus:

“His fastball blazes at 95 and moves to both sides of the plate, and he can throw his huge, sweeping curve for knee-buckling strikes in any count. His circle-change needs work, and we'll want to see the Giants monitor his workload after an elbow stress fracture cost him half of '03. Still, Cain's developed a more fluid delivery that has observers bullish about him staying healthy.”

Cain pitched at Fresno (AAA) to begin the ’05 season, which is a tough environment for pitchers. He did allow a lot of homers (22 in 145.2 innings), but also had an incredible 176 strikeouts. Cain had his highest walk rate (4.5 BB/9) since he was 17. Still, he went 10-5 with a 4.39 ERA in AAA at the age of 20. And on August 29, the Giants decided he was ready.

Majors

As you may remember, Matt Cain was fantastic after getting called up, going 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in seven starts. Which is great, except he wasn’t really that good. First of all, he a psychotically low .166 BABiP, which is well over 100 points below the league average. Beyond that, he stranded 83% of runners on base, which is about 10% above his current career average. Nothing against Cain- he was getting major league hitters out at the age of 20- but his ERA should have been about two runs higher. It should be noted that the Giants were very careful with him, never allowing him to throw more than 107 pitches.

For what it’s worth, Cain was still considered a “prospect” after the ’05 season, and moved up to 11^th on BA’s Top 100, while still ranking as #1 in the Giants’ system (amazingly, the Giants’ top prospect has been a RHP every year since 1997).

Last season was when Cain stopped getting a lot of attention. I don’t know that people fully appreciate how impressive it is when a 21 year old throws 190.2 innings at the major league level. Since 1901, a pitcher of that age or younger has thrown 190 innings with an ERA better than league average only 89 times. In the last ten years, only Cain and C.C. Sabathia have done this.

Also impressive is that Cain struck out 179 hitters in 2006, the 25^th most ever for a pitcher 21 or under (#20 on that list is even more striking). He finished the year 13-12, and received only one second place and one third place vote for Rookie of the Year, as Hanley Ramirez edged out Ryan Zimmerman for the award.

In March, the Giants rewarded Cain with a 4 year, $9MM extension, with a $6.25MM club option for 2011.

This year, Cain has once again been impressive. Unfortunately, he’s 6-13, because the Giants haven’t scored for him. Of 98 pitchers who have thrown 120 innings this year, Cain is 96^th in run support.

Baseball Prospectus has a stat called “Luck”. It measures the difference what a pitchers W-L record should be, given their ERA and number of innings pitched, and what it actually is. Here are this year’s unluckiest pitchers (min. 120 IP):

Cain has been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball this year, and it isn’t close. Rather than 6-13, he should be about 11-8 if the Giants offense wasn’t so pathetic. (Side note: The luckiest pitcher this year has been Seattle's Horacio Ramirez, who is 8-4 with a 7.15 ERA. That is absolutely amazing.)

Ignoring Brian Sabean’s incompetence, Cain has made some important strides forward this year. He has gone from allowing 0.84 HR/9 in his first two years to 0.55 this year. This is no accident, as Cain is allowing less fly balls. Here are his FB (in blue), GB (in green), and LD (in red) rates over his three-year career:

All very promising trends. He has also cut his walk rate, from 4.1 BB/9 to 3.9, while going deeper into games- he averaged 6.15 IP last year, this year that number is up to 6.57. These improvements have helped offset Cain’s decreased K rate (8.4 K/9 last year, 7.0 this year), and allow his FIP (Fielding Independent ERA) to decrease for the second straight year:

Not bad.

What Cain has done by the age of 22 is not something that happens very often. Since 1901, only six pitchers have had a K/9 of over 7.5 while making at least 70 starts by the age of 22. If he makes six more starts this year, Matt Cain will add himself to the following list.

I put the average in bold because it’s completely insane. Frank Tanana had the highest career ERA of these guys, at 3.66. Dwight Gooden’s 194 career wins comes in 5^th out of 6. What Matt Cain has done by the age of 22 is truly remarkable, and he looks like he’ll be a frontline starter for years to come.

Last week's profile: Erik Bedard
Profile Archive

Thanks to Baseball Musings, We Rite Goode, Bugs & Cranks, THT, Larry Brown Sports, WL, AA, and Deadspin for the links to the Bedard profile last week.

Pictures taken from the Giants website, Yardbarker, the Las Vegas Sun, here, and Minor League News. Stats taken from The Baseball Cube, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and the BR Play Index.

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Matt Cain's Career Statistics