Pre-Preseason College Hoops Top 10

There is a lot of information to go through here, so I thought I'd try to compile some of it, as well as add my own opinions. Among the various resources used for this were Katz's top 25, Lunardi's Bracketology, Pomeroy's site, Rivals' Prospect Rankings, and Wikipedia (always). The futures lines were gathered from Bodog, BetUS, Carib, and Sportsbook.

1. North Carolina (4.5-1, BetUS)
Katz #1, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 36-3 (14-2), Pomeroy #4. Lost to Kansas in the national semifinal.

Sophomore forward Alex Stepheson is transferring, to some school out west (he hasn't decided). I think the Tar Heels will survive the loss.

Since 2000, four teams have gotten at least 80% of the preseason first place votes in both the AP and ESPN polls, as I'm assuming UNC will. Two of those teams--'06-'07 Florida, and '03-04 UConn--won the title. The other two--'05-06 Duke, and '01-'02 Duke--lost in the Sweet 16. I don't know what that means, other than "Dook is teh suck" but it's interesting.

Carib currently has the Tar Heels at +250 to win the title, which is pretty absurd. What this ends up doing is putting a lot of value in some of the other teams, as you'll see below.

2. UCLA (18-1 at Carib)
Katz #3, Lunardi #2 seed
Last year: 35-4 (16-2), Pomeroy #3. Lost to Memphis in the national semifinal.

Give it up for Ben Howland, everybody. Losing two top 10 picks and still being this loaded is a neat trick. The incoming class, led by Jrue (pronounced Drew) Holiday, is supposed to be the best in the country. Add that to Collison, Shipp, and Aboya, and the pieces are in place for a fourth straight Final Four, which would be an astonishing accomplishment in this day and age.

The Bruins are getting some bonus points here for Howland. You don't have Defensive Efficiencies rankings of 3, 2, and 3 over a three-year stretch by accident. It's too bad, for both team and player, that Mbah a Moute's decided to stay in the draft. He could've been a solid contributor, and might end up going undrafted.

18-1 may be the best value on the board. Even if you don't agree with them at #2, it'd be hard to argue that they're not the second most likely team to get a #1 seed, given the relative weakness of their conference.

3. Pittsburgh (22-1, The Greek)
Katz #2, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 27-10 (10-8), Pomeroy #21. Lost to Michigan St. in the second round.

Well, I suppose they're the heavy favorite to win the Big East tournament at the moment.

Katz mentioned that Mike Cook may get a medical redshirt and be allowed to return for another year. That'd be big, since they're already set inside with Young and Blair, and at the point with Fields. It's tough to place them with that unknown, but I suppose that's why you don't rank teams in June.

22-1 isn't bad. The problem is this conference, which is going to be outrageously good. Four teams may end up deserving top two seeds, but that doesn't mean they'll all get them. For that reason, I don't know that I could pull the trigger on any of these Big East futures.

4. Duke (15-1, Carib)
Katz #6, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 28-6 (13-3), Pomeroy #8. Lost to West Virginia in the second round.

Considering they have six of their seven top contributors returning, you'd think it would be fairly easy to gauge how good this team is, but I have no idea. By the end of last year, they were much better than the public perception (no mystique!), but worse than their lofty Pomeroy rank. Problem is, that leaves a pretty big gap.

They lose Nelson, but their best recruit is 6'4 "slashing lefty" Elliot Williams, who sounds like an ideal replacement. Although that doesn't help their apparent weakness down low--I don't know if you've heard, but Duke lacked an "inside presence" last year.

I do know I wouldn't take them at 15:1.

5. Connecticut (20-1, Carib)
Katz #15, Lunardi #2 seed
Last year: 24-9 (13-5), Pomeroy #22. Lost to San Diego in the first round.

I was quite surprised to see that Katz has UConn so low. It sounds like they lose Stanley Robinson (Winn says he's "on the brink of academic ineligibility), which would be unfortunate. I really think a lot of the pessimism is caused by their weak finish last year, losing four of their last seven. But that included a two-point loss at Villanova, losing to a very good West Virginia team in the BE tournament, and losing to San Diego in OT without their point guard in the NCAAs. If, on February 20th, you would've told people that Thabeet was coming back, they would've been talking the Huskies up as preseason #1.

One thing UConn could stand to improve is their perimeter defense. With Thabeet inside, they held opponents to 40.4% from 2 (second in the country), but allowed 34.9% from 3 (153rd). Maybe the addition of Rice guard Kemba Walker (Rivals #14) will help in that regard.

6. Louisville (20-1, Carib)
Katz #5, Lunardi #3 seed
Last year: 27-9 (14-4), Pomeroy #6. Lost to North Carolina in the Elite 8.

They lose a lot of bigs--Padgett, Caracter, and Palacios--but are seemingly prepared for that with two Rivals top 20 recruits, 6'9" Samardo Samuels and 6'10" Terrence Jennings, incoming. The backcourt will be very strong, as they have everybody coming back. Earl Clark should make a big impact after electing to return, rather than entering the draft as a likely first round pick.

Maybe a couple guys will get hurt, they'll lose a bunch of games in November and December, and be undervalued for three months. That'd be fun.

7. Memphis (25-1, Carib)
Katz #7, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 38-2 (16-0), Pomeroy #2. Lost to Kansas in the national championship.

Like Duke, Memphis is tough to gauge, but for entirely different reasons. We know exactly how good they were last year--second best team in the country. But without Rose, CDR, and Dorsey though, that's not all that helpful.

Anderson, Dozier, Taggart, and Kemp return, joined by 6'5" guard, and Rivals #6 prospect, Tyreke Evans, and two more top 50 recruits. It's not clear how good the returning guys are, because they were only complimentary pieces last year, and recruits are always hard to value. So I'll play it safe and go with Katz here.

8. Texas (30-1, Carib)
Katz #13, Lunardi #3 seed
Last year: 31-7 (13-3), Pomeroy #9. Lost to Memphis in the Elite 8.

They would've been #2 if Augustin had come back, without a doubt.

Mercifully for all parties, Abrams is returning after considering going pro. Mason will take over at the point, which will clearly be a dropoff, although who knows how much. After a breakout 2008, Atchley returns for his senior season. This is a very strong team, which could contend for the title if Mason turns out to be a capable full-time point.

9. Gonzaga (50-1, BetUS)
Katz #9, Lunardi #4 seed
Last year: 25-8 (13-1), Pomeroy #30. Lost to Davidson in the first round.

That first round exit isn't looking so bad now, is it?

The Bulldogs got great news last week, when Pargo announced he'd return to school for his senior year. He returns to a pretty stacked team--a full year from Heytvelt, and everyone else except Pendergraft returning. If they're going to contend for a title, this is their year, as they'll lose (at least) Pargo, Heytvelt, and Downs after this season.

Probably because of their first round loss (and Heytvelt missing time), Gonzaga at 50-1 looks to be the second best value available here.

10. Notre Dame (50-1, Carib)
Katz #4, Lunardi #2 seed
Last year: 25-8 (14-4), Pomeroy #28. Lost to Washington St. in the second round.

They have a very good team coming back, but the defense is still a huge question mark. Notre Dame's Defensive Efficiency rankings over the last three years have been 120th, 49th, and 42nd, respectively. With the same personnel and coach as last year, I have a hard time putting them much higher than this. Should be a fantastic offense, though.

Carib seems to have the same reservations (defense, strong conference) about this team that I do, as their odds are a real outlier among Katz's rankings. If you think they're the fourth best team in the country, it's certainly worth it. Here, it's probably not.

Photo: NCAA.org.

Blogpoll: Week Thirteen

The full blogpoll is here, my ballot was as follows.

I didn't watch any of the game tonight- I was in the library studying Corporate Finance. I see that Lawson didn't play, and the combined 7/34 shooting of Ginyard, Ellington and Green didn't help matters. Scheyer got six rebounds? That's interesting. Looks like Duke's 39-9 advantage from beyond the arch more than made up for UNC's dominance inside. I don't think people will ever stop saying "Duke has no inside presence"; we'll see how far they can advance despite that.

Drake just keeps on winning. They're up to 20 in a row after coming back to win at Indiana St. last night. The Valley is down a little this year, but starting off 6-0 on the road is difficult no matter what conference you play in. They've now got another big road test on their schedule, as they'll visit Butler on February 23 as part of BracketBusters weekend.

As detailed over at RTC, the Gonzaga-St. Mary's game was pretty incredible on Monday night. Pargo and Mills really took over down the stretch, and St. Mary's got pretty much every call in an extremely hostile (and dark) environment. The Gaels are at Santa Clara next Monday, and their next real test after that will come against Kent St. in another BracketBuster game.

Notre Dame was very impressive tonight (not that I saw the game, but they did win by 26) on the road against Seton Hall. They're starting to shed their reputation of a poor road team- they also won @Villanova a couple weeks ago. They host Marquette on Saturday (a game they really should win), and then play @UConn next week- that should be an excellent game.

Purdue makes their first appearance on my ballot this week. They've started off 9-1 in the Big 10, but now their schedule really gets tough. Their next four games are at Wisconsin, vs. MSU, at Northwestern, and at Indiana. You'd have to consider a split of those four games (so, really, beating Northwestern and winning one of the other three) a success. If they do that, they could very realistically finish 14-4 in the Big Ten, which is almost shockingly good.

Blogpoll: Week Eleven

The full blogpoll is here, my ballot was as follows.

This thing is really a mess this week.

I expected to look like an idiot with this if Drake lost to Creighton last night (Creighton was favored by six), but they won in overtime, 68-60. Kyle Whelliston predicted the exact score, which is pretty impressive. It was Drake's first win @Creighton since 2002, and their best win of the year so far. They have a good shot at starting off 11-0 in the MVC before a trip to surprising Illinois St. on February 5.

This ballot does end up looking kind of silly, since Tennessee somehow lost to Kentucky last night. I suppose it is difficult to win on the road when you shoot 7/26 from three and get outrebounded by 11. I still think the Volunteers are the best team in the conference, but maybe the gap is smaller than I thought.

Ole Miss was 15th in the overall blogpoll, but I don't have them ranked. This will continue to be the case until they win a road SEC game. Mississippi St. on Saturday would be a good place to start.

Pretty much the same situation for Vanderbilt. In their two SEC road games they lost to Kentucky in double OT (which was really a terribly played game on both ends, although that loss doesn't look as bad after last night), and lost to Tennessee by 20. They play @UF and @Ole Miss in the next week, so they'll have no shortage of opportunities to prove themselves.

I'm honestly not really sure what inspired me to put Gonzaga so high. Although that win over UConn in Boston could end up looking pretty good. They will probably get blown out at Memphis on Saturday, and that'll be the end of that. St. Mary's is #15 because they handed Drake their only loss, beat Oregon, and have only lost @Texas and @SIU. They are also 4-0 on neutral floors. They should move to 6-0 in the WCC before a home game against Gonzaga a week from Monday.

I have West Virginia 18th, which is the highest of anyone in the blogpoll (they are unranked in the full ballot). Their only losses are in road/neutral games to Tennessee, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Louisville, and they've beaten Duquesne, Marquette, and Syracuse at home. They play @Georgetown on Saturday in a game that Pomeroy's numbers actually have them winning, so that'll be interesting. More on the Hoyas later tonight.

Some interesting matchups/lines tonight (for the record, this is not, in any way, shape, or form, betting advice; it's really the opposite of that, as the lines that the books set tend to show us when the perceptions of teams are skewed):

Missouri @ Texas Tech (-1); suprising that TT is only laying a point here, as Mizzou is 1-6 in road/neutral games, while Tech is undefeated at home, including last Wednesday's win over A&M.
Baylor @ Texas A&M (-9); A&M laying a whole lot of points to a good Baylor team that's already beaten South Carolina and Nebraska on the road.
Kansas St. (-3) @ Colorado; really short line here, as K State just won @Oklahoma, and Colorado already has eight losses.
Florida (-1) @ South Carolina; another surprisingly small number
UNC (-7.5) @ Miami, Memphis (-13) @ Tulsa; Carolina and Memphis getting 70% of the action on the road, as usual

Blogpoll: Week Four

The full blogpoll can be found here; my ballot was as follows:

My strategy for teams who don't play anyone (Pitt, Clemson) is to just keep them where they are. I really don't care how much you beat Toledo by (26, in Pitt's case); you're not moving up with this nonsense. As for Clemson, they're actually lower than last week, because they looked absolutely atrocious against Purdue.

Arizona is good, apparently. I kind of lost faith after they lost to UVA at home, but playing with Kansas in Lawrence and beating Texas A&M certainly puts you in the top 25. I'm trying to plan a trip to visit a friend at Arizona and see Wildcats-Bruins in early March. We shall see.

It's hard to know what to do with teams like USC. They're clearly very good, but they need to actually start winning some of these games (they should have last night; Memphis gave them that game, Hackett just missed the FT that would have given them the lead with six seconds left).

I filled this ballot out Monday night, but last night caused me to have some second thoughts about having Memphis so high. They looked so sloppy. It's one thing for USC to still be figuring things out this early in the year, but expectations are a lot higher for the Tigers.

Big game in the northwest tonight, Washington St. @ Gonzaga.

The Hoosiers have bounced back after a disappointing loss to Xavier with wins over Georgia Tech and Southern Illinois. Interesting game in Bloomington on Saturday, with Kentucky coming into town.

Butler is another team it's hard to find a spot for. They outscored Ohio State 45-16 in the second half, and have the advantage of being more of a "name" than a year ago, but their resume isn't going to be nearly as strong; the only major conference team left on their schedule is Florida State (they play @Southern Illinois later this month as well).