Pre-Preseason College Hoops Top 10

There is a lot of information to go through here, so I thought I'd try to compile some of it, as well as add my own opinions. Among the various resources used for this were Katz's top 25, Lunardi's Bracketology, Pomeroy's site, Rivals' Prospect Rankings, and Wikipedia (always). The futures lines were gathered from Bodog, BetUS, Carib, and Sportsbook.

1. North Carolina (4.5-1, BetUS)
Katz #1, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 36-3 (14-2), Pomeroy #4. Lost to Kansas in the national semifinal.

Sophomore forward Alex Stepheson is transferring, to some school out west (he hasn't decided). I think the Tar Heels will survive the loss.

Since 2000, four teams have gotten at least 80% of the preseason first place votes in both the AP and ESPN polls, as I'm assuming UNC will. Two of those teams--'06-'07 Florida, and '03-04 UConn--won the title. The other two--'05-06 Duke, and '01-'02 Duke--lost in the Sweet 16. I don't know what that means, other than "Dook is teh suck" but it's interesting.

Carib currently has the Tar Heels at +250 to win the title, which is pretty absurd. What this ends up doing is putting a lot of value in some of the other teams, as you'll see below.

2. UCLA (18-1 at Carib)
Katz #3, Lunardi #2 seed
Last year: 35-4 (16-2), Pomeroy #3. Lost to Memphis in the national semifinal.

Give it up for Ben Howland, everybody. Losing two top 10 picks and still being this loaded is a neat trick. The incoming class, led by Jrue (pronounced Drew) Holiday, is supposed to be the best in the country. Add that to Collison, Shipp, and Aboya, and the pieces are in place for a fourth straight Final Four, which would be an astonishing accomplishment in this day and age.

The Bruins are getting some bonus points here for Howland. You don't have Defensive Efficiencies rankings of 3, 2, and 3 over a three-year stretch by accident. It's too bad, for both team and player, that Mbah a Moute's decided to stay in the draft. He could've been a solid contributor, and might end up going undrafted.

18-1 may be the best value on the board. Even if you don't agree with them at #2, it'd be hard to argue that they're not the second most likely team to get a #1 seed, given the relative weakness of their conference.

3. Pittsburgh (22-1, The Greek)
Katz #2, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 27-10 (10-8), Pomeroy #21. Lost to Michigan St. in the second round.

Well, I suppose they're the heavy favorite to win the Big East tournament at the moment.

Katz mentioned that Mike Cook may get a medical redshirt and be allowed to return for another year. That'd be big, since they're already set inside with Young and Blair, and at the point with Fields. It's tough to place them with that unknown, but I suppose that's why you don't rank teams in June.

22-1 isn't bad. The problem is this conference, which is going to be outrageously good. Four teams may end up deserving top two seeds, but that doesn't mean they'll all get them. For that reason, I don't know that I could pull the trigger on any of these Big East futures.

4. Duke (15-1, Carib)
Katz #6, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 28-6 (13-3), Pomeroy #8. Lost to West Virginia in the second round.

Considering they have six of their seven top contributors returning, you'd think it would be fairly easy to gauge how good this team is, but I have no idea. By the end of last year, they were much better than the public perception (no mystique!), but worse than their lofty Pomeroy rank. Problem is, that leaves a pretty big gap.

They lose Nelson, but their best recruit is 6'4 "slashing lefty" Elliot Williams, who sounds like an ideal replacement. Although that doesn't help their apparent weakness down low--I don't know if you've heard, but Duke lacked an "inside presence" last year.

I do know I wouldn't take them at 15:1.

5. Connecticut (20-1, Carib)
Katz #15, Lunardi #2 seed
Last year: 24-9 (13-5), Pomeroy #22. Lost to San Diego in the first round.

I was quite surprised to see that Katz has UConn so low. It sounds like they lose Stanley Robinson (Winn says he's "on the brink of academic ineligibility), which would be unfortunate. I really think a lot of the pessimism is caused by their weak finish last year, losing four of their last seven. But that included a two-point loss at Villanova, losing to a very good West Virginia team in the BE tournament, and losing to San Diego in OT without their point guard in the NCAAs. If, on February 20th, you would've told people that Thabeet was coming back, they would've been talking the Huskies up as preseason #1.

One thing UConn could stand to improve is their perimeter defense. With Thabeet inside, they held opponents to 40.4% from 2 (second in the country), but allowed 34.9% from 3 (153rd). Maybe the addition of Rice guard Kemba Walker (Rivals #14) will help in that regard.

6. Louisville (20-1, Carib)
Katz #5, Lunardi #3 seed
Last year: 27-9 (14-4), Pomeroy #6. Lost to North Carolina in the Elite 8.

They lose a lot of bigs--Padgett, Caracter, and Palacios--but are seemingly prepared for that with two Rivals top 20 recruits, 6'9" Samardo Samuels and 6'10" Terrence Jennings, incoming. The backcourt will be very strong, as they have everybody coming back. Earl Clark should make a big impact after electing to return, rather than entering the draft as a likely first round pick.

Maybe a couple guys will get hurt, they'll lose a bunch of games in November and December, and be undervalued for three months. That'd be fun.

7. Memphis (25-1, Carib)
Katz #7, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 38-2 (16-0), Pomeroy #2. Lost to Kansas in the national championship.

Like Duke, Memphis is tough to gauge, but for entirely different reasons. We know exactly how good they were last year--second best team in the country. But without Rose, CDR, and Dorsey though, that's not all that helpful.

Anderson, Dozier, Taggart, and Kemp return, joined by 6'5" guard, and Rivals #6 prospect, Tyreke Evans, and two more top 50 recruits. It's not clear how good the returning guys are, because they were only complimentary pieces last year, and recruits are always hard to value. So I'll play it safe and go with Katz here.

8. Texas (30-1, Carib)
Katz #13, Lunardi #3 seed
Last year: 31-7 (13-3), Pomeroy #9. Lost to Memphis in the Elite 8.

They would've been #2 if Augustin had come back, without a doubt.

Mercifully for all parties, Abrams is returning after considering going pro. Mason will take over at the point, which will clearly be a dropoff, although who knows how much. After a breakout 2008, Atchley returns for his senior season. This is a very strong team, which could contend for the title if Mason turns out to be a capable full-time point.

9. Gonzaga (50-1, BetUS)
Katz #9, Lunardi #4 seed
Last year: 25-8 (13-1), Pomeroy #30. Lost to Davidson in the first round.

That first round exit isn't looking so bad now, is it?

The Bulldogs got great news last week, when Pargo announced he'd return to school for his senior year. He returns to a pretty stacked team--a full year from Heytvelt, and everyone else except Pendergraft returning. If they're going to contend for a title, this is their year, as they'll lose (at least) Pargo, Heytvelt, and Downs after this season.

Probably because of their first round loss (and Heytvelt missing time), Gonzaga at 50-1 looks to be the second best value available here.

10. Notre Dame (50-1, Carib)
Katz #4, Lunardi #2 seed
Last year: 25-8 (14-4), Pomeroy #28. Lost to Washington St. in the second round.

They have a very good team coming back, but the defense is still a huge question mark. Notre Dame's Defensive Efficiency rankings over the last three years have been 120th, 49th, and 42nd, respectively. With the same personnel and coach as last year, I have a hard time putting them much higher than this. Should be a fantastic offense, though.

Carib seems to have the same reservations (defense, strong conference) about this team that I do, as their odds are a real outlier among Katz's rankings. If you think they're the fourth best team in the country, it's certainly worth it. Here, it's probably not.

Photo: NCAA.org.

A Post-Draft Deadline Look at the Big East

The deadline to declare for the draft was yesterday. There are still a lot of moving parts, since players have until June 16th to withdraw their name from consideration. We can make some reasonable assumptions though- most of of the top prospects have hired agents, and it's unlikely that guys like D.J. Augustin and Russell Westbrook will be returning. A full list of who has declared can be found here.

Since I couldn't care less about the NBA (although I do enjoy the draft), I'm primarily concerned with the guys that are coming back. The notables on this list include Earl Clark, Darren Collison, Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin, Hansbrough, Hasheem Thabeet, Terrence Williams, and Sam Young. The thing that jumped out at me is that the Big East is going to be very, very good next year. They dominate the previous list, and they won't lose as much to graduation as other conferences. A look at some of the top contenders:

Connecticut (20:1 at Sportsbook)
Declared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Nobody

UConn would be getting all kinds of hype if Price hadn't gotten hurt in the first round. They'd be a Sweet 16 team (at least) with almost everybody coming back (Wiggins transferred). As it happened, they're an afterthought with a rehabbing point guard. If Price makes a full recovery, with the ever-improving Thabeet returning, this should be a top 5 team.

Louisville (20:1)
Declared for draft: Derrick Caracter
Graduated: David Padgett, Juan Palacios

They return an excellent backcourt- Williams, Smith, Sosa, and McGee- and Earl Clark returning is huge. They lose a lot more than UConn, but were better to begin with. The big question is whether incoming freshmen Samardo Samuels (#9 on the Rivals 150, an "automatic double/double guy") and Terrence Jennings (#18) can replace the production they are losing inside.

Georgetown (20:1)
Delcared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Jonathan Wallace, Roy Hibbert, Patrick Ewing Jr.

Tough break for the Hoyas last week, as sophomore foward Vernon Macklin announced his intention to transfer. That's a big hit to their frontcourt, which was already going to struggle to replace Hibbert. A lot of Georgetown's success will depend on how good incoming freshman Greg Monroe (6'10", Rivals #8) is.


Pittsburgh (20:1)
Declared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Ronald Ramon, Keith Benjamin, Mike Cook

Sam Young and DeJuan Blair will be very tough inside. The lack of guards may be a problem, with three of their top four graduating (Fields is the fourth). With a potentially dominant combo inside, they won't need the guards to be all-world, but there are some holes to fill. Pitt doesn't look to have any highly touted recruits coming in.

Notre Dame (40:1)
Declared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Rob Kurz

Ugh. I'm still bitter. Kurz is a significant loss inside, but they still have Harangody and Hillesland. Combine them with McAlarney, Tory Jackson and Ryan Ayers on the perimeter, and they might even win a road game. Seriously though, that is a very solid starting five. I just don't know if I can deal with another year of Harangody and Hansbrough being on ESPN three nights a week.

I won't give them their own paragraph, but if McNeal withdraws from the draft, Marquette will be a contender. The same is true for Donte Greene and Syracuse, although it seems unlikely that he would return.

At this point in the year, it usually seems like the quality of play is going to be down, since most of the guys we are familiar with are either graduating or heading to the NBA. With every other conference, I think this holds true, but not with the Big East, which looks to be the strongest conference heading into the upcoming season.

UNC, UCLA Advance to San Antonio

North Carolina 83, Louisville 73

I hate to say it, but an absolutely brilliant game out of Hansbrough. To open the second half, as Louisville was starting to make a run, he made two extremely tough shots- one a fall away jumper, the other a very improbable layup after which he ended up on the floor. On the strength of five minutes of unusually intelligent Louisville basketball- not turning the ball over, taking decent shots, getting back in transition- an Earl Clark free throw tied it with 10:21 left. Hansbrough took over after that, with a combination of long jumpers and free throws. The other big shot belonged to Lawson, who hit a 3 to put UNC up 6 with 5 minutes left.

Not surprisingly, the turnovers really killed Louisville. In the second half, their shot selection improved, and they were getting the ball inside rather than throwing up shots from the perimeter. Unfortunately, getting the ball inside isn't very helpful if you travel after doing so, which Earl Clark managed to do three times.

The announcers for this one were comical. Dick Enberg does not know where he is, and at one point claimed that Hansbrough, with 9 assists, was nearing a triple double. He'd made a reasonable mistake, accidentally looking at Lawson's line, but anyone who was paying attention would've realized that there was no way Hansbrough had 9 assists. Enberg didn't. Bilas, who's usually decent, fell in love with Hansbrough just the same as every other announcer, yelling about how his heart and will as he was hitting 18-footers. Tonight, Hansbrough's dominant performances gave him a chance to take it to a whole new level, and he jumped at the opportunity. TH has come a very long way over the last three years, which is something that should be noted and complemented, rather than repeating the same meaningless praises. We know he plays hard. We get it.

Not to take anything away from Hansbrough, but it could've been a lot different. He was guarding Padgett, and could have been called for multiple fouls- something even Enberg noticed- in the second half. A turning point, which I believe happened when UNC was up 5 with about 3 minutes left, was when Hansbrough looked like he bumped Padgett, but instead the ref said that Padgett stepped out, and Carolina got the ball back.

The Cardinals just don't play like a very "well coached" team. They turned the ball over 37 times in their final two games, and shot 9/16 from the line tonight. Especially in the first half, they took way too many outside shots, which is not new. Williams, Smith, and Sosa combined to shoot about 35% from 3 this year, but that doesn't stop them from shooting. I understand they like to press a lot, but some of the baskets they gave up in transition, with the UNC guards getting behind the Louisville defenders, were inexcusable. It's hard to argue with Pitino's success, but I don't think this year's team was one of his better coaching jobs.

UCLA 76, Xavier 57

UCLA did not play well in the first half, at all. Xavier had multiple easy dunks inside, the Bruins kept turning the ball over, and Shipp was throwing up shots that weren't hitting anything. The fact that they were up 9 at the half did not bode well for the Musketeers, and UCLA pulled away after the break. Collison has been incredible- he made all three 3s he attempted, and is now 10/15 from deep in the tournament. Shipp was awful again (1/7 from the floor), but Mbah a Moute and Westbrook both showed up for a change, and that was enough for the Bruins to advance to their third straight Final Four.

There is now a 48% chance that all four #1 seeds reach San Antonio.

Update: Doug Gottlieb has informed us that Texas is the favorite tomorrow. He finishes his rant by saying, "I got Texas playing at home." Okay, sure, but what if they were playing in Houston?

Elite 8 Preview: Saturday

There are only seven games left in the season, which is somewhat depressing. Hopefully, we have some fantastic games ahead of us. The two tonight each have that potential.

For each team I've listed the "Best Final Four odds", which are the best odds you could find two weeks ago. The "Real Final Four odds" are the odds you would've gotten if you'd bet on that teams' money line in each game.

(1) UCLA -6.5 vs. (3) Xavier
6:40pm EST
Best Final Four odds: UCLA -140, Xavier +1100
Real Final Four odds: UCLA 53.2% (-138), Xavier 6.4% (+1327)

Yesterday, Gasaway pointed out the parallels between last year's Ohio St. team, and UCLA this season. Both teams came into the tournament as top seeds with lofty expectations, and both struggled in rounds two and three. The Buckeyes had no trouble with Memphis in the Elite 8, and reached the championship game before losing to Florida.

Despite the sample size of one, it's an interesting comparison. That both teams revolved around a point guard and a big man doesn't hurt. I do think last year's Tennessee team was better than WKU this year; they did reach the Sweet 16, but the Hilltoppers only beat Drake and San Diego on their way there.

The Bruins are also still dealing with these lingering injury issues. It's far from clear that Mbah a Moute is healthy, as he's combined for 9 points and 10 turnovers in their last two games. They survived A&M without a third guy stepping up (check out the box score; it was really absurd), but they are going to need Shipp and/or Westbrook to have solid games to get past Xavier.

Drew Lavender is the guy everyone loves to talk about (he's short, if you hadn't heard), but Josh Duncan has gotten the Musketeers here, averaging almost 21 points in the first three tournament games. X has the bodies to stop Love inside, but I'm not sure who on this UCLA team the 5'7 Lavender will be able to defend.

(1) North Carolina -6 vs (3) Louisville
9:05 pm EST
Best Final Four odds: UNC -125, Louisville +350
Real Final Four odds: UNC 46.6% (-101), Louisville 11.1% (+700)

Finally.

These two have combined to win their first six games by 158 points. This is especially impressive considering the East was considered the most difficult region, although I suppose a large part of that was because it contained these two squads.

It's arguably the best offense in the country against what might be the best defense, but they get it done in different ways. UNC is so good because of all the offensive rebounds, and all the free throws- there's one guy who I think is pretty good at both of these things, but I can't seem to remember his name. Louisville held its opponents to the seventh lowest eFG in the country, which is interesting since they only person on Carolina that really qualifies as a "shooter" is Ellington (Danny Green fit that description for the first have against Wazzu, but doesn't qualify otherwise.)

On offense, Louisville relies on the inside games of Earl Clark, David Padgett, and Derrick Caracter. Their only real outside threat is McGee, although that doesn't stop Williams, Smith, and Sosa from jacking up plenty of threes as well. They need to get the ball inside to Padgett both because this is how they can score, and they can look to get Hansbrough into foul trouble. If they run the offense through him, rather than having their guards throw up ill advised shots from the perimeter, they can win this game.

As you're surely noticed, all the #1 seeds are still alive. We're four games away from the "doomsday" scenario of all four reaching San Antonio. Each is favored this weekend, but the lines only give a 1 in 4 chance to all four of them advancing.

Regional Previews: East

SITE NEWS: The Nationals' poll is the last one. Finally. I have to figure out the details of this contest, but hopefully it'll be up and running in the next few days.

Also, I have added even more pools to the list.

Okay, on to the East preview. The table below is a hybrid. For the first round percentages, I averaged the Vegas lines and the Pomeroy numbers. For rounds 2-4, I adjusted the Pomeroy numbers slightly. For example, I downgraded Indiana, because of the obvious external factors. I gave UNC a boost, because Pomeroy's numbers obviously don't know that Lawson was hurt.


There are reasonable arguments for each of the following statements:

• North Carolina is the best team in the country
• Tennessee should've been a 1 seed
• Louisville has the talent of a 2 seed
• Indiana should've been a 6, rather than an 8
• Butler should've been a 5, rather than a 7
  

It is pretty amazing that all five of these things converged into one region. The result is that the East is absolutely loaded.

The Sportsbook lines for this region are great. They have UNC at 5-7; the Tar Heels would have to have a 58% chance of reaching the Final Four for you to break even on that. They don't. This absurdity causes the rest of the lines to be better than usual- Sportsbook's odds only added up to 127% to begin with, and if you knock UNC down from 58% to 33%, there's barely any juice.

The Louisville line is a little better than break even, which is nice, but boring. The one that really surprised me was Indiana. I know they've been playing poorly lately, but 40:1? Even after I knocked down Pomeroy's numbers for the Hoosiers significantly, those are good odds.

Another intriguing one is Washington St. There are two reasons this line is so high- they didn't make it past the second round last year as a 3 seed, and they lost three straight home games in the middle of the Pac-10 season. Since then, they've played pretty well. I don't think it's unreasonable to say they've got a 1 in 10 chance, which makes their odds profitable.

I'm not saying it's a good bet (it's not), but considering what happened a couple years ago, I'd think Sportsbook is taking a good deal of action on George Mason at 300:1.

Yesterday, for the Midwest, six teams had at least a 1% chance of winning the regional, and only four were above 2%. For the East, those numbers are eight and seven, respectively. I think everybody thinks of the top three teams as serious Final Four contenders, and Washington St. is probably in the next tier down. It is possible that all of the following matchups occur: UNC-Indiana, Notre Dame-WSU, Butler-Tennessee, UNC-WSU, Louisville-Tennessee, and UNC-Louisville. I know upsets are part of what make the tournament what it is, but who could argue with that slate? I read somebody compare this region to the South last year- that works for me.

Pick: Louisville
Upset (has to be at least a 6 point underdog): George Mason
Scary team (four seed or lower): Indiana

Related: Bracket Breakdown: East and Midwest [Basketball Prospectus]

Conference Tournament Previews: Big East

Here are the Pomeroy percentages for each team advancing to each round of the Big East tournament, which begins on Wednesday:


The two top contenders are clear. Georgetown and Louisville are the top two Big East teams in the standings, RPI, Pomeroy rating, and conference Pomeroy rating.

After that, it's really a mess. Five more teams will make the tournament- Connecticut, West Virginia, Marquette, Notre Dame, and Pitt- but the order of those first four is anyone's guess. By traditional methods, UConn and Notre Dame are thought of as the next tier. The Huskies have gotten the most press, and have the best RPI of the bunch, but that's mostly a product of winning close games. Notre Dame has the impressive 14-4 Big East record, but unfortunately for them this tournament isn't played in South Bend.

It is Marquette, rather than either of those teams, that Pomeroy gives the third best chance. 15.6% is too high; insanely high, really, considering they don't even have a bye. This happens because the Pomeroy ratings have them as the 11th best team in the country, which is quite unrealistic. The Conference Check numbers give us a better gauge of things- they see UConn, West Virginia, Marquette, and Notre Dame is about equal. Due to a few very tough losses (by one to both Georgetown and Pitt, by two against Tennessee back in November), the Mountaineers have not gotten too much attention, but are capable of making a run.

The following table got a little out of hand. The first (numerical) column is what the odds for each team should be, going strictly by Pomeroy's numbers. Next, I have made some adjustments, mostly based on discrepancies between the Pomeroy ratings and the aforementioned Conference Check numbers, to arrive at what I think the true odds of each team winning the tournament should be. Finally, I list the best odds I've found on each team, and where they can be located.


Louisville doesn't have to be nearly as good as I've made them out to be for their +375 odds at BetUS to be profitable. By any available metric, they are right there with Georgetown. The idea that Georgetown had a 33% chance of winning the tournament, while Louisville is only at 21% (which is what the best available odds imply), is preposterous.

Let's look at Louisville's most difficult possible path- having to play Pittsburgh, then Notre Dame, then Georgetown. Pomeroy has them winning these games by 5.4, 4.1, and 0.1 points, respectively. Those all look about right, and the spreads for those potential games would likely be around there. This gives them a 23.8% chance of winning all three. As previously noted, they have to have a 21% chance of winning the tournament for +375 to be a good bet. So even in the worst case scenario, facing the best possible opponents, it's a good wager.

The unadjusted Pomeroy numbers think Marquette is a great look at +1200, but that's working under the assumption that they're the 11th best team in the country, which is false. Not having a bye isn't the end of the world, since they will likely beat Seton Hall pretty easily. But it does mean that winning the tournament would require playing four games in four days, which is not taken into account by the Pomeroy odds. I've tried to factor this in with the "True Odds", although it's obviously an inexact science. The Marquette odds are the second best available, but that's probably about the same as betting on them game-by-game.

Nothing else is very good. As usual, the longshots are atrocious. Even Notre Dame at +550 is ugly; their likely path of Marquette, Louisville, and Georgetown is very tough.

Related: Conference Tourney Mini-Previews: Big East [Rush the Court]

Friday Bracketology

It is a good thing Gary Parrish updated his bracket, because Lunardi hasn't. It says there's supposed to be an update today; hopefully there will be before I have to leave for the airport.

Xavier is down to a 4. Since when do you lose on the road to a bubble team and drop two lines? They should be flip-flopped with Notre Dame. You know what ND's best road win is? Villa-"8-9 in the Big East"-nova. Second best would be Seton Hall, I guess. Meanwhile, Xavier is 6-2 on the road in the A-10, with wins against UMass, Rhode Island, and Dayton. They also beat Indiana by 15 on a neutral floor. I find this to be completely unreasonable. Xavier really does need to get Lavender healthy, though. His ankle is far from 100%.

Louisville is finally up to a 3. They play @Georgetown tomorrow at noon. I would think that the winner of that game will be on the second line on Monday (the Hoyas are currently a 2).

There's a basketball game in Durham tomorrow night, apparently. It might even be on TV. The winner of that one has to be a 1. If Duke goes 14-2 in the ACC, including a sweep of UNC, they have to be a top seed. They were also 12-1 against the 35th most difficult non-conference schedule in the country, and that one loss came in OT on a 3 at the buzzer.

It doesn't really matter, but UNC has a great draw in this bracket. The 2-4 seeds in their region are Georgetown, Stanford, and Butler (Hibbert vs. the Lopez brothers on the second weekend would be fun, wouldn't it). Unless Carolina has to face a tough 8/9, that's pretty much a free pass to the Elite 8. And once there, their opponent cannot compare with some of the other 2/3 seeds like Kansas, Louisville and Duke.

I have a flight to Chicago in a bit, but if Lunardi updates his bracket soon I will likely write about that as well.

Update: Lunardi has updated his.

His top two lines are the same as Parrish, except for one- Lunardi has Wisconsin as a 2, while Parrish has Georgetown. I have no problem with this, and Georgetown has the opportunity to prove themselves tomorrow against Louisville. I do wonder how much Wisconsin's easy B10 schedule plays into this.

Xavier is a 3, and Notre Dame is a 4. So at least somebody is paying attention.

There is some disagreement on Butler. They are a 6 in Lunardi's a 4 for Parrish. Their #18 RPI splits the difference. Their #35 Pomeroy rank does not. They'll be overseeded regardless, but I'd go with 5 for now.

UConn is the opposite; 6th for Parrish, 4th for Lunardi. I am not a big fan of this team, but a 12-5 BE record, plus a win @Indiana, and their only non-con losses coming against Memphis and Gonzaga, deserves higher than a 6.

Against The Spread

Last week's post about consistency was pretty complicated- my head starts to hurt if I think about that stuff for too long. Today's post is quite the opposite. This is simply how teams have fared against the spread in conference play- their average ATS, rather than the standard deviation of that average.

In some sense this shows how each team has done against expectations, but that's not entirely true. As the season progresses, those expectations are adjusted, and that influences the spread. To consistently cover, you have to improve with these expectations-it's not enough to just be better than people thought you were going to be, since they will catch on eventually.

This first table is the top 10 teams against the spread this year, measured by point margin. I have also included a column showing how much you would've won if you had bet $100 on that team in every game, at -110 juice. Through games of 3/3.


The Boilermakers are unmatched in both metrics, as they're an incredible 13-3 ATS in the Big Ten. This will happen when you're expected to go to the NIT, and end up with a protected seed in the NCAAs. In their first eight conference games, they were favored by an average of 1.8 points, and outscored their opponents by an average of 6.25 ppg. In the second half, those numbers were 2.9 and 9.5. That's a pretty good recipe for covering in 81% of your games. (Edit: Well, down to 76% after last night.)

It's kind of strange to see the Beasley-Walkers on this list. They absolutely destroyed expectations in their first five conference games, going 5-0 against the spread and covering by an average of 14.7 ppg. But after that fifth win, against Kansas, people started to pay attention. Since then, they're only 3-6 ATS, and their average is -0.9. They're not sneaking up on anybody anymore, for obvious reasons.

Louisville is better than people think? Really? I never would've guessed.

It really is amazing to see a team as widely respected as UCLA on this list. They've been favored by an average of 9.3 ppg in conference games, but won by an average of 12. They've been brilliant on the road, covering in seven of nine games.

Wisconsin's combination is a little odd. That is caused by losing ATS by a half point twice, and a single point once. Winning by 25 @Penn St. doesn't hurt either.

Now for the disappointments:

Ole Miss was 13-0 in non-conference play, ascending as high as 15th in the ESPN poll. But seven of those wins were by single digits, and they came against the 164th most difficult schedule in the country. Regardless, people thought they were good- they've been favored by an average of 3.0 ppg in SEC play. Unfortunately for them, they've been outscored by 3.1 ppg on their way to a 5-9 SEC record.

Incredibly, Texas A&M appears on this list despite beating Texas Tech by 44 last week (they were favored by 9). They've had an extremely strange year- a -14.9 average ATS in their first four games, +7.0 in their next five, then -9.4 in their final five. In fact, their updated consistency number is 17.7, which makes them easily the least consistent team among those in the power conferences.

It is difficult to go 4-11 ATS when you're getting an average of 13.9 ppg, but Oregon St. has managed to do just that. Although I guess it's not that difficult if you go winless in conference play and lose by an average of 18.9 ppg. The distribution of talent in the Pac-10 was truly amazing this year. Washington has the second worst RPI at 104; the Beavers are 257th. Or, if you prefer tempo-free stats, the difference between 1 and 9 is about the same as the difference between 9 and 10.

A week ago, Texas Tech wouldn't have been anywhere near this list- in fact, they would've been close to the overachievers list, at +2.21. But when you lose two games by a combined 102 points, well, things go south pretty quickly.

The ATS data for the teams that didn't make these lists can be found here.

Photo: Lafayette Online.

Handicapping The Top Line

Joe Lunardi published an article today looking at which teams could possibly end up as #1 seeds. The way he sees it, there are seven schools fighting for four spots. Here are the percentage chances that he gives each team of securing a top seed:

Memphis: 85%
Tennessee: 60%
UCLA: 60%
North Carolina: 55%
Duke: 45%
Kansas: 45%
Texas: 40%

This was obviously before Texas' win in Manhattan tonight (thanks for nothing, Bill Walker), so they're probably a little higher.

First of all, these only add up to 390%. Either Lunardi can't add, or he thinks there's a 10% chance a team like Xavier sneaks onto the top line. I tend to think it's the former; if he thinks Xavier has a 10% chance at a 1 seed, he should have said so.

I agree that Memphis is the most likely. They're clearly a 1 right now, and it is extremely unlikely that they lose before the C-USA tournament- according to Pomeroy, they have a 85% chance of winning their final four conference games. They are then hosting the C-USA tournament, so it would be quite a shock if they lost there. Even with this, it's possible that they stay on the top line with a loss. 85% looks about right; I might even go as high as 90%.

I would say the rest of the percentages look about right as well. UCLA and Tennessee are clearly the front runners after Memphis. Texas is now in good position to finish 14-2 in the B12; I think they're probably the fourth most likely at this point. I'm not quite sure what to make of UNC, with Lawson missing so much time.

Along with Xavier, Stanford and Louisville are two other teams worth watching. The Cardinal clearly doesn't belong on the time line at this point, but they have the opportunity to make some noise, playing at USC and UCLA to finish out the Pac-10 season. If they sweep those, as well as their home games against the Washington schools this weekend, they'll finish 15-3 in the Pac-10, and hold at least a share of the conference title. If they then win the tournament, you have to think they'd receive strong consideration for a 1 seed. It's a longshot, but one worth considering.

Louisville is in a similar situation. If they take care of Notre Dame and Villanova at home, and then win @Georgetown, they'll finish 15-3 in the Big East. If they do this, and then win the conference tournament, they would have a case. This is actually a more likely scenario than Stanford's, since Louisville winning @Georgetown is much more likely than Stanford winning on the road against both USC and UCLA.

Theoretical Futures Odds

I'm still unclear as to why, but while looking at some college basketball futures odds tonight I decided it would be a really bright idea to make my own. So, below are the odds I have come up with on 48 teams winning the tournament. They are presented in the same format as a normal betting site; Kansas' 5:1 odds mean I think they have roughly a 1 in 6 chance of winning it all.

There is no house advantage on these- they add up to 100.0084%. That's the best I could do.

So there you have it. Based on this, I see three teams that are good bets right now- Louisville (25.5:1, The Greek), Indiana (45.5:1, Greek), and Xavier (80:1, BetUS).

Edit: Well if half the team quits, there probably isn't much value in the Hoosiers.

Also, looking at these odds again, I'm not thrilled with having such a big separation between UNC and Duke. Both those teams are very difficult to figure, but it should probably be closer than that.

Bracketology Breakdown

One of the great things about college hoops is that the polls don't actually matter, as there's that little tournament at the end of the season. In light of this, I thought I'd do another overrated/underrated type post, but use the latest Bracketology rather than the polls.

The teams in green are those that I think should/will get better seeds, and the teams in red are currently too high. I've included their projected Bracketology seed, their Pomeroy ranking, and their National Championship odds at Sportsbook.

UCLA- #2 seed, Pomeroy #3 overall, 9:2 at Sportsbook
Are we really going to go through this again? Last year UCLA got screwed out of a one seed, although they did get to stay in California through the first four rounds and ended up reaching the Final Four. UCLA has had some injury problems- Collison missed the first six games, Mbah a Moute has missed four Pac-10 games, Mata-Real has missed a couple games. Despite this, they are 10-2 in what might be the top conference in the country. Even with the three losses, I think they're at least in the "top team in the country" conversation, and really don't see how they can be behind...

Tennessee- #1 seed, Pomeroy #15 overall, 12:1 at Sportsbook
If the Volunteers beat Memphis, sure, put them up on the top line. But right now, I'm just not seeing it. It's true that they're 10-1 in the SEC, but the SEC isn't very good. Tennessee has also been fortunate to have just one loss, as they've won their last four SEC road games by an average of only 4 points, against powerhouses such as LSU and UGA. The good news is that this will probably take care of itself- if Tennessee beats Memphis, they'll deserve their 1 seed, and a loss would likely drop them down to the second line.

Louisville- #4 seed, Pomeroy #8 overall, 18:1 at Sportsbook
Perception is slowly starting to catch up to reality with Louisville- they are finally ranked (23rd) in the ESPN poll this week. It's possible that they doesn't deserve higher than this based on their current resume, but you'd be hard pressed to find 12 more talented squads. Their Pomeroy rating is actually held down a bit, since they struggled without Padgett and Palacios early in the year, starting the season 5-3. With road games against Pitt and Georgetown, the rest of their schedule is challenging, but I expect them to be at least a 2 or 3 seed when the actual brackets are unveiled.

Purdue- #3 seed, Pomeroy #22 overall, 75:1 at Sportsbook
When a projected 3 seed is still 75:1 to win it all, something is off. These aren't old odds either- Sportsbook updated these futures on Monday. Even I am starting to become a believer in the "Baby Boilers", who have now won 11 straight B10 games. Still, this is probably their peak, as they visit Bloomington on Tuesday night. It's certainly possible that they continue to prove everyone wrong, but I think the end up being a 4 or 5 seed on Selection Sunday.

Kansas St.- #4 seed, Pomeroy #6 overall, 30:1 at Sportsbook
Beating Missouri by 37 sure helps your Pomeroy rank. Everybody knows that Beasley scored 40 points, but did you realize he did that in 27 minutes? Projected out to a full 40 minutes, that's 59 points. He might get paid to play basketball some day. This is a scary team, but they're yet to prove themselves on the road. Interestingly, freshman guard Jacob Pullen has a 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio in B12 home games, but has just seven assists and eight turnovers in conference road games. They have winnable games at Nebraska and Baylor this week, before hosting UT on Big Monday. I don't know what seed they end up getting, but I certainly wouldn't want them as a 4 in my region.

The Tampa over ended up getting 49 of 66 votes (74%). If we do one of these each weekday, and one each weekend, we can finish all 30 before the season starts. Mariners poll is up now.

This Week's Links (2/11-2/15)

Mr. I: "If there was ever a Douchebag Smurf, this is what he would've looked like."

Guesses on the lines for tomorrow's college basketball games.

More projected standings, this time using CHONE. 89 wins for the Rays?

Pomeroy:

Louisville probably won't win the Big East regular season title, but don't let that fool you. They're the best team in the conference.

A very flattering picture of Josh Beckett.

YouTube was forced to delete all the Berman videos. Deadspin wasn't.

NL Spring Training previews from Sheehan: East, Central, West. On the Giants:

Winter grade: F
They took a 71-91 team and replaced its best position player with a guy coming off a career year who’s had two above-average seasons in his life. For $60 million. Good luck with that.
One move to make: Release half the roster. And the general manager.

Indeed.

Blogpoll: Week Fourteen

The full blogpoll is here, my ballot was as follows.

Indiana is screwed. The Sampson mess, the Butch three- not a good day for the Hoosiers. I've thought they were a little overrated for a few weeks now- they're now 9-2 in the B10, but they could easily be 7-4 or even 6-5. But now, if they lose to MSU and Purdue at home in the next week (both at home), it'll all be blamed on the coach. Not that that situation doesn't have any effect, but it's probably not the whole story.

UConn is incredible- tonight makes eight in a row (gotta love Thabeet's line of 4pts, 10 boards, 6 blocks). They were a 4 in Bracketology this week- they may even get bumped up a line on Monday. Their last seven BE games really aren't that tough- they play at USF, Villanova, and Providence, and host West Virginia, but will likely be favored in every game the rest of the way.

Louisville should certainly be higher (although I'm closer than some). It's always tough to know what to do with teams that were missing key players early in the season. Despite having one more loss than Georgetown, they've been the best Big East team in conference games. They have a much more difficult schedule than the Huskies, with games @Pitt & Georgetown, and home games against Notre Dame and Syracuse.

Drake lost in Carbondale tonight, but I won't drop them that far next week. You are allowed to lose once every couple months, I think.