Considering how closely people follow the projected brackets, I thought it'd be fun to see who ended up being the closest. I took the final predictions from the three big sites- ESPN (Lunardi), Sportsline (Parrish), SI (Mandel). Here's how they stacked up.
Lunardi was the only one of the three to guess the field perfectly, going 65/65. The other two each missed one. Parrish had Illinois St. in, and Oregon out; Mandel had Virginia Tech in, and Villanova out.
For me, the longer you looked at Illinois St.'s resume, the more obvious it became that they were not deserving. Their RPI is 33, which is quite good for a bubble team. They went 13-5 in MVC, a conference that has made a name for itself over the last few years, and reached the conference tournament final. They were also 2-5 against the RPI Top 50.
But a closer look reveals that there's really not much there. There was one very good team in the Valley this year- Drake. Illinois St. played them three times, and lost all three. Their two Top 50 wins were both against Creighton, 46th in the RPI and not exactly an elite team this season. They also have one terrible loss (Eastern Michigan, RPI #237), and a couple other bad ones (Northern Iowa, RPI #131, and Indiana St., RPI #128). At the end of the day, they didn't have any impressive wins, and had some bad losses, which I think canceled out their strong RPI.
Virginia Tech was pretty clearly undeserving, in my opinion. People were arguing for them because they almost beat UNC. This is not an acceptable argument. Oregon only lost to UCLA by 5; is that at the top of their resume? Of course not, because they have real wins. This is not the case for Virginia Tech, whose best win was against a pretty mediocre Miami squad. They were 1-7 against the Top 50, and their second best win was probably @Maryland. Not very impressive.
These guys don't only predict what teams will be in, of course- they also guess what seed each team will be. So, who was the best at that?
Somewhat surprisingly, it was SI's Mandel, whose average miss was only 0.63. Parrish was second, at 0.72, and Lunardi came in third at 0.77. If we use RMSE, to penalize more for big misses, Lunardi jumps ahead of Parrish, but Mandel still leads.
The most surprising seed was Oregon being a 9. Lunardi and Mandel both had them as a 12, and Parrish didn't even have them in the field. They'll face Mississippi St. in the first round.
Other surprising seeds: Kansas St. (11, expected to be an 8/9), Indiana (8, expected 5/6), Miami FL (7, expected 9/10), and Butler (7, expected 4/5). I was shocked by Indiana, and also Vanderbilt, who somehow got a 4 seed.
Related: Selection Sunday 2008 Part II [The Money Line Journal]
Showing posts with label Lunardi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lunardi. Show all posts
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Friday, March 7, 2008
Friday Bracketology
It is a good thing Gary Parrish updated his bracket, because Lunardi hasn't. It says there's supposed to be an update today; hopefully there will be before I have to leave for the airport.
Xavier is down to a 4. Since when do you lose on the road to a bubble team and drop two lines? They should be flip-flopped with Notre Dame. You know what ND's best road win is? Villa-"8-9 in the Big East"-nova. Second best would be Seton Hall, I guess. Meanwhile, Xavier is 6-2 on the road in the A-10, with wins against UMass, Rhode Island, and Dayton. They also beat Indiana by 15 on a neutral floor. I find this to be completely unreasonable. Xavier really does need to get Lavender healthy, though. His ankle is far from 100%.
Louisville is finally up to a 3. They play @Georgetown tomorrow at noon. I would think that the winner of that game will be on the second line on Monday (the Hoyas are currently a 2).
There's a basketball game in Durham tomorrow night, apparently. It might even be on TV. The winner of that one has to be a 1. If Duke goes 14-2 in the ACC, including a sweep of UNC, they have to be a top seed. They were also 12-1 against the 35th most difficult non-conference schedule in the country, and that one loss came in OT on a 3 at the buzzer.
It doesn't really matter, but UNC has a great draw in this bracket. The 2-4 seeds in their region are Georgetown, Stanford, and Butler (Hibbert vs. the Lopez brothers on the second weekend would be fun, wouldn't it). Unless Carolina has to face a tough 8/9, that's pretty much a free pass to the Elite 8. And once there, their opponent cannot compare with some of the other 2/3 seeds like Kansas, Louisville and Duke.
I have a flight to Chicago in a bit, but if Lunardi updates his bracket soon I will likely write about that as well.
Update: Lunardi has updated his.
His top two lines are the same as Parrish, except for one- Lunardi has Wisconsin as a 2, while Parrish has Georgetown. I have no problem with this, and Georgetown has the opportunity to prove themselves tomorrow against Louisville. I do wonder how much Wisconsin's easy B10 schedule plays into this.
Xavier is a 3, and Notre Dame is a 4. So at least somebody is paying attention.
There is some disagreement on Butler. They are a 6 in Lunardi's a 4 for Parrish. Their #18 RPI splits the difference. Their #35 Pomeroy rank does not. They'll be overseeded regardless, but I'd go with 5 for now.
UConn is the opposite; 6th for Parrish, 4th for Lunardi. I am not a big fan of this team, but a 12-5 BE record, plus a win @Indiana, and their only non-con losses coming against Memphis and Gonzaga, deserves higher than a 6.
Xavier is down to a 4. Since when do you lose on the road to a bubble team and drop two lines? They should be flip-flopped with Notre Dame. You know what ND's best road win is? Villa-"8-9 in the Big East"-nova. Second best would be Seton Hall, I guess. Meanwhile, Xavier is 6-2 on the road in the A-10, with wins against UMass, Rhode Island, and Dayton. They also beat Indiana by 15 on a neutral floor. I find this to be completely unreasonable. Xavier really does need to get Lavender healthy, though. His ankle is far from 100%.
Louisville is finally up to a 3. They play @Georgetown tomorrow at noon. I would think that the winner of that game will be on the second line on Monday (the Hoyas are currently a 2).
There's a basketball game in Durham tomorrow night, apparently. It might even be on TV. The winner of that one has to be a 1. If Duke goes 14-2 in the ACC, including a sweep of UNC, they have to be a top seed. They were also 12-1 against the 35th most difficult non-conference schedule in the country, and that one loss came in OT on a 3 at the buzzer.
It doesn't really matter, but UNC has a great draw in this bracket. The 2-4 seeds in their region are Georgetown, Stanford, and Butler (Hibbert vs. the Lopez brothers on the second weekend would be fun, wouldn't it). Unless Carolina has to face a tough 8/9, that's pretty much a free pass to the Elite 8. And once there, their opponent cannot compare with some of the other 2/3 seeds like Kansas, Louisville and Duke.
I have a flight to Chicago in a bit, but if Lunardi updates his bracket soon I will likely write about that as well.
Update: Lunardi has updated his.
His top two lines are the same as Parrish, except for one- Lunardi has Wisconsin as a 2, while Parrish has Georgetown. I have no problem with this, and Georgetown has the opportunity to prove themselves tomorrow against Louisville. I do wonder how much Wisconsin's easy B10 schedule plays into this.
Xavier is a 3, and Notre Dame is a 4. So at least somebody is paying attention.
There is some disagreement on Butler. They are a 6 in Lunardi's a 4 for Parrish. Their #18 RPI splits the difference. Their #35 Pomeroy rank does not. They'll be overseeded regardless, but I'd go with 5 for now.
UConn is the opposite; 6th for Parrish, 4th for Lunardi. I am not a big fan of this team, but a 12-5 BE record, plus a win @Indiana, and their only non-con losses coming against Memphis and Gonzaga, deserves higher than a 6.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Bracketology Updates
Both Lunardi and Parrish updated their brackets today.After sweeping the Arizona schools on the road, UCLA moves up to the top line in both brackets. Amazingly, they are still getting completely screwed over in both cases.
In Lunardi's bracket, Kansas is the two seed. Anecdotally, I think these are the two best teams in the country, and the numbers agree with this. I understand Tennessee, Memphis and UNC have pretty RPIs, but raise your hand if you think Tennessee is better than Kansas. This probably won't last, since the Bruins and Jayhawks will both be favorites to win their conference tourneys. But it really would be a shame if these two teams met in the Elite 8 for the second year in a row. (And what would be even more annoying is if UCLA won, and people got to continue the "Bill Self just isn't a good enough coach to get his team past the E8" nonsense.)
Parrish has Duke as the 2 seed in the West, and Wisconsin the 3. This is actually a pretty good draw for UCLA; I would love to see Paulus try to guard Collison, that'd be amusing. But the 2/3 seeds wouldn't matter if UCLA fell short of the Elite 8, and that's entirely possible in the proposed bracket, since Louisville is the four seed.
What does this team have to do to get some respect? They were not impressive in non-conference play, but they had a good excuse- they were missing their best player. In Padgett's first game back, they lost to Cincinnati by 1. In 17 games since, they are 15-2 and have outscored their opponents by 11.5 ppg. They are the best team in the Big East. The books have certainly caught on; they were favored by 7.5 against Notre Dame (this did not end well), and 11 against Villanova. I almost hope they lose @Georgetown on Saturday, so they continue to be overlooked. This is a really good team.
Xavier is now a 2 seed in both brackets. They have a big game @St. Joseph's on Thursday; if they lose that one, I would imagine they'll fall down to a 3.
Parrish has Butler as a 4. The same seed as Louisville. If these two teams met on a neutral court tomorrow, how many points would the Cardinals be favored by? Nine? This whole process really amazes me sometimes.
After splitting their two games this weekend, Washington St. moves up to a 6 seed in both projections. I still think they will end up higher than this. They host Washington on Saturday, and then will likely be the 3rd seed in the Pac-10 tourney. The Cougars should end up being at least a 5.
Parrish has Miami (FL) as a 7 seed. I will be picking against them in the first round; I don't even think it matters who their opponent is. Their non-conference is weak (Pomeroy has their non-con schedule as the 263rd most challenging). They are 7-7 in the ACC, but five of those seven wins have come by three points or less. Four of their seven losses have come by double digits. Some will look at this and say they know how to win close games. I will choose to conclude that they are not very good.
Photo by: me. (We had pretty good seats yesterday.)
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Handicapping The Top Line
Joe Lunardi published an article today looking at which teams could possibly end up as #1 seeds. The way he sees it, there are seven schools fighting for four spots. Here are the percentage chances that he gives each team of securing a top seed:
Memphis: 85%
Tennessee: 60%
UCLA: 60%
North Carolina: 55%
Duke: 45%
Kansas: 45%
Texas: 40%
This was obviously before Texas' win in Manhattan tonight (thanks for nothing, Bill Walker), so they're probably a little higher.
First of all, these only add up to 390%. Either Lunardi can't add, or he thinks there's a 10% chance a team like Xavier sneaks onto the top line. I tend to think it's the former; if he thinks Xavier has a 10% chance at a 1 seed, he should have said so.
I agree that Memphis is the most likely. They're clearly a 1 right now, and it is extremely unlikely that they lose before the C-USA tournament- according to Pomeroy, they have a 85% chance of winning their final four conference games. They are then hosting the C-USA tournament, so it would be quite a shock if they lost there. Even with this, it's possible that they stay on the top line with a loss. 85% looks about right; I might even go as high as 90%.
I would say the rest of the percentages look about right as well. UCLA and Tennessee are clearly the front runners after Memphis. Texas is now in good position to finish 14-2 in the B12; I think they're probably the fourth most likely at this point. I'm not quite sure what to make of UNC, with Lawson missing so much time.
Along with Xavier, Stanford and Louisville are two other teams worth watching. The Cardinal clearly doesn't belong on the time line at this point, but they have the opportunity to make some noise, playing at USC and UCLA to finish out the Pac-10 season. If they sweep those, as well as their home games against the Washington schools this weekend, they'll finish 15-3 in the Pac-10, and hold at least a share of the conference title. If they then win the tournament, you have to think they'd receive strong consideration for a 1 seed. It's a longshot, but one worth considering.
Louisville is in a similar situation. If they take care of Notre Dame and Villanova at home, and then win @Georgetown, they'll finish 15-3 in the Big East. If they do this, and then win the conference tournament, they would have a case. This is actually a more likely scenario than Stanford's, since Louisville winning @Georgetown is much more likely than Stanford winning on the road against both USC and UCLA.
Memphis: 85%
Tennessee: 60%
UCLA: 60%
North Carolina: 55%
Duke: 45%
Kansas: 45%
Texas: 40%
This was obviously before Texas' win in Manhattan tonight (thanks for nothing, Bill Walker), so they're probably a little higher.
First of all, these only add up to 390%. Either Lunardi can't add, or he thinks there's a 10% chance a team like Xavier sneaks onto the top line. I tend to think it's the former; if he thinks Xavier has a 10% chance at a 1 seed, he should have said so.
I agree that Memphis is the most likely. They're clearly a 1 right now, and it is extremely unlikely that they lose before the C-USA tournament- according to Pomeroy, they have a 85% chance of winning their final four conference games. They are then hosting the C-USA tournament, so it would be quite a shock if they lost there. Even with this, it's possible that they stay on the top line with a loss. 85% looks about right; I might even go as high as 90%.
I would say the rest of the percentages look about right as well. UCLA and Tennessee are clearly the front runners after Memphis. Texas is now in good position to finish 14-2 in the B12; I think they're probably the fourth most likely at this point. I'm not quite sure what to make of UNC, with Lawson missing so much time.
Along with Xavier, Stanford and Louisville are two other teams worth watching. The Cardinal clearly doesn't belong on the time line at this point, but they have the opportunity to make some noise, playing at USC and UCLA to finish out the Pac-10 season. If they sweep those, as well as their home games against the Washington schools this weekend, they'll finish 15-3 in the Pac-10, and hold at least a share of the conference title. If they then win the tournament, you have to think they'd receive strong consideration for a 1 seed. It's a longshot, but one worth considering.
Louisville is in a similar situation. If they take care of Notre Dame and Villanova at home, and then win @Georgetown, they'll finish 15-3 in the Big East. If they do this, and then win the conference tournament, they would have a case. This is actually a more likely scenario than Stanford's, since Louisville winning @Georgetown is much more likely than Stanford winning on the road against both USC and UCLA.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Checking In
A couple weeks ago I had two posts (linked below) examining the biggest discrepancies between the AP poll and the Pomeroy ratings. Today I'm going to go back and see how these teams have done since. First, those who were...
"Under the Radar"
Marquette
Then: AP #13, Pomeroy #3
Since: 3-3
Now: AP #16, Pomeroy #9
I was very wrong on this one. Marquette added two more ugly road losses to their resume, at the hands of Louisville and Connecticut. It looked like they might be turning around after they finally got a conference road win against Cincinnati on Saturday, but then they turned around and got blown out at home by Louisville tonight. Definitely not a top ten team, and both of their current rankings will fall after tonight's game is factored in.
Xavier
Then: AP #20, Pomeroy #9
Since: 4-1
Now: AP #13, Pomeroy #10
Xavier was definitely underranked at 20, and may still be at 13. They surprisingly lost @Temple by 19, but have been excellent since, beating a shorthanded Dayton team by 26 at home, and winning @UMass by 12. They have three of their next four on the road, so it might be tough to stay this high in the polls, but luckily that doesn't really matter. Lunardi currently has them as a 3 seed in the NCAAs- they will likely end up as a 3 or 4, and are certainly not a team I'd want to face.
Drake
Then: AP #26, Pomeroy #15
Since: 6-0
Now: AP #15, Pomeroy #25
This is interesting. Drake's win streak has reached 18, allowing them to move all the way up to 15th in the AP. Yet they've fallen ten spots on Pomeroy's ratings, since each of their last six wins have come by ten points our less. They also have a very difficult upcoming schedule, with visits to Illinois St., Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa in the next two weeks. I bet they'll lose one or two of those, and fall back under the radar until March. Lunardi currently has them as a 3- I'd be surprised if they stay that high, they'll probably end up at 4 or 5.
Wisconsin
Then: AP #17, Pomeroy #6
Since: 5-1
Now: AP #8, Pomeroy #5
The Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten. I don't see all that much room for debate at this point. Michigan St. has suffered borderline embarrassing losses against Iowa and Penn St. Indiana somehow lost to UConn at home, and then lost @Wisconsin by 13. Meanwhile the Badgers are 8-1, with their only loss coming at a surprisingly tough Purdue team. They do have five of their last nine on the road (although the last one is @Northwestern, which barely counts), but should be able to scure at least a 3 seed in March.
And the teams I was quite critical of:
"They're Not That Good"
Vanderbilt
Then: AP #16, Pomeroy #65
Since: 2-3
Now: AP #23, Pomeroy #75
Vandy is still ranked? Seriously? Let's look at their SEC road games:
1/12 Kentucky; lost 79-73 in OT
1/17 Tennessee; lost 80-60
1/27 Florida; lost 86-64
1/30 Mississippi; lost 74-58
They're 3-4 in a weak SEC because they've beaten South Carolina, LSU, and Auburn at home. I honestly have no idea how they are still 23rd in the AP, and 20th (!) in the ESPN poll.
Dayton
Then: AP #14, Pomeroy #44
Since: 1-4
Now: Zero AP votes, Pomeroy #69
Dayton has been really bad. They've lost to UMass, Xavier, Richmond and Rhode Island by an average of 16 points.
The Flyers do have a good excuse. They've been without freshman Chris Wright (broken ankle) for this entire stretch, and Charles Little (broken foot) missed the Xavier and Richmond games. Little is back now, but Wright won't return until March. Their schedule down the stretch isn't bad- they've gotten all their difficult road games out of the way- but they're down to a 10 seed in the latest Bracketology, and that 25-point win against Pitt seems like a distant memory.
Villanova
Then: AP #25, Pomeroy #73
Since: 2-5
Now: Zero AP votes, Pomeroy #89
This overrated post was pretty solid. Villanova has been the worst of the three- after getting demolished by St. Joe's on Monday night, they've now lost five straight. At 3-6 in the Big East, they won't make the tournament unless they catch fire down the stretch. They were certainly never one of the 25 best teams in the country, that was a product of going 10-1 against a weak (#216 in the country) non-conference schedule.
"Under the Radar"
Marquette
Then: AP #13, Pomeroy #3
Since: 3-3
Now: AP #16, Pomeroy #9
I was very wrong on this one. Marquette added two more ugly road losses to their resume, at the hands of Louisville and Connecticut. It looked like they might be turning around after they finally got a conference road win against Cincinnati on Saturday, but then they turned around and got blown out at home by Louisville tonight. Definitely not a top ten team, and both of their current rankings will fall after tonight's game is factored in.
Xavier
Then: AP #20, Pomeroy #9
Since: 4-1
Now: AP #13, Pomeroy #10
Xavier was definitely underranked at 20, and may still be at 13. They surprisingly lost @Temple by 19, but have been excellent since, beating a shorthanded Dayton team by 26 at home, and winning @UMass by 12. They have three of their next four on the road, so it might be tough to stay this high in the polls, but luckily that doesn't really matter. Lunardi currently has them as a 3 seed in the NCAAs- they will likely end up as a 3 or 4, and are certainly not a team I'd want to face.
Drake
Then: AP #26, Pomeroy #15
Since: 6-0
Now: AP #15, Pomeroy #25
This is interesting. Drake's win streak has reached 18, allowing them to move all the way up to 15th in the AP. Yet they've fallen ten spots on Pomeroy's ratings, since each of their last six wins have come by ten points our less. They also have a very difficult upcoming schedule, with visits to Illinois St., Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa in the next two weeks. I bet they'll lose one or two of those, and fall back under the radar until March. Lunardi currently has them as a 3- I'd be surprised if they stay that high, they'll probably end up at 4 or 5.
Wisconsin
Then: AP #17, Pomeroy #6
Since: 5-1
Now: AP #8, Pomeroy #5
The Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten. I don't see all that much room for debate at this point. Michigan St. has suffered borderline embarrassing losses against Iowa and Penn St. Indiana somehow lost to UConn at home, and then lost @Wisconsin by 13. Meanwhile the Badgers are 8-1, with their only loss coming at a surprisingly tough Purdue team. They do have five of their last nine on the road (although the last one is @Northwestern, which barely counts), but should be able to scure at least a 3 seed in March.
And the teams I was quite critical of:
"They're Not That Good"
Vanderbilt
Then: AP #16, Pomeroy #65
Since: 2-3
Now: AP #23, Pomeroy #75
Vandy is still ranked? Seriously? Let's look at their SEC road games:
1/12 Kentucky; lost 79-73 in OT
1/17 Tennessee; lost 80-60
1/27 Florida; lost 86-64
1/30 Mississippi; lost 74-58
They're 3-4 in a weak SEC because they've beaten South Carolina, LSU, and Auburn at home. I honestly have no idea how they are still 23rd in the AP, and 20th (!) in the ESPN poll.
Dayton
Then: AP #14, Pomeroy #44
Since: 1-4
Now: Zero AP votes, Pomeroy #69
Dayton has been really bad. They've lost to UMass, Xavier, Richmond and Rhode Island by an average of 16 points.
The Flyers do have a good excuse. They've been without freshman Chris Wright (broken ankle) for this entire stretch, and Charles Little (broken foot) missed the Xavier and Richmond games. Little is back now, but Wright won't return until March. Their schedule down the stretch isn't bad- they've gotten all their difficult road games out of the way- but they're down to a 10 seed in the latest Bracketology, and that 25-point win against Pitt seems like a distant memory.
Villanova
Then: AP #25, Pomeroy #73
Since: 2-5
Now: Zero AP votes, Pomeroy #89
This overrated post was pretty solid. Villanova has been the worst of the three- after getting demolished by St. Joe's on Monday night, they've now lost five straight. At 3-6 in the Big East, they won't make the tournament unless they catch fire down the stretch. They were certainly never one of the 25 best teams in the country, that was a product of going 10-1 against a weak (#216 in the country) non-conference schedule.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
NCAA Tournament Odds, By Conference
BetUS has some odds up on how many teams each conference will send to the NCAA tournament. They are below. I've also included what teams Joe Lunardi has in the tournament in his latest Bracketology, with their seeds in parenthesis. Keep in mind that Lunardi's most recent bracket update was last Monday.
Atlantic 10
Over 3 -160 (53%)
Under 3 -120 (47%)
Lunardi: Xavier (6), Dayton (5), Rhode Island (9), UMass (9)
Xavier is in (I am a big fan of this Xavier team, if you haven't noticed). Dayton should be in, but they've been playing so poorly of late without Chris Wright. Lunardi has them pretty high before they got destroyed by Xavier, but they're probably a 6 or 7 at the moment. Wright is probably out for awhile longer, and they could continue to slip.
Rhode Island and UMass will probably end up being on the bubble. Three tournament teams seems about right for the A10; I think two is more likely than four.
Big 10
Over 4.5 -155 (57%)
Under 4.5 +115 (43%)
Lunardi: Wisconsin (3), Indiana (3), Michigan St. (3), Purdue (9), Ohio St. (11)
I wrote about the B10 the other day, so I won't spend too much time on it here. The top three are in, and I'd be surprised if OSU doesn't make it. This line makes sense; they'll probably end up with five, with Purdue or Minnesota being the fifth. But four is certainly possible.
Big 12
Over 5.5 -150 (56%)
Under 5.5 +110 (44%)
Lunardi: Kansas (1), Texas (3), Baylor (6), Kansas St. (7), Texas A&M (8)
Top two are in. Baylor is now 4-0 in the B12 after their 5OT win against TA&M. With the talent they have, KSU better make it. So that's four.
A&M is really digging a hole for themselves. They're 1-3 in conference, and haven't played Kansas or Texas yet. They beat Ohio St. in the preseason NIT, but the didn't do much else in non-conference. They are 0-3 on the road. They'll likely end up making it, but it might be close.
Okahoma has a decent shot. The three game win streak against Arkansas, Gonzaga and West Virginia will help. I'd think they'll be in if they get to nine wins in conference, which is doable.
Nebraska has a couple decent non-conference wins (ASU, Oregon), but they've been terrible on the road. I can't see them making it. Mizzou is 0-5 on the road, but they've beaten Texas and Purdue at home. They have eight losses already, it'll be tough for them to get in.
So that's four teams that should get in, two that probably will, and couple that are very questionable. The O/U looks dead on; probably six, possibly only five.
Big East
Over 7.5 -120 (50%)
Under 7.5 -120 (50%)
LunardI: Georgetown (2), West Virginia (7), Louisville (12), Pittsburgh (4), Notre Dame (7), Connecticut (12), Marquette (4), Providence (10), Villanova (8)
The Big East just has way too many teams. 7.5 sounds good to me. Providence is a tournament team? Really? That would surprise me.
MWC
Over 3 -150 (56%)
Under 3 +110 (44%)
Lunardi: San Diego St. (12)
Three seems pretty high for the MWC, doesn't it? I really don't know. Someone who follows this conference a lot more closely than myself could provide some insight here. That's why we have comments.
Pac-10
Over 6 -160 (56%)
Under 6 +120 (44%)
Lunardi: UCLA (2), Arizona St. (8), Arizona (8). Washington St. (2), Oregon (9), Stanford (4)
UCLA, Washington St., Arizona, Stanford should all get in. Lunardi had USC as the last team out, I think they'll probably end up getting in. Arizona St. started off 4-0 in the P10, but that was because they played three home games, faced Arizona without Bayless, and won @Cal in OT. I think ASU and Oregon could both get in. This line might push, but I'd be really surprised if they only get five.
SEC
Over 5.5 -170 (59%)
Under 5.5 +130 (41%)
Lunardi: Tennessee (1), Vanderbilt (5), Mississippi St. (10), Mississippi (5)
Tennessee is in. Vandy and Ole Miss would have to have Clemson level collapses to miss the tourney. Florida really did nothing in non-conference, but their SEC record should be enough to offset that. Same goes for Mississippi St., but they're already 4-0 in the SEC.
Arkansas will probably be on the bubble. UGA lost to Tulane and East Tennessee St. in Hawaii, so it's difficult to take them seriously.
I thought this line was really high when I first saw it, since I don't think of the SEC as being very good this year. Which is true, and they may only have one team higher than a 6 seed. But they've got all these 6-11 seeds, so there's a good chance they sneak six teams in.
They didn't have ACC odds, I have no idea why.
Atlantic 10
Over 3 -160 (53%)
Under 3 -120 (47%)
Lunardi: Xavier (6), Dayton (5), Rhode Island (9), UMass (9)
Xavier is in (I am a big fan of this Xavier team, if you haven't noticed). Dayton should be in, but they've been playing so poorly of late without Chris Wright. Lunardi has them pretty high before they got destroyed by Xavier, but they're probably a 6 or 7 at the moment. Wright is probably out for awhile longer, and they could continue to slip.
Rhode Island and UMass will probably end up being on the bubble. Three tournament teams seems about right for the A10; I think two is more likely than four.
Big 10
Over 4.5 -155 (57%)
Under 4.5 +115 (43%)
Lunardi: Wisconsin (3), Indiana (3), Michigan St. (3), Purdue (9), Ohio St. (11)
I wrote about the B10 the other day, so I won't spend too much time on it here. The top three are in, and I'd be surprised if OSU doesn't make it. This line makes sense; they'll probably end up with five, with Purdue or Minnesota being the fifth. But four is certainly possible.
Big 12
Over 5.5 -150 (56%)
Under 5.5 +110 (44%)
Lunardi: Kansas (1), Texas (3), Baylor (6), Kansas St. (7), Texas A&M (8)
Top two are in. Baylor is now 4-0 in the B12 after their 5OT win against TA&M. With the talent they have, KSU better make it. So that's four.
A&M is really digging a hole for themselves. They're 1-3 in conference, and haven't played Kansas or Texas yet. They beat Ohio St. in the preseason NIT, but the didn't do much else in non-conference. They are 0-3 on the road. They'll likely end up making it, but it might be close.
Okahoma has a decent shot. The three game win streak against Arkansas, Gonzaga and West Virginia will help. I'd think they'll be in if they get to nine wins in conference, which is doable.
Nebraska has a couple decent non-conference wins (ASU, Oregon), but they've been terrible on the road. I can't see them making it. Mizzou is 0-5 on the road, but they've beaten Texas and Purdue at home. They have eight losses already, it'll be tough for them to get in.
So that's four teams that should get in, two that probably will, and couple that are very questionable. The O/U looks dead on; probably six, possibly only five.
Big East
Over 7.5 -120 (50%)
Under 7.5 -120 (50%)
LunardI: Georgetown (2), West Virginia (7), Louisville (12), Pittsburgh (4), Notre Dame (7), Connecticut (12), Marquette (4), Providence (10), Villanova (8)
The Big East just has way too many teams. 7.5 sounds good to me. Providence is a tournament team? Really? That would surprise me.
MWC
Over 3 -150 (56%)
Under 3 +110 (44%)
Lunardi: San Diego St. (12)
Three seems pretty high for the MWC, doesn't it? I really don't know. Someone who follows this conference a lot more closely than myself could provide some insight here. That's why we have comments.
Pac-10
Over 6 -160 (56%)
Under 6 +120 (44%)
Lunardi: UCLA (2), Arizona St. (8), Arizona (8). Washington St. (2), Oregon (9), Stanford (4)
UCLA, Washington St., Arizona, Stanford should all get in. Lunardi had USC as the last team out, I think they'll probably end up getting in. Arizona St. started off 4-0 in the P10, but that was because they played three home games, faced Arizona without Bayless, and won @Cal in OT. I think ASU and Oregon could both get in. This line might push, but I'd be really surprised if they only get five.
SEC
Over 5.5 -170 (59%)
Under 5.5 +130 (41%)
Lunardi: Tennessee (1), Vanderbilt (5), Mississippi St. (10), Mississippi (5)
Tennessee is in. Vandy and Ole Miss would have to have Clemson level collapses to miss the tourney. Florida really did nothing in non-conference, but their SEC record should be enough to offset that. Same goes for Mississippi St., but they're already 4-0 in the SEC.
Arkansas will probably be on the bubble. UGA lost to Tulane and East Tennessee St. in Hawaii, so it's difficult to take them seriously.
I thought this line was really high when I first saw it, since I don't think of the SEC as being very good this year. Which is true, and they may only have one team higher than a 6 seed. But they've got all these 6-11 seeds, so there's a good chance they sneak six teams in.
They didn't have ACC odds, I have no idea why.
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