This Week's Links (9/29-10/3)

"MVP picks that may surprise you". Only if you expected competence. Which would've been unreasonable.

The voting for BPro's Internet Baseball Awards is now open.

I hadn't realized that the Rays had the lowest BA w/RISP in the league. I had noticed that the Twins got absurdly lucky.

Grant Balfour is awesome:

Q: What happened after you struck [Cabrera] out?
Balfour: I told him to go sit down. I think I might have mixed one or two words in with it.

Did Tony Pena Jr. have the worst offensive season ever?

BetED MLB Awards Odds

BetED has posted odds on all eight major awards. A quick run through the big four; leave any thoughts on the RoY and MoY odds in the comments.

AL MVP

These are very interesting. There is no way I'd take K-Rod at -250, and Hamilton at -200 seems even worse. The next two are very interesting though. If the Twins win the Central, I think Morneau will probably win (especially if he gets a big hit or two over the next few days). He is probably the best option here, at +450. Pedroia is also interesting; he may win by default if the Twins don't win the division.

NL MVP

Four guys at worse than even money. The juice on these things is always pretty high, but that is incredibly bad. I think they at least got the four guys right; I can't see how the MVP doesn't come from the pool of Berkman, Delgado, Howard, and Pujols. None of those are good odds though.

AL Cy Young

Interesting to note here that Matsuzaka, K-Rod, Halladay, Santana, and Mussina opened at +800, +900, +1000, +1500, and +2000, respectively. All of those are now higher, while Lee's line (-3000) hasn't moved; looks like they weren't getting any action on the other guys at first, and want people on anyone but Lee.

I don't see any starter beating out Lee, who has a huge lead over the rest of the SPs in Cy Young Predictor. The only one I would consider is K-Rod at 15-1, which seems like a possibility if Lee pitches poorly against the White Sox on Sunday.

NL Cy Young

Once again, BetED has identified four contenders and is offering them at negative juice: Dempster, Lincecum, Volquez, and Webb. This time, though, they haven't chosen the top four guys. There's no way that Edinson Volquez has a better chance of winning than Johan Santana, who hasn't lost since June 28. He'll pitch on Sunday unless the Mets can't be eliminated (in which case they'd save him for a tiebreaker or G1 of the NLDS), and looks to be a good play at +1500.

This Week's Links (9/15-9/19)

The Astros need to shut up.

No. No. And no.

An interesting interview (under 9/16/08) with the Hilton Sportsbook manager about last week's NFL slate.

Lincecum's pitch counts in his last seven starts: 119, 115, 132, 92, 127, 138, 118.

Jamie Burke claims to have seen Major League 250 times.

The apple lives.

Handicapping the NL MVP Race

More MVP Tracker; NL this time. The Y/N column is whether the player's team makes the playoffs or not, and their last column is their score in that scenario.

Pretty similar to the AL, except with all-around guys in the same division battling it out at the top, rather than sluggers.

Strangely enough, Ludwick is ahead of Pujols if the Cardinals make the playoffs, but they flip-flop if (when?) they're home in October. That's because of Ludwick's 94-79 advantage in RBIs; each one is worth 0.84 points if you make the playoffs, and 0.55 if you don't. Either way, Pujols will probably finish higher, since he's more likely to sustain his performance over the next 5.5 weeks.

Utley may be a bit overrated here, since his +/- score over the last three years is an outrageous +77, but I do think he'll win if the Phillies reach the postseason. Howard's RBI advantage isn't enough to make up for the discrepancies in BA and strikeouts (which aren't even considered above). The Mets would most likely be sitting at home in that situation, knocking Wright out of the running.

Pujols would be his competition if the Cardinals get in as well; as ridiculous as it may be, the fact that he walks once every six PAs really hurts his candidacy, as it keeps his counting stats down. He could win, but, fair or not, I think a large contingent of the BBRAA has come to take his dominance for granted, as evidenced by his absurd ninth place finish in last year's voting.

If the Mets win the East, Wright moves to the top of the list. You could argue that Reyes and/or Beltran are having better years, but they don't match up with Wright in terms of perception. Reyes won't win because so much of his value comes from the position he plays, and his perceived poor attitude; Beltran won't win because so much of his value comes from how well he plays his position.

If St. Louis makes the playoffs, Pujols vs. Wright would probably be close. Pujols is obviously having a far superior year, with advantages in BA, BB%, and ISO. Wright has 18 more RBIs, but I think Pujols would probably win that matchup, although there's only about a 10% chance both those teams reach October.

Braun was in a good position with his .300/30/84 line until he got hurt, but the nine games he's missed over the past couple weeks have really hurt him. He would need to outplay Wright the rest of the way, with the Brewers making the playoffs and the Mets winning their division.

If the Marlins with the East, and the Brewers take the WC, Hanley's probably in good shape. I'm not going to hold my breath; losing two of three to the Giants is pretty devastating to their playoff hopes.

Odds:

This Week's Links (8/11-8/15)

Drop whatever you're doing and go enter the NFL Totals Contest. Now.

Outs Per Swing talks to Will Carroll about the Rays.

Anyone know what the odds were on the thrilling Men's 4X100 freestyle relay? I never checked.

BBTF's Mike Emeigh breaks down David Price's AAA debut.

An early frontrunner for a potential "Worst MVP Arguments" list.

Riggleman's response to Silva's absurd comments was encouraging.

Arkansas basketball will be without PG Patrick Beverley next season.

MGL breaks down how much losing Longoria and Crawford hurts Tampa's chances. (Not enough Rays links. I know.)

Bodog NL MVP Odds

As Dachs pointed out, the 1,000:1 odds for "Andrew" are a nice touch.

Utley is definitely the favorite, although since the Phillies are only about 50-50 to make the playoffs, I wouldn't touch +400. His name has also been mentioned a lot in the mainstream media, with the whole "three different Phillies in three years" thing.

The next four guys are on teams unlikely to make the playoffs (not that they all won't), which seems unusual. Pujols is overvalued because his team isn't as good as their current record indicates. The same can probably be said for Hanley; he'd be right in there if the Marlins made the playoffs, but if you're high on the Marlins, there are better ways to bet on them.

Now that Chipper is down to .376, his traditional stats (18 HRs, 18 RBIs) really don't jump off the page. They'd be fine if the Braves made the playoffs, but that's currently a longshot. That .472 OBP sure is nice though.

Berkman's team is both bad and confused, which won't help his cause. I think Wright probably represents the best value here. Besides Utley, are any of these other guys really more likely to win the award than him? He is currently at .282/17/70, with 11 stolen bases and 24 doubles. That batting average is likely to go up, as his career BA is .307; his BABiP this year is 34 points below his career average. The Mets are far from locks to make the playoffs, but you can really say that about any NL team except the Cubs.

Which brings us to Chicago. Aramis Ramirez's line is almost identical to Wright's, at .285/17/66. So is there value at 35-1? I suppose, but this is why predicting what a bunch of sportswriters will do is so hard. The odds say Lee and his .306/15/56 line are more likely, and that's probably the case, because he's more of a name and has contended before, finishing third in 2005. Neither has been involved in many MVP debates so far this season, and unless one of them has a huge second half, I think that trend is likely to continue.

I'm not sure how Reyes is only 15-1; how could an Anti All-Star win the MVP? Howard is hitting .234 and on pace to strike out 218 times. Teixeira, Uggla, and Holliday don't play on good enough teams to take such short odds. Fielder not making the All-Star team shows how impressed people have been with his season so far. Beltran is a possibility, but 35-1 is probably about right.

Mauer's sixth place finish in '06 does not bode well for Russ Martin's chances. If he gets up to 20 homers though, and the Dodgers make the playoffs, he might have a chance. Last year's Gold Glove will help. He's certainly more likely than Garrett Atkins. I am trying to figure out why Atkins is listed, and I just can't do it. .304/14/54 on a team that's 18 games under .500. The only thing I can think of is that people expect them to duplicate last year's run. But last year he finished at .301/25/111 and didn't get any votes. So, no, I wouldn't take him at 50-1.

Bodog AL MVP Odds

On to Bodog's MVP odds. They're all listed prior to their write-ups, so I won't bother posting a table up top.

Josh Hamilton, +200
Last night certainly helped, although his odds haven't changed since Monday afternoon. The Triple Crown talk has fizzled, at least for the moment, as his average is down to .310. The MVP campaign is obviously still in full force though, as he has 25 more RBIs than anyone else in the league.

There are various concerns here. One is how his body will hold up. He played just 90 games last year, and only 26 after July 7. But the more important issue is the quality of his team. Thanks to a team ERA+ of 81, the Rangers are 7.5 games back in the West, and only fifth in the Wild Card race, six games behind Tampa. It's entirely possible that Hamilton wins the MVP, but he's got way too much going against him to be worth it at +200 in mid-July.

Justin Morneau, +400
Morneau is a former MVP, has 68 RBIs, and his team is overachieving. That is essentially his campaign at the moment. Considering the Twins' chances of making the playoffs are about +400, and it's highly unlikely he wins the award if they don't, this is certainly not a good price.

Ian Kinsler, +550
This number actually came out at +400. There is no doubt Kinsler's having a great year, hitting .337/.397/.548 with 23 steals in 24 attempts. The second baseman leads the league in VORP, at 52.4. But the MVP? Even with his first half, he hasn't received much hype at all. He runs into the same problem as Hamilton, of playing on a third place team, except Kinsler is miles behind him in terms of name recognition, public perception, and the ever-important RBIs (Kinsler has 58).

Alex Rodriguez, +750
He missed three weeks, which means his counting stats won't jump off the page at the end of the year, so the Yankees would have to make a run at the playoffs for him to have a shot. He does have a current line of .312/19/53, so it's not unreasonable to think he could end up at .310/40/115. The problem is that won't be good enough if the Yankees don't make the playoffs, and it's far from a lock if they do. He's got a shot, but it's probably more like 12-1.

Carlos Quentin, +1200
I'd say this is the best value on the board. Quentin is looking great in the HR (22) and RBI (70) categories, and his batting average isn't bad at .276 (his OBP is .375; he walks a lot, but I doubt that'll help his case too much). He has the added advantage of his team is the favorite to win their division. If he had more of a name, he'd probably be the second favorite after Hamilton.

As it stand, though, the fact that he was a relative unknown before this year will hinder his campaign. It also makes it unlikely he can sustain this pace--his PECOTA, pro-rated for 650 PAs, coming into the year was .263/17/77. Even considering that, I think we'll start hearing a lot more about him in the national media if the White Sox stay on top of the Central, and he's got a chance at winning the MVP.

Jermaine Dye, +1500
Manny Ramirez, +1500
Evan Longoria, +2000
J.D. Drew, +2000
Joe Mauer, +2000

Dye would have to catch up to Quentin--he only has 56 RBIs--to receive any serious consideration. Considering some of the years that Manny has had without ever even finishing second, he would have to have an absolutely enormous second half. Longoria has gotten a lot of attention recently, but he's still only at .275/16/53, and his team isn't exactly a lock to make the playoffs at this point. Drew is having a monster year--.302/.412/.572--but his counting stats aren't as impressive, and it's likely that his reputation precedes him with a loft of the writers. Most of Mauer's value is in his position, his defense, and his OBP, which aren't exactly in the forefront of the voters' minds.

Francisco Rodriguez, +2500
Grady Sizemore, +2500
Kevin Youkilis, +2500
Carl Crawford, +3000
Mariano Rivera, +3000
Milton Bradley, +3000
Miguel Cabrera, +5000

Did you know K-Rod has walked 26 guys in 42 innings? That certainly doesn't portend well for his ERA over the next 2.5 months. Thigpen in '90 isn't the great comparison, since he had a better ERA (1.83), but his team didn't make the playoffs (he finished 5th). In '03, when Gagne went 55/55 with three losses and a 1.20 ERA, the Dodgers missed the playoffs and he finished sixth, while winning the Cy Young. The best comparison is probably Smoltz in 2002; 55 saves, 3.25 ERA, Braves won the division by 19 games. He finished eighth.

Field, +550
The only hitters I can reasonably makes a case for here--and this is really stretching it--are Vlad, Curtis Granderson, Jim Thome, and Magglio. I guess you can throw Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay in the mix, and maybe some unlisted closers--Papelbon, Nathan, maybe Jenks. Regardless, I can't see there being any value in this. Those guys are all real longshots.

Dissenting MVP Voters, Part 2

One of the guys who voted for Magglio wrote an article defending himself. "Defending."

"I voted for Magglio Ordonez of the Tigers instead of Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees. Only one other voter of 28 agreed. That voter was Jim Hawkins of the Oakland Press, who clearly saw the same season I did, and the same reasons to vote for Ordonez as I did. His vote was as much validation for mine as my vote was for his, because it meant Ordonez made the identical impression on us both."

Isn't the complete opposite true? Isn't the fact that the only other guy who voted for Magglio was also from Detroit validation that you're both homers?

"I did it because I thought Ordonez was more valuable to his team than A-Rod was to his, but also for specific statistical reasons: such as the wide disparity between Ordonez's batting average (.363-.314) and more so because Ordonez hit .429 with runners in scoring position compared to .333 by A-Rod."

I can play this game too. Victor Martinez slugged 1.120 with runners on first and third. He gets my MVP vote for that reason.

"I defy you to look at the following "clutch" stats and come away thinking that David Ortiz Magglio Ordonez was a better clutch hitter this year than Alex Rodriguez."

"I think a 49-point difference in batting average and a 96-point difference in their averages with runners in scoring position, the clutch stat to home runs' glamour, more than offset the obvious reasons to vote for A-Rod."

It is really too bad that there isn't a simple statistic I can use to completely disprove this...

2007 WPA leaders:
Alex Rodriguez, 7.51
Magglio Ordonez, 6.27

"If you want to find writers worried about the repercussions of their votes, sir, the ranks of the Baseball Writers Association is not the place to look."

Sure. Whatever. But it's a fantastic place to look if you want to find writers who lack a basic understanding of how to value baseball players.

Related: The other Magglio voter was already trying to defend his decision seven weeks ago [Oakland Press]

Rollins Takes NL MVP

I've been going over this for the last ten minutes, and I'm still convinced I'm missing something. There are 32 voters. 1+4+12+7+1+1+2= 28. 32-28=4.

Four of the voters didn't have Wright on their ballot. Four people, whose job it is to write about baseball, did not think that David Wright was one of the ten most valuable players in the National League.

Troy Tulowitzki got a third place vote. This makes me very happy.

I like to think one guy's ballot had Wright second, Rollins fifth, and Fielder eighth.

It was pointed out over at MetsBlog (which is running really slowly for some reason) that this is the second year in a row that the winner wasn't the most valuable player on his own team. Good work by everybody involved.

Pujols is like the perfect storm. High expectations, bad April, bad team, great defensively, walks a ton. This is a guy who should have been top 5 on every ballot finishes 9th.

The fact that Ryan Howard finished ahead of Jake Peavy, Chase Utley, Chipper Jones and Pujols is an absolute joke. I don't know how else to say this.

I'm assuming that the two Milwaukee writers had Fielder first? And who else, exactly? Why?

I'm sure there's a lot more here, but I have a flight to catch. Rip away in the comments, I'll moderate them as soon as I can.

Related: The Most Valuable Copy Creator Award (BP Unfiltered, Sheehan)

The Dissenting MVP Voters

Alex Rodriguez easily won the MVP, but it was not unanimous, as Magglio Ordonez received two of the 28 first place votes. 28 total voters means that there are two from each AL city. At this point, it's probably pretty obvious who voted for Magglio. From MLB.com (and FanHouse):

"But in the minds of Jim Hawkins of the Oakland Press in Pontiac, Mich., and Tom Gage of the Detroit News, Ordonez had the numbers worthy of recognition.

Hawkins and Gage were the only two members of the Baseball Writers Association of America to cast a vote for someone other than A-Rod in the MVP race, and they both went with Ordonez."

Certainly no surprise there. Let's give them a chance to explain why they thought Magglio Ordonez was more valuable than Alex Rodriguez this year.

"I saw Magglio play every day," Hawkins said. "What I saw was a player having an MVP year. I have no quarrel with anyone who voted for A-Rod. He also had an MVP year. But with the injuries the Tigers had and the effort and performance I saw from Magglio, there's no question he had an MVP year."

This isn't first grade where everybody gets a ribbon for participating. We're voting on the American League MVP. This involves differentiating between players, and deciding who is most deserving of a first place vote. You have completely failed to do this. Let's see if Tom Gage can do any better.

"I went with what I saw. So many times, you have to vote off the stat sheet. I fully expected A-Rod to win. He had a great year. But I saw an MVP year. There were stats to back up the impression that I came away with from the regular season."

Wrong again. You clearly did not see an MVP year, as 93% of those who voted chose someone else. Anyway, an "MVP year" is not something you see, and know immediately. That doesn't even make any sense. And the stats do not back this up. Thus all of your non-Detroit colleagues looking at the stats and voting for A-Rod.

Back to Hawkins:

"A-Rod had a better supporting cast than Magglio did. I know for a fact the Tigers would not have been anywhere close and certainly not in Wild Card contention without Magglio."

The Tigers would not have finished six games out of the wild card without Magglio. I'm sure that would have been absolutely devastating to their fan base. A-Rod's WPA of 7.51 indicates that the Yankees likely would have missed the playoffs with an average third baseman. This is an argument for Magglio...how?

Gage, your turn.

"Home runs and RBIs grab everybody's attention, but why isn't it equally impressive that Magglio had a .363 batting average -- the highest by a Tiger since Norm Cash in 1961?"

If we were trying to determine whether Magglio's '07 season was the best performance by a Tiger in the last 46 years, this might be relevant information. We are not.

Finally, let's allow Hawkins to wrap this up.

"If there's any integrity in the vote, you can't vote for selfish reasons," he said. "That just doesn't enter into it. I expected a lot of calls. But [Ordonez had] the finest season I've ever seen a Tiger have since I've covered baseball. I don't take these things lightly. Knew what the response and accusations would be, but I voted for the player who I feel deserved it."

Let's say my favorite ice cream is chocolate, and yours is vanilla. If we were to debate the merits of these two flavors, would the central point of my argument be that the chocolate ice cream I had last night was the finest chocolate chocolate ice cream I've ever had since I've been eating chocolate ice cream?

No, it would not. That would be idiotic. Yet that is the argument these two writers are using. Not once did they say that Magglio Ordonez was better, or more valuable, than Rodriguez. They simply said that he was really good. Which is great- that's why there are nine other spots on your ballot.

Just like yesterday, the problem is in the thought process, rather than the result. If these guys had even attempted to make a coherent argument that Ordonez was better, that would be one thing. But they did not. From reading these comments, it is quite obvious that they are well aware that Alex Rodriguez was the most valuable player in the American League in 2007.

This didn't affect the outcome of the voting, as A-Rod won by 124. But that's not the point. This kind of bias can affect the result, and it has in the past- if LaVelle Neal (Minneapolis Star-Tribune) and George King (New York Post) hadn't blatantly disregarded the rules while leaving Pedro Martinez off their AL MVP ballot in 1999, he would have won the award over Ivan Rodriguez.

And don't try to tell me that this stuff doesn't matter. A-Rod got a $1.5MM bonus for winning his third MVP. Next year Curt Schilling will receive $1MM if he even gets one Cy Young vote. If Daisuke Matsuzaka wins the Cy next year, his '09 and '10 salaries get bumped up from $8MM to $10MM.

Sixty people get to vote on the MVP each year. That's it. The selection process is questionable to begin with- by excluding those whose work doesn't appear in print, they're guaranteeing that some of the best and most knowledgeable writers in the country won't get to vote. I promise you that if Joe Sheehan was given a ballot, he wouldn't make a mockery out of the process like these two have. You would think that the few people given the privilege of participating would take it seriously. Apparently that is asking far too much.

Photography: Detroit News, Oakland Press.

A-Rod Wins, But Not Unanimous

Good work by MVP Tracker. If there was ten point deduction for DHs, it would have nailed the top 5.

Here's a shocker:

"The only two first-place votes that didn't go to Rodriguez were from Tom Gage of The Detroit News and Jim Hawkins of The Oakland Press in Pontiac, Mich."

Somebody put Abreu seventh? The guy had the worst year of his career, pretty easily. A 114 OPS+ from a right fielder just seems like it's hard to get excited about. And he didn't go nuts with the counting stats either- 16 HRs, 101 RBIs. Strange.

Sorry, but Vlad was not the third most valuable player in the league. I would like to see the logic in putting him ahead of Ortiz/Magglio/Posada.

Pena's line is weird- two third place votes, but wasn't higher than 6th on any other ballots.

Same goes for Putz- a 4th, an 8th, and a 9th. That's less surprising though- it's just someone valuing relievers more than others.

Polanco probably deserved more support- 12th in VORP, and Dewan's system likes his glove (+12 plays). He was definitely better than Jeter (although that hardly makes him unique; Jeter was 11th in VORP, -34 plays)

Sabathia beats Beckett again, this time 11-2. A convincing margin.

Lowest VORPs to receive a vote:

Frank Thomas 31.5 (31st among AL hitters)
Justin Morneau 28.8 (39th)
Bobby Abreu 27.9 (42nd)

Tomorrow's ballot should be very interesting.

MVP Tracker: AL, 2007

The AL MVP will be announced this afternoon, so I thought I'd take at how MVP Tracker thinks the voting will shake out. Here's the top 10:

(I ran the numbers on these ten guys, as well as Hunter, Ichiro, Morneau, Guillen and Sheffield. If you think I left anyone out, please let me know.)

I think A-Rod will win unanimously, unless this guy has a vote. (And even then, I'm not entirely convinced he thinks Ortiz was the MVP, especially considering his line of reasoning. "Reasoning".)

Magglio is going to finish second; MVP Tracker gives the same penalty to first baseman and DHs (helping Ortiz), which is unrealistic and something I need to fix. It's also possible that I should incorporate some kind of extra bonus for catchers, since they tend to have fewer ABs and thus don't build up the counting stats. That hurts Posada (.338, 20, 90); he'll finish higher than seventh.

Carlos Pena, 2001-06; 19.6 AB/HR
2007: 10.7 AB/HR

Incredible. He should get votes (5th in VORP); I would guess he finishes between 6th and 8th.

Ortiz For MVP?

I was under the impression that there was no debate about the AL MVP. No matter how clueless you are, it's pretty clear that Alex Rodriguez was the best player in the American League this year.

I was incorrect. Apparently, Boston has to win absolutely everything at this point.

"Although it's a little tougher to see at the first glance of a stat sheet, Big Papi was as dangerous as ever this year -- and the real MVP of the American League."

This is actually not an unreasonable statement. He "only" had 35 HRs, but had 52 doubles, and a ridiculous .445 OBP. His 171 OPS+ was the highest of his career. A-Rod was better, but Ortiz had a pretty insane year himself.

But the problem with this article is the argument itself, rather than the general thought.

"Ortiz performed better in the clutch, outhitting the Yankees third baseman with runners in scoring position, .358 to .333, and also posting a higher OPS in the same situation, 1.142 to 1.138."

I defy you to look at the following "clutch" stats and come away thinking that David Ortiz was a better clutch hitter this year than Alex Rodriguez.

(Side note: A-Rod got hit SIX times with two outs & RISP. That's incredible.)

To say David Ortiz should be the MVP because he was a better clutch hitter than A-Rod this year is entirely unreasonable. FanGraphs keeps track of exactly how clutch each player is. A-Rod was +1.10 wins, Ortiz was -1.48. There is no argument here. Moving on.

"In the last week of the season, when every win became life or death, Papi somehow found a higher gear. Despite limping around on one good knee, Ortiz hit a mind-boggling .647 with a 2.139 OPS."

Is this guy serious? I especially like the "life or death" reference. The Red Sox clinched a playoff spot on Saturday, September 22. With seven games left in the season. I am unclear as to how they were playing "life or death" regular season games when they were assured of being in the playoffs.

"Of course, there's also the DH factor. The plodding Ortiz doesn't contribute on the basepaths and with the glove the way A-Rod does. But while A-Rod's 24 steals certainly deserve respect, they weren't the difference between wins and losses. For a Yankees team that averaged six runs a game, one steal a week wasn't exactly a monumental event."

A-Rod was only caught stealing four times, for an impressive SB rate of 85.7%. But this isn't "valuable" because...the Yankees score a lot of runs?

"His zone rating (number of plays a player makes within his "zone") and fielding percentage ranked in the middle of the pack and an adjusted zone rating stat offered by analysts at The Hardball Times put A-Rod second to last among AL starters."

Interesting. THT also keeps track of how valuable a player's overall contributions were in the form of Win Shares. So, because of A-Rod's poor fielding numbers, they probably have Ortiz being more valuable, right?

2007 AL Win Shares leaders:
1. Alex Rodriguez, 39
---
8. David Ortiz, 29

Oh.

You could probably make some vaguely coherent argument for Ortiz being the MVP if you concentrated on his leadership and dug up some numbers that showed A-Rod was really bad defensively.

Or, you argue Ortiz was more valuable because he was more clutch and was great in the last week of the season, and because A-Rod's steals are meaningless because the Yankees score so many runs. I'm glad Jason Tuohey made the right choice.

Photo: This Blog Sox.

Real MVPs, Take 3

In the comments yesterday, Matthew asked for yet another NL MVP analysis, this time using the Fielding Bible numbers rather than UZR. So here it is.

This first table is simply adding Dewan's numbers and each player's VORP. Dewan's numbers are in plays; each play is worth about 0.8 runs, thus the second column.

(I just used these six guys; the three who I think had the best years, and the three other leading candidates.)

Now, using adjusted WPA rather than VORP:

Either way, we get pretty similar results, although Wright and Utley switch places in the second table (I'm pretty sure this is because of Wright's 98 additional PAs; VORP is measured against replacement players, WPA vs. average players, so the month Utley missed hurts him more in terms of VORP).

The award (which will be announced next Tuesday) is going to go to someone in the bottom half of these rankings, most likely Rollins. I understand the arguments against the guys who were actually more valuable; Pujols' team didn't make the playoffs, Wright's collapsed down the stretch, and Rollins played 30 more games than Utley.

Having said that, when it comes down to it, the NL MVP isn't going to be one of the three most valuable players in the league, and that's pretty ridiculous.

Undeserving MVPs

Yesterday's annoucement of the Gold Glove winners got me thinking about how dumb all of these awards are. My original idea was to look at the worst MVP and Cy Young selections since 1995, but I found that there have been so many idiotic choices for MVP that I could make an entire post out of just that.

Here are, as I see it, the five least deserving MVP winners of the past 12 years:

5. 1998 NL MVP, Sammy Sosa over Mark McGwire

Sosa: .308/.377/.647, 66 HR, 158 RBI, 160 OPS+, 68.3 VORP
McGwire: .299/.470/.752, 70 HR, 147 RBI, 216 OPS+, 104.3 VORP

If you're trying to win an MVP that you don't deserve, there are two important things to do: drive in more runs than your competition, and walk a lot less. The voters pay pretty much no attention to walks now, and I would imagine it was even worse nine years ago. Sosa had a slightly higher BA, but walked in 11% of his PAs, compared to McGwire's 24%.

The voting wasn't even close, with Sosa taking 30 of the 32 first place votes. The reason for that was that the Cubs made the playoffs, edging out the Giants and Mets for the Wild Card with 90 wins. But it's not like the Cardinals were terrible, as they won 83 games.

4. 2001 AL MVP, Ichiro Suzuki over Jason Giambi

Giambi has a huge advantage because he he had more than four times as many walks as Ichiro (129-30), but that wasn't taken into considseration, obviously. Ichiro won because he was new and fast and cool, and because the Mariners won 116 games. That's great, and there might be some kind of argument there if the A's finished in last, but they won 102 games (2nd best in the majors), running away with the Wild Card by 17 games.

Ichiro obviously has an edge in the field, but 50 runs? Not so much.

3. 1995 AL MVP, Mo Vaughn over Albert Belle

Look at those numbers. Mo Vaughn was not better than Albert Belle at any aspect of baseball in 1995. He did not hit for a higher average, he didn't get on base more, he didn't hit more HRs, their SLGs aren't even comparable...he didn't even have more RBIs. The voters may sometimes factor fielding in (or at least attempt to), but Mo Vaughn isn't exactly known for his glove. The Indians were also much better than the Red Sox in '95, as they won almost 70% of their games in the strike shortened season.

So, why did Mo Vaughn win this award? Because Albert Belle is not a nice person:

"In 1990, he threw a baseball into the stands, where it struck a fan who had been taunting him about his alcohol rehab....In 1986, he went after a heckler in the stands who was shouting racist insults at him; he was suspended while his team played in the College World Series."

And that's ignoring the stuff that hapened after this voting occured, which includes knocking Fernando Vina over, chasing trick-or-treaters down in his car, and cursing out Hannah Storm.

Lets see what Buster Olney, who somehow already had an MVP vote 12 years ago, has to say about the situation:

"At that time, baseball was in a very, very fragile state, having come off the strike year. I felt like the MVP was also who was most valuable to the game as a whole...I do think that's probably a human element that determines what happens sometimes. There are certain guys you want to vote for."

Great points. It doesn't matter who was better, or even who was more valuable to their team. What's important is who was "most valuable to the game as a whole", and who you "want to vote for". Because those aren't BS criteria or anything.

2. 1996 AL MVP, Juan Gonzalez over Alex Rodriguez

This one isn't even fun to complain about, it's just stupid. Gonzalez won because he had a lot of RBIs, and the Rangers won five more games than the Mariners. Rodriguez should have won because his OBP was 46 points higher, he had 19 more doubles, and he did all this as a shortstop.

1. 1999 AL MVP, Ivan Rodriguez over Pedro Martinez

There's an easy argument that Pedro should have won by simply looking at the numbers. But stats aren't necessary when you have geniuses like this:

"The scribes, LaVelle Neal of the Minneapolis's Star-Tribune and George King of the New York Post, said they could not justify giving the award to a player who participates every fifth day. Also, they argued, pitchers are eligible for the Cy Young Award, which Martinez won unanimously in 1999. That, even though MVP voters were asked to recluse themselves if they felt they could not vote for a pitcher."

This idiocy is similar to the most recent HOF voting, when a couple guys turned in blank ballots. The voters were asked to not participate in the balloting if they weren't going to consider pitchers. These two guys completely ignored this, and created their own criteria that went directly against the guidelines presented to them. This completely altered the outcome of the voting, as Pudge won by only 13 points.

In 1999, Pedro Martinez had a 2.07 ERA. The league average ERA was 5.02. He struck out over 13 guys per nine innings. But apparently a guy with a .356 OBP was more "valuable".

Photos: Boston.com, Washington Post, SI, Latino Sports Legends.

2007 Vegas Watch AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez

People just like being different, I guess. A-Rod actually got a lower percentage of votes than Pedroia did for AL RoY, which is kind of weird.

Anyway, this concludes the awards voting here. To summarize:
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, 71%
NL MVP: Matt Holliday, 41%
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia, 64%
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, 61%
AL RoY: Dustin Pedroia, 73%
NL RoY: Troy Tulowitzki, 60%

Both RoY awards are announced next Monday. My guesses on the winners of each of the eight major awards: Hurdle, Wedge, Braun, Pedroia, Peavy, Sabathia, Rollins, Rodriguez.

Braun is a complete guess; that one could go either way. I'm also not that confident in the Rollins prediction, as that could to go Holliday. Beyond that, I think the winners are fairly clear, although I have a bad feeling that Beckett is going to somehow edge out Sabathia.

In other news, college basketball starts tonight (kind of). Ten ESPN guys made Final Four picks. So that's 40 teams total; somehow there are only eight different teams included (UNC, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas, Louisville, Tennessee, Georgetown, and Michigan St.).

This Week's Links (10/29-11/2)

Rush the Court breaks down the first Coaches Poll of the season.

Because this post clearly got overlooked: OMDQ's interview with Erin Andrews.

Gammons on A-Rod's timing: "Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester are doing something Alex has never done- playing in a World Series game." Ouch.

At least the Japan Series had its share of drama.

"HatGuy": "Fact is, the Yankees are in far greater need of a Scott Brosius, a Bernie Williams, a Paul O’Neill than an uninspired (and uninspiring) A-Rod."

A more reasonable take on A-Guez.

BP released the results of the Internet Baseball awards; same results as the voting here, except for NL RoY.

MVP Tracker: AL, 2003-2006

About a month ago, I did a piece for The Hardball Times about a system that tries to predict who will win the MVP. I thought it might be interesting to look back at who the "MVP Tracker" predicts to win in previous years, and compare that with what actually happened. Today, I'll look at the AL voting over the past four years.

(Note: Don't directly compare the "PTS" between MVP Tracker and the actual voting; they use different scales. The thing to look at is the order, and even the size of the gaps.)

2003

This was A-Rod's last year with the Rangers, who finished 71-91, last in the AL West. MVP Tracker gets the top two right, but after that it's kind of a mess. Shannon Stewart, who was traded to the Twins on July 16, somehow conned his way into some votes with a VORP of 21 (This happened because the Twins went 46-23 after the trade; with Stewart hitting .322/.384/.470).

Manny, Nomar, and Ortiz probably split the vote to some extent. Although Manny pretty consistently does worse than expected because, well, he's Manny. Overall, MVP Predictor did horribly in '03, with a 0.23 correlation with the actual results among the top eight vote getters. This is hardly surprising, as the voting was wide open- 10 different guys got first place votes.

2004

MVP Tracker nails the Top 5 and the winner, but shuffles the order somewhat. I tried to incorporate an extra penalty for DHs into the system, but that never worked out; that's probably why Ortiz is too high. Again, Ramirez and Ortiz probably split votes, which allows Sheffield to jump up to 2nd. MVP Tracker did well in '04, with a 0.82 correlation among the top eight vote getters.

2005

This was the year when there was a big debate about whether Ortiz could win the MVP as a DH, and he came up short. MVP Tracker has A-Rod winning, with his advantage in BA making up for the deficit in RBIs.

My system is too high on Manny again. Please do not overlook his astounding UZR. And it really underestimates Vlad, who didn't have big power numbers, but had the "best hitter on a division winner" thing going on for him. Overall, a solid year for MVP Tracker, with a correlation of 0.73.

2006

I would first like to note that Travis Hafner, with a 79.7 VORP, was probably the best player in the AL last year. Just saying.

MVP Tracker had no doubt that Morneau would win, with all those RsBI on a division winner. (Side note: I feel like everybody, including myself, forgets that the Twins actually did win the Central last year, edging out the Tigers on the last day of the season. I guess that's because Detroit was in first all year, obviously went further in October, and who won the division didn't really matter all that much.)

The BBWAA just didn't do very well for themselves last year; Morneau and Thomas really have no place in this discussion. Ortiz and Hafner were probably the two best players, but, as DHs on non-playoff teams, were overlooked. Despite his defensive struggles, Jeter was pretty clearly deserving if you're going to give it to a guy on a playoff team.

2006 was MVP Tracker's best year, correctly predicting the top 3, and having a 0.83 correlation. Overall, I'm pretty happy with these results- it gets the winner right each time, and is right about the top two in three of the four years. And I'm pretty confident it will be right about this year's winner, not that that's particularly impressive.

In the THT article, I write about how my system thinks Holliday will win this year. If the Rockies had missed out on the playoffs, it would have predicted Rollins. I mention this because it's unclear to me when the MVP votes are due in. I've heard that it's the Monday after the regular season ends, even though there was technically one final regular season game on Monday night. If this is true, and the BBWAA doesn't take the 163rd game into account, I think Rollins wins.

Day 15: Updated Vegas Percentages

If the Red Sox had won last night these would probably look more like COL 35%, BOS 40% CLE 25%. They did not, however. If Cleveland advances, it looks like the WS is going to be about 60/40 in favor of the Indians, which means the lines would likely be CLE -170 (bet 17 to win 10), COL +150 (bet 10 to win 15).

At the beginning of the playoffs, Vegas had the AL at 63.4% to win the World Series. It's not surprising that the actual WS percentages is going to end up being lower, because a) the Rockies are pretty ridiculous right now, and b) if the Indians advance, they (fair or not, probably not) won't get as much respect as the Red Sox or Yankees would have.

There is no game tonight, for no reason other than World Series TV ratings. Normally, the only off days this late in a series are for travel. But right now, both teams are just sitting around in Cleveland, waiting for Game 5 on Thursday night. Thanks, Bud.

Whether Beckett was available to pitch last night is still unclear. It is quite difficult to evaluate Francona's decision without knowing that, but I guess the people who actually need to evaluate his performance (Epstein) know what actually happened.

At this point, the frontrunners for series MVP are probably Jhonny Peralta (.353/.389/.824, 2 2B, 2HR, 7 RBI) and Rafael Betancourt (5.1 high leverage innings, mostly against the middle of Bostons lineup, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 4K). If the series goes seven and Westbrook wins the deciding game, he would also have a strong case. If Boston wins three in a row, you'd have to assume it'll be Ramirez, Ortiz, or Beckett, but that would obviously hinge on what happens in games 5-7.

ALCS MVP Odds

Since this went so well last time (what odds do you think I could get on Webb winning the MVP now? 100:1?), let's have a look at BetUS.com's ALCS MVP odds.

The problem with these is that the house advantage is enormous. All of these percentages add up to 216%, which is a bit excessive- for regular futures odds, that number is usually about 140%.

Having said that, and with the understanding that I am probably making the same mistake here that I made with Webb, Beckett at 8:1 is my favorite here. I'm still half-convinced that Boston will go with him in G4, since starting Wakefield really seems like it would be a complete mess. And if it ends up being Beckett vs Westbrook in G7 (in Boston), the Red Sox would be enormous favorites.

Related: ALCS Playoff Prospectus: Indians versus Red Sox [BP, Jaffe]