Going The Wrong Way

Same as yesterday, except the guys who have gotten worse. All numbers still taken from FanGraphs, and through Monday's games.


All of Pena's rates are pretty much in line with his pre-2007 numbers. How do you explain last year, then? I have no idea.

Manny shows up here mostly because his '07 K% was much lower than it has been throughout his career. Beyond that, he's walking less but his power is back, so there's not much to worry about there.

Brendan Harris has two things going for him: he walks a decent amount, and he's a middle infielder. Beyond that, he strikes out a ton, is a poor defender, and does not hit for any power. Nobody from that trade is doing very well, really; Delmon Young can't even hit the ball in the air, Bartlett has a .551 OPS, and Garza has managed a 34:25 K:BB ratio in 62 innings.

Hall has seen his LD rate collapse, and his BABIP plummet right with it, from .326 to .267. Despite what his agent might think, platooning him seems like a good choice, as his career OPS is about 100 points higher against lefties, and almost 500 points higher this year (small sample, obviously). Also, anything that causes someone whose B-R page is sponsored by the Rob Deer Fan Club to get more ABs is probably a good move.

Iguchi is getting old, and playing in PETCO doesn't help. Mercifully, that's only a one-year contract.

This Week's Links (5/12-5/16)

Paul DePodesta, who is now working with the Padres, started a blog.

So did Bill Simmons. No comments though.

Manny.

Brian Sabean, being awesome. Comment #24 is hysterical.

A reason for decreased scoring- the weather?

So, Brian Bannister, why'd you struggle a couple starts ago? “Just had to let my Babip regress before I started dealing again.” And why do you pitch better during the day? "The hitters tell me my fastball looks faster when they’re still a little hungover.” Okay, got it. Thanks.

Chuck keeps it real.

Zumsteg has the right idea.

"Maybe it was a change-up"

Big thanks to Kinsey for relaying this in the comments last night, because it is one of the funniest quotes I've ever read. Manny Ramirez, on the one pitch Joe Borowski threw him last night:

"It seemed like a fastball," he said. "It was something like 80 mph. Maybe it was change-up. It was right there."

I know he was hurt (and is now on the DL), and that's probably not something I should make fun of. But doesn't that pretty much sum up Borowski's entire existence right there? And because it's Manny, you know he wasn't trying to be humorous or anything, just 100% honest. Fantastic stuff.

ALCS Preview: Fielding

I am quite tired of writing all these previews, and want to write something after this tonight, so this is going to be quick.

C: Victor threw out 32% of basestealers this season; Varitek was at 24%. I suppose Tek is probably better at calling pitches (he's been doing this for awhile), and catcher's defense is hard to quantify, so I'll call this a push.

1B: This is not close. Garko is a converted catcher, and is still kind of finding his way. Youk is a converted 3B, and is one of the best defensive 1Bs in the league. Clear edge to BOS.

2B: The fielding metrics have Pedroia about average, which seems right. After watching Asdrubal for the last two months, I can tell you this much: he is not average. Edge to CLE.

SS: Peralta is terrible, and Lugo is a little above average. Definite edge to BOS.

3B: Both the THT and UZR numbers have Lowell as below average; doesn't he have the
reputation as being really good? Blake has a great arm, but that's a bout it. Edge to BOS.

LF: Manny's fielding stats are really quite comical. Lofton is about average; big edge for CLE.

CF: THT loves Sizemore, but UZR doesn't. I would say he's a little above average, and Coco is a little better than that. Edge to BOS.

RF: Well, Drew is below average (although Kielty is starting G1), Trot is absolutely terrible, and Gutierrez is excellent. Edge to CLE.

So that's four to BOS, one to CLE, and one push. That seems about right; Boston's defense has the reputation as being a little better.

Photo: The Kingdome.

ALCS Preview: Lineups

Yesterday, I looked at the rotations, and concluded that the Indians had a slight edge in that department. Today, the lineups.

For each player I've included some pretty standard stats, as well as a couple of BP's more advanced metrics. In case you're unfamiliar with EqA and VORP:

EqA:

A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260

A-Rod led the AL in EqA this year, at .339. Josh Barfield checked in at .204.

VORP:

The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.

A-Rod led the AL in VORP as well, at 96.6. Nick Punto was last, with a -27.1 VORP.

Essentially, these two metrics measure the same thing, but VORP takes into account how many PAs you had, and what position you play.

In rounding up these numbers I learned a lot about the Red Sox. I knew Varitek was terrible last year (.325 OBP, 85 OPS+), but hadn't realized he'd bounced back somewhat this year. He'll never be the .860 OPS guy he was from '03-'05, but a .265 EqA from your catcher isn't bad at all. Although I guess at $10MM/yr it's not exactly an asset. He struggled in the ALDS, hitting .182/.182/.273 with four strikeouts in 11 ABs.

Victor had his best season yet, with 40 doubles and 114 RBIs to go along with the numbers above. I know "clutch" doesn't actually exist, but after watching Martinez hit .400/.538/.600 with two outs & RISP this season, he sure inspires confidence when he's up in big spots. I'm just taking hitting into account here, but Victor has improved his throwing this year as well; in '06 he threw out just 18% of basestealers, but this year he improved to 32%. Martinez was 6/17 with a double, a HR, and 4 RBIs against the Yankees. In G4, he singled to the left in the 4th off Mussina to knock in two runs, putting the Indians ahead 6-1.

Edge: Cleveland
Impact: 5

These two are about equal offensively, but they go about things quite differently. Garko's value is in his power, with a .194 ISO (SLG-BA). Youkilis doesn't have nearly as much power (.155 ISO), but is very patient (I feel like this may have been mentioned before?). Youk walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances, dwarfing Garko's 6.6%. In the end, you get two very different hitters with very similar value.

Edge: Boston
Impact: 1

Pedroia slugged just .239 in April, but the Red Sox stuck with him, and they've been rewarded. His line is pretty solid overall, but if you just look at the last five months it's even better, at .333/.389/.467.

Last year, the Indians traded Eduardo Perez to the Mariners on June 21 for a SS named Asdrubal Cabrera. At the time, Cabrera was hitting .236/.323/.360 at AAA Tacoma. This more a reflection of Seattle's incompetence than Cabrera's. Cabrera was only 20, and had previously had only 23 ABs above A-ball. As I understand it, the Mariners' system was very weak up the middle (Cabrera is really a SS playing out of position), and they rushed him because of this.

That was only sixteen months ago. Friday, Cabrera will start at second base in the ALCS. Perez retired from baseball after last season, and has since worked on Baseball Tonight, even making reference to how the Tribe may have come out slightly ahead in that trade. Cabrera, who turns 22 next month, will hopefully be moved back to shortstop next year, with Peralta shifting over to third.

Edge: Boston
Impact: 2

Peralta is very frustrating to watch, as he strikes out a ton (146 this this year, 152 last year), and has a "long" swing (that may be a terrible use of that terminology, but that's what it's always looked like to me). I guess one has to consider those numbers an asset though, as he's an average hitter who (however poorly) plays shortstop, and there is some value in that.

That value becomes more obvious when comparing him to Lugo. What an odd situation. Last year Lugo was having a career year in Tampa, hitting .308/.373/.498 for four months before getting traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. He posted an OPS+ of 40 with the Dodgers, hitting .219/.278/.267. Unfazed, Boston signed him to a four year, $36MM deal. He's been slightly better in Boston than LA, but not by all that much. His career OPS is just .728, and he'll be 32 in November, so it's entirely possible the Red Sox will be paying $27MM over the next three years for a guy who will be around .240/.300/.350.

Edge: Cleveland
Impact: 3

Like Peralta, Blake is a very average hitter- in fact, the .260 EqAs of both are the definition of average. The difference is that Blake plays third, where much more offensive production is expected. Blake's tenure in Cleveland has been up and down; he posted a .279 EqA in '04, .254 in '05, .280 in '06, and then .260 this year.

After an unbelievably bad '05 with the Marlins (.236/.298/.360), the Marlins forced Boston to take on the two years and $16MM left on his contract. A year ago that didn't look like it was a wise move, as Beckett and Lowell struggled in Boston while Hanley Ramirez had a great second half in Florida. This year has been much different, as Beckett might (shouldn't!) win the Cy Young, and Lowell had a great year both at the plate and in the field.

Edge: Boston
Impact: 5

This just looks weird. I feel like it's eleven years ago, and Albert Belle has for some reason been excluded from a summary of Cleveland's outfield.

It was pretty cool that Lofton came back to the Indians the year they returned to the playoffs, although he wasn't very good with the Tribe during the regular season (.283/.344/.370). That has since been completely forgotten about, of course, as he hit .375/.444/.438 against New York, with four RBIs, prompting this insightful post.

From 1998 to 2005, Manny Ramirez finished between 3rd and 9th in the MVP voting every year. I find this absolutely amazing. He dropped to 18th last year, and in '07 had the worst full season of his career. Although this is a future HOF we're talking about here, so his "worst season" really isn't all that bad. And I'd say he had a decent series against the Angels, going 3/8 with two homers and five walks, good for a 1.740 OPS. He also inspired one of my favorite headlines in recent memory (which obviously goes with the picture on the left): "Raise Your Hands If You're the Boom King".

Edge: Boston
Impact: 7

Grady Sizemore's walk rate for each of his three full seasons in the majors:

If he keeps up this pace...

That's obviously quite a trend, although my optimism is slightly tempered by his rising K rate (not nearly as important as walks, but striking out 24.7% of the time is not good) and decrease in power (SLGs of .484, .533 and .462 the last three years). Still, if he levels out at .285/.380/.490 for the new few years, I think I'll take that from a CF with an above-average glove.

Well, the Crisp-Marte trade hasn't really worked out for anybody, although Shoppach has been useful for Cleveland. Coco had BABiPs of .322 and .326 in '04 and '05; that has dropped to .299 and .310 in his two years with Boston. Add in an increased K% this year (7.1% career, 8.7% in '07), and his .300 BA becomes .265. He never hit for any power, and he doesn't walk much, so that's a problem.

Edge: Cleveland
Impact: 6

I would guess if you talked to Indians fans about Gutierrez, and Sox fans about Drew, you would come away with the impression that Gutierrez is a much better player. This will happen when one guy has a $70MM contract and slugs .423, while the other started the year in AAA and made $382,000 this year. Ignoring that, Drew's more valuable because he walks 14.5% of the time, to Gutierrez's 7.2%.

Edge: Boston
Impact: 2


David Ortiz had a GREAT year. He may have been the best hitter in the league; his .445 OBP is significantly better than A-Rod's .422. Nobody cared, because a lot of his value was in doubles (52!), and he didn't have many of his trademark "clutch" moments...until last week. He came up 13 times against the Angels, and had as many HR as outs (2).

Hafner's numbers were down from May-August (probably due to injury), but he came on strong in September (.316/.414/.551), and obviously got the winning hit in G2 against the Yankees. A year ago this is probably a toss up, but Ortiz is a better hitter right now.

Edge: Boston
Impact: 3

Add it all up, and it's 20-14 Boston. They have the big advantages at LF and 3B, as well as small edges at 1B, 2B, RF, and DH. The Indians are strong up the middle, with Martinez, Sizemore, and (to a lesser extent) Peralta being superior to their Boston counterparts.

I love how I say I'm not going to write one "long" preview, and then end up writing 1600 words on their lineups. Oh well. I'll end with this (from Let's Go Tribe), and the horrible image of David Ortiz coming to the plate...

"I suppose it's irrational to approach the entrance of Joe Borowski with dread; after all, it means the Indians have the lead (in this case three runs), and the odds are highly stacked against a loss. But when the bottom of the ninth arrived, all rational thinking went with it. After four hours, was it really going to come down to Joe Borowski getting three outs against the middle of the Yankee order?"

Pictures: Victor, Manny, Pedroia.

There Was A Second Game Last Night?

The plan:
The reality:
The result:

PostmanE is the only reason this post exists.

The Fox Effect, Part Two: 5 or 7?

I'm fairly new to this whole blogging thing, and never know how people are going to react to what I write. Sometimes people draw completely different conclusions from my posts than what I was trying to get at, which is always interesting.

But other times, like with last week's post about FOX effecting postseason playoff rotations, people take things one step further that I did, making points that never even occurred to me.

There were two ways in which people furthered my analysis. The first was Rob Neyer's post (Insider only), titled "Playoffs clearly just a money grab".

"First we have these ridiculous roster expansions in September, and then we'll have crazy postseason schedules that change the equation and (potentially) push the World Series into November. I know I've asked this before, and the answer is always the same, but how much money is enough? I mean, really?"

I didn't get into this in my original post, but FOX wanting to start the World Series on a week night was of course about money, as is made clear in this ESPN article:

"A Wednesday allows baseball to avoid playing on Friday, which is TV's second-least watched night after Saturday."

What I found funny was MLB president Bob DuPuy's quote later in the article:

"'The additional off-days throughout the postseason will give us greater flexibility to facilitate travel and protect against poor weather,' DuPuy said."

Ah, of course. That was the reason for this.

Anyway, both Foul Balls (when this was first announced) and Obscure Sports Quarterly (last week) echoed this sentiment:

"But the real reason they're moving back the World Series? Baseball is going to make the first round Divisional Series a best-of-7 instead of the current best-of-5 format. Owners have been asking for this for the last few years for a few reasons. One being that the better team tends to win more in a seven game series than a five, but the most important reason is extra games mean more income."

Well, it certainly would increase MLB's revenue. But what effect would it have on how often the superior team wins? Let's find out.

I assumed the current leaders make the playoffs, and for the NL Central I just made the Brewers and Cubs into a single entity. We also need to determine the strength of each team. I did this by combining third order win percentage (found here, explained here), and actual win percentage. The percentages I used are on the right.

So then I made this program where I can just plug in each team's W%, and it tells me how often they would win either a five game or seven game series. The table on the left is how often each team would advance to each round with the current format; on the right are the percentages if the first round was switched to seven games.

I thought it was interesting that I used almost the same W% for the Mets and Yankees, yet the Mets are significantly higher- that's the NL for you.

Going to seven games really doesn't change things all that much. The Red Sox have been by far the best team this season. If the first round were increased to 7 games, they'd increase their chances of beating the Indians by 1.6%. They would gain 0.6% on their WS%.

I would like MLB to change the first round to seven games- that would mean more baseball, and less off days that eliminate the need for fourth starters. But if MLB did so the result (as well as the intention, obviously) would be to deepen their pockets, rather ensure that the best team wins.

These fantastic pictures were taken from Deadspin and Zero to Six Figures.