Conference Tournament Previews: ACC

Here are the Pomeroy percentages for each team advancing to each round of the ACC tournament, which begins on Thursday.

This table is not aware that Lawson missed seven games, obviously.

The seeding of UNC and Duke was discussed here. Clemson is the third ACC team that is a lock for the tournament; they're probably a 6 at the moment. If they beat Maryland and lose to Duke, they should stay there. A loss to the Terps (or BC) would drop them; beat Duke and they should move up to at least a 5.

If Miami avoids an ugly first round loss to NC State, they should get in. They were only 8-8 in the ACC, but 13-1 out of conference, including a win @Mississippi St., and wins over VCU and Providence in Puerto Rico.

Maryland and Virginia Tech are also on the bubble. The Hokies are relying on their questionable 9-7 ACC mark. Their non-conference is pretty ugly; they need to beat Miami/NC State in the quarters to stay in the conversation. Even then, I think they should be out, but it probably depends on where the cut line falls.

Maryland, 8-8 in the ACC and with non-conference home losses to Ohio and American, really has their work cut out for them. Wins over BC and Clemson are a necessity; that would probably get them onto the same level as Virginia Tech.

I've made some noticeable changes to the Pomeroy percentages, in an attempt to account for Lawson's missed time.

VIP has posted some pretty nice odds for all of these tournaments, by the way.

Duke at +350 is fairly ridiculous. Here are the predicted lines, and their implied chance of winning, for their most difficult path:

Fair odds for a team with a 22.3% chance of winning would be +348. Factor in the times that they won't have to face Clemson or North Carolina, and VIP is offering some excellent odds on the Blue Devils.

Clemson and (surprisingly) Virginia Tech are not bad either, if you want to gamble. Clemson's odds are probably so good because of their lackluster play in the last week of the regular season. If you believe in momentum, and teams playing better when they have more on the line, then the Hokies at 30:1 is for you.

The Best Wins Of The Year

Tonight's craziness inspired me to compile the following list of the best wins to date this season. This isn't a list of the biggest upsets, or most impressive blowouts- it's the wins that will look best to the selection committee, three weeks from now.

The spread for each game is in parenthesis. Those are just for reference though- that didn't really factor into the list at all.

1. Tennessee 66, Memphis 62 (TEN -6.5)
Prior to this, Memphis had won their three big home games (Georgetown, Arizona, Gonzaga) by an average of 12 points, and had won 47 straight at the FedEx Forum. All their streaks ended tonight, as the Volunteers surprisingly outrebounded the Tigers by 15. Chris Lofton shot just 2/11 from the floor, but Tyler Smith (6/11, 16 pts), Wayne Chism (13 pts, 3/5 from 3, even banked one in), and JP Prince (5/8, 13 pts) picked up the slack offensively. It should be noted that freshman Derrick Rose was extremely impressive, carrying the Memphis offense at times. Although asking out of the game because he was winded with five minutes left was kind of weak.

2. Maryland 82, North Carolina 80 (UNC -18)
This was a real shocker, and remains UNC's only loss with Ty Lawson. The Terps are tough when their bigs, Bambale Osby and James Gist, are playing well. That's what happened here, as they combined for 34 points and 18 boards. But the key was Maryland's defense (which Osby and Gist certainly contributed to)- they held Carolina to 42.4% eFG%, tying their lowest mark of the year.

3. Texas 63, UCLA 61 (UCLA -10)
I originally had USC's win @UCLA here, before realizing that Mbah a Moute sustained a concussion in the first half of that one. The Bruins were at full strength against the Longhorns, but were held to 6/21 from beyond the arc. DJ Augustin uncharacteristically had six turnovers, but did shoot 8/15 from the field (19 points). Damion James added 19 points and 10 boards.

4. Tennessee 82, Xavier 75 (XAV -3.5)
Bet you didn't expect to see this one here. In 15 other home games, Xavier has outscored their opponents by an average of 24 ppg. Think about that for a second- the average score of their home wins is 82-58. Despite being outrebounded 37-25 in this one, the Volunteers took 13 more shots from the field- this was made possible by 21 Xavier turnovers. Lofton (3/12, 9 pts) was off in this one, too. But, similar to tonight, T. Smith, Chism and Prince picked up the slack, combining for 47 pts on 19/31 shooting.

5. Connecticut 68, Indiana 63 (Indiana -8.5)
This was easily the most impressive victory during UConn's 10-game win streak, which ended this afternoon. Playing without Jerome Dyson (who returns on Tuesday) and Doug Wiggins, the Huskies outrebounded Indiana, 41-26, and held them to 37% shooting (although they did shoot 11/20 from 3). Hasheem Thabeet had an extremely odd line for a man his size (7'3)- 38 minutes, only 5 rebounds, but 12 points on 6/7 shooting. Jeff Adrien and Stanley Robinson helped him out on the boards, with 11 rebounds apiece.

Photo: Yahoo!

The Arizona over got 27 of 48 votes (56%). Atlanta is up now, and will be up until there are at least 45 votes. I think that's the best way to do it on the weekends.

Vegas Power Rankings: ACC

With the big Duke-Carolina showdown in Chapel Hill tomorrow, seems like tonight is as good a time as any for the ACC rankings. As before, these are based on the lines for each game thus far in conference play.

The distribution here is truly incredible. Nine of the 12 teams have a negative rating. Despite the average being 0, the median is -2.2. This is what happens when you have two powerhouses at the top, a decent Clemson team, and then overwhelming mediocrity. Pomeroy pointed out the other day that this situation has led to an unbelievable number of close games.

The expected line for Duke @ UNC is 6.7; the actual opening line is 4. Clearly, this discrepancy is caused by the expectation that Carolina PG Ty Lawson won't play (sprained left ankle).

Despite their current #2 AP ranking, it's taken the general public a surprisingly long time to figure out that the Blue Devils are very good this year. One has to figure this is caused by their lack of a true inside presence- their tallest players, Kyle Singler and Lance Thomas, are only 6'8. (I am excluding Zoubek, who has been hurt throughout conference play, and averaged only 11.7 minutes when healthy.)

The betting stats also tell us that Duke has been underrated to this point. Despite being a favorite in each game, their average Wagerline percentage (the approximate proportion of the public that bet on Duke against the spread) is only 55.5%. In comparison, Carolina's average percentage is 59.0%; that's a pretty significant difference. Given this, it's not surprising that Duke is 6-0-1 against the spread in ACC games, while UNC is only 4-3-1.

Lunardi currently has both Duke and UNC as #1 seeds (I would imagine the loser or Wednesdays' game drops a line), and Clemson as a 10. Those are the only three ACC teams currently in, although both Virginia Tech and Maryland are one of the "last four out".

I'd guess they end up getting four teams in. I mean, when the bottom nine play each other, somebody has to win. After Virginia Tech's loss tonight, the frontrunner for that fourth spot is probably Maryland. They are 4-3 in the ACC, including the huge win @UNC. They are 42nd in the Pomeroy ratings, and are predicted to finish 9-7 in conference. Whether that will be good enough is unclear; they lost five games out of conference, and one of them was at home against American.