Conference Tournament Previews: ACC

Here are the Pomeroy percentages for each team advancing to each round of the ACC tournament, which begins on Thursday.

This table is not aware that Lawson missed seven games, obviously.

The seeding of UNC and Duke was discussed here. Clemson is the third ACC team that is a lock for the tournament; they're probably a 6 at the moment. If they beat Maryland and lose to Duke, they should stay there. A loss to the Terps (or BC) would drop them; beat Duke and they should move up to at least a 5.

If Miami avoids an ugly first round loss to NC State, they should get in. They were only 8-8 in the ACC, but 13-1 out of conference, including a win @Mississippi St., and wins over VCU and Providence in Puerto Rico.

Maryland and Virginia Tech are also on the bubble. The Hokies are relying on their questionable 9-7 ACC mark. Their non-conference is pretty ugly; they need to beat Miami/NC State in the quarters to stay in the conversation. Even then, I think they should be out, but it probably depends on where the cut line falls.

Maryland, 8-8 in the ACC and with non-conference home losses to Ohio and American, really has their work cut out for them. Wins over BC and Clemson are a necessity; that would probably get them onto the same level as Virginia Tech.

I've made some noticeable changes to the Pomeroy percentages, in an attempt to account for Lawson's missed time.

VIP has posted some pretty nice odds for all of these tournaments, by the way.

Duke at +350 is fairly ridiculous. Here are the predicted lines, and their implied chance of winning, for their most difficult path:

Fair odds for a team with a 22.3% chance of winning would be +348. Factor in the times that they won't have to face Clemson or North Carolina, and VIP is offering some excellent odds on the Blue Devils.

Clemson and (surprisingly) Virginia Tech are not bad either, if you want to gamble. Clemson's odds are probably so good because of their lackluster play in the last week of the regular season. If you believe in momentum, and teams playing better when they have more on the line, then the Hokies at 30:1 is for you.

Blogpoll: Week Three

The full blogpoll can be found here; my ballot was as follows:

North Carolina plays Ohio St. tonight, in Columbus. It'll be interesting to see how the Hansbrough-Koufos matchup plays out. Hansbrough rarely takes a shot from more than eight feet out, while Koufos is 5/11 from 3 so far this year.

If I had submitted this today rather than Monday night, Clemson would not be on the list. They looked terrible last night against Purdue. Same goes for Wisconsin, who lost to Duke by 24.

How about Texas? They shot 63.6% from the floor in beating Tennessee by 19. Abrams is averaging 23 ppg, Augustin is at 17 pts and 8 assists. And sophomore Damion James is chipping in with 9 pts and 8 boards. They visit UCLA on Sunday night. Good thing it's on FSN so I won't be able to watch it.

I have no idea if Pitt or Miami are actually good.