Tigers Land Cabrera, Willis

As huge as this trade is, it's fairly straightforward. The Tigers get much better in 2008-09, while giving up a couple guys that could be superstars in 2010 and beyond (if not before that). It's the kind of trade we don't see that often anymore, as teams have learned to value prospects appropriately. But when a guy whose age 21-24 comps are "Hank Aaron, Hank Aaron, Hank Aaron, and Hank Aaron" is involved, you're going to have to give up some serious talent.

Tigers get:
Miguel Cabrera

Miguel Cabrera hit .320/.401/.565 last year. Tigers third baseman Brandon Inge hit .236/.312/.376. Miggy had the slight edge in VORP, 71.4 to -3.3. It is rare that you upgrade by 75 runs offensively at a position, but that's what's happening here.

The similar contrast in the defensive skill of these two can't be ignored, however. Over the last three years in Dewan's +/- system, Inge is +61 plays; Miggy is -37. That works out to (very roughly) 25 runs per year, which puts a small dent in the advantage that Miggy's bat has.

Still, they're upgrading from a replacement-level bat to a Hall of Fame level bat . The Tigers won 88 games last year, and they're improving by 4-5 wins at third base. Coupled with essentially replacing Sean Casey with Edgar Renteria, that makes them pretty scary.

Dontrelle Willis

Amazing how things change. A couple years ago, Willis was being shopped as the main cog in trades similar to this one. Now, he's relegated to second billing. What happened?

Looking back, it really seems like it just took awhile for perception to catch up to reality. Willis took the world by storm in '03. He had a great '05, because of temporarily improved control and an aberrantly low HR rate. But look at those K/9; it's pretty clear that he's not the 8.0 K/9 guy he was for 160 innings in 2003.

That's isn't to say he isn't valuable, not at all. He's averaged 215 innings in his first full seasons, and, as we're about to find out, there's a lot of value in eating up innings. But it seems like the over/under on his 2008 ERA should probably be around 4.80. An asset, sure, but certainly not the same guy who almost won the Cy Young at age 23.

Marlins get:
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Mike Rabelo
Eulogio de la Cruz
Dallas Trahern
Burke Badenhop

It drives me absolutely nuts that this package has been widely reported as "Maybin, Miller, Rabelo, and three minor leaguers". Like we don't care what the second half package is, we're not informed enough to understand? Cameron Maybin has 49 major league ABs, and he was just the biggest prize in a trade that landed Miguel Cabrera; can we all agree that minor leaguers aren't trivial?

If the Tigers were able to land these six, I can't imagine what this deal would have looked like if Willis hadn't declined over the last couple years. The top four here, plus Porcello? I don't even know if that would've been enough.

Although some Tigers fans are trying hard to trivialize their loss, Maybin is one of the top prospects in the game. Before 2007, Baseball America rated him as the 6th best prospect in the game. He hit .304/.393/.486 in high-A this year, made a quick stop in AA, and made his ML debut in Yankee Stadium on August 17. At the age of twenty. He'll be Florida's centerfielder for years to come. Although this raises an interesting question- what to do with Hanley Ramirez? I had kind of figured that he'd end up in center, but this puts an end to that idea. Third base? I have no idea how his issues at SS would translate there.

Andrew Miller, BA's #10 prospect coming into '07, isn't bad himself. He struggled with his control with Detroit this year, walking 39 in 64 innings, but let's not forget that he turned 22 in May. His control was fine in the minors (26 walks in 83 IP; yes, he's only threw 83 minor league innings before getting called up), and he gets an impressive amount of ground balls (4.32 career GB/FB ratio). His K rate with the Tigers was very solid (7.9 K/9). The Marlins certainly gave up a lot, but they're getting two of the best prospects in the game, at the peak of their value- major league ready, and with barely any service time under their belts.

Quickly running through the other four guys (sorry, I have to sleep occasionally):

Rabelo is 27, and seems like a solid backup catcher. De la Cruz is hard throwing 23-year old reliever, with pretty good numbers over the last couple years. Trahern just turned 22, and relies on a heavy sinker to produce obscene ground ball rates. Badenhop has a fantastic name but isn't very good.

Photo: NY Times.

A Better Option?

Over the last few days, there has been some talk about how trading for Miguel Cabrera is a much better option than signing Alex Rodriguez. Here's one example, from FanHouse:

"Yes, A-Rod will outproduce Cabrera in the short-term, but will he outproduce him by $20 million a year? Not a chance. And whatever organizational depth a team loses by trading all their prospects to acquire Cabrera can be made up in time by pouring at least some of the difference in salary into scouting and the draft."

That $20MM number isn't a very realistic way to look at this situation. 2008 will be Cabrera's second arbitration year (he made $7.4 MM in '07); he's probably going to get $10-$12MM this year, and somewhere around $15 MM in '09. So, yes, that's a lot less than A-Rod.

But that's only for two years. After that, he's a free agent. Cabrera's next contract, whether he signs an extension in the near future, of hits the open market two years from now, is going to be quite large. Probably not A-Rod numbers (unless Miggy has a huge year in '09, like Rodriguez did this year, in which case all bets are off), but maybe a step below that- 8 years, $225 million, something like that. So saying Cabrera is going to be a great addition because he's cheap isn't really true.

This second issue here is his defense. The guy is a great hitter, that's pretty obvious (look at his B-R comps; that's quite a list). But he's a serious liability in the field. John Dewan's Plus/Minus system had him as the third-worst third baseman in baseball this year, and THT's numbers agree. I mean, look at the guy. It seems like he's destined for first base, which makes him even less comparable to Rodriguez.

Finally, and this is probably the most important issue, the Marlins aren't about to give this guy away for free. There's a reason they're looking to trade him now; he's under control for two more years, and his value is probably at its peak, as far as Florida is concerned. The Marlins are going to be looking for someone like Clayton Kershaw (LAD) or Howie Kendrick (LAA)- these are big-time names. (Side note: I read (here) that the Yankees are reluctant to include Ian Kennedy in a trade. Are they serious? Like Melky Cabrera, Alan Horne and Ross Ohlendorf are going to get this deal done?)

Miguel Cabrera would be a great addition to a lot of teams, especially one that is in a position to win now and has a deep farm system. But I fail to see how trading for Cabrera is a clearly superior alternative to signing Alex Rodriguez.

Photo: BBC.

What Are The Odds: .400

There is no such thing as a .400 hitter. Well, at least there never has been. People have hit .400, of course, but that's always been something of a fluke. This is evident in the fact that Ty Cobb has the highest career BA ever, at "just" .366.

In 1994, Tony Gwynn was hitting .394 when the season was cut short by the strike. He hit .358 in '93, and .368 in '95, so in reality he was about a .372 hitter over that three year period. If he had gotten 170 more ABs in '94, there's about a 14% chance he would have bumped his average up to .400.

Since Williams hit .406 in 1941, five guys have had 500+ plate appearances and hit over .375:

It's no coincidence that Brett, Williams and Walker barely had 50o plate appearances- it's a lot easier to hit .375+ over 450 plate appearances than 600. If Carew had had as many ABs in '77 as Brett had in '80, there's a 30% chance he would have gotten lucky and ended up above .400.

The ability to hit .400 is a very different "skill" than the ability to put together a long hit streak. For hitting streaks, you want as many at bats as possible, since going 1/5 is just as good as going 1/2. For this list, it's an advantage to have fewer at bats, as that increases the chances that you can get lucky and hit for a higher average than your actual level of ability would normally indicate (for example, almost anyone can hit .400 over the course of 20 at bats). Because of this, hitting lower in the order, and drawing a lot of walks, increase your chances of hitting for an unusually high average.

Taking these factors into account, as well as age, here are the 10 guys that are most likely to hit .400.

1. Miguel Cabrera (24 years old, .327 BA in 05-07).
Career odds: 1 in 429
2008 odds: 1 in 6859

The concerns about his weight have not effected Miggy's batting average, as he's hit at least .323 each of the last three years. A couple weeks ago he became the third fastest to 500 RBIs, reminding the world that he doesn't turn 25 until April of 2008. It's possible that he has room to grow as a hitter, which is a scary thought- he has to be #1 on this list.

2. Albert Pujols (27 years old, .327 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 473
2008 odds: 1 in 6146

This was the first guy that came to mind for me. Over the last three years he has walked in almost 16% of his plate appearances- that kills him in terms of hit streaks (he wasn't even in the top 10), but really helps him here- he's never had more than 592 ABs in a season.

3. Matt Holliday (27 years old, .323 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 1167
2008 odds: 1 in 15170

How much of an effect does Coors Field have on this? In his career, he's hit .358 at home, but just .273 on the road. If he were to plan an entire season at home, he'd have about a 2% chance of hitting .400. On the other hand, if he played a full year on the road, he wouldn't be anywhere near this list.

4. Vladimir Guerrero (31 years old, .325 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 1802
2008 odds: 1 in 16214

Doesn't it seem like a long more than four years ago that Vlad was playing in Montreal? This is completely unrelated, but with the Expos he averaged 17.5 stolen bases per year but was thrown out 37% of the time. In Anaheim, he has averaged just 11.3 SB/yr, but has only been thrown out on 21% of his attempts.

5. Placido Polanco (31 years old, .325 BA in 05-07) Career odds: 1 in 3032
2008 odds: 1 in 27281

After the 2004 season, Polanco's career average stood at .295. How has he hit 30 points higher than that over the last three seasons? Well, for one thing he stopped striking out- his K% has gone from 10.9% in 1999 to 4.9% this year. He's also increased his BABiP by hitting more line drives- his LD% for 02-04 was 22.5%, over the last three years it's 24.6%.

6. Derrek Lee (31 years old, .319 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 3612
2008 odds: 1 in 32500

Lee is on this list only because he hit .335 in 2005; since then, he's hit .305 in 695 ABs. It has been speculated that this is an effect of injuring his wrist last April. That may have something to do with it, but I would guess 2005 was the exception here- his previous career high was .282.

7. Derek Jeter (33 years old, .322 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 4216
2008 odds: 1 in 29511

If this were to happen, I think it's entirely reasonable to think he could be on the front page of both the Post and Daily News every day for two months.

8. Magglio Ordonez (33 years old, .322 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 5165
2008 odds: 1 in 36154

Before this year, Magglio had never hit above .320; right now, he's at .357. If he went 42/45 down the stretch, he'd be at .401; I tried to run the odds on that, but it just says 0.

9. Ichiro Suzuki (33 years old, .324 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 5287
2008 odds: 1 in 37007

Ichiro averaged 683 ABs over his first six seasons, because he bats leadoff and rarely walks. In 2004 he hit .372 in 704 ABs; if he had had 200 fewer at bats, there's about a 1 in 10 chance that he would have hit .400.

10: Robinson Cano (24 years old, .313 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 8496
2008 odds: 1 in 135924

Cano was third on the hit streak list because he never walks, and he's only 10th on this list for that same reason. It should be noted that he's at least walking more than he used to- his BB% has doubled from 3.0% in 2005 to 6.0% this season.

Photos: Ted, Miggy, Vlad, Jeter. Stats taken from B-R, the B-R Play Index, and FanGraphs.

Previously: What Are The Odds: DiMaggio's Streak
What Are The Odds archive

What Are The Odds: DiMaggio's Streak

There have been a couple impressive streaks lately that have received national attention (Webb & Jenks), and a third (Polanco's errorless streak) that hasn't been as hyped up but is pretty incredible.

None of this compares to the frenzy that would surround a player who had a hitting streak approaching 56 games. DiMaggio's record is probably the most famous streak in all of sports (above even Ripken's), and the media scrutiny on anyone who challenged it would be insane. But who's got the best chance? I crunched some numbers to find the 10 players who have the best chance of breaking the record.

This amazed me: DiMaggio struck out 13 times in 621 plate appearances in 1941. That's 2.4%. Although a factor, I didn't consider strikeouts in my analysis. Here's what went into it:

Hit Percentage

No, not batting average. Batting average doesn't take walks into consideration, and that's a big factor here. Walks are actually a negative in looking for someone who could put together a long hitting streak- a plate appearance that ends in a walk is one less that can result in a hit. Hit Percentage is simply hits divided by plate appearances. Ichiro leads in this category at .297 over the last three years. In 1941, DiMaggio's Hit Percentage was .311. Walks are the reason guys like Pujols and Utley aren't in the top 10.

Lineup Slot

The higher you are in the lineup, the more times you get to bat, and thus the more likely you are to get at hit. This actually has a pretty significant effect on one's chances of reaching 56 games. The chart on the right shows the expected plate appearances per game for each lineup slot (as you may notice, the math is not terribly complicated- it just goes down by .12 each time). This generally isn't a huge factor, as almost everybody on this list hits first, second or third, with the exception of Robinson Cano (more on that later).

Team Runs per Game

Well, if your team scores a lot of runs they obviously turn the lineup over more often. I found that for each run your team averages above the league average, that adds .15 plate appearances. I didn't use such a dramatic effect in my model, as offenses vary over time and we're looking at each player's entire career rather than just this year or next year.

Age

I just assumed that each player plays until the age of 40. I also factored in a slight decline in both Hit Percentage and games played as players get into their late 30s. What's interesting about this is that the following list isn't dominated by players in their early 20s. This is because your Hit Percentage has to be at such a high level to have any significant chance of breaking the record that age isn't all that important, as only an elite group of players even enters the discussion.

So I've gone through the factors, now here's the list of the guys who have the best chance to break the record.

1. Hanley Ramirez

Career odds: 1 in 383

Chance he does it in '08: 1 in 4557

I have written at length about how underrated Hanley is before, so it's good to be able to show him some respect myself. He's really got everything going for him in this discussion- he bats leadoff, has a solid Hit % of .281, and, most importantly, is only 23.

2. Placido Polanco

Career odds: 1 in 397

Chance he does it in '08: 1 in 1563

Bet you didn't see this one coming. Polanco possesses two key attributes- he never strikes out (his K% of 5.0% is easily the lowest in baseball), and his line drive % (24.2%, behind only Michael Young and Chone Figgins) is very high. He would be at the top of this list if he was a few years younger (he's 31) or hit leadoff (he bats second).

3. Robinson Cano

Career odds: 1 in 465

Chance he does it in '08: 1 in 5072

To me, Cano is the most interesting guy here. He never walks (66 BBs in 1598 career PA), get his share of infield hits (23 this year), and is only 24. If he batted leadoff he would easily be first on this list (at 1 in 79). Problem is he usually hits between sixth and ninth in the Yankee lineup. Since he won't be that low his entire career (I'd guess he ends up hitting second or third), I had him hitting fourth for the purposes of this exercise. If I had just had him hitting third, he would have come out at #1, but that seemed unreasonable for a guy who's hit seventh 70 times this year.

4. Ichiro Suzuki

Career odds: 1 in 481

Chance he does it in '08: 1 in 1331

As I mentioned before, Ichiro actually leads the league in Hit % at .297, as he's hitting .353 this year while only drawing 39 walks. His 39 infield hits are 10 more than anyone else. Add in the fact he hits leadoff every night, and he has the best chance of breaking the record next year. The only strike against him, and the reason he's this low, is that he's already 33. Although maybe when he becomes a pitcher at 40 he'll be playing in the NL and continue a hit streak every fifth day.

5. Freddy Sanchez

Career odds: 1 in 548

Chance he does it in '08: 1 in 3242

Sanchez led the NL in BA last year (.344), which gave him quite a boost. Incredibly, he was only 17th in OBP, as he walked just 31 times. In the strange world of hit streaks this actually helps him, as he had an impressive Hit % of .316. Of course, he's not actually that good- his BABiP of .370 last year was 33 points above his career average.

6. Michael Young

Career odds: 1 in 561

Chance he does it in '08: 1 in 2762

Young is a line drive machine, leading the league in LD% at 26.2%. His BB% of 7.0% is just 129th out of 171 qualified batters. He's the fourth most likely to put together a long streak next year, but he's already 30.

7. Matt Holliday

Career odds: 1 in 592

Chance he does it in '08: 1 in 4678

Holliday is hitting .338 this year, which is probably unsustainable. His BABiP of .385 is 30 points above his career level. Also hurting his chances is that his BB% has increased from 7.1% over the last three years to 8.3% this year. This is good for the Rockies, but not good for his dreams of breaking DiMaggio's record (which may or may not exist).

8. Miguel Cabrera

Career odds: 1 in 769

Chance he he does it in '08: 1 in 8367

In 2005, Miggy had 15 infield hits. This year? Only 4. He's listed at 210 lbs., but that's a lie. Check out this awesome before and after of Cabrera from Vinyl is Heavy:

Hmm. I wonder why his infield hits have decreased so dramatically over this time.

9. Derek Jeter

Career odds: 1 in 832
Chance he he does it in '08: 1 in 2293

Finally. Jeter is the oldest guy on this list (he's 33). He has walked 195 times since '05, which prevents him from being higher, although he is third if we're just looking at next year. Jeter has 2,316 career hits- Rose had 2,337 through his age 33 season, while Cobb had 2856. If he wants to go for the hit record he'll have to follow Rose's path. Although averaging 129 hits a year between the ages of 40 and 44 is a lot easier said than done.

10. Carl Crawford

Career odds: 1 in 1059

Chance he does it in '08: 1 in 10463

Crawford has split his time between hitting second (44 times) and third (71 times)- if he hit second every day he'd jump up to #8. Like Cabrera, Crawford has seen his infield hits decline- he had 70 in 03-04, but is down to 15 this year. There's no clear explanation for this beyond the fact that he's striking out a lot more (19.6% K% this year, 4.5% above his career average), which only explains part of it.

As you've probably noticed, nobody is at all likely to break the record. In fact, there's only a 1 in 56 (strange coincidence) chance that any of these 10 guys reaches DiMaggio's mark. Regardless of how good you are, getting a hit every game for two months is extremely difficult. If I had done this for DiMaggio before the 1941 season, his odds would have been 1 in 84 for his career, and 1 in 833 for '41. (I'm guessing he hit 3rd, but that could be incorrect, please correct me if it is.)

Pictures taken from here, here, here, here and here. All stats taken from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

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