2008 NBA Draft Odds

Sportsbook and BetUS have minimal, boring odds up on Thursday's draft. Luckily, Bodog comes through with an extensive selection.

While I am trying to determine what is and isn't a good bet, please be advised that my knowledge of the situation comes from reading this Chad Ford column, and looking at DraftExpress and NBADraft.net.

It should be noted that Ford, while having the most accurate mock last year, only called 12/30 picks correctly. This stuff is really hard to call, especially when you get past the first few picks.

Unless otherwise specified, these props are regarding who will be taken in each slot, regardless of who is picking there. The actual props don't have the team name (except for #2 and #10), which I have added in parenthesis.

Who will be the #1 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft? (Bulls)
Michael Beasley, +375
Derrick Rose, -600

We've been slowly moving in this direction for almost two months now, since it was essentially a coin flip. All indications are that Rose will be the guy, but I wouldn't want to pay -600 to find out.

What will Miami do with the #2 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft?
Draft Michael Beasely and Keep him, 2/7
Trade Pick or Draft Michael Beasley and Trade him, 4/1
Draft O.J. Mayo, 9/2
Draft Any Other Player, 3/1

This is kind of surprising, isn't it? This obviously isn't exactly insider information, but Ford says:

We continue to hear that the Heat will probably trade the No. 2 pick if Rose is off the board.

Seems pretty straight forward, doesn't it? I suppose that we probably tend to overrate the possibility of guys getting traded, but +400 on that seems like a pretty good price here. I certainly wouldn't take the other side at -350.

Who will be the #3 pick? (Timberwolves)
Mayo, 2/5
Kevin Love, 9/2
Jerryd Bayless, 7/1
Brook Lopez, 3/1
Other, 8/1

Given the uncertainty of the Draft, I don't think there's a whole lot I would take at -250, and certainly not this. All three mocks have Mayo going here, but Bodog is obviously prepared for that scenario.

Might "Other" be a decent choice here? I am asking--I have no idea. Is there a scenario where the Heat keep their pick and select someone other than Beasley? It seems like maybe the Heat to trade their pick at +400 and "Other" at +800 would be a good combo, with one hedging the other.

Who will be the #4 pick? (Sonics)
Bayless, 5/6
Russell Westbrook, 3/2
Lopez, 3/1
Eric Gordon, 5/1
Other 8/1

Ford has them taking Westbrook, NBADraft.net has Bayless, and Draft Express has Lopez. I get the impression that the Sonics themselves have no idea who they are going to take.

I wouldn't bet on any of the players here, but what about "Other"? I know this is getting repetitive, but are we that sure that Rose-Beasley-Mayo are going to go 1-2-3?

Who will be the #5 pick? (Grizzlies)
Love, 5/9
Gordon, 3/2
Lopez, 5/1
Other, 13/4

Sounds like they're either going to take Love or Gordon. I have nothing to add here.

Who will be the #6 pick? (Knicks)
Bayless, 5/6
Westbrook, 5/6
Danilo Gallinari, 3/1
Joe Alexander, 6/1
Other, 9/2

This is interesting. As you may remember, there was a time that Gallinari was the heavy favorite here, at -150. A lot has transpired since, apparently. Ford says:

We had Danilo Gallinari at the Knicks in our first mock draft, but dropped him when a Suns source said that Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni wasn't a big fan. Apparently Gallinari's workout, combined with some research, has changed that opinion. Gallinari has worked out well everywhere and it sounds like the Knicks are comfortable with him here.

So, there you have it. Chad Ford endorses Gallinari at 3:1.

Who will be the #7 pick? (Clippers)
Gordon, 10/13
Westbrook, 3/1
Alexander, 11/2
D.J. Augustin, 8/1
Other, 2/1

Sounds like this will probably be Gordon, although there's no way I'd pay -130 for it, especially since Ford has Bayless going here.

Who will be the #8 pick? (Bucks)
Alexander, 1/2
Lopez, 7/2
Westbrook, 11/2
Augustin, 8/1
Other, 3/1

The whole world thinks they are taking Joe Alexander. Unfortunately, that includes Bodog.

Who will be the #9 pick? (Bobcats)
Lopez, 10/11
Augustin, 11/2
Donte Greene, 11/2
DeAndre Jordan, 10/1
Other, 10/11

Man, wasn't Lopez expected to go #3 at one point? That didn't last.

The three mocks have Westbrook, Lopez, and Love going here. Other seems like a decent value.

What will the Nets do with the #10 pick?
Draft Danilo Gallinari, 1/1
Draft any other player, 10/13
Trade pick, 4/1

"Any other player" at -130 has to be the play here. It's the 10th pick in the draft, how can they be so confident that a) Gallinari will be available, and b) they'll take him?

Who will be the #11 pick? (Pacers)
Augustin, 13/10
Anthony Randolph, 4/1
Brandon Rush, 11/2
Greene, 15/2
Other, 1/1

John Hollinger would not take Randolph here.

Ford has them taking Augustin. Not at +130 though.

Who will be the #12 pick? (Kings)
Randolph, 5/4
Rush, 7/2
Darrell Arthur, 9/2
Roy Hibbert, 5/1
Other, 6/5

They are supposedly looking at Hibbert; NBADraft.net has him going here, and Ford mentions him as well (although he has them taking this guy).

Who will be the #13 pick? (Trail Blazers)
Rush, 6/5
Greene, 3/2
Nicolas Batum, 10/1
Other, 5/6

Ford thinks the Blazers will either trade this pick (they do that a lot), take Rush, or take some French guy named Alexis Ajinca. DraftExpress has Ajinca going here as well, while NBADraft.net has Rush.

13th pick, only three non-field players, a team that loves to trade, and two of three mocks having a guy in the field selected. Other at -120 seems like the way to go here, does it not?

Who will be the #14 pick? (Warriors)
Kosta Koufos, 1/1
Arthur, 5/2
Greene, 9/2
Marreese Speights, 8/1
Other, 6/5

It is Koufos or Greene here, apparently. I liked it better when the lottery was only 13 teams.

Bodog has some more props, about whether guys will get drafted in the first or second round, and which players will get traded in the offseason. Go check them out, if you want, but those are categories I can't even fake knowledge in.

NA Basketball Player Prop Betting [Bodog]

Photo: NBA.com

Pre-Draft Camp Numbers

Rush the Court brings us the official numbers from the NBA pre-draft camp. I thought I'd go through some of the leaders and laggers, as well as some of the surprises.

First, the guys who are much shorter than their ESPN profiles would lead us to believe:


I wasn't aware that Green was listed at 6'11. He's not that tall. I could've told you that.

I have a feeling Beasley will be okay, but this is probably a big deal for some of the other guys. I'm surprised Nelson is barely 6'2. It may have something to do with his wingspan; here is the list of the guys with wingspans much longer than their actual heights:

Very similar to the previous list. This could be a coincidence, but probably not-- these guys were able to get away with lying about their heights, because they look taller than they actually are.

Two UNC guys are actually smaller than their listed heights. Danny Green is listed at 6'5", but he's 6'6". Wayne Ellington is listed at 6'4", but is actually 6'4.75". Not sure what that's about.

The highest verticals:

Greg Paulus thinks Deron Washington should be higher on this list. Ewing Jr. at the top is interesting.

The guys who can't jump:

In a huge upset, white guys only occupy the top three spots on this list. Gransberry's presence is probably explained by the next list, highest body fat:

Love's max vertical is 35", which is shockingly high. I would've guessed about half that much.

Finally, the bench press numbers.

Two surprises here- that Alexander is so high, and that Dorsey isn't first. Nelson did as many reps as Dorsey? Really?

Seven guys were tied for last with two reps-- Davon Jefferson, Patrick Ewing, Jiri Hubalek, DJ Augustin, Donte Green, Keith Brumbaugh, and Mike Taylor.

Predraft Camp Numbers Are Here!! [Rush the Court]

More NBA Draft Odds

Now that the order has been determined, Sportsbook has posted additional odds on the upcoming NBA Draft. The odds for the #1 pick have not changed- Rose is the favorite at -130, and Beasley is even. There are no odds on the #2 pick because, given the 1/1a nature of the draft, that'd be redundant.

For the next three picks they don't have odds on each individual one, but rather the 3-4-5 combination:

Not surprisngly there is a ton of juice on these- they add up to 150%.

As of now, the consensus seems to be that Lopez will go third (to Minnesota), and Bayless will go fourth (to Seattle). Both these odds, NBADraft.net, DraftExpress, and Chad Ford agree on that much.

Picking fifth, it looks like Memphis will set the tone for the rest of the draft. Sportsbook put Mayo in there for whatever reason, but it could also be Love, and NBADraft.net has the Grizzlies taking Anthony Randolph out of LSU.

Which brings us to the Knicks. Sportsbook has a prop on whether Danilo Gallinari will play his first regular season game for New York. "Yes" is -150, while "no" is +120. That is a pretty bold statement that Sportsbook is making- they're saying that there is about a 57% chance the Knicks will take 19-year old Italian.

If betting on these, I'd go with uncertainty. That would mean the field at +140 for the 3-4-5 combo, and "no" at +120 for the Knicks taking Gallinari. The draft is still a month away, it seems very early to be predicting the 3-6 picks with that much certainty.

#1 Pick Odds

First off, Sportsbook followed The Greek's lead and put up odds on the Draft lottery. Strangely, some of them are pretty close to the true odds. The Knicks should be +1216; Sportsbook has them at +1200. I'm not really sure what they get out of this- if they want to have more attractive odds than The Greek, why not put them at +1000? At +1200, they are barely making any money.

They also have odds on who the #1 pick will be; this is somewhat more interesting, since we don't already know what the actual odds are.


This matches my intuition- it's essentially a coin flip between Beasley and Rose, and it'd be a shock if anyone else went first.

Obviously, a lot of this depends on which team wins the lottery. So I figured I'd mess around with ESPN's Lottery Mock Draft thing, and see which teams picked which players when they landed the top pick.

Here are the results, along with the percentage of the time that the team in question is expected to get the #1 pick.

The Pacers (0.8%) and Trail Blazers (0.6%) are noticeably absent from this list. That's because they never won in the ridiculous number of lotteries I ran, so I don't know who they would pick. Edit: Apparently he has both teams taking Rose. Which kind of makes the next paragraph irrelevant.

I question the uniformity in the bottom of this list, with each of the last six teams choosing Beasley. This may be true, but it's also possible that Chad Ford didn't actually break down the "2,184 potential lottery scenarios", and Beasley was the pick for these teams by default.

Mostly on the strength of being theoretically picked by the Heat, Timberwolves, and Grizzlies, Beasley looks like the favorite. I wouldn't bet on him with this information, since I have no clue how accurate Chad Ford's predictions on this are- it's likely that the oddsmakers' predictions are superior. We'll see if the odds change after the lottery, which is on May 20.

NBA Draft Lottery Odds

I spend a good deal of time on this site looking at odds, and trying to determine whether they're worth betting on or not. Sometimes this is pretty difficult, trying to incorporate all kinds of different factors, and make necessary adjustments.

Sometimes it's really, really easy.

The Greek has posted odds on the NBA Draft lottery. No, not the NBA Draft- the lottery. Like, which ping pong ball will pop up. It's not very hard to figure out what these odds should be-the chances for each team are listed here.

If you bet on these, you have a problem.

Shockingly, there is no value in these. It'd be pretty amusing if there was- if the oddsmakers screwed up and put the Heat at +1750 or something. Alas, no.

Unless...remember this? For anyone who throws these conspiracy theories around, this is your time. Oh, Stern is going to give the Knicks Beasley to get their franchise back on track? Okay, then put $300 down on them at +800.

What would be really funny would be if any of these odds changed. We'd have to assume that someone maxed them out, and The Greek didn't want to put themselves at too much risk on a silly prop. I'd like to interview anyone who actually bets significant money on these, and figure out what their reasoning is.

The Morning After: Rating the Mockers

Today we’re going to take a look at how 20 different mock drafts fared against the real thing.

Scoring system: 10 pts for a correct pick, 5 for one slot off, 3 for two slots off.

The Champ

The best mock of the twenty I tracked was Chad Ford’s. Chad got 12 of the 30 first round picks correct, and accumulated a total of 156 points. That’s coming up big under pressure- the biggest name beating out his 19 challengers.

The second place finisher surprised me- Jeff Goodman, of FoxSports.com, got 12 correct, 148 points total. Honestly, I have no idea who that is.


The Bottom

AOL Sports and The Big Lead had two of the lowest scores, at 67 and 87, respectively. This is at least partially explained by the fact that those mocks were made at least a week ago, so I have to cut them some slack.

CNNSI’s Chris Ekstrand had the second lowest total, with 77 points. Not a good showing from CNNSI’s lone mock draft.

Here’s the full breakdown of the 20 mocks:






















And now looking at the four different categories of mocks:


The Experts






As expected, the three people who do this for a living- Chad Ford, Draft Express, and NBADraft.net, had the highest average total of any group, at 135.


MSM


Three mainstream sites contributed a total of seven mocks, ranging from Goodman’s 148 to Ekstrand’s 77. NBADraft.net’s 119 would have been fourth in this group.


Newspapers



I didn’t expect these four papers to do every well, but their mocks turned out OK.


Other


“Other” consists mostly of bloggers, but CHN and HoopsHype are more “websites” than “blogs”. Again, TBL and AOL had the significant disadvantage of doing this way ahead of time.

The top four were pretty easy, but the Celtics trade threw everybody off- only two mocks had Green at No. 10.

I don’t know what we really learned here, beyond that we should trust Chad Ford.

Consensus Mock: Last Minute Update

I'll stick with my 11-30 from the original, but here is an updated top 10, based on changes in the mocks by DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, and Chad Ford.

Also, in terms of lines, sportsbetting.com has Corey Brewer at 5:2 to go 7th or later. However, NBADraft.net has him going 10th, while Draft Express has him 8th. Just a thought.

Everyone also seems to have Yi going to Boston at 5 now: SportsBetting has dropped that line from 2:1 to 3:2.

Horford is the heavy favorite to go 3rd (1:6); Conley is expected to go 4th, but the line isn't as decisive (1:2).

Back later tonight after the draft, breaking down these 11 mocks and more to see who got it right.

The Consensus Mock Draft

UPDATE (5:01PM ET): Check out my latest post for an updated top 10, and an analysis of the up to the minute betting lines.


Everybody loves the NBA Draft. In fact, I plan on attending Thursday night (which may or may not be a good idea).

Even more than the draft itself, it seems that everyone loves creating mock drafts.

If I followed the NBA more closely, I would do the same. But since I really don't know enough about the needs of each team, I decided I'd just steal other people's opinions, basically.

I took 11 other mock drafts, and tried to come to some kind of consensus.

The 11 mocks: Chris Ekstrand (CNNSI), Chad Ford (ESPN), Jeff Goodman and Peter Schrager (FOXSports), NBADraft.net, Draft Express, The Big Lead, Jeff Reyonlds, Tony Mejia and Gary Parrish of CBS Sportline, and Shawn Sigel of CollegeHoops.net.

I have included a couple facts for each player. One is their ranking (among college players) in John Hollinger's ratings. Also, for the top picks, I have included their chance of being drafted in that position according to the lines at sportsbetting.com and betus.com.


1. Portland- Greg Oden, C, Ohio State

Hollinger rank: 2nd

Well, the "Who's #1" debate is over.


2. Seattle- Kevin Durant, SF, Texas

Hollinger rank: 1st (by a lot)

I will defer to the experts on this topic.

The first half against Kansas remains the best half of basketball I've ever watched.


3. Atlanta- Al Horford, PF, Florida

Hollinger rank: 6th
SportsBetting %: 59%
BetUS %: 57%

It's either here or Memphis.

I have very little to add, except I probably saw Horford play 20 times before I realized he was Dominican. Then it immediately seemed really obvious.


4. Memphis- Mike Conley Jr., PG, Ohio State

Hollinger rank: 3rd
Sportsbetting %: 31%
BetUS %: 32%

He won't fall out of the top six, but only 2 of the 11 mocks have him going here. Atlanta and Milwaukee are the two other likely landing spots.

Conley apparently has a 40.5" vertical. I would have never guessed that.


5. Boston- Corey Brewer, SF, Florida

Hollinger rank: 24th
SportsBetting %: 21%
BetUS %: 20% (they actually have Yi higher for this pick, at 27%)

Everybody has him going to either Boston, Minnesota, or Charlotte.

Overshadowed by Noah for so long, but he really came into his own this year. Each time I saw him play I wondered why he wasn't being talked about as a top pick. I guess I should stop wondering.


6. Milwaukee- Brandan Wright, PF, North Carolina

Hollinger rank: 5th
SportsBetting %: 13%
BetUS %: 24%

Three of the mocks have him going here, but he's also as high as three and as low as 10.

When I saw Wright play in person (at the Garden against Gonzaga...they lost) I was stunned by how long his arms are. With shoes, Brandan Wright is 6'10". He has a wingspan of 7'3.75". Just half an inch less than Yi and Oden.

(Side note: I didn't realize this until now, but Durant's wingspan is 7'4.75", longest of anyone in the draft.)


7. Minnesota- Spencer Hawes, C, Washington

Hollinger rank: 30th
BetUS %: 22%

This is the highest I've seen Hawes going. Five of 11 mocks have him taken here, while some have him sliding to Philly at 12.


8. Charlotte- Joakim Noah, PF, Florida

Hollinger rank: 11th
BetUS %: 29%

Two have him going eighth, but two also have him going both fourth and 10th, respectively.

Personally I'm hoping he goes 10th so we can hear the Leinart comparisons all night. That'd be fantastic.


9. Chicago- Yi Jianlian, C, China

BetUS %: 23%

Most have him going here or 10th, although one guy has the Celtics trading up two spots to get him at three. I'm pretty sure he's being serious.

(Note: That draft may be updated, but as of 1:57PM on Wednesday, that's what is said. I swear.)


10. Sacramento- Jeff Green, SF, Georgetown

Hollinger rank: 14th

Two have Green going 5th, while one has him as low as 12th. Two slot him in here.

11. Atlanta- Acie Law, PG, Texas A&M

Hollinger rank: 27th

The 11 mocks I looked at are split on Law; four have him here, four have him 14th. This Schrager guy has him falling to 26th. Whatever. He can't even spell Crittenton in his explanation.

12. Philadelphia- Al Thornton, SF/PF, Florida State

Hollinger rank: 25th

Six mocks have him going here, with three more having him at 13.


13. New Orleans- Nick Young, SG, USC

Hollinger rank: Not in top 30

This (five mocks) or 15th (3) to Detroit seems to be the consensus.

7' wingspan, 40.5" vertical. Some are very high on him.


14. LA Clippers- Javaris Crittenton, PG, Georgia Tech

Hollinger rank: 17th

Five have him going here, although there are two each who have him going 19th and 20th, respectively.

I went to three Tech games this year, so I can at least pretend to be an expect on Crittenton. He's flashy, but more importantly he can get to the rim and finish inside. I think he'll be a better pro than Law.


15. Detroit- Rodney Stuckey, SG, Eastern Washington

Hollinger rank: 9th

Six have him going here, with other predictions scattered. Lowest is 20. But Chad Ford has convinced me.


16. Washington- Julian Wright, PF, Kansas

Hollinger rank: 19th

Wright seems to be sliding- both Draft Express and NBADraft.net dropped him down to this slot in their updated Wednesday mocks.

Wright is 6'8, 211 lbs., but can only bench 185 lbs. twice. I know it doesn't really matter, but could one person have mentioned that, instead of hearing about this a thousand times?


17. New Jersey- Josh McRoberts, PF, Duke

Hollinger rank: 8th

This is as good as it's gonna get for McRoberts. Four have him going here, while the rest are scattered between 19 and 30 (!).

18. Golden State- Jason Smith, C, Colorado St.

Hollinger rank: 22nd

Nine of 11 mocks have Smith going in the 16-18 range.


19. LA Lakers- Rudy Fernandez, SG, Spain

This is best case for Fernandez- four mocks have him going here, one has him going as low as 28th.

I think the best part about the one year in college rule is it made the draft more interesting. Fernandez, the 19th pick, is just the second guy taken who didn't go to college in the US. Before the new rule it seemed like half the draft was high school/foreign guys whom nobody really new anything about. It's a lot more fun this way.


20. Miami- Thaddeus Young, SF, Georgia Tech

Hollinger rank: 4th

This would obviously be a disappointment for Young, who multiple mocks have going 13th, 16th, 18th, and 20th.

Young will be a good test of Hollinger's ranking. He's obviously athletic, but he completely disappeared at times last year.


21. Philadelphia- Sean Williams, C, Boston College (kind of)

Hollinger rank: 13th

Everybody has Williams in the second half of the first round, but nobody really agrees on where.

If you Google "Sean Williams Boston College Pot" you get 428,000 results.


22. Charlotte- Tiago Splitter, PF, Brazil

Did I mention it's great that there are less foreign guys that we know nothing about?


23. New York- Wilson Chandler, SF, DePaul

Hollinger rank: 18th

Googling "fire Isiah Thomas" only got me 190,000 results. I wish Balkman had sucked.


24. Phoenix- Marco Belinelli, SG, Italy

Five of 11 mocks have Belinelli going here, which is a ton for the 24th pick.


25. Utah- Derrick Byars, SF, Vanderbilt

Three have him here, three have him 20th, one as high as 18th, one as low as 27th.


26. Houston- Nick Fazekas, PF, Nevada

Hollinger rank- 7th

Three mocks have him going here. Seven have him falling out of the first round.


27. Detroit- Morris Almond, SG, Rice

Hollinger rank- Not in top 30

Of the 11 mocks I looked at, there are 10 different players selected by Detroit here. I'm just going with Chad Ford, to be honest.


28. San Antonio- Jared Dudley, SF, Boston College

Hollinger rank: 10th

Going here in four mocks.


29. Phoenix- Petteri Koponen, PG, Finland

In three of 11 mocks.


30. Philadelphia- Glen Davis, PF, LSU

Hollinger rank: 25

And we're done. Check back tomorrow as I take a look at which mocks were the most accurate.

UPDATE (5:01PM ET): Check out my latest post for an updated top 10, and an analysis of the up to the minute betting lines.