Against The Spread

Last week's post about consistency was pretty complicated- my head starts to hurt if I think about that stuff for too long. Today's post is quite the opposite. This is simply how teams have fared against the spread in conference play- their average ATS, rather than the standard deviation of that average.

In some sense this shows how each team has done against expectations, but that's not entirely true. As the season progresses, those expectations are adjusted, and that influences the spread. To consistently cover, you have to improve with these expectations-it's not enough to just be better than people thought you were going to be, since they will catch on eventually.

This first table is the top 10 teams against the spread this year, measured by point margin. I have also included a column showing how much you would've won if you had bet $100 on that team in every game, at -110 juice. Through games of 3/3.


The Boilermakers are unmatched in both metrics, as they're an incredible 13-3 ATS in the Big Ten. This will happen when you're expected to go to the NIT, and end up with a protected seed in the NCAAs. In their first eight conference games, they were favored by an average of 1.8 points, and outscored their opponents by an average of 6.25 ppg. In the second half, those numbers were 2.9 and 9.5. That's a pretty good recipe for covering in 81% of your games. (Edit: Well, down to 76% after last night.)

It's kind of strange to see the Beasley-Walkers on this list. They absolutely destroyed expectations in their first five conference games, going 5-0 against the spread and covering by an average of 14.7 ppg. But after that fifth win, against Kansas, people started to pay attention. Since then, they're only 3-6 ATS, and their average is -0.9. They're not sneaking up on anybody anymore, for obvious reasons.

Louisville is better than people think? Really? I never would've guessed.

It really is amazing to see a team as widely respected as UCLA on this list. They've been favored by an average of 9.3 ppg in conference games, but won by an average of 12. They've been brilliant on the road, covering in seven of nine games.

Wisconsin's combination is a little odd. That is caused by losing ATS by a half point twice, and a single point once. Winning by 25 @Penn St. doesn't hurt either.

Now for the disappointments:

Ole Miss was 13-0 in non-conference play, ascending as high as 15th in the ESPN poll. But seven of those wins were by single digits, and they came against the 164th most difficult schedule in the country. Regardless, people thought they were good- they've been favored by an average of 3.0 ppg in SEC play. Unfortunately for them, they've been outscored by 3.1 ppg on their way to a 5-9 SEC record.

Incredibly, Texas A&M appears on this list despite beating Texas Tech by 44 last week (they were favored by 9). They've had an extremely strange year- a -14.9 average ATS in their first four games, +7.0 in their next five, then -9.4 in their final five. In fact, their updated consistency number is 17.7, which makes them easily the least consistent team among those in the power conferences.

It is difficult to go 4-11 ATS when you're getting an average of 13.9 ppg, but Oregon St. has managed to do just that. Although I guess it's not that difficult if you go winless in conference play and lose by an average of 18.9 ppg. The distribution of talent in the Pac-10 was truly amazing this year. Washington has the second worst RPI at 104; the Beavers are 257th. Or, if you prefer tempo-free stats, the difference between 1 and 9 is about the same as the difference between 9 and 10.

A week ago, Texas Tech wouldn't have been anywhere near this list- in fact, they would've been close to the overachievers list, at +2.21. But when you lose two games by a combined 102 points, well, things go south pretty quickly.

The ATS data for the teams that didn't make these lists can be found here.

Photo: Lafayette Online.

Blogpoll: Week Eleven

The full blogpoll is here, my ballot was as follows.

This thing is really a mess this week.

I expected to look like an idiot with this if Drake lost to Creighton last night (Creighton was favored by six), but they won in overtime, 68-60. Kyle Whelliston predicted the exact score, which is pretty impressive. It was Drake's first win @Creighton since 2002, and their best win of the year so far. They have a good shot at starting off 11-0 in the MVC before a trip to surprising Illinois St. on February 5.

This ballot does end up looking kind of silly, since Tennessee somehow lost to Kentucky last night. I suppose it is difficult to win on the road when you shoot 7/26 from three and get outrebounded by 11. I still think the Volunteers are the best team in the conference, but maybe the gap is smaller than I thought.

Ole Miss was 15th in the overall blogpoll, but I don't have them ranked. This will continue to be the case until they win a road SEC game. Mississippi St. on Saturday would be a good place to start.

Pretty much the same situation for Vanderbilt. In their two SEC road games they lost to Kentucky in double OT (which was really a terribly played game on both ends, although that loss doesn't look as bad after last night), and lost to Tennessee by 20. They play @UF and @Ole Miss in the next week, so they'll have no shortage of opportunities to prove themselves.

I'm honestly not really sure what inspired me to put Gonzaga so high. Although that win over UConn in Boston could end up looking pretty good. They will probably get blown out at Memphis on Saturday, and that'll be the end of that. St. Mary's is #15 because they handed Drake their only loss, beat Oregon, and have only lost @Texas and @SIU. They are also 4-0 on neutral floors. They should move to 6-0 in the WCC before a home game against Gonzaga a week from Monday.

I have West Virginia 18th, which is the highest of anyone in the blogpoll (they are unranked in the full ballot). Their only losses are in road/neutral games to Tennessee, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Louisville, and they've beaten Duquesne, Marquette, and Syracuse at home. They play @Georgetown on Saturday in a game that Pomeroy's numbers actually have them winning, so that'll be interesting. More on the Hoyas later tonight.

Some interesting matchups/lines tonight (for the record, this is not, in any way, shape, or form, betting advice; it's really the opposite of that, as the lines that the books set tend to show us when the perceptions of teams are skewed):

Missouri @ Texas Tech (-1); suprising that TT is only laying a point here, as Mizzou is 1-6 in road/neutral games, while Tech is undefeated at home, including last Wednesday's win over A&M.
Baylor @ Texas A&M (-9); A&M laying a whole lot of points to a good Baylor team that's already beaten South Carolina and Nebraska on the road.
Kansas St. (-3) @ Colorado; really short line here, as K State just won @Oklahoma, and Colorado already has eight losses.
Florida (-1) @ South Carolina; another surprisingly small number
UNC (-7.5) @ Miami, Memphis (-13) @ Tulsa; Carolina and Memphis getting 70% of the action on the road, as usual

Blogpoll: Week Nine

Everybody's votes are here (Google Doc); the final ballot is as follows:

Please excuse me for not getting too excited about UNC. They beat a Clemson team that is not that good by two in OT. They would have lost if Clemson managed better than 14/27 from the line. If the Tigers make a couple more FTs, UNC loses and they're down to 6th in the poll.

Meanwhile, all UCLA did this week was beat both Stanford and Cal rather easily on the road. I moved them up from 5 to 4 because of this.

After beating Pepperdine by 37, I have Memphis' chances of going 31-0 up to 32%.

The biggest discrepancy between my ballot and the compilation is with Ole Miss. I have them 20th, while they're 13th here. They play @Tennessee at 8pm; if they win, I'll certainly move them way up. And if they make a game of it, I won't drop them too far, as that would be the most impressive part of their resume to this point.

I also stubbornly have Texas higher than any of the 13 other voters. They destroyed St. Mary's, and those Tennessee and UCLA wins are looking more impressive by the day. If Texas played Ole Miss on a neutral court tomorrow, I'm pretty confident that the Longhorns would emerge victorious.

I understand why Xavier is 22nd; they have three losses (including getting blown out by 22 @Arizona St.), and the only name team they've beaten is Indiana. But after their performance in their last four games, I think you'd be hard-pressed to find 20 better teams in the country. (Pomeroy's rankings, which I should do a rundown of sometime soon, agree with this, as Xavier is 5th.)