Futures Watch: Week 2

I did this last year- nobody was actually reading then, but hopefully it was good practice. Every week (in theory), I'll take a look at some interesting futures odds on who will win the World Series.

The main tool I use in doing this, beyond common sense, is the BP Playoff Odds report. There are multiple versions of it, but this early in the season the PECOTA version is the useful one. It takes into account games that have been played, but also uses PECOTA's preseason projections to forecast the rest of the season. The original version is an excellent resource later in the year, but since it only relies on data from games played this season, it's fairly useless right now- I don't think the Royals have a 35% chance of winning the Central.

(All records/percentages through Tuesday's games. Odds taken from 5Dimes, Sportsbook, Bodog, and BetUS)

Oakland, 125:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 4-4
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 30.3%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 3-4
PECOTA: 36.0%

These are PECOTA suggestions, as it'd be hard to turn down 100:1 odds on a team that has a 1 in 3 chance of playing in October. The question becomes, do they really have such a good chance? The Rays have already been discussed- if you believe they can allow 226 fewer runs than last year, then go for it. It's worth noting that Tampa's odds have been bet down (I'm sure PECOTA played a role in this), as you could've gotten them at 200:1 just to win the AL a few weeks ago.

PECOTA is higher than others on Oakland's offense, and has them finishing with 80 wins. In the abstract, this seems too high, but looking at their roster, PECOTA's expectations don't seem particularly unreasonable. Failing to account for potential injuries is not the issue, as they only have Chavez playing 55% and Harden making 16 starts. In that miserable division, they are probably worth a flyer. I really haven't figured the A's out yet though- if I do, I'll let you know.

Milwaukee, 30:1 (5Dimes)
Record: 6-1
PECOTA: 51.1%

I am not one to overreact to early season results. They do need to be taken into account, though. Before the season started PECOTA had the Cubs winning 91 games, and the Brewers 88. That is not a huge difference, but it's cetainly significant. Seven games into the season, Milwaukee is two games up on Chicago in the standings. Even if we (correctly) infer nothing from their performance so far, they've already made up 2/3 of the gap that existed in March. This is proven in the fact that PECOTA has the Cubs on pace for 92.7 wins, with Milwaukee at 91.5. We shouldn't read too much into how the two teasm will play throughout the rest of the season based on just seven games, but gapes in the standings, however early, certainly do matter.

This team can really hit. Braun and Fielder are the big names, but Hart is right behind them, and many people are expecting a big year out of Weeks. Everyone in the lineup is projected to have a VORP of over 20 except for Kendall. He is their one weak spot, although has somehow hit .526/.565/.737 over the first week. This is a very good lineup, and has as good a chance of any non-Colorado team of leading the league in runs scored.

At 30:1, you're going to have to take on some risk. In this case, that comes in the form of the pitching staff. Sheets is off to a fantastic start, but obviously the issue with him is health. Gallardo is out, but has looked good in rehab. The rotation also has some upside in Parra and Villanueva. Sure, it's possible that Sheets gets hurt again, Gallardo never makes it back, and the two newcomers to the rotation fall flat on their faces. But at these odds, it's worth that risk.

(Yes, I'm aware of their closer issues. But they do have Turnbow, Riske, Torres, and whomever leaves the rotation when Gallardo returns. I don't need to tell you have overrated closers are- it's not a terrible bullpen.)

Baltimore, 250:1 (BetUS)
Record: 6-1
PECOTA: 2.3%

I wouldn't actually bet on this, but I'd imagine it's rare to get a team in first place- by two games!- at these odds. I didn't want to go the whole year without writing about the Orioles, and this is likely my only chance. The most relevant thing they're doing right now is delaying the potential Roberts-to-Chicago trade, which only helps Milwaukee.

Detroit, 12:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 0-7
PECOTA: 40.1%

These aren't very good either, but 12:1 now is better than 7.5:1 a week ago. Yes, they are struggling, but everything is relative- it's not like the Indians (4-5) are lighting the world on fire. If you are dead set on betting on the Tigers, now is probably the time to do so.

Opening Day Futures Odds

I've collected the Opening Day (or close enough) futures odds for each MLB team to win the World Series. I figured these will be fun to look back on when the Indians have their parade about seven months from now. Odds were taken from Sportsbook, VIP, Bodog, 5Dimes, and Carib.

Apparently there is a clear hierarchy in the American League- it's the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers, and then everyone else. The gap between the Indians and Tigers amuses me to no end. VIP has Detroit at 4.75:1, and Cleveland at 16:1. This is an improvement, as the Indians were 18:1 a few weeks ago. I guess it really comes down to the fact that the Tigers have Pudge batting 8th; I really think that's going to make the difference in the division this year. That, and their superior bullpen. Denny Bautista, Jason Grilli, and Todd Jones really scare me. (I think the Indians at 16:1 is a pretty good bet, if that wasn't clear.)

The Dodgers' and Diamondbacks' lines are intriguing. People talk about the NL West being wide open and having four legit contenders, but there are really four levels there- those two, the Rockies and Padres, [null], and then the Giants. Webb, Haren, and potentially Johnson would be quite formidable in October. And Torre seems to be leaning towards the correct decision with their outfield situation, although he did start Pierre tonight.

16:1 seems a little high for the Cubs; they are as low as 7:1 at Sportsbook and Carib, and I think 12:1 would be about right. They are the clear favorites in their division, probably the second best team in the league. And let's face it- the Mets really aren't that good.

A longshot? I'll take a cue from Sheehan here and go with the Rangers at 125:1. They are going to score a lot of runs, and in that division, who knows? Remember, the Rockies were 100:1 to win it all at this point last year. Not that they won the World Series, or came particularly close. But they did get there, and there's always hedging.

I have been trying to figure out what odds I would have to get to bet on the Orioles. 5000:1? I don't know. The chances of that roster finishing in the top two in that division (which wouldn't even necessarily be enough) are very close to zero.

Somebody's Gonna Be Wrong

Comparing preseason predictions from various sources is a lot of fun, and also a pretty good way to get a feel for what's expected from teams from various sections of the media. What I've done here is take predictions from a few different places- 5 ESPN analysts in their season preview, three Yahoo! guys, the SI staff, Joe Sheehan (AL, NL), and PECOTA- and find the biggest discrepancies bewteen win totals for each team. The first largest differences are below, followed by a discussion of why there's such a lack of consensus, and who looks to be correct.

By coincidence, this ended up being all AL teams, which is fine by me.

Seattle Mariners
Average: 86.2
High: Steve Phillips (ESPN), 92
Low: PECOTA, 75

Do you think Phillips can spell "Pythagorean"? I don't.

That being said, 75 is really low. The PECOTA projection does come with something of a disclaimer, since it has Ichiro hitting .303/.346/.384. In 4774 career ABs, Suzuki has hit .333/.379/.437; this is his age 34 season, but thats a huge drop, and Ichiro has outperformed his PECOTA pretty much every year.

Still, even if we bump PECOTA's projection up to 77, that's a 15 win difference. And this is far from an isolated incident. The four ESPN guys (Stark, Kurkjian, Olney, and Phillips) and the three Yahoo! guys (Henson, Brown, and Passan) have the winning an average of 90 games. Sheehan, Law, and various computer projections predict an average of 79 victories.

They won 88 games last year, while being outscored by 19 runs. The high predictions employ the "88 wins + Bedard" logic. The others are starting with a baseline of 79, and giving them a boost for Bedard but factoring in some regression for their aging lineup. I don't think it's particularly hard to figure out who to side with here.

Tampa Bay Rays
Average: 77.3
High: PECOTA, 88
Low: Steve Henson (Yahoo!), 72

The thing you have to love about PECOTA is that it's 100% unbiased. When it runs the numbers and comes up with 88 wins for a team that's never won 70, it doesn't adjust that to something that seems a little more reasonable. This paid off with the White Sox prediction last year; considering its history of success (not limited to that one example, obviously), the extreme predictions for Seattle and Tampa are hard to ignore.

I don't really know who this Steve Henson fellow is, but that's okay- he's got some wacky predictions, which are always appreciated. Here is his analysis on the Rays:

"The Rays are improving but are still middle-school level to the Red Sox graduate students."

This is a little over the top, but I think that's the mainstream consensus. Personally, I have no idea how many games this team is going to win (although I'd certainly take the over on 72). There's no big Pythag gap here- last year their expected record was 67-95, and their actual record was 66-96. Three things are causing the huge expected jump- a vastly improved defense, additions to the bullpen, and the development of young players. They were a horrible fielding team last year, but PECOTA expects them to be a little above average this season. The biggest upgrade is going from Brendan Harris (-19 in Dewan's system) embarrassing himself at short to Jason Barlett's +18 glove. The also have Upton finally spending a full year in center, and the (eventual) addition of Longoria to the lineup will allow Iwamura to slide over to second.

Combine that with the addition of Matt Garza, and the progress of Kazmir, Shields, Sonnanstine and Co., and it's easy to see that their run prevention will be much improved. PECOTA has a team that allowed 944 runs last year decreasing that by a whopping 226 runs. Without looking it up, I'm going to go ahead and assume that that'd be the largest reduction in the history of baseball; that's about three months worth of runs for the Giants' offense.

Henson's prediction of 72 wins for the Rays is insanely low; 88 is high, but not that high. It's hard to both see and quantify these internal improvements- switching up defensive alignments, young players improving, old ones regressing- which is why PECOTA is so far off from the general consensus.

Texas Rangers
Average: 73.0
High: Joe Sheehan (Baseball Prospectus), 80
Low: Steve Phillips, 64

This is not a fair fight.

I watched Phillips' "analysis" of the Rangers on their ESPN season preview page, and I must say, he didn't really enlighten me. He doesn't think Millwood and Padilla are top of the rotation starters, which is reasonable. He goes on to explain that Texas is going to have to outslug their opponents. I don't know how he came to that 64 number (he probably doesn't either), but we should remember that they do get to play almost 60 games against that increasingly horrific division.

Sheehan is bullish on their offense; he has Texas scoring 840 runs, which is 60 higher than PECOTA. He seems to be high on Blalock who absolutely tore it up (.313/.405/.656) after returning after missing three months last year. Because of his disappointing '05 and '06 campaigns, PECOTA is very down on Blalock with a projected .263/.331/.436 line, so that's probably causing a decent amount of a difference. Because of how unique he is, Josh Hamilton is obviously a hard guy to find comparisons for; PECOTA has him going from .292/.368/.554 last season to .283/.349/.481 this year. This makes some sense, since last year was in the easier league and a better hitters park, but it still seems low. In writing this paragraph, I have convinced myself that the Rangers are going to score a whole lot of runs this season, and certainly win a lot more than 64 games.

Baltimore Orioles
Average: 63.6
High: Steve Henson, 70
Low: Buster Olney (ESPN), 56

Olney does love the extreme predictions- 49 wins for the Nationals last year is one I'll never forget. This one is much more sane though. They have a decent outfield, but they forgot about the whole "shortstop" thing, and that is a truly awful rotation in an impossible division. Our new friend Henson thinks they will win just two less games than the Rays; now that is a bet I'd like to make.

Toronto Blue Jays
Average: 86.2
High: Joe Sheehan, 91
Low: PECOTA, 78

This is very interesting- a third huge discrepancy in the East, but this time between two "people" that look at things similarly. These are the only two sets of projections that also offer RS/RA, which is helpful. PECOTA has Toronto at 762/775, while Sheehan predicts 761/676. So it's pretty clear where the disagreement is here.

This may be partially caused by different opinions on their defense- they are good, it's just a question of how good. But I think it's mostly their top 3 starters. Burnett can opt out of his deal at the end of the year (thanks, Keith). PECOTA has him throwing 185 innings with a 3.83 ERA; it's worth noting that in his last contract year he threw 209 innings with a 3.44 ERA in 2005, his last contract year. That's certainly too optimistic of an expectation, but it's been shown that players perform better in contract years, and I don't believe PECOTA takes that into account. So that's something to keep in mind. Staying healthy is the first step, obviously.

PECOTA has Halladay at a 4.06 ERA, which is certainly conservative, as his career ERA is 3.63- I'm assuming that's caused by his relatively weak peripherals.

Finally, PECOTA is very low in McGowan, with a 4.60 ERA. Obviously, it hasn't been reading The Baseball Analysts. Beyond that intriguing article, I've read a few other things on McGowan. I think he's expected to improve on last year's 4.08 ERA, and certainly beat his PECOTA projection. So yeah, it looks like Toronto will have some excellent run prevention this year, as one can reasonably expect their top three starters to be significantly better than what PECOTA suggests.

Bill Bavasi And Pythagoras Are Not Friends

After weeks of buildup, the Orioles and Mariners finally completed the deal that sends Erik Bedard to Seattle, with Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio heading to Baltimore.

Unlike the Tejada trade, or giving billions to Torii Hunter, the problem with this trade (from Seattle's standpoint) isn't the player they are receiving. Although there are concerns about his stamina/injuries (he's never thrown 200 innings), it's hard to argue with Bedard's 2007 numbers- a 3.16 ERA, and 221 Ks in 182 innings. PECOTA projects him as the third best pitcher in the AL, with a VORP of 42.2, behind only Sabathia and Beckett.

Bedard is very good. The thing is, so is Adam Jones. Last year, at the age of 21, Jones hit .314/.382/.586. He also happens to play CF, and is excellent defensively. Even with all the megadeals, he is likely the best prospect (if he can still be considered one) to change teams this offseason.

The addition of Bedard obviously helps, but losing Jones cancels out a significant portion of that boost. With Ichiro already in center, Seattle goes from having Jones as their right fielder (projected VORP of 21.4, "Very Good" in RF) to having Brad Wilkerson (projected VORP of 4.1, "Average" in RF). So unlike the Santana trade, the Mariners are giving up a significant amount of 2008 value in order to acquire an ace. They're also losing something in giving up Sherrill, who has held lefties to a .167/.227/.291 line in his career.

But still, Seattle is improving their 2008 roster. And since they won 88 games last year, and play in a relatively weak (and small) division, there is a lot of value in a marginal improvement of 2-3 wins.

If they really were an 88-win team in '07, this would be a decent argument. But (and I'm obviously not breaking any new ground here, as Law, Sheehan, USSM, and many others have already discussed this) they weren't. They were outscored by 19 runs- their Pythag record was 79-83. If you're going from 88 to 91 wins, and significantly increasing your chances of finishing ahead of the Angels and reaching the postseason, this is a defensible trade*. If, as is the case here, you're going from something like 82 wins to 85, and only marginally upping your odds of playing in October, it's not.

The predictive value of a team's RS/RA is not a complicated concept. Seattle scored 19 fewer runs than they allowed in 2007; they were a very average team. It seems absurd for a GM to lack a fundamental understanding of how good his current roster is, but that is the reason this trade went down.

*Maybe. I think this would be a very interesting debate. I kind of find it hard to believe that the next six years of Adam Jones, three really cheap and three under market, aren't worth more then the next two of Erik Bedard, slightly under market, whether you extend him or not. Throw in Sherrill and Tillman, and I just have a hard time seeing it. By the way, what do the Orioles want with Sherrill? 31-year old lefty specialists who throw 45 innings a year really don't have that much value on a team that's going to lose 95 games. Flip him in a trade, I guess?

Photo: amateurmusicians.net.

Profile: Erik Bedard

I've decided to start a new feature here at Vegas Watch, where I arbitrarily select a player that doesn't get as much attention as he probably deserves, and write a lot about him. These things will run every Monday, in theory. If you have a suggestion for a profile, please e-mail me at VegasWatch@gmail.com.

Erik Bedard is on pace to strike out more batters (271) than any AL pitcher has since 2000 (Pedro, 284). You probably didn't know that (I didn't until I just looked it up), because Bedard plays for the fourth place Orioles, and is just 24th in the majors with 12 wins.

Bedard is having a breakout year, but he isn't exactly new on the scene. He has been the Orioles' ace since 2005 (although, before this year, calling someone the Orioles' ace was like telling them they're the wittiest FanHouse commenter), and won 15 games last year.

But things have been different for Bedard in 2007, as he's been the second most valuable starter in baseball (behind Peavy). I thought I'd take a look at how he got here.


Minors

Erik Bedard (actually, according to Wikipedia, it's Érik Bédard) was born in Ontario, and didn't play competitive baseball until he walked onto the team at Norwalk Community College. There he became a junior college All-American, and impressed the Orioles enough for them to take him in the 6th round of the 1999 draft.

Bedard was sent to the GCL Orioles (Rookie), where he pitched very well in 29 innings, striking out 41 and allowing only 20 hits, with a 1.86 ERA. Along with the strikeouts, one of the impressive parts of Bedards minor league resume is that he never gave up HRs, and that was true immediately, as he allowed only one longball in the GCL.

In 2000 Bedard was promoted to Delmarva (A), and continued to impress, going 9-4. He only made 22 starts, as he began the season as a reliever, eventually moving into the rotation because of injuries (HT: USA Today). He had his faults- his ERA (3.57) rose, and his strikeout rate declined (from 12.7 SO/9 to 10.6). But he showed some important signs of improvement, as he significantly lowered his walk rate (from 4.03 BB/9 to 2.84), and continued to be very stingy with homers, allowing only 2 in 111 innings.

The next year Bedard, now 22, pitched for Fredrick (high A). He actually missed six weeks of the season with a shoulder injury, but he was brilliant when he was healthy, going 9-2 while striking out 130 in 96.1 IP. He continued to not allow home runs (0.37 HR/9), lowered his walk rate again (to 2.43), and allowed only 68 hits. His ERA was 2.15, with an impressive K/BB ratio of 5:1.

After 2001, people started paying attention. He finally cracked the Baseball America Top 100, coming in at 90th. He was listed as Baltimore's top pitching prospect. He also was mentioned in trade talks the Orioles had with the Phillies regarding Scott Rolen, but nothing came of that (obviously).

Beginning the 2002 season with Bowie (AA), Bedard peripherals regressed (2.2:1 K/BB ratio), but his low hit rate (5.64 H/9) allowed him to go 6-3 with a nifty 1.97 ERA. Amazingly, he didn't give up a single home run in 68.2 innings, which helps. On June 27 he was selected to the AA All-Star game. I'll let Baseball Prospectus 2003 take it from here:

"...he’s tearing up the league, up until June 26. On that day, throwing a two-hitter, he went out for the eighth inning, even though he had already reached his pitch count. The manager thought it was just so much fun, and then pop goes the elbow. The MRI showed that he had a partially torn ligament. The Orioles’ medical staff prescribed rest, hoping that the tear would heal on its own. Six weeks later, without taking another MRI to see if it had healed at all, they had Bedard resume throwing. The very next day, the pain was back, and Bedard was heading for surgery."

Bedard had Tommy John surgery in September 2002, and only pitched 19.1 innings in '03, in Rookie and A-ball. (He did strike out 26 batters, but as a 24 year old at those levels, that's not terribly impressive.)


Majors

Bedard won the 5th spot in the Orioles 2004 rotation out of spring training, but actually started the year in AAA, as the Orioles didn't need their 5th starter until April 10. I doubt the Orioles really knew what to expect from Bedard- his had barely pitched since June 2002, and that was at AA. The results were mixed, as Bedard went 6-10 with a 4.59 ERA (not bad for a 5th starter, really). As one would expect, his peripherals moved in the wrong direction. The most disturbing of these trends was his walk rate, which was all the way up to 4.7 BB/9. His strikeout rate, although not what it once was, was very solid considering the level of competition, at 7.9 SO/9.

Bedard got off to a tremendous start in 2005, going 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA in his first 9 starts. He was clearly a different pitcher than in '04, as he cut his walk rate in half (to 2.08 BB/9), and also decreased his HR/9 (0.85 to 0.45), while his K rate held steady. But, as seemed to be the trend at this point, his season was cut short, as he went on the DL with a strained MCL on May 26.

This injury was a huge step back for Bedard. After missing almost two months, he came back and was not the same pitcher he had been. He went 1-6 the rest of the year, with a 5.40 ERA. His walk rate went right back up to 4.67 BB/9, and his hit rate increased, as did his HR rate. After posting a 3.7 K/BB ratio before the injury, it was down to 1.7 afterwards.

In 2006, everything finally came together for Bedard. First and foremost, he managed to go the whole year without going on the DL. In 196.1 innings (55 above his previous high), he went 15-11 with a 3.76 ERA. His performance was right inbetween his two halves of '05. He got his control back, lowering his walk rate to 3.2 BB/9. An important aspect of his '06 performance was significantly increasing his ground ball rate, from 40% in '05 to 49% last year.

This year, Bedard has made the jump from being the best pitcher on the Orioles to become one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He actually got off to a slow start, with a 6.09 ERA in April, but has gone 9-2 with a 2.20 ERA since. There are two main reasons for this improvement- one being completely his doing, the other having very little to do with him.

The first reason, obviously, is the fact that he decided to start striking everybody out. From FanGraphs, here is his K/9 for each year of his ML career:

Well, then. The way he made the jump this year from 7.8 K/9 to 11.0 is actually very interesting. He has actually gotten to two strikes on less hitters this year (44%) than last year (55%). But once he gets there, he's been filthy. This year, once Bedard has two strikes on a hitter, he gets the K 53% of the time- last year that number was 37%.

As I mentioned before, part of Bedard's improvement can be attributed to a factor beyond his control, that being the Orioles' defense. In '04, '05, and '06, the Orioles ranked 18th, 17th, and 26th, respectively, in the majors in Defensive Efficiency. Because of this, Bedard had above average BABiPs (Batting Average on Balls in Play) all three years. Here is a graph of his yearly BABiPs.


This year the Orioles rank 8th in baseball in Defensive Efficiency. This has allowed Bedard's BABiP to go from .320 last year to just .292 in 2007.

Bedard's BAA (Batting Average Against) has gone from .261 last year to .214 this year, a drop of .047. About 60% of that is due to the increased strikeouts, while the other 40% is due to the Orioles' improved defense.

According to Jeff from Cot's Baseball Contracts, Bedard will have accumulated 5 years and 171 days of service time after next season, leaving him just one day short of qualifying for free agency. So, unless he signs an extension, Bedard will be a free agent after the 2009 season. Although he'll turn 31 in March, 2010, and the club that signs him will probably be paying for his decline, Bedard should do quite well for himself if he decides to become a free agent in a couple years.

Information for this article taken from Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus, The Baseball Cube, Baseball America, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Wikipedia, and FanGraphs. Pictures taken from here, here, here, and Mr. Irrelevant; all graphs taken from FanGraphs.

Last week's profile: Hanley Ramirez

Erik Bedard's Career Statistics