Different format for this one, since the last one was so ugly. The second column is each player's predicted Cy Young Predictor finish, and the third is their odds at Bodog.
I'm not sure how they figure Lincecum to be the favorite over Webb at this point. I know they haven't been historically bad, but the Giants' offense is still not good. Webb is already two wins ahead, and he's in a good position to add to that lead going forward. Regardless, I don't think there's value in either of those--the NL race is much tighter than the AL.
Webb and Lincecum have created some separation between themselves and the rest of the field, which shows in these odds. Hamels stands out a bit, at +1500. He's had a fantastic year thus far, with a 3.16 ERA and 126:34 K:BB in a league leading 142.2 innings. He only has nine wins, but with that lineup, that shouldn't be too much of a problem the rest of the way.
Zambrano is overvalued at +800. That's probably because his ERA (2.85) is so much lower than his QERA (4.53). His HR rate is down over 50% from last year, but his ground ball rate is only marginally higher, and his K rate is down significantly.
There is a big dropoff between Zambrano and the rest of the field. Santana still has a chance--he has a great history in the second half, for whatever that's worth--but he only has eight wins, and there are a lot of very good pitchers in front of him.
Well that was thrilling. Although the second place finisher was somewhat surprising. The NL leaders in VORP, among pitchers:
Nothing against the guy, but how did Harang get 16% of the vote? (And why did I include him and not Smoltz? No idea.) I'd like to know what the thought was behind that, or if it was just sixteen Reds fans. I guess at the end a few people might have just been voting for who would get second between Harang and Webb; but really, who cares?
The importance of having a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation in the postseason isn't new. In 1963, the Dodgers were just sixth out of 10 NL teams in offense, scoring 3.93 R/G. Despite this, they won the World Series, on the strength of starters Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. Here is the combined line of Koufax and Drysdale in their three starts in the '63 Series:
The Dodgers swept the Yankees in four games, as their starters (Podres being the third) got 106 of the 108 outs.
As impressive as that was, the 2001 Diamondbacks were probably even more impressive, if only because their dominance was over three series rather than one. Here is the combined line of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in the 2001 postseason:
I had forgotten about this, but in Game 6 against the Yankees, the D'Backs were up 15-0 after four innings, and were clearly going to force a seventh game. Going against all logic, Arizona manager Bob Brenly left Johnson in for seven innings, apparently so he could protect a 15 (later 13) run lead. Sure enough, Johnson was needed in Game 7, on 0 days rest. This is detailed in Neyer's book, although it did turn out well for Arizona.
As the playoffs have expanded and extra off days have been added to accommodate TV, top starters have become even more important, as they can now potentially pitch four games in the five game division series. With that in mind, let's take a look at the 1-2 starters on teams that still have a shot at October.
1. Cleveland (C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona)
I wrote about Fausto the other day, so I'll use this space to promote C.C. for Cy Young. At this point, it's really between Sabathia and Beckett. Their lines:
I'm already mad about this, and the voting hasn't even happened yet. There is no possible way to look at this and say Beckett has been better. They have essentially the same ERA, which makes the comparison quite easy, since Sabathia has pitched 38.1 more innings. That's over four games. I would have some faith that the voters would see how obvious this is, but when Colon won in '05, all expectation of the voters being at all reasonable was lost.
2. Boston (Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling)
One could make an argument for either the Padres or Angels being here. I'll take the Red Sox' duo, however. Beckett and Peavy are basically a wash (Peavy has the ridiculous ERA, but remember he pitches in the NL and that park), so that makes the #2s the deciding factor. In his last five starts, Schilling has a 3.03 ERA- making this even more impressive is the fact that two of those starts have been against the Yankees. And both these guys have excellent October track records, with Schilling's (7-2, 2.06 ERA, 109.1 IP, 22BB, 104K) probably being the thing that eventually vaults him into Cooperstown.
3. LAnaheim (John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar)
Neither of these guys have overwhelming peripherals, but they have ERAs of 3.25 and 3.18, respectively. Not to say they're not excellent pitchers, but part of this is because their home park has a park factor of 96, which means it gives a pretty significant advantage to pitchers (Petco, for comparison, has a PF of 94). Regardless, whichever of these guys is their #2 (Escobar, I guess) is the second best #2 starter in the postseason, behind Carmona.
4. San Diego (Jake Peavy, Chris Young) Peavy, who is going to win the NL Cy, is obviously fantastic. But don't be fooled by Chris Young's 2.77 ERA. A lot of that is caused by his home park (the size of which allows him to get by with a GB% of 29.8%), and luck (his FIP is 3.31). Even considering that, he hasn't been the same in the seven starts since he came back from the DL, going 0-4 with a 5.79 ERA and walking 23 in 37.1 IP. At this point, Maddux might even be a better option- the Padres are only this high because Peavy is that good.
5. NY Yankees (Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte) Let me start by saying there's a huge drop off after the top four. For the first half of the year Pettitte was really getting by with smoke and mirrors (3.24 ERA despite only 56K in 105.2 IP). He's been much better recently, with an 80:30 K:BB ratio over his last 91 innings. And if you're looking for playoff experience, he has plenty of it. It's insane that Wang has been mentioned in some Cy Young discussions, but he's solid, with a 61.5% GB rate in his career. 6. Arizona (Brandon Webb, Doug Davis)
Since the streak ended, Webb has come back to earth, going 3-2 with a 4.93 ERA. But that was bound to happen; he's still one of the best pitchers in the NL. Doug Davis has been a solid #2, although 94 walks in 183 IP is cause for concern. 7. Chicago Cubs (Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly)
To the surprise of nobody, Zambrano wasn't very good today on three days rest. I really don't get doing that in September- it didn't make sense with Peavy either. Anyway, this is another solid but unspectacular combination. Zambrano has been a real disappointment this year, with his K rate dropping after it had increased each year since '03. He may be showing the after effects of pitching 861 innings in his age 22-25 seasons. He has also thrown 120+ pitches 36 times in his young career, which is somewhat worrisome. Ted Lilly has made his contract not look insane, having a very solid year because of a career high 3.0 K/BB ratio.
8. NY Mets (Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez)
Who knows. 6IP, 7H, 0BB, 9K is pretty damn promising though. I really don't care about the Mets, but I"ll be rooting for Pedro from here on out. I'm actually much more excited about Pedro than Glavine and his miserable 82:60 K:BB ratio. An impossible rotation to predict.
9. Milwaukee (Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan)
Sheets is wonderful, but he's hurt again. A 1-2 of Suppan and David Bush actually wouldn't be the end of the world, as Bush would be good (124K, only 41 BB in 167 IP) if he didn't give up so many HRs (24, or 1.3/9IP). Still, it's not exactly a playoff caliber combination. (Edit: Fastness & Hyatt (simultaneously!) point out that Yovani Gallardo should be included in this discussion- if Sheets is hurt, the Brewers' 1-2 figures to be Gallardo and Suppan. I'm keeping them at 9, but that does improve things.)
10. Philadelphia (Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer)
Hamels wasn't terribly impressive (3IP, 5H, 3ER, 2K) in his return today, and they need him at the front of this rotation. Because after that it's Moyer and Kyle Kendrick (who has managed only 41 Ks in 109 IP, although he doesn't walk anybody either). But man, can this team score (5.55 R/G). And if the Mets never win again, they don't even have to play particularly well to advance.
(I had the Dodgers in here before they lost twice on Tuesday. They were fifth.)
I have spent far too much time over the last few months trying to figure out who’s going to win the NL MVP. I’ve written about it plenty on this site, even conducted voting over at EC, and (hopefully) will have an article related to this topic that will run at The Hardball Times in the near future.
That being said, I think I’ve figured it out.
The thing about this race that makes it so difficult to handicap is that every player has significant flaws. Let’s go down the NL OPS leaders and see why each player isn’t going to win MVP.
1. Barry Bonds, 1.058 This is an article in itself but I’ll just say terrible team, bad fielder, hasn’t played enough games, and most people probably don’t realize how valuable he continues to be.
T-2. Chipper Jones, .992 Missed 20 games in May/June which contributes to weak counting stats (22 HR, 79 BI), excels in areas that aren’t fully appreciated by voters (67 walks, 35 doubles), probably won’t make playoffs.
T-2. Chase Utley, .992 Maybe the best all-around player in the NL, but missed almost the entire month of August; outstanding in areas ignored by voters (42 doubles, great defensively).
4. Prince Fielder, .986 Below average defense at a power position, team (although in the race) is painfully mediocre, has been the second best hitter on his team since this happened.
5. Miguel Cabrera, .980 On a bad team that nobody pays attention to, not good defensively, more publicity about weight than hitting prowess.
6. Albert Pujols, .975 Has a shot if the Cardinals sneak into playoffs, but if he didn’t win last year, how would he this year?
7. Matt Holliday, .973 A hitter in Coors would need more dominant numbers to win, team is unlikely to make the playoffs.
8. Ryan Howard, .958 *Fourth* highest VORP on team (Utley, Rollins, Rowand), only hitting .272, bad defensively, team may not make playoffs.
9. Hanley Ramirez, .951 Same reasons as #5 (except for the weight issues).
10. David Wright, .946 David Wright has no flaws.
After going 3/5 with a 2-R HR on Monday, Wright is hitting .320 with 26 homers, 91 RBIs, 30 stolen bases, 80 walks, and 35 doubles. He also is fantastic defensively, and his team has a comfortable lead in their division.
He’s first in the NL in Win Shares, and if you included fielding stats in VORP, he’d be leading in that also.
So why the minimal hype? Well, I think it’s because Wright isn’t in the top five in the NL in BA, HR, RBI, SB. However, he’s in the top 10 in each of those categories.
So here I was, convinced that Wright both deserved to win the MVP and had a good chance of winning it. There is only one problem with this: Jake Peavy.
Through his first 20 starts, Peavy was having a very good season- 9-5, 2.47 ERA, 136 Ks in 131 IP. His last eight starts though? 7-0, 1.17 ERA, 53.2 IP, 28 H(!), 17 BB, 70 K. The league has a .150/.223/.251 line against him over that time. He’s pretty much got the Cy Young locked up.
But what about the MVP? Peavy is destroying Wright in WPA (4.82-3.58 through Sunday), but that doesn’t take Wright’s fielding into consideration. VORP is closer (70.4-65.0), and Wright would be ahead of Peavy in that category after you added in fielding.
At this point, I think Wright has to be considered the leader. But the Padres have 25 games left, so that’s five more starts for Peavy. If he pitches as well in those five starts as he has in his last eight, he’d end up with 20 wins, an ERA of right around 2.00, and 250 Ks. I don’t care how big Petco is, that deserves some serious consideration. Although if Pedro didn’t win in 1999 (I’m only typing this because it’s fun: 23-4, 2.07 ERA, 213 IP, 313K, 0.92 WHIP, in a year where the league ERA was 5.07), I don’t know how a pitcher could.
Why the "NL West Edition"? Because every single good line this week involves the NL West. Here we go.
World Series Futures
At both SportsBetting and Sports Interaction, the Padres are 18:1 to win the World Series. This made sense a week ago, when they had a 41% chance of making the playoffs. It does not make sense this week, as they are up to 71%.
Average return on investment: 59%
SportsBetting also has the Dodgers at 40:1, while they best odds they have at any other site are 25:1. Again, eight days ago, when the Dodgers were at 16%, this was a reasonable line, but today, with them up to 29% after having won 6 of 8, it is not.
Average return on investment: 54%
Odds to Win: Division
This makes no sense. At SportsBetting, the Padres are 8:5 to win the NL West. That means they would have to have a 39% chance of winning to make this a worthwhile bet. Conveniently, they are around 53%.
Average return on investment: 36%
Odds to Win: Wild Card
As I noted a few days ago at Epic Carnival, the Wild Card odds at SportsBetting continue to be somewhat insane. The Diamondbacks, who now lead the Wild Card race, have higher odds than Atlanta, LA, SD, Philly, and Colorado: Arizona is 9:1. They have a 22% chance of winning the WC; this is pretty easily the best line there is right now.
Average return on investment: 120%
NL Cy Young Odds
Look here. Jake Peavy is 15-5 with a 2.18 ERA and 197 strikeouts on a first place team. There is very little doubt in my mind that he is going to win this award. This number is pretty much pulled out of nowhere, but I'm going to go with 80%.
His 3:2 odds dictate a 40% chance of winning the award.
Average return on investment: 100%
UPDATE: (Sorry, forgot to include this originally, it even follows the theme.)
Possible 2007 World Series Matchups
Most of these lines are terrible, but both the Indians and Padres are (I think) undervalued by SportsBetting. They have the Indians and Padres playing each other on the WS at 45:1. I have it at about 30:1.
Here are the current Cy Young Leaders, according to the Neyer/James Cy Young Predictor (I don't know why, but for all the NL pitchers ESPN is using 3 for their "victory bonus"; I am not, thus the discrepancy in the standings).
Penny previously had a huge lead, but the Dodgers have lost his last two starts by scores of 3-1 and 3-0. Not only has Peavy pitched brilliantly in his last two outings (14 IP, 7H, 1R, 3 BB, 18 K), the Padres have actually scored some runs for him, winning those two games by scores of 9-4 and 11-0. Because of this Penny's lead has decreased from 14.4 to 5.2.
After losing to the Braves on June 1, Carlos Zambrano was 5-5 with a 5.62 ERA. In 12 starts since, Zambrano has gone 9-2 with a 1.43 ERA, with 82 strikeouts in 81.2 innings. That, coupled with the Cubs' 36-22 record over that stretch, has valuted Zambrano to third the standings.
Last time I looked at this, Brandon Webb wasn't even on the radar. That has certainly changed, as Webb hasn't allowed a run in 23 innings over his last three starts, improving from 8-8, 3.38 to 11-8, 2.92. He still has some work to do, but at least he's in the conversation now. Webb's 2.92 ERA is the lowest it's been since 2003 (2.84). He's had an interesting season, as he's seen both his K/9 and BB/9 increase by about 1.0.
Tim Hudson has also been fantastic recently going 4-0, 0.98 over his last five starts, allowing him to move all the way up to fourth in the current standings.
Using each pitcher's current statistics, their BP Translated ERA, and how many runs their team has averaged per game, I projected the final standings (I'm assuming Chris Young will make 9 more starts this year, although it is impossible to know when he will come of the DL):
Looking at this projection, it looks like Peavy and Penny will separate themselves from the pack. It is impossible to end up with a fraction in the VB column; either you make the playoffs and get 12, or you fall short and get 0. So by the end of the season, the clear advantage will go to Peavy if the Padres make the playoffs, or Penny if the Dodgers get in; if neither or both of them get in, then it will pretty much be a toss up.
If Zambrano or Hudson continue to pitch as well as they have been recently, either of them could make this a three horse race; they could also get an extra boost if the Cubs or Braves make the playoffs.
After breaking down the AL Cy Young race a couple differentways over the last two days, I thought I'd look at the NL race.
Through the eyes of the Neyer/James Cy Young Predictor, here are the current Cy Young standings (through games of 7/16):
This seems about right- I think if the voting was held today, Penny would almost definitely win.
However, as the voting isn't held for two and a half more months, I don't think this is the best way to predict who will win the award- we need to take into account how we think each pitcher will perform the rest of the year.
To do this, I used three different factors- PECOTA, their second half performance over the past three years, and their first half performance this year. In general, the weights of these were 50%, 25%, and 25%, respectively. However, for Young, Maine, and Hamels, I didn't use the post-ASB over the last three years numbers. I used only PECOTA and their first half performance, weighting the two at 67% and 33%, respectively.
Using this system, and taking into consideration how many starts each pitcher is likely to make the rest of the way, here is how I see things going the rest of the way:
Penny's weak second half showings really hurt him here, and Peavy also has significantly better PECOTA projections. So from here on out, it's clear that you would want Peavy on your team. I like this model for the three young pitchers (Young, Maine, Hamels) because it assumes that their first half ERAs will regress about half way back to their PECOTA ERAs.
Now, combining these pitchers' current statistics with this table, we can predict their final stats. The last column here is their Cy Young Predictor points.
So my projection thinks Peavy can make up the ground on Penny (and then some), and that nobody else in the field will really challenge them. I think a lot of this race will depend on how the NL West race shakes out- if these pitchers end up with slightly more comparable K and ERA numbers than shown here, and only one of their two teams makes the playoffs, there's probably a good chance that that player will end up with the hardware.
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