Playoffs 2008: LCS Previews

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Series line: LAD -105, PHI -105
Game 1: LAD (D. Lowe) +123 @ PHI (C. Hamels) -131

The unpredictability of a short series applies both to the winner and the length; although both these series appear to be evenly matched, there's about a 61% chance that one won't even reach a sixth game. It seems like we've had some bad fortune with that over the last few years; maybe we'll get lucky and both of these will go down to the wire.

For the Dodgers, it's a good thing that we're down to a format that has so many off days between games, because the depth of their bullpen, which was a strength during the year, is beginning to become a concern. It looks like Saito may not even be on the roster, and he's been awful since returning in mid-September anyway. Kuo may be able to pitch, but who knows how effective he'll be if he returns. Even through all this, they do still have Broxton, Wade, and Beimel back there, and that should suffice, especially in the games started by Lowe and Billingsley.

The idea that the Dodgers are significantly better than their record (both W-L and Pythag) has been repeated ad nauseam over the past few weeks. For once, the popular opinion is correct. LA's season can pretty much be divided into three parts. For the first 32 games, they had a red hot Rafael Furcal, and hit .283/.361/.416 as a team. When he went down, their offense struggled mightily before the addition of Ramirez, with a .244/.303/.359 line over 76 games. Things then turned around when Manny came aboard, and they hit .281/.355/.443 in the last 54 games of the regular season; the last four included Furcal, although he contributed an OPS of just .522.

Because of the ridiculous off day after Game 5, all four remaining teams have a decision to make regarding their G4 starter; bringing your ace back on short rest would allow him to be on full rest for G7. The Phillies have been pretty clear that they'll go with Blanton; that's easy to say now, but we'll see what actually happens if they're down 2-1 or 3-0.

The Dodgers haven't even narrowed it down to two, as their fourth starter could be either Maddux or Kershaw. It probably should be the 20-year old Kershaw, who has been excellent in his second stint in the majors, with a 67:28 K:BB ratio in 69 innings since mid-July. You'd think Maddux and his veteranness would win out on a team managed by Joe Torre, but he seems to like having the 42-year old in the bullpen. Regardless, they seem like the most likely team to bring their #1 back on short rest. You always read that sinkerballers are better on short rest than other pitchers; has anyone researched that idea? That's not a rhetorical question.

(I couldn't work it into this post, but this is a fantastic picture.)

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Series line: BOS -123, TB +113
Game 1: BOS (D. Matsuzaka) +102 @ TB (J. Shields) -110

The series line opened at BOS -145 at Pinnacle, but has since come down to something much more reasonable. The Game 1 line, however, continues to be totally absurd. Matsuzaka is 18-2. Okay. We get it. His walk rate is three times as high as Shields'.

I'm still not convinced throwing Matsuzaka in G2 is a good idea. Since you have the advantage of having "all hands on deck" in Game 7, wouldn't it be advantageous to have Matsuzaka throwing in that one, since he averaged just 5.8 IP per start this season? It seems like having Lester pitch there is a poor use of resources, since he has gone at least seven innings in 16 of his last 21 starts.

The Red Sox had a significant platoon split during the regular season, with an .849 OPS against lefties, which was 57 point higher than their OPS vs. RHP. That should be a little less pronounced now, with the lefty Kotsay taking Lowell's spot in the lineup. The Rays have the opposite split, as their OPS was 52 points higher against righties, not surprising since three of their regulars (Pena, Iwamura, and Crawford) bat exclusively from the left side. If the Red Sox can manage a split in Tampa they'll be in good shape, with the lefty Lester pitching at home in G3. Although that's what I said about the ALDS, and we saw how that worked out.

The Red Sox have the famous closer (who hasn't allowed a run in 19.2 postseason innings), but the Rays had the superior bullpen this season, with a 3.55 ERA. David Price was on the ALDS roster, but never pitched; Tampa is now considering putting Percival on the roster for this series. I really hope they don't; he's been horrendous for months now, and there's really no reason to give Joe Maddon the opportunity to put him in in a high leverage spot. Price may not be a vital component, as the third lefty in a deep bullpen, but I think I'd rather have an empty roster spot than Percival at this point.

Since Lester is schedule to start Games 3 and 7, the Red Sox will almost certainly start Wakefield in Game 4. The whole benefit of bringing the G1 starter back on short rest is that he can pitch G7, but Matsuzaka obviously wouldn't bump Lester from the deciding game. The Rays have a more difficult decision to make, as the idea of throwing Matt Garza in the deciding game against Lester is not appealing. Shields has never pitched on short rest; that decision will come down to how comfortable they are with rolling the dice a bit there, and also the state of the series; if they're up, they'll almost certainly play it safe with Sonnanstine.

Playoffs 2008: Brewers-Phillies NLDS Preview

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Series line: MIL +164, PHI -174
Game 1: MIL (Gallardo) +185 @ PHI (Hamels) -201

Here is the best reason I've found to take the Brewers:

Everybody picking the Phillies isn't really all that surprising. The general consensus is that the Brewers are just happy to be here, their rotation is out of sorts, their bullpen sucks, and Ryan Howard is going to hit a home run in every other at-bat. It's pretty absurd that only Kurkjian has Milwaukee pushing it to a 5th game, but maybe the popular opinion is even more dramatic than I had realized.

I'm having a hard time seeing how it's so clear cut. Game 1 certainly isn't looking good; it's not Gallardo (who was excellent in his first start back, striking out seven in four innings) that's the problem, but the fact that he's unlikely to go more than five innings, which means an extended appearance from the Brewers' bullpen. Against Cole Hamels and Philadelphia's offense, at Citizens Bank Park, that's going to be a problem.

The thing is, that's only one game. On Thursday, it'll be Sabathia against Myers. I'm certainly not one to obsess over recent results, but that one certainly looks good from Milwaukee from that standpoint--Sabathia has had one of the greatest second half runs you'll ever see, Myers has allowed 16 runs over 8.1 innings over his last two starts. With all the non-SP factors leaning towards Philly, they'll probably still be favorites, but just barely. Because of the recent history of the two pitchers, I think there might end up being some value in the Phillies' G2 line, but it's definitely a close call.

When the series moves to Milwaukee, there's even more uncertainty. Moyer should have a tough time against a Brewers team that sports an .806 OPS against lefties (.738 vs. RHP). Dave Bush is nothing more than average (if that), but home-field should give the Brewers a slight edge in that one. The potential matchup of Blanton vs. Suppan favors the Phillies--Blanton isn't great, but Suppan is awful--so that one's probably pretty close to a coin flip.

Game 5 back in Philly has the potential to be a classic matchup, with Sabathia (who would finally be on full rest) squaring off against Hamels. So what we're essentially left with is one mismatch, and four games that are pretty even. Based on the predicted lines, the Phillies probably take it about 57% of the time, which would imply a line of -130/+130.

To lean on Sal Baxamusa's work again, the Phillies have the clear edge offensively, averaging 5.08 R/G to Milwaukee's 4.83. However, two factors could increase that Brewers number. The first is that they'll be facing lefties in Games 1, 3, and possibly five. As previously noted, Milwaukee has a large L/R split; their .757 overall team OPS jumps to .806 against lefties. The second is that those numbers assume an "average pitcher" in the nine hole, and CC Sabathia is a better hitter than most SPs.

Milwaukee's bullpen ERA is surprisingly low, at 3.89. Torres' K:BB ratio isn't very impressive, but he gets enough GBs that he's only given up 6 HRs in 80 innings, even with an average HR/FB ratio. Brian Shouse is a nice weapon too have; lefties have just a .486 OPS against him this year (.589 career). Since returning on July 3 after missing six weeks, Gagne has at least been better, with a 20:6 K:BB ratio, although he does still give up way too many homers (six in 27 innings since returning, 11 in 46.3 innings on the year). Mota gets a lot of Ks, but his walk rate has spike this year; he's pretty mediocre.

With that being said, the bullpens aren't even close; Philadelphia's had a 3.22 ERA on the year. Despite issuing a few too many walks, Lidge had an absolutely brilliant season, with 92 strikeouts, and just two homers allowed, in 69.1 innings. Romero has, as usual, been killer against lefties, holding them to a meager .102/.193/.153 line (.346 OPS in '08; .591 career). His right-handed counterpart is Ryan Madson, who doesn't have nearly a large a platoon split, but does have a 3.05 ERA (3.33 FIP) in 82.2 innings. If they need to get a couple extra innings out of the pen, they have Durbin, Condrey, and Eyre; obviously their bullpen is a lot stronger than Milwaukee's, no matter how you look at it.

Infield defense definitely favors Philadelphia; any team that has Chase Utley, and his +/- rating of +47 runs, at second is going to be in good shape. Rollins and Feliz are above average as well, while Howard is slightly below. The biggest discrepancy between the two teams is on the right side of the infield, where Fielder and Weeks/Durham struggle. Other than those two though, Milwaukee is in good shape, with Hardy at SS and Cameron in CF both being plus defenders. The Brewers have the advantage in outfield defense, mostly because they don't have anyone holding them down like Burrell (-20).

The fact that the Phillies have the better lineup, better bullpen, and better overall defense, combined with the huge game one line, has scared me off the Brewers' series line a bit. But I still think there's some value there, as most people have given them up for dead, despite games 2-5 being pretty even matchups.

LA Teams Early Favorites for A-Rod

A couple days ago Bodog posted lines on "What team will Alex Rodriguez be playing for on Opening Day '08?" I was going to dedicate a post to these, but Leitch beat me to it. Over at BP, Nate Silver had an Unfiltered post ranking all 30 teams' chances of landing A-Rod. The Bodog odds aren't even up anymore, but I thought it would be interesting to compare these two lists.


So it seems like the Angels and Dodgers are clearly the frontrunners. But after that? It's pretty unclear. The is a huge disconnect between what Bodog and Silver think about the Cubs' and Yankees' chances. The Yankees' odds are always wrong, but what about Chicago? Here's Silver's reasoning:

"The sale of the club is likely to take longer than expected, as there are rumors that the Tribune’s deal with Sam Zell is in question, and as they look for non-Mark Cuban suitors to compete with John Canning’s bid. They’d also have to be willing to commit to A-Rod at shortstop for at least several seasons because of Aramis Ramirez’ contract. I’d be shocked if he signs here."

Seems reasonable enough to me. The other big difference is the Giants:

"San Francisco fans are notoriously tolerant, they could use any offensive help they can get, and Barry Bonds’ departure leaves some cash in their wallets. But this team is probably not going to the playoffs with or without A-Rod, so this is the fallback alternative if the contending clubs don’t bite."

Trying to combine the relevant information from these two lists, here's mine:

1. LAA
2. LAD (Torre helps, I guess)
3. PHI (think about that infield)
4. SFG (what's the point?)
5. DET (I really hope not)
6. CHW (Kenny Williams is an unpredictable dude)
7. NYM (I can't see it, but this is what I'm rooting for)
8. HOU (puts them in contention in that division)
9. STL
10. CHC

Sorry, two A-Rod posts in a row. Next week I'm gonna try to look at some of the *other* FAs, and their likely destinations. That, or maybe just write 1500 words on how much I hate Marketing. We shall see.

Ryan Howard, Strikeout King?

Apparently, Ryan Howard strikes out a lot. While I knew this was generally true, I hadn't realized that Howard is on a record pace until I came across this article.

After not striking out tonight, Ryan Howard has 151 Ks through 127 Phillies games, putting him on pace for 193. The record is held by Adam Dunn, with 195 in 2004.

While Howard does look like he'll challenge the record, he isn't exactly in uncharted territory- here are the 10 guys who have struck out the most through 127 team games.


The fairly unique thing about this record that makes it different from others is the fact that it's bad. People aren't interested in owning it, and they generally take somewhat drastic measures to avoid doing so. Here are a few examples.

Preston Wilson, 2000 (Marlins)

Through 127 games, Wilson was on pace for a very impressive 205 Ks. He couldn't quite keep that up, but did have 187 with one game left. At the time, the record was 189, set by Bobby Bonds in 1970. As the last game meant nothing for the Marlins, who finished 15.5 games behind the Braves, Wilson was benched for game #162, ensuring that he wouldn't break the record.

Jose Hernandez, 2002 (Brewers)

Hernandez is the best example of a guy who would have set the record if his team didn't manipulate the situation. Through 127 games he was on pace for 202 Ks. He kept up this pace, as he had 188 through 151 games, still on pace for 202. Since the Brewers were awful in '02 (they lost 106 games), they had the option of benching him for their last 11 games. They benched him for four games, then actually let him play all three games in a series against the Astros, in which he somehow didn't strike out, and then didn't play him in the season's final two games.

Rob Deer, 1991 (Tigers)

Through 140 games, Deer had 166 Ks, a pace of 192. The Tigers were 5.5 games behind the Blue Jays at that point, and Deer played in only 7 of their last 22, finishing at 175.

Finally, in 2004, Adam Dunn broke the record. Dunn was at 188 with four games to go, and the Reds were 29 games behind the Cardinals. But he didn't care, as he struck out three times in the next game to surpass Bonds' record, finishing at 195, the current mark.

So what's in store for Howard? With their loss Friday, the Phillies fell three games back of the Padres for the NL Wild Card lead. If they're in the race until the end, the Phillies will quite obviously play Howard. But what if he has 192 Ks going into the last weekend of the season, and the Phillies have been eliminated? I would have to guess that Howard would sit the last couple games of the season, as that is what has happened with everybody in that position except Adam Dunn, who really doesn't come across as the kind of guy who is bothered by the fact he strikes out a lot.

Pictures taken from CNNSI (2), and the Reds website. All stats taken from Baseball Reference.