Futures Watch: Week 19

Tampa Bay, 8:1 (BetUS)
+120 to win the AL East (BetUS)
Current Record: 68-45
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 91.8%

The Rays have been fantastic since the break, winning 13 of 19 and seven of their last eight. Most of that success has come at home, but it also includes a 4-3 road trip. They're not yet back to where they were on July 8 (96.5%), but they've really improved their chances over the last three weeks.

Despite the hot streak, they do have some issues at the moment. Crawford has a sore left hamstring, and hasn't played since Sunday. Bartlett hasn't played the field since Sunday (he did DH yesterday; gotta get that .602 OPS into the lineup), when he was hit on his index finger while trying to bunt. Losing Jason Bartlett for a few days may not seem like a big deal, but considering that he has been replaced by Willy Aybar and Ben Zobrist, well, it is. Finally, B.J. Upton decided not to run out a ground ball on Tuesday, and Maddon benched him yesterday as punishment. Bartlett and Upton should be back to their normal roles tonight, while Crawford's status is unclear.

Tampa now heads out on a ten-game road trip, where they'll face Seattle, Oakland, and Texas. They'll do so with the services of reliever Chad Bradford, who they claimed off waivers and have acquired from Baltimore. Bradford has registered very few strikeouts this year (2.9 K/9), but his K rate has been much higher in the past and he gets a ton of ground balls (68.7% this year, 64.2% career), and doesn't walk anybody (1.6 BB/9 this year, 2.4 BB/9 career).

This Week's Links (7/28-8/1)

Yesterday was not a good day for MLB.com.

Yet another reason to root for the Rays.

Ibanez was very close to going to Toronto.

Ted Lilly, master of the inside change-up.

Bannister is encouraged by his xFIP.

The 10 worst deadline deals of the last 10 years.

Futures Watch: Week 18

Tampa Bay, 10:1 (Carib)
+275 to win the AL East (Carib)
Current Record: 62-44
PECOTA: 80.8%

Tampa won this afternoon--although it wasn't easy--to finish up a solid 4-3 road trip. I actually think there's more value in betting on them to win the division than there has been in awhile. While everybody has been focusing on the Manny saga, Boston has dropped five of six at home, allowing the Rays to open up a three game lead.

The way Tampa's schedule sets up down the stretch is interesting. They don't play NYY or BOS in August, but I wouldn't say they have an easy schedule; they have a nine game west coast trip (although they don't have to go to LA), a weekend series @CHW, and host the Tigers, Indians, Angels, Blue Jays and Orioles.

It gets a little ridiculous in September. Their first five series of the month are: vsNYY, @TOR, @BOS, @NYY, vsBOS. That's an insane stretch, especially those middle three. Hopefully the Rays can maintain their cushion through August, because they're going to need it.

(Also, it now looks like the Rays are pursuing Dunn as a Plan B if they don't end up getting Bay. This is good news. Much more on this in Thursday's live-blog.)

Cubs, -125 to win the NL Central (Carib)
Current Record: 63-44
PECOTA: 93.3%

The Cubs won again today, and have opened up a four game lead on the Brewers.

I really don't know why they leave these division odds up, without updating them, all week. The Cubs are the best team in the league and have a four game lead in their division. They have better than a 56% chance of winning the division. This isn't rocket science.

Futures Watch: Week 17

Oakland, 100:1 (VIP, Matchbook)
Current Record: 52-48
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 18.4%
Tampa Bay, 11.5:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 58-41
PECOTA: 78.6%

Tampa beat Oakland today, 4-3.

I think it's time to stop including Oakland every week. PECOTA still thinks they have a shot, but that's not particularly meaningful at this point. Not only have they traded away 2/5 of their rotation, but PECOTA was seemingly overrating their chances to begin with. The A's are available at 18-1 to win the division at Matchbook right now, and nobody is biting.

That's not to say that PECOTA was wrong about Oakland, or that their preseason odds (17-1 to win the division, at BetUS at least) weren't worth betting on. Their 4.5 game lead on the Angels in the Adjusted Standings indicates that things simply haven't broken their way; they could very easily be a few games up in the division, rather than 10 out. And if that were true, it's likely that Harden and Blanton would still be in their rotation right now. Things just didn't quite work out. It happens.

Milwaukee, +300 to win the NL Central (Carib)
+250 to win the NL Central (BetUS, Sportsbook)

These are just ridiculous. The Brewers are -180 to not win the division at Matchbook right now. They're one game back of the Cubs (assuming Chicago doesn't blow their current 10-3 lead against Arizona). Milwaukee's chances of winning the division are probably closer to 50-50 than 1 in 4.

How this discrepancy came to be is pretty obvious. A week ago, Milwaukee was five out, and in third place. They've since won six in a row, including three against the Cardinals (they've actually won seven straight overall, but they started the streak before the ASB). They're now three games ahead of an inferior St. Louis team in the loss column, with Sheets going against Wellemeyer on Thursday night.

Futures Watch: Week 15

Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
7:1 to win the AL West (VIP)
Current Record: 49-42
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 39.6%
Tampa Bay, 9:1 (BetUS)
Current Record: 55-35
PECOTA: 91.7%

I do not think Billy Beane had this blog in mind when making the Rich Harden trade. I'm not sure what I ever did to him; I've read his book at least twice.

After a shocking double by Willie Bloomquist broke the streak and extended Seattle's lead to 2-0, Oakland staged a rousing comeback to win 3-2 in 11. They have a huge series with the Angles this weekend; if they sweep, there's certainly value in their division line, a probably even if they take two of three.

The Rays have hit a bit of a rough stretch, losing three in a row after their seven-game win streak. They actually have a pretty easy schedule coming up; they don't play the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, or Angels until LA comes into town on August 18.

Also, Evan Longoria is an All-Star. But yeah, clearly they were insane to give a big contract to a guy who had only played a few major league games. What a stupid move that was.

NY Mets, 20:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 47-44
PECOTA: 56.7%

The Mets won their sixth in a row today, moving to four games above .500. Things were looking pretty bleak after they lost to Philadelphia last Friday, but they ended up taking three of four in that series, and ten sweeping the Giants. They have Colorado at home before the break, then go to Cincinnati before hosting the Phillies. Only 1.5 games out at the moment, the Mets could very realistically be in first place after that next series against Philadelphia.

This Week's Links (6/30-7/4)

A day early this week, since I can't imagine this site will be getting a whole lot of traffic tomorrow.

How good are the Angels? Sean Smith knows.

The streak lives! (See here for reference.)

The Schilling/Jack Morris comparisons are awesome.

Buster Olney, reporter? Fine. Buster Olney, analyst? No.

Something about some team that's doing well, or something.

A logo conspiracy? I think so.

A proposal (#17) to add a new wing to the Hall of Fame titled, "What The Hell, They Were Better Than Jim Rice".

Futures Watch: Week 14

This week:

Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 45-38
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 49.6%
Tampa Bay, 12:1 (BetUS)
+220 to win the AL East (VIP)
Current Record: 51-32
PECOTA: 92.1%

The statistics above do not reflect today's events.

Does this mean I'm going to have to do series previews every week? I hope not.

The home team is now 12-0 in this year's Rays-Red Sox games. That is a nice little stat which will inevitably get blown out of proportion when they meet again in September. Some even thought it was important enough to make Boston a "contrarian" pick on Wednesday. They were wrong.

By the way, I would imagine it's quite rare to get a team that's five up in the loss column at +220 to win the division. Although if you haven't gotten on board by now, you're probably not in agreement with PECOTA's forecast anyway.

They Rays now have an off day before hosting the Royals for four; the Red Sox are heading to New York for a four game series beginning on Thursday. So that presents another opportunity for the Rays to increase their current 3.85 game lead.

This week's results in Anaheim were not nearly as encouraging, but that probably shouldn't come as much of a surprise, given the location. If the A's can survive four games this weekend in Chicago, they have a chance to make up some ground next week, as they host Seattle and Los Angeles before the break.

San Francisco, 300:1 (5Dimes)
Current record: 37-47
PECOTA: 4.6%

This isn't how it was supposed to be. The Giants' offense was supposed to score three runs a game, and Lincecum and Cain were going to combine for a 2.75 ERA, and an 11-25 W-L record.

Instead, they're "only" third to last in the NL in both scoring and OPS+. With the exception of shortstop, they haven't suffered any major injuries, and everyone has performed at or above expectations. They're on pace to beat their PECOTA projection of 634 RS by only 20 runs, but that's with scoring down almost 7% across the board in the NL.

The real winners in this--assuming they don't win the division, which would really just be embarrassing for everyone involved--may be Lincecum. He's been as good as advertised, with a 2.38 ERA and 9.4 K/9. Somewhat shockingly, he's gotten an above average amount of run support, at 5.1 R/G. That has allowed him to start 9-1, and he's currently a close third in Cy Young Predictor. It's going to be an uphill climb, but could end up being an intriguing storyline in the second half.

Oh, and unless you really believe the playoffs are a crapshoot, I wouldn't bet on them just yet. Although their rotation would set up quite nicely in October. I must admit, I hadn't thought about that possibility until just now.

Futures Watch: Week 13

This week:

Oakland, 50:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 42-34
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 52.5%
Tampa Bay, 16.5:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 45-31
PECOTA: 76.8%

After all this, you can still get pretty decent prices on these two teams. The Rays are +400 to win the East at Sportsbook, and PECOTA loves that Oakland WS line.

The PECOTA percentages for the AL West are very strange. Even with the Angels having a five game led, the division is almost a toss-up, with the A's having a 45.8% chance of winning it. This is caused by the Angels having outplayed their third-order record by 8.3 games. The playoff odds probably underrate the Angels somewhat--Lackey has been great since returning--but it's unclear how much.

Kansas City, 100:1 to win the AL Central (Sportsbook, BetUS)
Current Record: 35-43
PECOTA: 1.2%

On June 15, the Royals were 26-42, and had a 0.15% chance of winning the division. Since then (including tonight) they've won 10 of 11, and probably increased their division percentage by a factor of 10.

Tonight, they passed the Indians. As I write this, they're only 1.5 games behind Detroit. And the White Sox and Twins aren't exactly juggernauts. It's obviously unlikely, but 100:1 odds for a team that's only 7.5 games out are pretty hard to pass up.

Who's In First?

This is kind of weird, isn't it? The Red Sox are a game up, but the Rays have one fewer loss.

People generally contend that the loss column is what matters, since you "can't get those back". The loss column is more important, but that's not why. The loss column is actually only more important because both teams are over .500.

If you think about it, and both teams were 15 games over-Red Sox 45-30, Rays 44-29, then it makes sense that the Rays would be ahead, since it's more likely that they'll go 2-0 in their two additional games than 0-2 (since they're over .500). If both teams were under .500, then the team that had played more games would be ahead, since the other team is more likely to go 0-2 than 2-0.

If you project the Rays' .587 W% out to 79 games, they're 46.4-32.6. So, rather than thinking of them as a game back in the standings or a game up in the loss column, we should think of them as being 0.6 games back. Whatever that means.

This Week's Links (6/16-6/20)

I don't even want to talk about what happened yesterday. Cruel timing.

Even Wall Street was watching Tiger on Monday.

Does it make sense to take third when down multiple runs in the 9th?

Everybody's talking about Seattle's GM search--USS Mariner, Beyond the Box Score, and Stark.

"Kaz: Brings the heat"

This is the height of stupidity:


I am sick of linking to everything Posnanski writes, but: on Ricciardi, Kobe vs. Jordan, and Tiger.

Fun with screen grabs.

What is Jerry Manuel thinking when he says this?

Futures Watch: Week 12

This week:

Oakland, 35:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 39-31
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 71.3%
Tampa Bay, 16.5:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 41-29
PECOTA: 70.2%

The Rays beat the Cubs tonight. As I write this, the A's are down 8-0 in Arizona.

I tried to come up with a pretty graph that shows the dramatic effect home-field has had on the AL East race. I failed, but am posting it anyway. The following graph is how many games each team is over .500 on each day of the season. The red line is Boston; the thicker parts are home games, the thin parts are road games. The blue line is, obviously, the Rays.

As you can see, every time the Rays have taken the lead, it's been when they're at home and Boston is on the road. And all Boston's big surges have been at home. So there you have it.

The Rays are on pace to allow 671 runs, which would be 273 fewer runs than last year.

Milwaukee, 75:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 37-33
PECOTA: 29.4%

Propelled by Russ Branyan's 9th HR in 59 ABs, the Brewers won 5-4 tonight.

I don't really understand what VIP has against Milwaukee, it's something. The best I see on them anywhere else is 40:1 at Sportsbook. They have better than a 1 in 76 chance of winning the World Series. This seems pretty obvious.

Seattle, 1000:1 (VIP)
250:1 to win the AL West (VIP)
Current Record: 25-46
PECOTA: 0.007%

Don't bet on these, obviously. I just wanted to take a second to point out that the Mariners are on pace to win 57 games. Steve Phillips predicted they would win 92 games. Steve Phillips is on pace to be off by 35 games in predicting how many games a team would win in a 162 game season. That is extremely hard to do.

Futures Watch: Week 11

Bodog does not have futures up at the moment, so their odds won't be included this week.

Last week:
Milwaukee, 75:1 (VIP)
40:1 to win the NL (VIP)
12:1 to win the NL Central (Sportsbook)

They are now 40:1 to win it all at VIP (45:1 at 5Dimes), and 20:1 to win the pennant. So that went pretty much as expected.

This week:

Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 34-30
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 57.2%
Tampa Bay, 17:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 38-27
PECOTA: 73.9%

A quick note from Davenport about the PECOTA odds:

I did find a bug in this program on June 7; changes which should have been accumulating gradually all season were suddenly introduced all at once. As described below, the Pct3 is supposed to be a combination of ther actual performance to date and the performance expected by PECOTA; due to the error, it was simply stuck on the pre-season PECOTA value.

Both the Rays and A's have excellent third-order records. Also, the Angels' third-order record is awful, at 32-34. So that explains the large changes from last week.

The Rays went 3-6 during their "important stretch", falling just shy of Mr. Wisinski's goal. They've dropped to two games back of Boston, but only one in the loss column. Hopefully they can make up some ground on their nine game homestand against the Marlins, Cubs, and Astros, which begins on Friday.

Chicago White Sox, 15:1 (5Dimes)
White Sox to win the AL Central, +110 (VIP)
Current record: 37-27
PECOTA: 80.2%

The limit on the VIP line is $1000*. They are -190 at BetUS, and -400 at Sportsbook. PECOTA has them at 79.3% to win the division.

In fact, you could take Chicago at +110 at VIP, the Tigers at +750 at BetUS, and the Indians, Royals, and Twins at Sportsbook (+450, +10000, and +600, respectively) and guarantee a profit, as those five lines add up to 92.8%. It is also likely that you will be able to get a good price on the White Sox to not win the division to hedge this with at Matchbook in the near future.

*Please note that VIP has "night limits" which are in effect from midnight EST until around 10am EST.

Futures Watch: Week 10

This week:
Oakland, 35:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 32-27
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 27.7% (-4.8% since last week)
Tampa Bay, 17:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 35-23
PECOTA: 54.9% (+3.4%)

The A's completed a sweep of the Tigers this afternoon, while Tampa's road struggles continued in their loss to the Red Sox.

The Rays placed Percival on the DL, and missed picking first in the draft while in first place by a day. Not much else to report that hasn't already been said; a win on Thursday (Shields v. Lester) sure would be nice.

Milwaukee, 75:1 (VIP)
40:1 to win the NL (VIP)
12:1 to win the NL Central (Sportsbook)
Current record: 31-28
PECOTA: 41.8%

All of these are good, with the pennant odds probably being the best.

Finally, the Brewers show some results. After sweeping the reeling Diamondbacks, they've won six in a row, and nine of 10. They go on the road now, but against Colorado and Houston.

The difference (besides actually playing some home games) has been the pitching--over their last 10 games, they have allowed only 21 runs.

I don't know what else to say. I've written about this team nearly every week. 40:1 is way, way too high.

An Important Stretch

We have reached the breaking point. Bodog think the Rays have a better chance of winning the division than the Yankees. I don't have their preseason odds for these, but my guess would be that the Rays were about +4000, and the Yankees +130. A lot changes in two months.

Three weeks ago, the first place Rays were 100:1 to win the World Series at Sportsbook. Today, they're 10:1. As much as I like to talk about how smart the oddsmakers are, it's worth pointing out that the people making these futures lines aren't necessarily the same ones making the lines for individual games. With the futures lines, sometimes they're just not paying attention.

Not all is well in Tampa though. As I mentioned in this week's Covers article, they've played nearly 60% of their games at home, the highest mark in the AL. They've gone 24-10 in those, which means they're only 11-12 on the road. Appropriately, their next nine are away from home, against Boston, Texas, and the Angels.

It's an extremely important stretch for them. BBTF commenter Jim Wisinski-- a real Rays fan, so the complete opposite of me-- puts it into perspective:

This whole road trip is huge for the team. 9 games, against the teams expected to win the AL East and West as well as going to Texas where visiting teams often have some trouble. I've kept my enthusiasm tempered throughout this season (before the season I was sure that they would be at least .500 but didn't have much of any chance at the playoffs) but them going at least 4-5 in this stretch would be huge and remove any doubts for me about their ability to contend and maybe even be the current favorite for the wild card. Fun stuff.

Fun stuff, indeed. Let's just hope it goes better than the last time they visited Boston.

Related: Broken News: Ortiz, Westbrook [BP Unfiltered]

Photo: Yahoo!

Breaking Down The Wagerline Numbers

I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at some of the baseball betting trends over the first two months of the season. Using data from Wagerline, I went back and collected the line for each game in April and May, as well as the percentage of people that bet on each side.

This first chart is simply the average percentage of the action each team has gotten thus far this season:



The Red Sox have been very popular, while the Giants have not. It's no coincidence that the better teams have higher percentages. Even after considering the reduced payout, people generally prefer to bet on favorites. So far this year, according to Wagerline, the average favorite has received 56.5% of the action. That percentage rises as the line gets higher:

When evaluating how popular each team has been among the betting public, we need to take this into account. To do this, I looked at the data so far this year and figured out the expected percentage for each line. Using this, we can figure out the average percentage we should expect for each team based solely on their average line, and compare it to their actual average percentage. This allows us to isolate the popularity of the team from the public's tendency towards favorites.

Here are the teams that have gotten more action than we'd expect from their lines:

For evaluating individual teams, I think this is a lot more meaningful. As I previously theorized, there is a large gap between the public perception of the Cardinals and their lines. Part of this probably existed prior to the season, but their 19-11 start has a lot to do with it as well. This significantly changed how the public looked at St. Louis, but I doubt it had much of an effect on the lines.

The same is true, but to a lesser extent, with the Marlins. The rest of the teams are just generally very popular.

Here is the other end of the spectrum:

Note the gap between the top two. People really don't like betting on the Giants. Here is the breakdown by starting pitcher:

The books seem to respect Cain nearly as much as Lincecum (this can be seen in the similar "Ex %" columns, which mean that their lines have been comparable), but this clearly isn't true for the general public. Cain's 7-16 record last year probably contributed to this, as did his 0-2, 6.44 ERA start this year.

People have avoided Zito, but that's mostly been caused by the lopsided lines, and San Francisco's general incompetence. His gap will probably increase going forward-- it's been 7.5% over his last three starts-- as he's pretty clearly undervalued at this point.

The rest of this list is filled with generally poor teams, with two exceptions-- the Rays and Brewers. It's no coincidence that these are two teams I've talked about way too much in Futures Watch. Both teams have been undervalued so far this year. For the Rays, it's because of their sudden rise; they've already won more than half as many games as their franchise record. Milwaukee's large difference is probably caused by their slow start, although it may not last, as they've now won six of seven.

Futures Watch: Week 9

This week:
Oakland, 40:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 29-23
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 32.5% (+5.2% since last week)
Tampa Bay, 22:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 31-21
PECOTA: 51.5% (+2.1%)

Tampa won today. Oakland went 5-0 this week, significantly boosting their playoff chances. Interesting to note that PECOTA thinks there's an 81.6% chance that the wild card comes out of the East, so the A's are probably going to have to overtake the Angels to reach the postseason.

The fun is over. The odds for these two teams are not good. I don't see us going back to the days of the Rays being 200:1 to win the pennant any time soon.

Milwaukee, 100:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 25-27
PECOTA: 35.3% (-1.1%)

I'm sick of writing about this team, but this has gotten out of hand. They won today, so they're actually 26-27. VIP also has them at 50:1 to win the NL, which is probably better than their WS odds, since they're likely to be underdogs should they reach the WS.

This is far from the consensus. Their WS odds are between 33:1 (Bodog is awful for these) and 50:1 (Sportsbook) other places. At the beginning of the year, their highest odds were 30:1.

If you go by PECOTA, as you can see above, they're a little better than 1 in 3 to reach the playoffs. If you only look at their performance so far this year, they're about 1 in 10. The truth probably lies somewhere in between, but considering 50:1 to win the pennant is a borderline wager even at 10%, these are very good odds.

One interesting aspect of Milwaukee's season so far is that is that they've played 31 road games, but only 22 home games. Obviously, this is something that evens out over the course of the year. The Brewers have gotten off to a rough start, but their schedule if favorable the rest of the way, and they're only six games back of the Cubs. Nobody should be completely giving up on them yet, which is essentially what VIP is doing by offering these odds.

This Week's Links (5/19-5/23)

Sportsbook's #1 pick odds have changed slightly in response to the Bulls winning the lottery. Previously, Rose was -120 and Beasley was -110; they are now each -115.

Mike Piazza retired.

Should the Rays take Buster Posey first overall?

College football previews: USC, tOSU.

Cris Carter "has a problem" with Will Leitch, for all kinds of logical reasons.

"If Billy Wagner's on your side, you probably want to change sides."

Futures Watch: Week 8

This week:
Oakland, 50:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 24-23
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 27.3%
Tampa Bay, 35:1 (BetUS, 5Dimes)
Current Record: 27-19
PECOTA: 49.4%

Oakland beat the Rays today, which is not factored into any of the statistics above.

Tampa's average weekly odds thus far this year:


The first big shift comes directly after their six-game winning streak, which ended April 27. Their odds have been steadily descending since.

They've now allowed 193 runs in 47 games, on pace for 665. A little higher than last year, but I'm pretty sure they'd take that.

A week ago, BetUS had the Rays at 16:1 to win the AL East. Today, their best odds to win it all are 35:1, and it's as low as 20:1 at Sportsbook. (They didn't screw around, dropping it all the way from 100:1. Seems as though they're not too interested in taking many more bets on Tampa.)

Prior to today's win, Oakland had lost 8 of 10. Unsurprisingly, the offense was the problem, hitting .233/.313/.361 over that span (at least they're still walking).

It feels like it'll be hard for the A's to hang with the Angels all year--they're currently three games out--but it's certainly possible. The Angels were 27-20 coming into today, but their third-order record is actually under .500. Their scoring margin was only +8, and that's even while performing well in clutch situations.

Atlanta, 40:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 24-21
PECOTA: 31.8%

Contrast this with the Mets' best odds--10:1 at Sportsbook. Not only are the Braves two games ahead in the standings after today's win, but they've played much better so far this year.

Atlanta has now outscored their opponents by 58 runs. Some of that is because of a relatively weak schedule, but it's still impressive. The Mets, on the other hand, are only +4, against an average schedule.

The Braves have done this by playing well on both sides of the ball--both their OPS+ and ERA+ are 117. Obviously Chipper has led the offense, but McCann has been very good as well, hitting .321/.382/.596.

PECOTA's odds likely underestimate their playoff chances; the question is by how much. The version of the playoff odds that only considers data from this season has them at 54.3%, so it's probably somewhere in the middle. If they're 40% to reach the playoffs, and 50-50 to win the DS, and 40% to win the CS, that'd put their pennant odds at 11.5:1; BetUS has them at 17:1, so that's probably a pretty good wager.

Edit: At Matchbook they are +950 to win the NL, and -1450 to not win the NL, so 17:1 is definitely good.

Also: Losing with the Right Guys [Let's Go Tribe]

Futures Watch: Week 7

This week:
Oakland, 35:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 23-17
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 34.3%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 23-16
PECOTA: 46.3%

If the season ended today...What, it doesn't? Can we change that rule? Please?

Tampa's odds at different books have been quite strange. At Sportsbook, they're 100:1 to win it all, and 5:1 to win the division. At BetUS, they're 35:1 to win it all and, until a few hours ago, were 16:1 to win the East (it's been changed to 6:1). Those ratios make no sense. This is what happens when you win six in a row, and they change one set of odds, but don't get to the other.

16:1 is gone, but the 100:1 line at Sportsbook is still quite good. The best odds you can get on them anywhere else are 55:1 at 5Dimes. I know I said this last week, but it's only a matter of time before Sportsbook changes their odds dramatically; that's especially true after their performance in the last week.

We are now almost a quarter of way through the season- Tampa has played 39 games. The Rays are on pace to allow 652 runs. I understand offense is always down at the beginning of the season before the weather warms up, and that's especially true this year. But that is 292 fewer run than last year. Even if you factor in the significant difference in run environments (9.8 R/G last year, 8.8 this year), that's 218 fewer runs. It's an insane turnaround, and one which has been caused mostly by defense- they are on pace to be 248 plays better on balls in play than last year, which equates to about a 200 run improvement.

The inability of the mainstream media to distinguish between the Rays and the Marlins is annoying. Florida is off to a good start, which is great. But the reason for this is, as Sheehan put it, "they had Jim Boeheim draw up the schedule". Tampa's third order winning percentage is .579; Florida's is .497. The fact that they play in the same start, and both have low payrolls, doesn't make them comparable teams.

I am losing interesting in Oakland. 35:1? 4:1 to win the division? No thanks.

Milwaukee, 60:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 20-19
PECOTA: 43.7%

This is interesting. Their highest odds anywhere else are 35:1.

Their offense's OPS, which was 106 last year, is down to 93 this season. The main culprits for this are Prince Fielder (.250/.349/.412), Rickie Weeks (.190/.311/.340), and J.J. Hardy (.254/.333/.323). Braun is the only hitter who has been significantly above average, and that's only because he's raised his OPS by 147 points in four games. As expected, they've struggled against righties, hitting .240/.313/.380. But they haven't been particularly good against lefties either, with a .252/.334/.434 line.

They have actually been a couple games worse than their record, as they've been outscored by 14 runs. They've been even worse in terms of EQR/EQRA, at -30. Even if it's come against a difficult schedule, t's been a rough six weeks.

Still, 60:1 is pretty high. Prince Fielder isn't going to continue slugging .412 forever. PECOTA expects them to reach the playoffs 43.7% of the time. That may be overly optimistic, but even if we knock it down to 35%, and give them a 40% chance of advancing through each round of the playoffs, they should be about 45:1.

Futures Watch: Week 6

Last week:
Cincinnati, 150:1 (still 150:1)
Texas, 1000:1 (now 500:1)

Both teams that were 1000:1 at VIP last week (Rangers & Nationals) played competently this week (5-2 and 4-2, respectively), and are now 500:1. It's not like their World Series chances doubled; the folks at VIP probably just realized there is no reason to put a team at 1000:1 to win the World Series in early May.

The Reds were not as fortunate, going 1-5. This dropped their PECOTA Playoff Odds from 8.8% to 5.9%. Their odds are probably about right at this point.

This week:
Oakland, 45:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 21-14
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 34.2%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 17-15
PECOTA: 33.9%

The fun is almost over with these two. Oakland's odds are entirely reasonable- between 30:1 and 45:1- at all five sites now. Sportsbook is a little behind on Tampa, but the best you can do on them anywhere else is 66:1. And at BetUS, their "to win division" odds have been dropped from 25:1 to 14:1. It was fun while it lasted, at least.

Rough week for Tampa's run prevention. Over their last six games they've gone 1-5, and allowed 42 runs. They're now on pace to allow 722 runs; a big dropoff from last week's pace of 654, but still 222 fewer runs than last season.

Now would be the time to get them at Sportsbook at 100:1. People are starting to catch on, if slowly.

After staring at all the current odds for about 10 minutes, I've got nothing. At times like this, I turn to Matchbook. Always something interesting going on over there.

The most useful thing about Matchbook, from an informational standpoint, is that it's an exchange, so you can bet on both sides of their futures. For example, you can currently bet on the Red Sox at +530 to win the World Series, or at -650 to not win the World Series. With these, we can figure that Boston has between a 13.3% and 14.6% chance of winning it all. Averaging those, it's 14%; "true odds" of +580. Sure enough, the best odds you can find on them is the +530 at Matchbook, followed by +485 5Dimes.

I did this same exercise for all 10 teams that current have money being offered on both sides of the "World Series 2008" prop. Here are their "true odds", compared to their highest available odds elsewhere:

The first nine all come in below their true odds. They're all close- none are terrible bets, but none are worth making.

Then there's Toronto. The Blue Jays are 60:1 at VIP, and between 30:1 and 35:1 everywhere else. My focus has obviously been elsewhere, but Toronto is off to a decent start. They're only 17-18, but they've outscored their opponents by 17 runs. True to expectations, their run prevention has been excellent- their 124 runs allowed are the fewest in the American League, and second fewest in baseball (Atlanta, 120).

Sadly, they cannot score, and managed to get both their shortstops injured in one game. Realistically, 60:1 isn't that great; you'd be better off taking them at +1700 to win the East at Matchbook.

Related: Cliff Lee: great pitcher, or greatest pitcher? Discuss.