The 'Sabathia Got Traded' Post

The whole world is reporting that the Indians have traded C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers, so even though the specifics of the deal are unclear, I guess it's time for a post.

There have been strong rumors about a trade between these two teams for awhile now, and for good reason. Both teams are, essentially, trading from a position of excess. The Indians are giving up a 2008 asset (expendable when you're 14 games out of first in July), and the Brewers are trading a potent bat that comes with a questionable glove (valuable, but less so when you're in the NL and already have Braun, Fielder, and Mat Gamel).

The Brewers are seizing their opportunity this season, as it looks to be their best in the near future. Although they will likely benefit from Yovani Gallardo's return next year, ace Ben Sheets will be a free agent this winter; combined with Sabathia's expected departure, the 2008 Brewers rotation is looking a whole lot more formidable than next year's staff.

By acquiring Sabathia right now, Milwaukee is maximizing his value, as he'll be able to make two starts before the All-Star break. That means he'll make approximately 15 regular season starts as a Brewer. Either Dave Bush or Seth McClung will be moved out of the bullpen; it doesn't particularly matter, as an ERA of about 4.60 would be expected out of either. In the NL, the over/under on Sabathia's ERA would likely be around 3.10. Over half a season, that upgrade is worth about 1.5 wins, plus the substantial value he'd potentially provide in the playoffs. Add to that the two compensation picks Milwaukee stands to receive if they don't re-sign Sabathia, and it's easy to like this deal from their perspective.

In terms of impact on the National League pennant race, the team most adversely effected by this trade is likely the Cardinals. Sabathia makes the Brewers the clear frontrunner for the Wild Card (not that they weren't already), and possibly even the second most likely NL playoff team.

It would be a mistake to not mention Sabathia's hitting prowess, as he boasts a career line of .300/.317/.475 (in an outrageously small sample size of 42 PAs, of course). His 440-foot bomb against the Dodgers provided one of the few highlights of Cleveland's 2008 campaign.

Sabathia's departure probably won't register to Indians fans until he takes the mound in Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Ever since his debut at the age of 20, he's been a valuable member of the rotation, posting at least average ERAs in each of his eight seasons. His value as an Indian peaked last year, both in reality (241 IP, 143 ERA+, both career highs) and perception (Cy Young award).

Sabathia's poor performance at the outset of the season (18 IP, 27 R, 14 BB, 5 HR in four starts) made headlines and, other than in trade talks, he hasn't been in the news much since. However, he's been as good as anybody since mid-April, posting a 2.16 ERA and 109:20 K:BB ratio in 104.1 innings. His 2008 QERA--even including those first four starts--is an impressive 3.44.

Unfortunately, this is how a team with the Indians' resources is forced to do business. From a business perspective, drafting Sabathia is likely one of the smartest things the organization has ever done. They turned a #20 pick in the 1998 draft and about $30MM into 1,528.2 innings of a 115 ERA+, and the four prospects they'll receive from Milwaukee.

The headlining prospect is Matt LaPorta, a 23-year old out of the University of Florida. Last winter, Kevin Goldstein ranked him as the #1 prospect in the Brewers organization, and Keith Law had him 37th in all of baseball. This year, he's hit .291/.404/.584 in 296 ABs at AA Huntsville. He'll likely report to AAA Buffalo, and could contribute to the big club as early as August. He'll likely end up at first base, a position that has emerged as a weakness for the Indians in 2008, as Ryan Garko has managed only a .243/.324/.342 line.

The details beyond LaPorta are not entirely clear, but reports indicate the Indians will be receiving LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and a PTBNL.

Jackson doesn't look to be anything to write home about, as he's a 25-year old with a 7.83 ERA at AAA Nashville, with 33 Ks and 9 HRs allowed in 56.1 IP.

Bryson is a 20-year old currently a single-A West Virginia, with a considerable amount of upside. He was moved to the bullpen after five starts, and has recorded 73 Ks in 55 innings, while walking 20 and giving up three homers. Back in February, Goldstein described him as "[offering] plenty to dream on."

The fourth prospect sounds like it may end up being 21-year old Taylor Green. He primarily played second base in 2006, but was then moved to third, apparently because of Rickie Weeks' presence presence on the Brewers. The thinking is that the Indians would like to get a good look at him at second before committing to him, as he'd theoretically be more valuable there. In 2008, Green has put up a line of .297/.381/.452 with Brevard County, with 10 homers in a park that significantly suppresses power.

The Indians and Brewers matched up very well, which of course is why this deal happened in the first place. The Indians got a high impact bat that will be able to contribute to the 2009 club. They also received potential long-term solutions for second base and the rotation, although the probabiliity of those two is significantly lower. I'm in no real position to value prospects, but this seems like a pretty decent haul, especially considering the heightened (perceived) value of prospects over the last few years.

Related:
The Big Trade, Part I [Let's Go Tribe]
Meet Matt LaPorta [The Cleveland Fan]
Keith Law [ESPN]
All about LaPorta [CastroTurf]

Reevaluating The Tribe: Pitching

Starting rotation
PECOTA: C.C. Sabathia (103 IP), 3.42 ERA, 3.4 K:BB ratio
Fausto Carmona (89 IP), 4.07 ERA, 2.0 K:BB
Jake Westbrook (82 IP), 4.53 ERA, 1.7 K:BB
Paul Byrd (56 IP), 5.13 ERA, 2.1 K:BB
Clifton Phifer Lee (52 IP), 4.95 ERA, 1.9 K:BB

Actual: Sabathia (106.1 IP), 4.06 ERA, 3.6 K:BB, 3.24 FIP
Carmona (58 IP), 3.01 ERA, 0.6 K:BB, 4.53 FIP
Westbrook (34.2 IP), 3.12 ERA, 2.7 K:BB, 4.45 FIP
Byrd (84.2 IP), 5.21 ERA, 3.1 K:BB, 5.81 FIP
Lee (95.2 IP), 2.45 ERA, 5.3 K:BB, 2.47 FIP

Overall
PECOTA ERA: 4.40
Actual ERA: 3.82

Okay, maybe that was a little too much information all at once. The last two numbers are the important part--the rotation has been excellent, much better than expected.

Dave Cameron wrote about Lee over at FanGraphs, explaining how unlucky he's been since the end of April. His May BABIP was .346, and as of last week it was .437 (!) in June. As you can see if you wade through the numbers above, his FIP (2.47) is actually right with his ERA (2.45).

Sabathia's FIP has also been very impressive; that isn't weighed down (or up, I guess) as much by those first four starts as his ERA is. He has been ridiculously good in his last 12 starts--88.1 IP, 6 HR, 16 BB, 93 K, 2.14 ERA.

So, they have two good starters, at least for now. Sadly, you need five. It's hard to have such a high ERA/FIP with a 3:1 K:BB ratio, but Byrd manages by never striking anyone out, and giving up a lot of homers. Laffey isn't nearly as good as his current 2.98 ERA, but he's serviceable. Sowers was very effective in AAA, but has gotten lit up on the majors in five starts.

Rest of way: Sabathia (125 IP), 3.40 ERA
Lee (95 IP), 3.90 ERA (?)
Byrd (85 IP), 5.20 ERA
Laffey (85 IP), 4.45 ERA
Sowers (70 IP), 5.35 ERA
Carmona (40 IP), 4.20 ERA

Rest of way: 4.32 ERA (4.73 RA)

Bullpen
Overall
PECOTA: 4.10 ERA
Actual: 4.87 ERA, 4.59 FIP

I am not going to go through every reliever, since the makeup of the bullpen is essentially the same as three months ago, but obviously this has been an area of weakness, with a -3.64 WPA. Their FIP suggest that they haven't been as bad as they've looked, but they're clearly not going back to last year's numbers (3.75 ERA).

Rest of way: 4.35 ERA (4.76 RA)

That puts the pitching staff's RA at 4.74. In making the conversion from ERA to RA, I've tried to make an adjustment for what looks like a slightly below average defense, multiplying ERA by 1.095 rather than the AL average of 1.077.

Combining this with yesterday's post, we have the Indians scoring 4.76 R/G while allowing 4.74. In terms of Pythag, that's a .502 winning percentage, which is actually quite close to the .497 that the BP PECOTA Postseason Odds is using. In light of that, the Indians' chances of reaching the playoffs are probably around 8 or 9 percent.

WSAS asked me last night if I thought they should trade Sabathia. As of right now, I think the answer is no, you hold on to him, since they're still in the race. A month from now I'm guessing my answer will be different, assuming they've either failed to make up ground on the three teams ahead of them, or fallen even further back. Even then, though, it's going to depend on who they can get back in a trade, weighing that against the picks they'd receive if they lost Sabathia to free agency, and determining if that difference is worth giving up last year's Cy Young winner.

It's just too complicated of a situation to blindly jump to either "trade him" or "keep him". If, right now, Colletti offered Billingsley and Kershaw (he might!), they'd have to do it. If the Indians have a 1% chance of reaching the playoffs on July 31, and the best offer is some B- prospect, they shouldn't. The end of this whole saga will almost certainly come between those two extremes, but without knowing exactly where it will fall, it's silly to jump onto one side or the other at this point.

Photo: LogoServer.

Reevaluating The Tribe: Offense

Joe Sheehan had an article today arguing that the Indians should keep Sabathia, and make a run at the division. Someone should probably get Sheehan and Tyler Kepner together for a little chat. The article mentions various metrics, including their run differential (+15) and EqA (11th in the AL).

For most teams, in most years, that'd be sufficient. But for the 2008 Indians, I don't think it is. This team is so different than it was three months ago that we really need to determine a new baseline for its expected performance. Since they have a pretty important decision to make over the next five weeks, I thought I'd attempt to do that.

Today, I'll break down their offense, position by position, in order to figure out how many runs they should be expected to score the rest of the way. Tomorrow I'll look at the pitching staff, and then we'll have a better idea of how good the Indians, as currently constructed, really are.

(The percentages for each position are for the player, rather than for the player at that particular position. So the numbers for each position don't add up to 100%, but all the numbers add up to 900%.)

Catcher PECOTA: Victor Martinez (85%), .293/.369/.458
Kelly Shoppach (25%), .230/.305/.413

YTD: Martinez: .278/.332/.333
Shoppach: .230/.304/.416

Martinez's line is worse than his 10th percentile PECOTA. His SLG is down 172 points from last year. It's very hard to know how good he will be if/when he comes back, but for our purposes it doesn't even matter that much, since Shoppach will get the majority of ABs from here on out. At least he's easy to project.

Rest of way: Shoppach (55%), .230/.305/.413
Martinez (30%), .285/.345/.420
Fasano (15%), .223/.283/.389

First base
PECOTA: Ryan Garko (80%), .272/.343/.460

YTD: Garko: .255/.339/.368

They don't even have an excuse here. .194 ISO last year, .113 ISO this year. He's not hurt, he's not old. But hey, at least he contributes in the field and on the basepaths, right?

Rest of way: Garko (90%), .265/.340/.440

Second base
Asdrubal Cabrera (80%), .263/.324/.383
Josh Barfield (15%), .260/.304/.393
Jamey Carroll (15%), .246/.328/.319

YTD: Cabrera: .184/.282/.247
Barfield: .000/.000/.000 (6 ABs)
Carroll: .281/.369/.349

Another complete and total collapse. Cabrera was playing way over his head last year, but PECOTA knew that, and didn't exactly expect him to win the batting title. There are pretty low offensive expectations for good-field second basemen, but a .529 OPS isn't going to cut regardless of positional value. (That's not to completely write Cabrera off, as he won't turn 23 until November. But he hasn't exactly been an asset in 2008.)

Rest of way: Carroll (75%), .247/.330/.320
Velandia (20%), .325/.310/.386
Barfield (10%), .260/.300/.390

Shortstop
Jhonny Peralta (90%), .266/.341/.431

YTD: Peralta, .243/.292/.429

At one point, I believe Peralta had 11 homers and 19 RBIs. Not 19 RBIs on those home runs; 19 RBIs total. That is hard to do. He has been better with runners on base lately, but he's still making outs 70+% of the time. He's also awful at short. Seriously, this infield has had one of the worst 12 week stretches you'll ever see.

Rest of way: Peralta (95%), .262/.331/.430

Third base
Casey Blake (80%), .264/.333/.432
Andy Marte (25%), .245/.309/.418

Actual: Blake: .266/.340/.430
Marte: .146/.196/.167

This is the fifth position we've looked at, and the first one where the starter hasn't completely collapsed. Incredible, really.

Blake has actually contributed about a half run more than his slash line would indicate, as he's hit .422/.500/.781 w/RISP. This led to some announcer claiming that the reason for this clutchiness was that he concentrates harder in those situations. Which seems entirely reasonable to me, really. It's not like he hit .190/.271/.294 w/RISP last year. No, that never happened.

Rest of way: Blake (95%), .265/.335/.430
Marte (15%), .243/.307/.415

Left field
PECOTA: Jason Michaels (50%), .266/.336/.401
David Dellucci (50%), .250/.343/.430
Ben Francisco (35%), .272/.328/.437

YTD: Michaels: .207/.258/.276
Dellucci, .225/.312/.399
Francisco, .302/.353/.479

Man, I had completely forgotten about Michaels. Hadn't thought about him in weeks. What a train wreck he was. Francisco has been one of the few bright spots for the offense, so much so that he went from AAA to hitting third every night in about a month.

Rest of way: Francisco (95%), .274/.330/.443

Center field
PECOTA: Grady Sizemore (95%), .277/.367/.490

YTD: Sizemore: .266/.372/.514

This is the second--and final--position from which the Indians have gotten the expected amount of production. Sizemore was covered last week. He's still good, if confusing.

Rest of way: Sizemore (95%), .275/.368/.493

Right field
PECOTA: Franklin Gutierrez (70%), .267/.330/.448

YTD: Gutierrez: .239/.289/.353

Gutierrez is a fantastic defender. Too bad he's a corner outfielder with a .289 OBP.

Rest of way: Gutierrez (65%), .263/.322/.430
Choo (60%), .255/.325/.378

Designated hitter
PECOTA: Travis Hafner (80%), .275/.384/.492

YTD: Hafner: .217/.326/.350

This has been a disaster, yes, but not quite as surprising as some of the others. The decline began last year, and it was expedited this year. "Old player skills" rearing their ugly head. Or maybe it was his shoulder. Probably both. Kind of incredible how he kept the walk rate up.

Rest of way: Dellucci (70%), .246/.339/.426
Hafner (15%), .260/.365/.440

To recap:
PECOTA: .267/.343/.438
YTD: .245/.323/.390
Rest of way: .262/.333/.423

Prior to the season, PECOTA thought the Tribe would score 5.15 runs per game. Based on their "Rest of way" slash line, that expectation needs to be knocked down to 4.76.Tomorrow I'll look at the pitching staff, where they've only lost their #2 and #3 starters, and seen a guy who PECOTA expected to have a 4.95 ERA become the favorite for the Cy Young.

Photo: Home Run Derby.

Flickering Hopes and Miracles

Yankees' beat writer Tyler Kepner wrote an article in the Times today about the possibility of the Yankees trading for C.C. Sabathia. I like Kepner, but I violently disagree with about half of the article, and thought other parts were an interesting jump off for discussion. So here goes.

A painful swing by the Cleveland Indians’ Víctor Martínez on Wednesday could have significant ramifications for the Yankees. An elbow injury to Martínez all but ended the Indians’ flickering playoff hopes, and will probably lead to a trade of the ace left-hander C. C. Sabathia.

I guess he needed a way to kick off the article and get everybody's attention. Well, that worked.
No, it's not good that Martinez is going to be out at least through July. But it's not like he had been carrying the team; .278/.332/.333 with exactly zero home runs 54 games. Something was clearly wrong, and it turns out it may have even been two things (I've read that his hamstring has been bothering him as well). Also, Shoppach is one of the best backups in the league; this is why you don't trade your backup catcher, as tempting as it may be at some points.

Anyway, "All but ended the Indians' flickering playoff hopes"? I'm sorry, did I miss something here? Are they 15 back of some powerhouse team? No, they're 6.5 back of the freaking White Sox. They're not in great shape, but they've still got a decent shot here. It's not like it would take a miracle or anything.

The Indians would need a miraculous recovery from their 31-36 start to make the playoffs, and it seems likely they will focus on next season.

Winning 21 of 22 games to reach the World Series is a miracle. Coming back from being seven games out on September 12 is a miracle (it is pretty crazy that both those things happened in one year, isn't it). Winning seven more games than the White Sox over a 95 game stretch doesn't quite fit that description.

By the way, the Yankees are seven games out of first themselves. This is what happens when you make the playoffs 13 straight seasons. You actually begin to think that it's your birthright.

Sabathia is 4-8 with a 4.34 earned run average, but he shut out the Minnesota Twins in his last start Tuesday.

What? Was that start not included in his statistics? Was it a particularly important game?

Here, let me try:

Sabathia's ERA isn't stellar, at 4.34, but he's been dominant since posting a 13.50 ERA in his first four starts. It's not clear what caused his early struggles--maybe thinking about playing for a new contract, maybe all the innings last year, maybe bad mechanics, possibly none of the above--but he seems to be beyond it, as he's posted a 2.09 ERA and a 73:14 K:BB ratio in 73 innings since. He won't be winning any personal awards this year, but he looks to be back to his '07 Cy Young form.

Was that so hard?

The earlier the Indians make Sabathia available, the more they could demand for him in prospects. The Indians acted quickly in June 2002 by dangling Bartolo Colón, their ace at the time, in trade talks. They received a bonanza of prospects from Montreal, including outfielder Grady Sizemore, pitcher Cliff Lee and infielder Brandon Phillips.

I don't have anything to say here. I just like being reminded of that trade. This was the worst trade in...how long? It's worse than Kazmir-Zambrano, because it's three guys instead of one. The Liriano/Nathan/Bonser combo was looking pretty unbeatable around here, but that ended. I'm open to suggestions.

The Yankees’ second baseman, Robinson Canó, is struggling, and his salary would not be too much for the Indians. But because Sabathia is unsigned past this season, it is doubtful Canó would be traded for him.

That would work. Did you know Dewan's numbers had Cano at +17 last year, and +5 so far this year? I knew he had improved out there, but damn. He hasn't been hitting, but whatever--I'll take that 110 OPS+. Trading Sabathia for him wouldn't even be that much of an immediate downgrade, especially if they do it after Carmona is back; the Indians have gotten a glorious .256 SLG out of their second basemen this year, and currently have Jamey Caroll and Jorge Velandia manning the position.

I doubt the PostingYankees would do it though. Maybe if they got a negotiating window with Sabathia? Maybe IPK instead, would that be agreeable? Just thinking out loud here.

Whether they make a deal, the Yankees must get more consistency from their rotation to reach the playoffs.

“I think over the long haul, consistency from your rotation is the most important thing in baseball,” Manager Joe Girardi said. “This game, to me, starts with your rotation and how well your rotation is throwing.”

That's it. That's how he ends the article. There is no way anyone proofread this last part. At least I hope not.

Woody Strikes Again

In his article today, Woody Paige explains why he thinks the Rockies should look to trade Matt Holliday. In theory, this isn't a horrible idea-- Colorado is in last place, 11 games behind the Diamondbacks, and Holliday is a free agent after next season.

Thankfully, Paige has no problem taking a reasonable concept and creating completely illogical arguments:

The Rockies were good and lucky during a couple of months that ended in "ber" last year, and the National League pennant will fly for- ever in LoDo. But for most of the months that end in "ril," "ay," "une," "uly" and "ust" the past 11 years, the Rockies have been bad (below .500) and unlucky.

I would have to assume the Denver Post has editors. I think that's a pretty reasonable assumption. The question thus becomes: what the hell are they doing? "For -ever"? "Months ending in 'ber'"? Really? This is one of the most incoherent paragraphs I've ever read in my life. They must find this stuff just as amusing as the rest of us do, and leave it in for kicks.

Or, consider: The Rockies acquire Cleveland pitcher C.C. Sabathia, who got off to a terrible start before settling. It would be 2007 Cy Young winner for MVP runner-up.
Sabathia will be a free agent at the conclusion of the season. But it would make sense for dollars to the proven 27-year-old left-hander — probably close to $100 million over five years.

I'm lost. So they're giving up on 2007, but trading for a pitcher who becomes a free agent at the end of the year? But this is okay, because they're going to sign him well below market value to play for the medicore team he just got traded to in the worst ballpark for pitchers in the league? Okay, I think I got it now.

This is my favorite part though:

The Giants? Holliday would be The New Left Fielder, and perhaps the Rockies could pry Tim Lincecum, and others, away from them.

"And others". Because, obviously, Colorado would be insane to trade 1.5 years of Holliday for 5.5 years of Lincecum straight up. Woody never disappoints.

I'm looking forward to two months of gems like this. Maybe there will even be enough for another one of these.

(H/T: BBTF.)

Photo: The Giant Napkin.

Contract Years

The fact that there is actual evidence that players perform better in contract years has always interested me. It's one of the relatively few old baseball clichés that have been confirmed by actual data. Today- and, probably, a couple more times throughout the course of the season- I thought I'd check in on some of the bigger names that are eligible for free agency this winter.

The following players have been selected completely arbitrarily (from here)- I'll probably look at a different group if I do this again.

Pat Burrell
.320/.445/.670, 9 HRs, 24 BBs, 23 Ks

It's unlikely that Burrell will continue doing his best '00 Bonds impersonation, but notice the BB/K ratio. In his first year in the league, he struck out in 34.1% of his PAs, and walked in 13.4%. He's been steadily improving since:


His other numbers have also steadily increased, if not as consistently. He's 31- the hot start puts him in good position to have a career year, and it's certainly nice timing.

It'll be interesting to see how much he gets in the offseason. In theory, I'd think that the same GMs that appreciate the walks and don't mind all the Ks (read: the smart ones) would be hesitant to invest too heavily in a 31-year old with the dreaded "old player skills". Although maybe he'll end up with a high enough BA and HR total that it won't matter.

Adam Dunn
.209/.371/.374, 4 HRs, 24 BB, 24 K

At least he's still walking.

This seems like unfortunate timing for Dunn, doesn't it? Unless there is a dramatic reversal of fortunes, he will be viewed as a secondary option to Burrell. I won't waste everybody's time pointing out the obvious similarities. Not an ideal situation for Dunn, but it might make him a good deal for whichever team he ends up with. Maybe a certain GM with a team incapable of scoring runs that needs a LF anyway is thinking the same thing.

C.C. Sabathia
1-5, 7.51 ERA, 38.1 IP, 50 H, 6 HR, 18 BB, 37 K

The K/BB still isn't yet at the lofty numbers we've come to expect from Sabathia, but considering it was 14/14 after four starts, he's recovered quite nicely. And if Franklin Gutierrez was capable of catching a fairly routine fly ball, his ERA over his last three starts would likely be under 1. The ERA looks like it'll be fine, if a little inflated because of the early struggles. Whether the Indians will be able to score enough wins to get him a respectable win total is an entirely different story.

It doesn't really matter though. By November, those four April starts will be ancient history- barely more recent than the the '07 Cy Young award. How much will he get? Santana's contract (6/137.5) is probably a good starting point- Johan is better, but he also never got to test the open market. With the way "Generation Trey" is shaping up, I might even (cringe) take the over on that.

Ben Sheets
4-0, 2.29 ERA, 39.1 IP, 3 HR, 11 BB, 33 K*

Well, Gagne isn't helping. Obviously, the big thing with Sheets is health, as he has a 3.77 career ERA but has averaged just 21 starts/year since 2004. I apologize if this was covered in Baseball Between the Numbers- strangely, I don't own it- but I wonder if guys tend to stay on the field longer in contract years. That's not to question Sheets' "toughness" or whatever- I can't blame the guy for having some extra incentive to stay out there and get those IP totals back to his '02-'04 levels.

Because of the injuries, Sheets probably has the most to lose/gain over the next five months. If he wins the Cy Young, how much could he get? 5/90? That may be a little high, but it doesn't seem unreasonable. On the other hand, if he gets hurt in his next start, who's going to give him more than one, maybe two years? Besides him.

Rafael Furcal
.381/.466/.603, 4 HRs, 19 BB, 15 K

Both Furcal's BABiP (.411) and ISO (.222) are way above his career averages. There's no way the BABiP stays that high- he's been between .298 and .350 each year of his career. The ISO is impressive though, and it's not only a product of an increased HR/FB%, since he has 12 doubles and 4 triples. He won't keep this up, but this winter's contract should look similar to the 3/39 the Dodgers gave him after 2005.

*Stats include Sunday's game; everybody else's are through Saturday.

(By the way, Macklin is transferring to Florida.)

Photo: ESPN.

Sabathia Won't Negotiate Until After Season

From C.C.'s website (via Let's Go Tribe):

"Now that the reporting date for spring training is here, it is time to put aside contract discussions so that I can focus all of my energies and attention on preparing for the upcoming season...There will be time after the season for the Indians and my representatives to discuss my contract status. I remain hopeful that these discussions will result in a contract extension that will keep me with the franchise for many years to come."

There is not much to say about this. LGT sums it up:

"Let me be really clear about this: This means C.C. will not be a Cleveland Indian after 2008. Despite his polite encouragement, there is no real rational reason to believe he will choose to re-sign with the Indians once he is eligible for free agency at the end of the season."

It would have made some financial sense for Sabathia to re-up with the Tribe at a discount prior to the season, as it eliminates the risk that he will suffer a major injury before he gets paid.

But now, unless something really odd happens, it would make no financial sense to either side for Sabathia to be an Indian in 2009 and beyond.

Photo: MSNBC.

Explaining a Ballot

As I mentioned earlier, I sent an e-mail to Kevin Sherrington, the Dallas Morning News writer that didn't have C.C. Sabathia on his AL Cy Young ballot at all. Everybody else had C.C. either first or second, so I wondered what Sherrington's logic was.

He was kind enough to reply very quickly. His ballot was Beckett, Carmona, Santana, in that order. His explanation for each follows.

Beckett:

"No, the 20 games didn't do it. It's only a game's difference. Beckett's
ballpark had something to do with it, along with my feeling that Beckett was a better big-game pitcher, a fact borne out again in the playoffs."

It was good to see that Beckett didn't get the nod simply because he had a shiny win total. It's true that Beckett pitches in a slightly more difficult park (Fenway's park factor is 106; Jacobs Field's is 103). This does make Beckett's ERA+ (145) superior to Sabathia's (143)

But that's a fairly minimal difference; it clearly doesn't make up for the huge innings disparity. And also, if we're looking at outside factors, how about defense? The Sox had the best defense in the league; Cleveland's was below average. Finally, the fact that Beckett pitched well for the Florida Marlins in the 2003 playoffs really couldn't be less relevant to the 2007 AL Cy Young.

Carmona:

"I gave more credence to Carmona's road ERA over Sabathia's."

Carmona's road ERA was 2.73; Sabathia's was 3.32. I have no idea what this has to do with anything.

Santana:

"Should I have had Santana over Sabathia? Probably a mistake. I think
Santana's numbers other than W-L are outstanding. I was influenced too
much about having two Indians on a three-man ballot. Shouldn't have let that be
a factor."

It's clear that if he could do it again, Sherrington would have Sabathia at least third on his ballot. It's cool that he admits his mistake, although this really seems like something that he could have realized before submitting his vote.

If you're going to give Beckett credit for pitching in a hitter's park, shouldn't Johan be hurt by having half his starts in the Metrodome? Minnesota's home park was very friendly to pitchers, with a 96 park factor. This caused Santana's ERA+ to be 130, clearly inferior to Sabathia's 143.

It's clear Sherrington put some thought into his ballot, and didn't just look at Beckett's 20 wins and put him first because of that. But it seems like his methodology was quite flawed; he was pretty selective in what factors he took into account for each pitcher, and considered arbitrary things that don't matter at all ("Beckett was a better big-game pitcher", Carmona's road ERA).

It's impossible to watch all 2,430 regular season games each year, so people have to look at numbers to see how everyone did. The problem is that some people focus on the wrong things. This generally happens when things like RBIs, runs, and a pitcher's W-L record are cited. Inevitably, in an NL MVP debate, someone will refute the numbers and say Rollins was the most valuable player in the league...and then back that up with the fact he scored 139 runs.

Here, park factors were given far too much weight in one case, and completely ignored in another. More advanced stats (ideally things like VORP, but even ERA+ and OPS+) automatically give the proper weight park factor and similar adjustments. If people would just take the time to learn and understand them, it would save everybody a lot of hassle.

Cy Voting Details

This article in today's Boston Globe sheds some light on some of the details of yesterday's voting. Some interesting tidbits:

"Two writers - Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News and Jorge Ortiz of USA Today - left Beckett off their three-man ballot. Each of them voted Sabathia first, Cleveland teammate Fausto Carmona second, and Angels pitcher John Lackey third."

That order looks strangely familiar...

2007 VORP leaders, AL Pitchers:
1. C.C. Sabathia, 65.2
2. Fausto Carmona, 64.0
3. John Lackey, 60.7

I don't know if Feinsand and Ortiz considered VORP in filling out their ballot or not, but that's really not the point. These are two guys that are clearly looking beyond the fact that Josh Beckett had *20* wins, which is encouraging.

Also, there's this:

"One writer, Kevin Sherrington of the Dallas Morning News, left Sabathia off his ballot, voting Beckett first, Carmona second, and Minnesota's Johan Santana third."

Every other voter had Sabathia either first or second; I really don't know how you can look at this situation and determine that C.C. Sabathia wasn't one of the three best pitchers in the AL this year. I just e-mailed Mr. Sherrington, asking for his thoughts on the voting.

Sabathia Wins Cy Young

I'm gonna go ahead and look at the following as progress (from MLB.com):

Mentioning that Beckett had one additional win is fine, as long as you qualify it. I read that second sentence as "Josh Beckett had one more win, but that's really an awful measure of how good he actually was at pitching."

After the disaster that was yesterday, the writers actually did pretty well today. The voting really wasn't close:

I would really like the person that voted for Verlander (18-6, 201.2 IP, 183K, 3.66 ERA) to explain that to me.

It's interesting to compare this with the standings for the Neyer/James Cy Young Predictor:

Pretty close, except CYP really underestimated Beckett. I would have to think this is because he had *20* wins, which looks a lot better than 19. Their formula gives you six points per win, but it seems like Beckett probably got about 10 points for win number 20.

Previously: Beckett Fails to Lock Up Cy Young

Update: Two very good points in the comments:

OMDQ points out that MLB.com spelled Bedard's first name wrong (it's Erik...actually, it's Érik). And Trevor noticed that Sabathia was left off of one ballot entirely, which is pretty incredible.

ALCS Primer: Game 5

Tonight, the Indians have a chance to clinch their first pennant in 10 years, with likely Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia taking the hill for the Tribe at Jacobs Field.

If you isolate that information, it looks great for the Tribe. But Sabathia has struggled in the postseason, and he's going up against Josh Beckett, who has been dominant in two October starts (0BB, 15K in 15 IP).

Because of this the Sox are actually favored tonight, with Vegas giving them a 53.8% chance of extending the series to a sixth game.

Game 5 Lineups

Kielty started in right for the Sox in G1, and came through with a two-run single in the 5th that knocked Sabathia out of the game. Drew has had a pretty poor series, going 4/15 with no extra base his and no walks. I would think Kielty starts tonight against the lefty Sabathia.

Wedge played Gutierrez in right in G1, but he struck out both times he faced Beckett, so I'd guess he goes with Nixon tonight. Although I think I've been wrong on the Indians' RF the last three games, so I should probably stop.

Game 5 Starters

I have very little left to say about this Beckett character. Last six postseason appearances (five starts): 44.1 IP, 19H, 5R, 6BB, 48K, 2HR, 1.02 ERA, opponents hitting .128/.173/.209 against him. He did give up two runs against the Indians in G1, but one was a Hafner HR that was probably aided by the wind, and the second came when the score was 8-1. The Red Sox claim he left after six innings and only 80 pitches because of "tightness". I don't even really know what that means. I expect him to be absolutely filthy tonight, as usual.

Prior to this year, Sabathia had pitched over 200 innings in a season only once, throwing 210 innings in 2002. So far this season, he's at 250.1. That's probably main reason for his struggles in two postseason starts, with nerves also playing a factor (and also the fact that the two offense he's faced are just really good). After walking 37 batters over 241 regular season innings, he's issued 11 free passes in 9.1 playoff innings. Luckily for him, the Indians' other starters have gotten them this far, and tonight he has a chance to make everybody forget about his poor October thus far.

Game 5 Bullpens

These extra off days really make bullpen management easy for Wedge and Francona. Off day yesterday, and an off day tomorrow, which means they really don't have to hold much back tonight. Betancourt was the only guy who threw multiple innings in G2, and even he only threw 15 pitches (12 strikes...the guy is a machine).

Live-blog up soon. First pitch at 8:21.

ALCS Primer: Game 1

After three grueling days without American League baseball, the ALCS finally begins tonight. I've already written about the rotations, lineups, bullpens, and defenses. And as if that wasn't enough, I discovered that we really shouldn't just look at the Pythagorean records of these two teams and assume the Red Sox are a lot better; it's actually pretty close.

Game 1 Lineups
Against the righty Beckett, I would assume won't do anything weird- Victor catching, Garko at first, Asdrubal at second, Peralta at short, Blake at third, Kenny in left, Grady in center, Gutierrez in right, and Pronk DHing.

Boston is going to start Kielty in right, since he has the platoon advantage against Sabathia, and has hit CC well in his career (.310/.375/.655 in 32 PAs). Beyond that, I would assume it'll be Youk, Pedroia, Lugo, and Lowell from 1st to 3rd, Manny and Coco joining Kielty in the OF, and Ortiz DHing.

Game 1 Starters
Sabathia vs. Beckett is a pretty ridiculous matchup. I had somehow missed this, but Knuckle Curve points out that against lefties this year, Sabathia has walked four while striking out 75. Yes, his K:BB ratio against lefties this year is better than 18:1. Add in 3 HBPs, and 3 HRs allowed, and his Fielding Independent ERA against LHB is 1.49 this season.

That's pretty amazing, although it isn't going to be particularly helpful against the Sox, since with Drew out of the lineup they'll have only one lefty (Ortiz). Sabathia's FIP against righties is 3.48.

I saw on ESPNNews this morning that Beckett has thrown a shutout in three of his last four playoff starts. This is over the span of three series and five years, with a relief appearance in between, but that's still pretty amazing. In his last five October appearances, he has struck out 41 while walking six in 38.1 innings. He has allowed one homer, and his ERA is 0.70. Wow.

Game 2 Bullpens

Well, everybody is rested. There's a good chance that Papelbon will be the only reliever the Red Sox need, if they need any at all. For Cleveland, I would expect Betancourt to see more action than Perez because of all the righties Boston is starting, although they do have a few lefty bats on the bench (Drew, Hinske, Ellsbury, Cora).

One gambling note: here are the odds from BetUS.com for the exact result of the series.
I think that "Red Sox, 4-3" line is pretty good. G7 would either be Beckett (if they pitched him on short rest in G4) or Matsuzaka, against Jake Westbrook. In Boston. These lines only give Boston a 56.5% chance of winning that game. If it comes to that, even if it's Matsuzaka against Westbrook, Boston is going to be a much bigger favorite than -130, which is the corresponding line for 56.5%.

Completely unrelated, but can everybody (read: ESPN) please shut up about this interference call last night. It was a good call, he went out of his way (intentionally or not) to prevent Matsui from completing the DP. Where is the debate here?

G1 starts in about 3.5 hours, so it's finally time for a prediction. I'm gonna go with Indians in 6. I think Boston wins tonight, but the Indians take G2. Then the Indians take 2/3 in Cleveland (I'm not gonna bother trying to predict the exact games, since we don't really know who Boston's G4 starter is), then Fausto ends it in G6. I'm sticking with my "Fausto becomes famous" prediction.

Update: I would just like to add that my "gorilla math*" has CLE +151 as giving the bettor about a 10% advantage tonight.

*The Urban Dictionary definition for that term is awesome.

Completely unrelated, but a new college football blog written by some friends of mine who are reasonably intelligent: Week 7 Picks [Little Men on Campus]

Are the Indians "Built for October"?

When trying to gauge the relative strengths of teams in October, people tend to use run differential. The Red Sox were +210, the Indians +107, thus the Red Sox must be significantly better.

The runs scored portion of this makes sense to me. Boston averaged 5.35 R/G, Cleveland 5.01. Those numbers are probably pretty representative of the strength of their offenses.

In terms of pitching, however, run differential doesn't strike as a very effective way to judge teams in October. First of all, a lot of these guys aren't even on the playoff rosters. Does it really matter that Jeremy Sowers allowed 49 runs in 67.1 innings? Should we really care that Roberto Hernandez had a 6.23 ERA in 26 innings? As incredible as Clay Buchholz was in limited work (22.7IP, 4ER, 22K), that really isn't going to help the Red Sox against the Indians.

I think we also need to take into account the extra off days. During the regular season, C.C. Sabathia made 34 starts, which is 21% of the Indians' games. Regardless of the length of this series, his share of October starts will be higher. If the series is a sweep, he will have pitched in 25% of the games. If it's not, he will pitch game five, which means he'll pitch in at least 28.5% (2/7) of Cleveland's games.

I have always thought that the Indians are "built for October", with the strength at the top of their rotation, and their three excellent relievers (plus Borowski). So I decided to try to figure otu if there was any truth to that.

Here's what I did. For the bullpens, I took the FIPs of each pitcher. I then tried to figure out about what percentage of their team's relief innings each pitcher will throw. Here are the results of that little exercise:

These %s are obviously quite unscientific, but I think they're pretty decent approximations. Using these, we can reach a weighted ERA for each bullpen. Cleveland's comes to 3.11, Boston's to 3.27. This doesn't take fielding into account at all (thus the "Fielding Independent" portion of FIP), so I added each teams unearned runs per nine innings; 0.24 for Boston, 0.28 for CLE. So, the expected bullpen RA is 3.35 for Cleveland, and 3.55 for the Red Sox.

For the starters, I just used their individual RAs. I also took into account each guy's average innings per start. For example, Sabathia has an RA fo 3.51, and averages 7.1 IP/GS. That leaves 1.9 innings to the bullpen. So I combined Sabathia's 3.51 RA, and the Indians' bullpen RA of 3.35 (obviously weighting Sabathia's much more heavily), to come to 3.46 as the Indians' expected RA in a game Sabathia starts. Here are the numbers for each of the eight starters:

Okay, now we just have to account for the number of starts each pitcher will get. For this, I turned to the Vegas lines (of course I did). BetUS.com thinks there's a 15% chance of a sweep, 25% chance it ends in 5, 30% in 6, and 30% it goes 7.

Accordingly, the G1 starters will make an average of 1.85 starts, G2 starters 1.60, G3 starters 1.30, and G4 starters 1.oo (obviously). With this information, we can weight each SP's "TM RA" appropriately, and take into account that Sabathia and Beckett will inevitably be bigger factors in this series than Byrd and Wakefield.

Finally, we have how many runs we should expect each team to allow per game. Combining this with their R/G, here are the results:

These results are very different from what we get when we simply use RS & RA from the entire season. Doing that, we get an EXP W% of .623 for BOS, and .562 for CLE.

The Red Sox are still the better team, and they have home-field, but it's probably closer than most people think. Here are the W%s for each team in each game, taking the location of the game into account.

The Red Sox are favored in G1 (-155 at Bodog), and that makes sense. It will be interesting to see what the line is for G2; I would guess Boston will be slightly favored, and that may be legit if you want to talke Schilling's postseason dominance into account.

I think Boston will probably be favored in G3, as Matsuzaka inspires more confidence than Westbrook. I'm not so sure about G4 though- this analysis doesn't know that Wakefield is struggling through injuries.

Finally, if the Indians are going to advance, it looks like they're going to have to do it in G6, as things aren't looking too good for them if this thing goes the distance.

Photo: Cleveland.com.

ALCS Preview: Starting Rotations

The last time the Indians made it this far, I was 11. Needless to say, I am excited. I was thinking about doing one really long preview, then decided that was dumb. So I'll be breaking this up into sections (SPs, RPs, and lineups, I guess) over the next few days. Today, the rotations.

As you will see, I am going to decide which team has the "edge" in each match-up, and then arbitrarily give a number to the "impact" that will have on the series. We'll see how this goes.

Game 1 (Fenway, Friday @ 7pm)
CLE Starter: C.C. Sabathia
BOS Starter: Josh Beckett

I'm going to resist getting into the Cy Young debate again. Since we're now concentrating on who will do better going forward, here are the rate stats for these two guys (final column is Fielding Independent ERA):

So, yeah, these guys are decent. This is almost a dead heat, but I'm going to give the advantage to Beckett for a few reasons. First, Boston's defense is better. The stats shows this, and I've anecdotally noticed it as well (especially when Trot is playing).

Second is the fact that Beckett obviously looked a lot better in the ALDS. I'm not big on "playoff experience" and "he's been there before", but Sabathia was clearly a little too hyped up at the beginning of G1, leaving everything up; he ended up walking six batters for the first time since 2004. Beckett, on the other hand: 9IP, 4H, 0R, 0BB, 8K, 108 pitches, 83 strikes.

The schedule is weird this year. There's a day off between G4 and G5 (which is stupid; they're only doing this so they can start the WS on a Wednesday). This means that either of these guys could pitch on three days rest in G4, and then come back on full rest for a potential G7. I doubt the Indians will do this with CC; they'll probably be pretty happy with CC in G5, and Fausto in G6. Boston might though; Beckett obviously has a history on three days rest and Wakefield is kind of a mess right now.

On July 24, Sabathia was impressive against Boston (7IP, 5H, 1R, 0BB, 7K), but the Indians lost 1-0. On July 25, Beckett pitched very well against Cleveland (8IP, 4H, 1R, 0BB, 8K), only to lose 1-0.

FWIW, Manny has killed CC in the past (.571/.609/1.286 in 23 PA), and Hafner's had Beckett's number (.444/.583/1.111 in 12 PA).

Advantage: Boston
Impact: 2/10

Game 2 (Fenway, Saturday @ 8pm)
CLE Starter: Fausto Carmona
BOS Starter: Curt Schilling

Here are the numbers from these two this year, although they really don't tell the whole story.



Fausto Carmona's K/9 by month:

Fausto has really been a different pitcher after the first two months. He only had 11Ks in his first five starts, but has averaged 6.75 K/9 over his last 17. That, along with an AL-leading 64% GB rate, made him a Cy Young candidate in his first full year as a major league SP. And if that didn't get people's attention, Friday night certainly did.

Boston has decided to go with Schilling in G2. He pitched great in the ALDS, which probably factored into that decision. It should be noted that the Angels were without Casey Kotchman in G3, and Gary Matthews Jr. didn't play the entire series. I'm sure Schilling's postseason record (8-2, 1.93 ERA, 23BB & 108K in 116.1 IP) also was taken into account. Schilling still has the great control, but his K/9 this year is down about 2.5 from his career mark of 8.60. Another 7IP, 4H, 0R, 4K performance is certainly possible, but Carmona is clearly the better pitcher right now.

Fausto beat Beckett 1-0 in that July 25 game (8IP, 4H, 0R, 2BB, 6K). Schilling struck out 10 Indians over seven very impressive innings in May.

Edge: Cleveland
Impact: 5/10


Game 3 (Jacobs Field, Monday, 7pm)
CLE Starter: Jake Westbrook
BOS Starter: Daisuke Matsuzaka


After his start on July 3rd, Matsuzaka was 10-5 with a 3.53 ERA. Then things started going downhill:

Those are some pretty alarming trends. He continued his struggles against the Angels, not making it out of the fifth inning. He's pitched against the Indians twice this year, getting hit hard in May, then beating Sabathia 1-0 in July.

Westbrook was terrible in his first six starts this year (7.90 ERA) before going on the DL for 7.5 weeks. Since coming back he's been pretty good, with a 3.54 ERA in 19 starts. He struggled in round one (5IP, 9H, 6R, 1K), and didn't pitch well against Boston in July (6IP, 10H, 5R, 4BB, 1K).

Edge: Cleveland
Impact: 2/10

Game 4 (Jacobs Field, Tuesday, 8pm)
CLE Starter: Paul Byrd
BOS Starter: Tim Wakefield (maybe)


Byrd pitched against Matsuzaka in May, and did pretty well (6IP, 9H, 2R, 0BB, 1K). I continue to have no confidence in him, but maybe he'll continue to prove me wrong (results-wise; he did allow ten baserunners in five innings against NYY). Almost three times as many hits as Ks; that's not a good ratio.

I kind of doubt that Wakefield ends up making this start. Francona on Beckett starting G4:

"The only way that could happen, at least looking at it quickly, is if Wake isn't OK. We want Wake to pitch Game 4, but we don't need to go into Game 4 of a playoff experimenting. ... We need him to be OK and he understands that."

He's certainly keeping all of his options open. If the Sox are down 2-1, I think it'll probably be Beckett. Wake last pitched on September 29th, and his last five starts haven't been impressive: 24.2 IP, 7 HR, 8.76 ERA. He hasn't pitched against the Indians this year.

If this is the actual G4 match up, I think the Indians have the edge, but I'm not at all convinced that it will be.

Edge: Cleveland
Impact: 2/10

The rest of the schedule:

IF NECESSARY
Game 5: @CLE, Thursday the 18th, 8pm
Game 6: @BOS, Saturday 20th, TBD
Game 7: @BOS, Sunday 21st, TBD

So, in total, the Indians' rotation gets the edge, by seven "impact" points. If Wakefield actually starts G4, I think the Indians have the clear advantage in that game as well as G2, with a slight edge in G3. If he doesn't, Beckett, even on three days rest, is better than Byrd, but then the Indians would have big advantages in G5 and G6.

Photos: Carmona, Beckett.

2007 Vegas Watch AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia

I love how different the voting on this site is from anywhere else (well, at least until the IBAs are posted). Carsten Charles (I wish his actual name was more widely used) took almost two thirds of the vote. I applaud the people who voted for Lackey and Fausto when they were like 80 votes behind. I still think Fausto had a better year than Beckett, but thats OK.

NL MVP poll now up.

Photo: Flickr.

Why Even Bother Playing the Games?

I understand that baseball isn't the Sports Guy's specialty. He's an NBA & NFL guy, and just happens to be a Red Sox fan.

He also has one of the most visible writing gigs in the country. So when he started talking to "Cousin Sal" (who apparently is the only guest he's interested in having anymore) (sorry, I'm an idiot, it's Jack-o) last week on his podcast about the AL playoffs, you'd think he would offer a somewhat coherent analysis.

False.

CSJ: This could come back to bite me but, uh, last year, because it could be like last year when I had no concerns about Detroit, it turns out I should have been quite concerned, but, uh, I have no fear of Cleveland- I'll believe CC Sabathia, and more importantly, Fausto Carmona can do it in the playoffs when I see it, and as you said Joe Borowski- and their lineup, I mean, I dont know, their lineup doesn't really frighten me much either.

SG: Yeah, Grady Sizemore is one of those guys that puts up awesome stats and, you know, is like a five tool guy and everybody loves him and everybody raves about him and is great defensively, but every time, every time the Red Sox play him he's like not frightening at all when he's up, and Hafner has just been a disaster this season.
CSJ: He's terrible.

Joe Borowski is not very good, I'll give them that. But why rip on arguably the two best starters in the AL this season, SalJack-O? Fausto Carmona has never gotten it done in the playoffs before? Who cares? He pitched 215 innings with a 3.06 ERA. This is a weakness? And Sabathia is probably going to win the Cy Young.

The Sizemore comment is even worse. How about you just come out and say, "I have not watched a single baseball game this season that didn't involve either the Yankees or Red Sox". That would get the same point across.

This year, Grady Sizemore hit .277/.390/.462 in 628 ABs.

Against Boston he had 28 ABs, hitting .250/.323/.500 with two home runs, although he did fail to instill fear in Bill Simmons. Because of this, he's gonna suck against the Yankees.

Oh and Travis Hafner sucks. He always has, and always will. Not like he was struggling through injuries for most of the year, and has come on strong by hitting .316/.414/.551 in September.

CSJ: The Yanks are 6-0 against Cleveland this year, including beating Carmona I think, and probably Sabathia if they're 6-0- all you have to do is stick around, you gotta keep the game close, get him out of the game.
SG: You're not gonna lose to Cleveland.

Bill Simmons is absolutely certain that a team that won 94 games will beat a team that won 96 in a five-game series.

Because, you know, nothing weird ever happens in the postseason (not that this would even qualify as weird).

For the record, CC Sabathia hasn't started a game against the Yankees since 2004. And this year against the Yankees Fausto Carmona had a 4.15 ERA in 13 innings (Yankees won both games, but good luck blaming this one on Fausto).

How about his Red Sox?

SG: And the funny thing is the Red Sox, kind of, I don't know, I just feel like we're always gonna beat Anaheim when we play them.
CSJ: Yeah, I agree. I literally don't know if I can take another Yankees-Red Sox Armageddon ALCS.

These series haven't even STARTED, and they're already talking about Yankees-Red Sox. I would quote what immediately follows this, but it's too painful to listen to- something about another "war", his pregnant wife, and a lot of giggling.

SG: So, you're thinking Yankees win in four?
CSJ: Yeah.
SG: And I think we're gonna sweep the Angels, we're not gonna mess around in this series.

In Simmons' mind, there are two options. Either the Red Sox could toy with the Angels, and win in five, or "not mess around", and just sweep them. Good to see they'll be making the sensible decision.

Finally, this is an appropriate way to end it:

SG: Does FOX, with the Yankees-Red Sox thing- what do they do with the Babe Ruth stuff?

Nothing. Because THEY ARE NOT PLAYING EACH OTHER.

Before you comment: yes, I'm aware that I'm not FJM, and that the Angels and Indians will probably get swept now that I wrote this.

Photo: Not sure.

Red Sox Choose Longer Series

With the Indians' loss in Kansas City tonight, the Red Sox clinched home field throughout the AL playoffs (throughout the entire postseason in fact, thanks to LaRussa). They also received the opportunity to choose which series schedule they want to play.

According to Boston.com, they have chosen the longer series. I don't understand this at all. The Angels have two of the best starters in the league, in Lackey and Escobar. The Red Sox have Beckett, and then there is a significant drop off before you get to Matsuzaka, Schilling, and Wakefield. In either series, they can pitch Beckett twice on full rest. With the longer series, the Angels can now throw their top two four times if the series goes five, without having to pitch them on short rest. How is this favorable for Boston? I guess they avoid having to pitch Wakefield, but if I were them I would have chosen the other series.

This also completely screws over the Indians, who will have two options for their game four starter: Paul Byrd (who would get destroyed by the Yankees, in fact this has already happened), or Sabathia on short rest. If they go with Byrd they will have CC on short rest for game five; if they go with CC, they can pitch Fausto Carmona on full rest in the finale. I would think they will go with CC on short rest in game four.

The full schedule is here.

Beckett Fails to Lock Up Cy Young

Coming into Thursday's start, it seemed like Josh Beckett had a pretty easy path to his first Cy Young award. He already had 20 wins, and getting his 21st would have put him two ahead of his next closest AL competitors (Carmona and Wang, neither of whom will be making another regular season start).

His opponent was the Twins, who aren't exactly known for their offensive firepower. They rank 12th of 14 AL teams in R/G, and are without catcher Joe Mauer.

It's not like Beckett had to pitch a shutout or anything- all he really needed to do was get win #21- that two win margin probably would have been enough for the voters.

Well, things didn't quite work out as Beckett and the Red Sox had probably envisioned. Beckett single runs in the first, second, third, fifth, and sixth innings. He was pulled after six innings and 99 pitches, with Boston down 5-3. Their rally in the ninth of closer Joe Nathan fell short, and, rather than adding to his win total, Beckett was tagged with his 7th loss of the year.

So how do things stand now? Here are the up to the minute standings, according to Cy Young Predictor:


Of these three, only Sabathia will be making another regular season start- he goes Friday night against Kyle Davies and the Royals. Now he seems to be in the drivers seat, and the same situation Beckett was in 24 hours ago- he just need to get a W, and keeping that ERA under 3.20 wouldn't hurt. If he does that, one would think that, even the BBWAA would see that Sabathia's extra FORTY innings outweigh Beckett's extra one win.

The wild card here is Carmona. He leads the AL in ERA, and is behind only Beckett with his 19 wins. But he lacks the name recognition of the other two guys- he was 1-10 last year, after all. He's also lagging behind in strikeouts, and trails Sabathia in innings (although that hardly makes him unique). I would imagine that Sabathia will get the nod over Carmona if he manages a win on Friday. If he doesn't? Then it's really up in the air, and could go to any of the three.

Photo: SawxBlog