Tentative Plans for Instant Replay

So, it looks like they're going to give this instant replay thing a shot. From Stark, via Shyster:

Major League Baseball is making tentative plans to experiment with instant replay in the Arizona Fall League, according to a baseball official with knowledge of those discussions.

If that experiment proves practical and successful, MLB then is likely to continue the experiment next March during the World Baseball Classic and spring-training games.

If no insurmountable problems arise, baseball could begin using replay -- though only to decide home run calls -- as soon as next season.

Personally, I have no issue with this. It wouldn't slow down the game in any significant sense--the umps already take their time to confer on this type of call. Replay might take a bit longer, but at least they'd get it right. As long as they keep it to something as black and white as home run calls, it seems like a good idea.

Things like this concern me though:


All controversial calls. Plays at first. At the plate. Whether a ball is caught/trapped in the outfield. And, the most horrifying one of all, balls and strikes.

In a vacuum, Major League Baseball's "tentative plans" are good news. In the greater scheme of things, it's a much more complicated issue, as instituting replay is a very, very slippery slope.

Tiger vs. The Field

I know next to nothing about golf, but I'm pretty sure this is nuts.

Mostly, I think it proves how silly it would be to bet on Tiger to win this week- or any week for that matter. He was +125 earlier this week. You have to win 45% of the time for those to be good odds.

Apparently, 75% of SportsNation (which is a slightly different demographic than the betting public, but probably close enough) thinks Tiger has over a 50% chance of winning, and would take him at EV, and probably even worse odds. I would actually love to know how much action the books get on Tiger, compared to other golfers. It is inevitably not close.

Regardless of the price, a lot of money is going to come in on Woods. Given this, there's no way they are going to offer fair odds- why would they?- and a line with a positive expected value is completely out of the question. There's no way the books think he will win anywhere near 45% of the time. Despite my lack of golf knowledge, I'm pretty sure one of the dumbest things you can do in sports wagering is bet on Tiger Woods.