This Week's Links (7/28-8/1)

Yesterday was not a good day for MLB.com.

Yet another reason to root for the Rays.

Ibanez was very close to going to Toronto.

Ted Lilly, master of the inside change-up.

Bannister is encouraged by his xFIP.

The 10 worst deadline deals of the last 10 years.

Manny to LA, Bay to Boston

That was fun, but I'm very thankful it only happens once a year. A breakdown of the big trade from the perspective of each team:

Red Sox
Get: OF Jason Bay
Give up: OFs Manny Ramirez and Brandon Moss, RP Craig Hansen, $7MM

Boston's end of the trade is difficult to quantify, since we don't know what kind of production--or effort--Ramirez would have given the Red Sox down the stretch. What we do know is that Manny's bat, giving 100%, is slightly better than Bay's at this point. The defense is tough to gauge, since Ramirez has "learned" how to play the wall in Boston over the years, but Bay is certainly an upgrade there. So they're not losing much, if anything, in that portion of the deal.

They also get an extra season out of Bay, but at a cost. They'll pay Bay just $7.5MM in 2009, which is a great value. But that doesn't tell the whole story, since they'll have to pay all of Ramirez's remaining salary. If you think about it as paying $14.5MM for Bay next year--which seems like a reasonable estimate of how much he's worth--then it makes sense.

In Moss, they give up a guy who probably wouldn't have developed into a starting outfielder for them. And Hansen has been a huge disappointment since they drafted him in the first round of the '05 draft--he's walked 23 in 30.2 innings this year, with a 5.58 ERA.

The Red Sox had two things they needed to do before 4pm this afternoon--trade Ramirez for an immediate replacement, and upgrade the bullpen. They've done the former, but they traded a reliever rather than acquiring one. A lot of attention will be paid to Manny's replacement in left, but Boston's playoff hopes may rest on whether their their bullpen can hold things together in front of Papelbon.

Dodgers
Get: OF Manny Ramirez, $7MM
Give up: 3B Andy LaRoche, RHP Bryan Morris

Peter Abraham is also reporting that Manny has agreed for the two team options to be removed, and will decline arbitration. So you can add two draft picks to their haul.

LaRoche was destined to end up somewhere else, as the Dodgers just never gave him a chance. That doesn't mean he's without value though, as he could be a very good third baseman, with an excellent OBP, for years to come. Morris had Tommy John surgery last year, but is still just 21 and has a 72:32 K:BB ratio, with only five home runs allowed, in 81.2 single-A innings. The two draft picks have value, but the guys they're giving up are worth significantly more.

Of course, it's not a two-for-two swap; they get two months of Manuel Aristides Ramirez. If they play it right, and Manny is taking playing time from Pierre/Jones, that's a huge upgrade, even with his defense. I like this trade for the Dodgers, especially since they don't have to pay any of Ramirez's salary.

Pirates
Get: 3B Andy LaRoche, OF Brandon Moss, RHPs Craig Hansen and Bryan Morris
Give up: OF Jason Bay

All four prospects have been covered above, one way or another. Assuming the choices were doing this or getting Brignac/Niemann from Tampa--and who knows, really--then Pittsburgh looks to have made the right choice here. LaRoche immediately becomes their starting third baseman*, and Moss can replace Bay in left. Hansen may be a mess at the moment, but I'd think he still has the potential to be a late inning reliever. And Morris is far away, but could end up in their rotation in a couple years.

It's better than Tampa's offer, and it's probably better than what they could've gotten if they waited until the offseason. Doesn't seem like you could ask for much else from the Pirates' perspective.

*Mientkiewicz has played 27 games at 3B for them? Seriously? I have no idea how I missed this.

2008 MLB Trade Deadline Live-Blog

8:40am Rosenthal is reporting that the White Sox have traded for Griffey. Why? I have no idea. The only thing I can think they'd do is bench Konerko, move Thome to first, and have Quentin/Dye/Griffey rotate between LF/RF/DH.

8:44am Or I guess they could put Swisher at first, and have a terrible defensive outfield.

8:53am Okay, take a look at one of the latest Manny rumors:

Pirates get: Jeremy Hermida, Ryan Tucker, Mike Stanton
Boston gets: Jason Bay and John Grabow
Marlins get: Manny, with Boston paying all of his salary

This can't happen. First of all, the Red Sox are trading two months of Manny Ramirez for eight months of Jason Bay, plus Grabow. No. And as Dave Cameron points out, the Marlins are getting completely screwed; all I know about Stanton is his stat line, but the man is hitting .275/.352/.576 as an 18-year old in A ball.

8:59am The above deal could make a lot more sense if, say, Michael Bowden was going to Florida. Or if the Pirates were just getting Bowden instead of Stanton.

9:08am The Trade Washburn movement continues.

9:22am Griffey's recent +/- numbers:

2006 (CF): -29
2007 (RF): -8
2008 (RF): -11

This is going to end well.

9:25am I don't understand how anyone can report that the Manny deal is basically done...they just need to agree on prospects. Isn't pretty much every theoretical deal done except for the "agreeing on prospects" part?

9:27am I need to get to work. We'll start this thing back up at around 10:15.

10:39am Looks like that 10:15 estimate was overly optimistic. I don't think I missed much though. The Cardinals might trade Lohse?

10:42am Does anybody know what the White Sox are giving up for Griffey?

11:12am Danny Richar and Nick Masset, apparently.

11:14am I seriously doubt that Swisher for Street will happen, but that would be an awful deal for Chicago.

11:19am Rosenthal says that the Marlins aren't trading Tucker or Stanton, and the holdup in the deal is what Boston is sending to Pittsburgh.

11:43am Olney reports that the Rays have been in talks regarding both Bay and Dunn. Thanks for the update, Buster. I had no idea.

11:44am Cameron on the Rhodes trade.

12:01pm Nothing is happening.

12:07pm MLB.com says the Rays won't give up Price, Davis, Hellickson, or Brignac. Personally, I think they should trade all of them and go for it this year. But I'm aware that that's not a particularly reasonable stance.

12:21pm The Marlins are only 14th in Defensive Efficiency. I figured it'd be a lot lower. It probably helps that Hanley hasn't cost them 30 runs at short this year.

12:24pm "Pirates could be holdup in major deadline deal". This makes sense; Pittsburgh is much less desperate to do this deal than the other two parties.

12:26pm Heyman says that Manny has approved the trade, should the details be worked out. Not surprising.

12:31pm The Indians are rallying. They've tied it at 1.

12:36pm If that deal is actually on the table, the Red Sox should really just deal Manny for Matt Kemp and get this over with.

12:40pm The Cubs are now -145 to won the Central at Carib. This makes very little sense. If you're going to change the line, that's not nearly enough. Who is going to take the Brewers at EV?

12:43pm Were you wondering about Curt Schilling's take on all this? Yeah, me neither.

12:49pm Gammons says the Manny deal is "close to dead". Fantastic.

1:06pm Rosenthal tells us that the Yankees are pursuing Paul Byrd. Make it happen. Also, I don't think there are enough polls on that page.

1:10pm Tabs I currently have open: MLBTR, MLB.com, ESPN, Heyman, Rosenthal, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Fanhouse Live-Blog.

1:15pm When should I go get lunch? This is a big decision.

1:30pm The Post-Gazette page is taking forever to reload, but people are saying that the Pirates are now happy with there end of the deal, and the Marlins are holding this up over cash.

In other news, I'm going to lunch. Should be back by 2.

1:53pm Back.

Now Stark is saying that the Blue Jays are targeting Ibanez. Don't get that one.

1:57pm Now Rosenthal is saying the Manny talks are "dead".

1:59pm More ways to freeze your computer: BBTF's Sox Therapy, BPro's Roundtable.

2:04pm Heyman says the White Sox are after Washington's John Lannan. No idea what the price tag would be on him.

2:13pm Stark says the Bay to the Rays talks are back on. Yes.

2:15pm The Rays seem to be willing to part with Niemann and Brignac, but the Pirates want one of Davis/Price/Hellickson. Come on guys. You can work this out.

2:29pm Nothing is happening. At least I'm not hungry anymore.

2:46pm Goldstein: "Recent text messages indicate that Paul Byrd and Mark Kotsay are likely not going to go anywhere until next month's deadline with the waiver wire."

2:48pm Rosenthal an Heyman both haven't updated their blogs in 43 minutes. Thus the lack of updates here.

2:49pm The Indians are now up 6-4. Carmona pitched decently enough, and only walked one. The Best Player In The American League hit his 27th homer.

2:52pm Heyman says the Dodgers are back in the mix for Manny. Why he had to put this as its own article, rather than in his blog, I don't know. Kemp for Manny + Cash + someone worse than Buchholz/Bowden?

2:58pm Who the hell is Clay Rapada? And you wonder why the Tigers traded Pudge for bullpen help.

3:09pm BIG NEWS:

"With the three-way deal between the Pirates, Red Sox, and Marlins falling through, an MLB.com source says that the Rays are going to acquire right-handed hitting outfielder Jason Bay for Minor League prospects including shortstop Reid Brignac and right-hander Jeff Niemann. The Rays have not confirmed the deal."

3:10pm That'd be awesome. Excellent deal for the Rays if it's just those two. If it's true at all.

3:19pm The big rumor at the moment is Ibanez to the Mariners. If someone wants to explain that to me, that'd be great. Two centers of incompetence combining for a trade that makes no sense.

3:34pm Still no confirmation on Bay to Tampa.

3:35pm The White Sox are looking at Washington's Joel Hanrahan, rather than Lannan. Somebody screwed that up.

3:36pm And the Indians are victorious.

3:38pm Goldstein on Kemp for Manny: "This deal is not available. I repeat. This deal is not available."

3:39pm The Cubs are up 5-0 on the Brewers, Edmonds has homered twice. First the Brewers sweep four @STL, and now this. Guess we've clearly established the rank in the NL Central.

3:42pm MLB.com is now backtracking on their initial Bay to Tampa report. Terrible.

4:00pm Well, the deadline has arrived. Trades can still be announced, obviously.

4:01pm Stark is reporting that Ibanez isn't going to be traded.

4:03pm Rosenthal:

"The three-way Manny Ramirez blockbuster may be back on, with Pirates outfielder Jason Bay headed to the Red Sox, sources say.

The Rays were also in talks to acquire Bay in the minutes leading to Thursday's 4 p.m. ET non-waiver deadline, but one source has said that the Tampa-Pittsburgh deal is off "unless a miracle happens.""

I don't know what to think anymore.

4:12pm And now Rosenthal says the Manny trade is dead again.

4:13pm And now MLB.com is reporting that the Rays will not get Bay. Great work, Bill Chastain. Seriously. Awesome job.

4:20pm MLB.com is reporting--not that it means anything-- that Bay is going to end up with the Dodgers.

4:22pm According to the BBTF commenters (197, 199), Gordon Edes was on NESN saying that Manny has been traded. No idea what's going on at the moment.

4:27pm Boston.com's server is down. Manny has broken the internets.

4:28pm Heyman says Manny to Dodgers?

4:33pm Bay to the Sox, Manny to the Dodgers?

4:38pm Rosenthal:

Manny Ramirez has been traded to the Dodgers in a three-team blockbuster, pending the approval of the commissioner's office, according to a source with knowledge of the deal.

Pirates outfielder Jason Bay is headed to the Red Sox. The Pirates will receive Andy LaRoche and right-hander Bryan Morris from the Dodgers and outfielder [Brandon] Moss and releiver Craig Hansen from the Red Sox.

The Red Sox will pay all of the approximately $7 million remaining on Ramirez's contract.

4:43pm On the field, this looks like an excellent trade for the Sox. That's probably made possible because they're paying all of Manny's salary though.

4:48pm MLB.com has started deleting blog posts--like the Bay to Dodgers one--but don't worry, I have the screen grabs.

5:04pm Well, that looks like it. I think I'm going to go home, and have a full post on the trade up in a couple hours. Thanks for stopping by. I'm exhausted.

July Moves by Eventual WS Champs

As the non-waiver trade deadline has passed, I thought I'd take a look at what the eventual World Series champions have done before recent trade deadlines.

2006: St. Louis Cardinals

7/5- Traded Terry Evans to ANA, received Jeff Weaver
7/30- Traded Hector Luna to CLE, received Ron Belliard

Record on 7/31- 58-46 (.558)

Rest of season- 25-32 (.439)

Weaver wasn't particularly good after they acquired him (5-4, 5.18 ERA, 83.3 IP, 45 K), but he was fantastic in October (2.43 ERA in five starts).

Belliard was terrible, both in the regular season (.237/.295/.371) and October (.240/.283/.260).

The Cardinals didn't improve a whole lot at the deadline (as can be seen in their .439 W% afterwards, although there are obviously other contributing factors), but Weaver certainly gave them a boost in the playoffs.

2005: Chicago White Sox

7/31- Traded Ryan Meaux (minors) to SDP, received Geoff Blum

Record on 7/31- 67-35 (.657)
Rest of season- 32-28 (.533)

Chicago was pretty quiet at the deadline (they did have a 14.5 game lead in the Central at this point). Blum didnt help in his 95 regular season ABs (.200/.232/.274). He only got two at bats in the postseason, but his HR to win Game 3 against the Astros made the trade worthwhile.

"Maury Wills once told me that therewill come a point in my career when everyone in the ballpark will know that I have to steal a base, and I will steal that base. When I got out there, I knew that was what Maury Wills was talking about." -Dave Roberts

2004: Boston Red Sox

7/31- Traded John Hattig to TOR, received Dave Roberts
7/31- Traded Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton to CHC; received Doug Mientkiewicz from MIN, Orlando Cabrera from MON

Record on 7/31- 56-45 (.554)

Rest of season- 42-19 (.689)

Finally a team that a) did something at the deadline, and b) improved the the second half.

Roberts was OK in August and September (.256/.330/.442, 5 SB, 2 CS). And despite not getting an AB in October, he managed to alter the course of history, so I think this trade has to be considered a success.

Mientkiewicz didn't hit at all, but did go 4/9 in the playoffs, also serving as a late-inning defensive replacement.

Cabrera hit .294/.320/.465 over the last two months of the year, and was good in the postseason, with a .373 OBP, four doubles, and 8 RBIs.

Obviously, the idea of the Mientkiewicz and Cabrera acquisitions was to improve the team's defense, which is exactly what happened.

2003: Florida Marlins

7/11- Traded Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Snare, and Will Smith (minors) to TEX, received Ugueth Urbina

Record on 7/31- 59-49 (.546)

Rest of season- 32-22 (.593)

Two big additions obviously didn't come via trades: Willis (14-6, 3.30, Rookie of the Year, although he struggled in two starts before being moved to the pen for the WS) and Cabrera (walk-off HR in ML debut, 3 HR in NLCS, and he's just generally really good).

Although the life paths of Gonzalez and Urbina have been quite different since, in the 2003 Marlins benefited tremendously from this trade, as he had a 1.41 ERA in 38.1 IP down the stretch, and was effective in October (13 IP, 14 K, 3.46 ERA)

As a whole, this team obviously looked a lot different in October than it did in April. The Urbina trade was a small but significant part of that.


2002: Anaheim Angels

7/31- Traded PTBNL and Jorge Fabregas to MIL, received Sal Fasano and Alex Ochoa.

Record on 7/31- 63-42 (.600)
Rest of season- 36-21 (.632)


Fasano struck out in his only AB with the Angels. Ochoa had a 128 OPS+ in 65 ABs, then went 0/5 in October.

These were much simpler times, as the the Angels had a name that actually made sense, and a monkey captivated the nation.



2001- Arizona Diamondbackcs

7/11- Traded Bry Nelson to PIT, received Chris Petersen
7/25- Traded Jason Conti and Nick Bierbrodt to TBD, received Albie Lopez and Mike Difelice

Record on 7/31- 59-46 (.562)
Rest of season- 32-24 (.571)

Lopez was OK in 13 regular season starts (4.00 ERA), but not so much in the playoffs (0-2, 9.95 ERA).

Mike Difelice...well, he's Mike Difelice, he didn't do much of anything.

I guess Lopez was a small upgrade, but this was another year where the eventual champ didn't do a whole lot at the deadline.


2000: New York Yankees

6/20- Traded Jim Leyritz to LAD, received Jose Vizcaino and cash.
6/29- Traded Ricky Ledee, Jake Westbrook and Zach Day to CLE, received David Justice.
7/12- Traded Ed Yarnall, Drew Henson, Brian Reith and Jackson Melian (minors) to CIN, received Mike Frank and Denny Neagle.
7/21- Traded Ben Ford and Oswaldo Mairena to CHC, received Glenallen Hill.

Record on 7/31- 56-44 (.560)
Rest of season- 31-30 (.508)

Vizcaino did about what you would expect (.276/.319/.333), but actually got 17 ABs in the Subway Series (substituting for Knoblauch), even knocking in the winning run in Game 1.

Justice was great in August and September (.305/.391/.585), and despite a disappointing October, he did have 2 HR and 8 RBI in the ALCS against Seattle.

Neagle was bad (5.81 ERA) down the stretch, and 0-2 in the playoffs despite pitching decently (4.29 ERA).

I must admit, I don't remember this at all, but apparently Glenallen Hill was AWESOME with the Yankees in 2000, hitting .333/.378/.735 with 16 HR in 132 ABs. The magic did wear off in October, as he went 1/17. But still- 16 HR in 2+ months!

This Yankees team certainly upgraded before the deadline, as Justice and Hill gave their offense a huge boost down the stretch.

Interestingly, over this time period, only a few guys (Urbina, Justice, and Glenallen) made a big difference during the regular season. But the list of guys who had big impacts in October is significantly longer (Weaver, Blum, Roberts, Cabrera, Urbina, Vizcaino).

This is not surprising, as it isn't all that hard to make an "impact" in October (a well-timed SB or HR will do it, as we have seen), and we are looking at WS champs, so we would expect to be looking at individual players who came through in big moments in the playoffs.

What does this all mean? I guess that we shouldn't be surprised if we're all talking about Luis Castillo, Rob Mackowiak, Tadahito Iguchi, or Kenny Lofton about 12 weeks from now.

Pictures taken from here, here, here, and here and here.

Stats (and transactions) taken from Baseball Reference and Retrosheet.

NL Trade Winds

Along with the updated VWI Predicted Standings, I thought I'd write a little on each team's trade outlook.

New York: To replace John Valentin, the Mets acquired Luis Castillo from the Twins.

The Mets are still very much in the market for a reliever. They are said to be interested in Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, and Eric Gagne. Cordero and Rauch seem unlikely, as Nationals' GM Jim Bowden is completely insane (more on that below). Dotel is still on the market, and could probably be had at a reasonable price. As for Gagne, the Mets are on the list of teams he can be traded to without his consent. Gagne has various clauses in his contract that escalate his salary based on closer-based incentives.

Atlanta: Well, you know about Teixeira. Despite previous reports, it seems that their deal for Octavio Dotel isn't yet complete. But it still seems they're the frontrunners for Dotel. Word is that they're also talking to the Reds about Bronson Arroyo. Schuerholz seems to be going for broke here.

Philadelphia: The Phillies have already been busy, acquiring Kyle Lohse from the Reds, and getting Tadahito Iguchi from the White Sox to replace the injured Chase Utley. In his chat today, Baseball Prospectus' Joe Sheehan suggested that the Phillies' pitching situation is hopeless, and they should try to acquire someone like Morgan Ensberg, and hope they can win a lot of 9-8 games. Considering the available pitching, I'm not sure that's such a bad idea.

Washington: It must be very frustrating to be a Nationals fan this time of year. First, the whole Soriano mess last year, as they ended up losing him and getting only draft picks in return. Now, they have two legitimate relievers in Cordero and Rauch, but, as always, it looks like the asking price is too high. Apparently, Bowden asked for uberprospect Cameron Maybin from the Tigers in exchange for these two. Not surprisingly, Monday's Rumor Mill reports that the Nats have pulled out of the trade market because they didn't like the offers they were getting for Cordero and Rauch. Shocker.

Florida: Things have been fairly quite for the Marlins. Doesn't seem like they're even considering trading Willis at this point.

Milwaukee: Milwaukee has been rumored to both be in the market for Dye, and be part of a failed three-team trade with the Red Sox that would have landed Dye in Boston. At this point, it seems unlikely he'll end up in Milwaukee.

Getting Linebrink from San Diego was certainly interesting. It seems like Milwaukee gave up a lot for a guy who has a 5.48 ERA away from Petco this year. But if you look at it this way, it seems reasonable, as Linebrink will apparently be a type A free agent, so they would get two picks for him if he doesn't re-sign (assuming they offer him arbitration).

Milwaukee also made a minor move the other day, getting Seth McClung from Tampa.

Chicago: Well, they're not trading Pie. That's probably a good choice; the Cubs don't seem to be a team that needs to make a lot of changes, as they're 23-10 since June 22.

St. Louis: Isringhausen is a 10/5 guy, and has said he will veto any trade. That's too bad for the Cardinals, as they could get some serious value back for the 35 year-old closer. There has been speculation that recently acquired Troy Percival might be traded to the Indians. There has also been talk that the Phillies are looking at Anthony Reyes.

Houston: It doesn't look like Qualls or Lidge are going anywhere. After designating him for assignment, they have to figure out what to do with Ensberg.

The Astros have already made a significant move, trading Dan Wheeler to Tampa for Ensberg's replacement, Ty Wigginton.

Cincinnati: I doubt losing Kyle Lohse will upset Reds fans too much, as he was 4-12 with a 5.53 ERA in his last 16 starts. It looks very doubtful that the Reds will deal Dunn at this point- I really don't think other teams sufficiently appreciate his combination of power (27 HR) and walks (57).

Pittsburgh: The Pirates have apparently been shopping Shawn Chacon, but there doesn't seem to be much interest. Damaso Marte is also available.

San Diego: The Linebrink trade may have been strange, but the Padres were certainly dealing from a strength, as they have a 3.09 bullpen ERA. But it certainly wasn't popular in the clubhouse, as various players were very upset when they heard about it. They seem to be in the market for Mark Loretta and/or Morgan Ensberg.

Los Angeles: It seems like Penny and Lowe are both OK. Top prospect Clayton Kershaw was pulled from his start Monday night after one inning. This has fueled speculation, especially considering it has been rumored that the Dodgers are interested in Joe Blanton. But I find it very hard to believe that they would even consider trading Kershaw who, at 19, has struck out 127 in 91.1 IP in Class A this year. They have also been in talks with the Yankees about Scott Proctor.

Arizona: The Diamondbacks had previously been rumored to be interested in Dye, but it seems that those talks are over; it has also been suggested (forget where) that they could call up Justin Upton.

Colorado: The Rockies have been looking for a reliever, although they've been pretty quiet over the last few days.

San Francisco: There has been some interest in Matt Morris from other clubs. The average age of the Giants' everyday lineup is 35.9. Why they gave Sabean a two year extension is completely beyond me.

Pictures from here, here, here, and here.

A good deal of this information was complied from MLB Trade Rumors; that is definitely the place to go today.