Pre-Preseason College Hoops Top 10

There is a lot of information to go through here, so I thought I'd try to compile some of it, as well as add my own opinions. Among the various resources used for this were Katz's top 25, Lunardi's Bracketology, Pomeroy's site, Rivals' Prospect Rankings, and Wikipedia (always). The futures lines were gathered from Bodog, BetUS, Carib, and Sportsbook.

1. North Carolina (4.5-1, BetUS)
Katz #1, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 36-3 (14-2), Pomeroy #4. Lost to Kansas in the national semifinal.

Sophomore forward Alex Stepheson is transferring, to some school out west (he hasn't decided). I think the Tar Heels will survive the loss.

Since 2000, four teams have gotten at least 80% of the preseason first place votes in both the AP and ESPN polls, as I'm assuming UNC will. Two of those teams--'06-'07 Florida, and '03-04 UConn--won the title. The other two--'05-06 Duke, and '01-'02 Duke--lost in the Sweet 16. I don't know what that means, other than "Dook is teh suck" but it's interesting.

Carib currently has the Tar Heels at +250 to win the title, which is pretty absurd. What this ends up doing is putting a lot of value in some of the other teams, as you'll see below.

2. UCLA (18-1 at Carib)
Katz #3, Lunardi #2 seed
Last year: 35-4 (16-2), Pomeroy #3. Lost to Memphis in the national semifinal.

Give it up for Ben Howland, everybody. Losing two top 10 picks and still being this loaded is a neat trick. The incoming class, led by Jrue (pronounced Drew) Holiday, is supposed to be the best in the country. Add that to Collison, Shipp, and Aboya, and the pieces are in place for a fourth straight Final Four, which would be an astonishing accomplishment in this day and age.

The Bruins are getting some bonus points here for Howland. You don't have Defensive Efficiencies rankings of 3, 2, and 3 over a three-year stretch by accident. It's too bad, for both team and player, that Mbah a Moute's decided to stay in the draft. He could've been a solid contributor, and might end up going undrafted.

18-1 may be the best value on the board. Even if you don't agree with them at #2, it'd be hard to argue that they're not the second most likely team to get a #1 seed, given the relative weakness of their conference.

3. Pittsburgh (22-1, The Greek)
Katz #2, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 27-10 (10-8), Pomeroy #21. Lost to Michigan St. in the second round.

Well, I suppose they're the heavy favorite to win the Big East tournament at the moment.

Katz mentioned that Mike Cook may get a medical redshirt and be allowed to return for another year. That'd be big, since they're already set inside with Young and Blair, and at the point with Fields. It's tough to place them with that unknown, but I suppose that's why you don't rank teams in June.

22-1 isn't bad. The problem is this conference, which is going to be outrageously good. Four teams may end up deserving top two seeds, but that doesn't mean they'll all get them. For that reason, I don't know that I could pull the trigger on any of these Big East futures.

4. Duke (15-1, Carib)
Katz #6, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 28-6 (13-3), Pomeroy #8. Lost to West Virginia in the second round.

Considering they have six of their seven top contributors returning, you'd think it would be fairly easy to gauge how good this team is, but I have no idea. By the end of last year, they were much better than the public perception (no mystique!), but worse than their lofty Pomeroy rank. Problem is, that leaves a pretty big gap.

They lose Nelson, but their best recruit is 6'4 "slashing lefty" Elliot Williams, who sounds like an ideal replacement. Although that doesn't help their apparent weakness down low--I don't know if you've heard, but Duke lacked an "inside presence" last year.

I do know I wouldn't take them at 15:1.

5. Connecticut (20-1, Carib)
Katz #15, Lunardi #2 seed
Last year: 24-9 (13-5), Pomeroy #22. Lost to San Diego in the first round.

I was quite surprised to see that Katz has UConn so low. It sounds like they lose Stanley Robinson (Winn says he's "on the brink of academic ineligibility), which would be unfortunate. I really think a lot of the pessimism is caused by their weak finish last year, losing four of their last seven. But that included a two-point loss at Villanova, losing to a very good West Virginia team in the BE tournament, and losing to San Diego in OT without their point guard in the NCAAs. If, on February 20th, you would've told people that Thabeet was coming back, they would've been talking the Huskies up as preseason #1.

One thing UConn could stand to improve is their perimeter defense. With Thabeet inside, they held opponents to 40.4% from 2 (second in the country), but allowed 34.9% from 3 (153rd). Maybe the addition of Rice guard Kemba Walker (Rivals #14) will help in that regard.

6. Louisville (20-1, Carib)
Katz #5, Lunardi #3 seed
Last year: 27-9 (14-4), Pomeroy #6. Lost to North Carolina in the Elite 8.

They lose a lot of bigs--Padgett, Caracter, and Palacios--but are seemingly prepared for that with two Rivals top 20 recruits, 6'9" Samardo Samuels and 6'10" Terrence Jennings, incoming. The backcourt will be very strong, as they have everybody coming back. Earl Clark should make a big impact after electing to return, rather than entering the draft as a likely first round pick.

Maybe a couple guys will get hurt, they'll lose a bunch of games in November and December, and be undervalued for three months. That'd be fun.

7. Memphis (25-1, Carib)
Katz #7, Lunardi #1 seed
Last year: 38-2 (16-0), Pomeroy #2. Lost to Kansas in the national championship.

Like Duke, Memphis is tough to gauge, but for entirely different reasons. We know exactly how good they were last year--second best team in the country. But without Rose, CDR, and Dorsey though, that's not all that helpful.

Anderson, Dozier, Taggart, and Kemp return, joined by 6'5" guard, and Rivals #6 prospect, Tyreke Evans, and two more top 50 recruits. It's not clear how good the returning guys are, because they were only complimentary pieces last year, and recruits are always hard to value. So I'll play it safe and go with Katz here.

8. Texas (30-1, Carib)
Katz #13, Lunardi #3 seed
Last year: 31-7 (13-3), Pomeroy #9. Lost to Memphis in the Elite 8.

They would've been #2 if Augustin had come back, without a doubt.

Mercifully for all parties, Abrams is returning after considering going pro. Mason will take over at the point, which will clearly be a dropoff, although who knows how much. After a breakout 2008, Atchley returns for his senior season. This is a very strong team, which could contend for the title if Mason turns out to be a capable full-time point.

9. Gonzaga (50-1, BetUS)
Katz #9, Lunardi #4 seed
Last year: 25-8 (13-1), Pomeroy #30. Lost to Davidson in the first round.

That first round exit isn't looking so bad now, is it?

The Bulldogs got great news last week, when Pargo announced he'd return to school for his senior year. He returns to a pretty stacked team--a full year from Heytvelt, and everyone else except Pendergraft returning. If they're going to contend for a title, this is their year, as they'll lose (at least) Pargo, Heytvelt, and Downs after this season.

Probably because of their first round loss (and Heytvelt missing time), Gonzaga at 50-1 looks to be the second best value available here.

10. Notre Dame (50-1, Carib)
Katz #4, Lunardi #2 seed
Last year: 25-8 (14-4), Pomeroy #28. Lost to Washington St. in the second round.

They have a very good team coming back, but the defense is still a huge question mark. Notre Dame's Defensive Efficiency rankings over the last three years have been 120th, 49th, and 42nd, respectively. With the same personnel and coach as last year, I have a hard time putting them much higher than this. Should be a fantastic offense, though.

Carib seems to have the same reservations (defense, strong conference) about this team that I do, as their odds are a real outlier among Katz's rankings. If you think they're the fourth best team in the country, it's certainly worth it. Here, it's probably not.

Photo: NCAA.org.

A Post-Draft Deadline Look at the Big East

The deadline to declare for the draft was yesterday. There are still a lot of moving parts, since players have until June 16th to withdraw their name from consideration. We can make some reasonable assumptions though- most of of the top prospects have hired agents, and it's unlikely that guys like D.J. Augustin and Russell Westbrook will be returning. A full list of who has declared can be found here.

Since I couldn't care less about the NBA (although I do enjoy the draft), I'm primarily concerned with the guys that are coming back. The notables on this list include Earl Clark, Darren Collison, Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin, Hansbrough, Hasheem Thabeet, Terrence Williams, and Sam Young. The thing that jumped out at me is that the Big East is going to be very, very good next year. They dominate the previous list, and they won't lose as much to graduation as other conferences. A look at some of the top contenders:

Connecticut (20:1 at Sportsbook)
Declared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Nobody

UConn would be getting all kinds of hype if Price hadn't gotten hurt in the first round. They'd be a Sweet 16 team (at least) with almost everybody coming back (Wiggins transferred). As it happened, they're an afterthought with a rehabbing point guard. If Price makes a full recovery, with the ever-improving Thabeet returning, this should be a top 5 team.

Louisville (20:1)
Declared for draft: Derrick Caracter
Graduated: David Padgett, Juan Palacios

They return an excellent backcourt- Williams, Smith, Sosa, and McGee- and Earl Clark returning is huge. They lose a lot more than UConn, but were better to begin with. The big question is whether incoming freshmen Samardo Samuels (#9 on the Rivals 150, an "automatic double/double guy") and Terrence Jennings (#18) can replace the production they are losing inside.

Georgetown (20:1)
Delcared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Jonathan Wallace, Roy Hibbert, Patrick Ewing Jr.

Tough break for the Hoyas last week, as sophomore foward Vernon Macklin announced his intention to transfer. That's a big hit to their frontcourt, which was already going to struggle to replace Hibbert. A lot of Georgetown's success will depend on how good incoming freshman Greg Monroe (6'10", Rivals #8) is.


Pittsburgh (20:1)
Declared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Ronald Ramon, Keith Benjamin, Mike Cook

Sam Young and DeJuan Blair will be very tough inside. The lack of guards may be a problem, with three of their top four graduating (Fields is the fourth). With a potentially dominant combo inside, they won't need the guards to be all-world, but there are some holes to fill. Pitt doesn't look to have any highly touted recruits coming in.

Notre Dame (40:1)
Declared for draft: Nobody
Graduated: Rob Kurz

Ugh. I'm still bitter. Kurz is a significant loss inside, but they still have Harangody and Hillesland. Combine them with McAlarney, Tory Jackson and Ryan Ayers on the perimeter, and they might even win a road game. Seriously though, that is a very solid starting five. I just don't know if I can deal with another year of Harangody and Hansbrough being on ESPN three nights a week.

I won't give them their own paragraph, but if McNeal withdraws from the draft, Marquette will be a contender. The same is true for Donte Greene and Syracuse, although it seems unlikely that he would return.

At this point in the year, it usually seems like the quality of play is going to be down, since most of the guys we are familiar with are either graduating or heading to the NBA. With every other conference, I think this holds true, but not with the Big East, which looks to be the strongest conference heading into the upcoming season.

Regional Previews: West

Same disclaimers as yesterday: For the first round percentages, I averaged the Vegas lines and the Pomeroy numbers. For rounds 2-4, I adjusted the Pomeroy numbers slightly.


UCLA is favored by 32 in the first round. This is a lot, even for a 1-16 matchup. Is this is sign that the oddsmakers like UCLA? No. It is a sign that Mississippi Valley St. is really, really bad- Pomeroy has them 318th out of 341 D1 teams. From his preview: "Mississippi Valley State's chance of a title is one in 600 trillion." Nice.

Everyone is jumping on the Xavier bandwagon in the lower half of this region, since Duke has lost two of their last three games. Look, I love the Musketeers, but this is kind of silly. Duke has lost a couple games- @UNC, and against Clemson on a neutral court. Meanwhile, Xavier has lost two of their last five, both to Saint Joseph's. If you flip their schedule, Duke is probably 4-1 over Xavier's stretch, and Xavier is likely 1-2 over Duke's. Just something to keep in mind.

It was discussed in the East preview that the Sportsbook lines are unusually good because of UNC being so overvalued. Sadly, this does not hold true in the West, as UCLA's odds are more reasonable. There is still one that sticks out, however- the Aggies' Sportsbook odds are twice their true odds. As with Indiana, this is even after knocking down the Pomeroy odds, as I question whether Texas A&M is the 16th best team in the nation (although, looking at the teams below them, they're probably pretty close). Even with this conservative assumption, 60-1 looks great.

The potential match-up with UCLA in the second round will obviously be tough. But it's important to remember that if they get past the Bruins, the region really opens up. This is true for all the 8/9 teams, and probably contributes to the favorable odds. Breaking it down round-by-round, Pomeroy gives the Aggies only a 26% chance of winning in the second round (should they get there), but a 58.4% chance of winning their potential third game. This may be a little high, but I'm not too scared of UConn or Pitt, especially if aTm has already beaten UCLA, thus living up to their lofty Pomeroy rank.

I have not discussed the National Championship odds much. This is primarily because they're almost all terrible. It should be noted that Pomeroy does love Kansas at +525 (The Greek)- his 36.8% puts their true odds at an incredible +171. I honestly do not know what would get you better value in this situation- betting on the Jayhawks in each round, or taking the 5-1 odds. My guess would be the 5-1, but I am not sure.

I had a larger point here- right. Aside from the Jayhawks, almost all the NC odds are worthless. Let's take Indiana as an example. Sportsbook has their Final Four odds at 40-1; the best NC odds for them that I have seen are 125-1. This would imply that they have a 1 in 3 chance of winning the whole thing if they reach San Antonio. Considering that they would almost definitely be underdogs in both games, this is pretty unreasonable. Similar to longshots in conference tournaments, it's another inefficiency in the market- for all but the top teams, there is more value in the F4 odds than the traditional "Hoosiers to win it all" futures.

Somehow, I have barely mentioned #1 seed UCLA to this point. I have heard repeatedly that the Bruins got a great draw. To an extent, this is true- you certainly can't compare this region to the stacked East. But I think this claim is greatly exaggerated. Their first round draw is awesome, but that has very little effect. Texas A&M in the second round is more difficult than usual- in Pomeroy's words, the Aggies "will make UCLA's life interesting". Following this is a likely Sweet 16 game against UConn. I am not the Huskies' biggest fan, but a 4 seed seems to match their skill level. So in the first three games, it's actually more difficult than average.

The main reason people think this is a great draw is the region's "weak" two seed, Duke. But is this really true? Granted, the Blue Devils are a notch below UCLA- I actually think that the four one seeds are also the four best teams in the nation. But Duke isn't a 1, they're a 2. And I think they compare reasonably with the other 2s. Duke may not have won their conference tournament, but neither did Tennessee, and the ACC is miles ahead of the SEC this season. I will talk about this more in the South preview, but I think the perception of Texas would be very different if they played @Kansas during the regular season, rather than hosting the Jayhawks. I can't really argue for the Blue Devils being better than Georgetown- the Hoyas have been pretty impressive over the last month- but really don't think that having Duke as the 2 in their bracket makes UCLA's draw particularly special.

For the same reasons that I advised against picking the USC-Kansas St. winner to beat Wisconsin, I wouldn't be so quick to put the West Virginia-Arizona winner in the Sweet 16. Each could pull the upset, and I think both teams are underseeded as far as talent goes. But that's exactly the problem- they're both good, and they have to play each other in the first round. Meanwhile, Duke is -3600 in their round 1 game against Belmont. There is a reason that Pomeroy- whose ratings agree that the Wildcats and Mountaineers are underseeded- has Duke at 67% to get to the second weekend, while Arizona and West Virginia are each around 16%.

Pick: Duke
Upset (+6 or worse): San Diego
Scary team (four seed or worse): Texas A&M (there's no shortage of these- I also strongly considered WVU and U of A)

Related:
Midwest Region Round 1 Leans [The Money Line Journal]
South Region Round 1 Leans [The Money Line Journal]

This Week's Links (3/3-3/7)

UConn lost to Providence last night. I do not know why everyone is (was?) so high on them. Yes, Thabeet is a defensive force inside- they are first in the country in 2-point FG defense. But their perimeter defense is terrible. Their offense is okay- Price and Thabeet are very good, Adrien is solid, Robinson is athletic but uninspiring. Their undoing last night was 21 turnovers. Depends on the draw, of course, but I'd be shocked if they win more than two games in the tourney.

Favre Moses Kinsaul's parents are mean. Or maybe just dumb.

When something in the NBA catches my attention, you know it must be impressive: LeBron went absolutely nuts against the Knicks. This was after talking to Jay-Z in the middle of the game.

Posnanski has been doing some very amusing AL division previews: East, Central, West. Here's Oakland's:

To the Moneyball man go of all the spoils
The most famous GM on American soil
But this part ain’t funny
He’s still got no money
And a roster that’s filled with ex-Royals

The Indians are not on Sunday Night Baseball in the first half of the season. But at least we all get to enjoy the BBTN team of Ravech, Kruk, Steve, and EY. Remember when that show used to be insightful? That was a long time ago.

FJM's Junior has a great idea for the Mets' 2008 slogan:

How about a billboard that just shows Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds in real time? That would be a good slogan.

I'm serious.

Final Four Odds

Sportsbook has posted Final Four odds for 25 teams (H/T: Rob). Before the brackets come out, it is very difficult to handicap this kind of thing, because a team's chances are so dependent on both their seed and their draw. That is not going to stop me from trying, obviously.

The first column is the team's projected seed. These are mostly just taken from Parrish, but I made a few slight adjustments. That is followed by the team name, and their odds at Sportsbook. The last two columns are what I think their true chance of making the F4 is, along with what their odds should be in that case.

Odds I consider to be very good wagers are in green. Good wagers are in blue, and terrible wagers are in red. The black odds range from neutral to poor. Here is the first half:

Memphis being +200 really surprised me. They are almost certainly going to be a 1 seed, meaning they have a pretty easy path to the S16 (giving them about an 80% chance of making it that far). They will then be significant favorites against the 4/5 seed they will likely play, and again favorites in the Elite 8. Clearly Sportsbook has UCLA, UNC and Kansas as the top 3 teams in the country, and I don't disagree with that assessment. But I don't think Memphis is that far behind, and they will likely have seeding on their side.

Seeding plays an very big role in this. I know they don't have the reputation of Duke or Texas, but Xavier is just as good as those teams, and they will likely all be 2 seeds- there should not be such a large discrepancy in their odds.

Stanford is in a similar situation, except it is likely that they will have a 3 seed rather than a 2. That makes them not quite as attractive as Xavier, but at +650, it's still worth considering.

No 3 seed should be +300. You know I must feel that way if I have Louisville at +344. The four games you have to win are just too difficult. Assuming you get past the 14, you still have to beat a 6, a 2, and a 1, in theory. Except for the elite teams in the nation, nobody has better than a 25% chance of doing that. And Georgetown does not fall under the category of "elite team" this year.

UConn, a likely 4/5 seed, at +400 is even worse. They will play a 4/5 in the second round, and then the top two seeds after that. A 20% chance of winning those three games? Not even close.

On to the longshots:

Most of these are terrible. The Arizona and Kansas St. odds are particularly brutal. These are teams that will likely end up in 8-9 games, where their chances are barely better than a toss-up. Then, in the second round, they face a top seed. Kansas St. should be about +800 to reach the Sweet 16, not the F4.

Wisconsin at +800 is intriguing. They are a 3 seed, and a legit one at that. Barring a huge upset, they are going to finish 16-2 in the Big Ten. I know the B10 isn't very good this year, but unless you think it is really atrocious, the conference's best team at 8:1 to reach the F4 seems pretty good.

The odds for Marquette and Purdue are probably about right, but stick out because the others are so bad. I do not think Sportsbook gave seeding enough weight in their analysis. It is completely unreasonable for an 8 seed to have better odds than a 3, unless that 8 seed is about 15 points better, which is certainly not the case with Arizona and Purdue. It is highly unlikely that the Boilermakers lose their first round game against a 14. Taking that into account, you are getting about 18:1 that they will beat a 6 seed that is probably equally talented, and then two teams that are better than them. It's unlikely, but +2200 is not bad for them.

P.S.- 15 of you have voted on the Indians' under? I hope you guys aren't betting on this stuff, because you *clearly* don't know what you are talking about.

The Best Wins Of The Year

Tonight's craziness inspired me to compile the following list of the best wins to date this season. This isn't a list of the biggest upsets, or most impressive blowouts- it's the wins that will look best to the selection committee, three weeks from now.

The spread for each game is in parenthesis. Those are just for reference though- that didn't really factor into the list at all.

1. Tennessee 66, Memphis 62 (TEN -6.5)
Prior to this, Memphis had won their three big home games (Georgetown, Arizona, Gonzaga) by an average of 12 points, and had won 47 straight at the FedEx Forum. All their streaks ended tonight, as the Volunteers surprisingly outrebounded the Tigers by 15. Chris Lofton shot just 2/11 from the floor, but Tyler Smith (6/11, 16 pts), Wayne Chism (13 pts, 3/5 from 3, even banked one in), and JP Prince (5/8, 13 pts) picked up the slack offensively. It should be noted that freshman Derrick Rose was extremely impressive, carrying the Memphis offense at times. Although asking out of the game because he was winded with five minutes left was kind of weak.

2. Maryland 82, North Carolina 80 (UNC -18)
This was a real shocker, and remains UNC's only loss with Ty Lawson. The Terps are tough when their bigs, Bambale Osby and James Gist, are playing well. That's what happened here, as they combined for 34 points and 18 boards. But the key was Maryland's defense (which Osby and Gist certainly contributed to)- they held Carolina to 42.4% eFG%, tying their lowest mark of the year.

3. Texas 63, UCLA 61 (UCLA -10)
I originally had USC's win @UCLA here, before realizing that Mbah a Moute sustained a concussion in the first half of that one. The Bruins were at full strength against the Longhorns, but were held to 6/21 from beyond the arc. DJ Augustin uncharacteristically had six turnovers, but did shoot 8/15 from the field (19 points). Damion James added 19 points and 10 boards.

4. Tennessee 82, Xavier 75 (XAV -3.5)
Bet you didn't expect to see this one here. In 15 other home games, Xavier has outscored their opponents by an average of 24 ppg. Think about that for a second- the average score of their home wins is 82-58. Despite being outrebounded 37-25 in this one, the Volunteers took 13 more shots from the field- this was made possible by 21 Xavier turnovers. Lofton (3/12, 9 pts) was off in this one, too. But, similar to tonight, T. Smith, Chism and Prince picked up the slack, combining for 47 pts on 19/31 shooting.

5. Connecticut 68, Indiana 63 (Indiana -8.5)
This was easily the most impressive victory during UConn's 10-game win streak, which ended this afternoon. Playing without Jerome Dyson (who returns on Tuesday) and Doug Wiggins, the Huskies outrebounded Indiana, 41-26, and held them to 37% shooting (although they did shoot 11/20 from 3). Hasheem Thabeet had an extremely odd line for a man his size (7'3)- 38 minutes, only 5 rebounds, but 12 points on 6/7 shooting. Jeff Adrien and Stanley Robinson helped him out on the boards, with 11 rebounds apiece.

Photo: Yahoo!

The Arizona over got 27 of 48 votes (56%). Atlanta is up now, and will be up until there are at least 45 votes. I think that's the best way to do it on the weekends.

NCAA Futures Odds (Kind Of)

This post was originally going to be about good NCAA futures odds on various sites. But when I actually sat down to write it, I realized there isn't much out there right now.

There was some decent value out there a couple weeks ago. Xavier was recently 100:1, but the best you can do on them right now is 60:1 at Carib. Kansas St. was 80:1 right after they beat KU, now they're around 30:1. Wisconsin's currently at 75:1 at Carib, which is pretty solid.

Basketball Prospectus favorite Louisville is 20:1 at Carib. This isn't bad, but considering the rest of their schedule (@Pitt & Georgetown, vs. ND & Villanova), I think it might be smart to wait on them. There's a decent chance they lose a couple of those games and (absurdly) fall out of the rankings, possibly allowing their odds to drop to somewhere in the range of 30:1.

Anyway, what this became is an analysis of teams that are currently overvalued, as shown by their unprofitable odds. I understand this isn't very helpful from a wagering perspective, but hopefully it is interesting nonetheless.

USC- #8 seed, Pomeroy #27, 30:1 at Sportsbook
I'll be the first one to tell you how good the Pac-10 is this year. But it is kind of ridiculous for the fifth best team in the conference (fourth if we're being generous) to be 30:1 to win it all. This may have been reasonable three weeks ago, when they had just beaten UCLA and Oregon on the road, but not now, as they currently sit at 6-6 in conference play. Guard Daniel Hackett, USC's assist leader and second most efficient scorer, may not play again this year. Without him, USC has some serious depth issues- they made only one substitution in Sunday's loss to UCLA. With the talent they have, a turnaround is not impossible, but the Trojans' current concern should be making the tournament, rather than winning it.

Pittsburgh- #8 seed, Pomeroy #26, 50:1 at Sportbook
Two months ago, Pitt was 11-0 and #6 in both polls. Sure, they hadn't played anyone who was actually good, that's not the point. Things were really looking up after they beat Duke at MSG. Since then, the Panthers are just 8-6, including ugly road losses at Dayton and Marquette, and a shocking home loss to Rutgers. Part of it has been injuries, but Mike Cook isn't coming back this season, and the Marquette loss came in Fields' first game back. Pitt's early reputation exceeded its actual talent, because they played well against a weak schedule and beat Duke on a buzzer three. The odds still haven't caught up reflect how much of a longshot they really are to win it all.

Michigan St.- #6 seed, Pomeroy #24, 40:1 at Sportsbook
The Spartans got off to an impressive 14-1 start, with wins against Missouri, BYU, Texas, and Purdue, and their only loss coming against UCLA. Then they scored 36 points in a loss to Iowa. So that wasn't good. But they followed that up by winning five straight and moving to 7-1 in the Big Ten. Then came the loss to Penn St. If you're supposed to be at the top of the B10 this year and find yourself losing, even on the road, to Iowa and Penn St., something is wrong. Last week MSU had two road games against teams that are playing like they're the cream of the B10 crop, Purdue and Indiana, and they lost them both, including an uninspiring 19-point defeat at the hands of the Hoosiers. Right now it looks like Sparty is behind those two and Wisconsin in the B10, and that conference just isn't good enough this year for its #4 team to be 40:1 to win the championship.

UConn- #3 seed, Pomeroy #21, 9:1 at Bodog
I am picking on the Huskies a little bit here, because almost all of Bodog's futures odds are terrible (for example, Kansas St. is currently 12:1). Obviously they have been playing well- their win over DePaul on Tuesday was their 10th straight W. But they have been extremely fortunate over this stretch, winning games by margins of 1 (twice), 2 (twice), 5 (twice) and 6. That's seven of the 10 wins by an average of only 3.1 points. This is how teams get overrated- they are fortunate late in games, and people focus on the fact that they won. The rest of UConn's Big East schedule is remarkably easy, with the only tough games coming at Villanova and home vs. West Virginia. It looks like they'll end up with a 2 or 3 seed, but I can't see them being one of the best teams in the country.

After jumping out to a 41-2 lead (!), the Seattle under ended up winning 82-22 (79%). Detroit poll is up.

Blogpoll: Week Fourteen

The full blogpoll is here, my ballot was as follows.

Indiana is screwed. The Sampson mess, the Butch three- not a good day for the Hoosiers. I've thought they were a little overrated for a few weeks now- they're now 9-2 in the B10, but they could easily be 7-4 or even 6-5. But now, if they lose to MSU and Purdue at home in the next week (both at home), it'll all be blamed on the coach. Not that that situation doesn't have any effect, but it's probably not the whole story.

UConn is incredible- tonight makes eight in a row (gotta love Thabeet's line of 4pts, 10 boards, 6 blocks). They were a 4 in Bracketology this week- they may even get bumped up a line on Monday. Their last seven BE games really aren't that tough- they play at USF, Villanova, and Providence, and host West Virginia, but will likely be favored in every game the rest of the way.

Louisville should certainly be higher (although I'm closer than some). It's always tough to know what to do with teams that were missing key players early in the season. Despite having one more loss than Georgetown, they've been the best Big East team in conference games. They have a much more difficult schedule than the Huskies, with games @Pitt & Georgetown, and home games against Notre Dame and Syracuse.

Drake lost in Carbondale tonight, but I won't drop them that far next week. You are allowed to lose once every couple months, I think.