NBA Dunk Contest Preview

I have watched probably two NBA games all year, but I won't miss the dunk contest on Saturday night. Granted, it's been fairly weak in recent years, but I've been hooked since Carter won in 2000. The opportunity for someone to do something completely absurd always intrigues me. Anyway, here are the odds:


Dwight Howard is the clear favorite, after getting screwed last year. Here is a teaser video of what he has planned for this year- the first and last dunks are pretty impressive. Rudy Gay has challenged him to raise the rim to 12 feet, saying he'll follow Howard and do the same dunk. This seems impressive, but he's actually only two inches shorter than Howard, and his arms are quite long. Gay also posted a video on YouTube, asking for fans to submit ideas.

The annoying thing about the dunk contest is that there are no longshots; one in four odds on a contest involving four people isn't particularly inspiring. It's strange that the tallest guy is the favorite, since it just doesn't look as impressive when the really tall guys do it. He does have the most name recognition (I guess average 22 and 15 will do that). But Gay is ridiculously athletic, and has stirred up this little controversy- he's probably a good bet at 3:1.

By the way, both these sites have odds on the three-point shootout, skills challenge, and game MVP as well. But who cares, really. And Bodog is strangely "down for regularly scheduled maintenance" at the moment, which seems like an odd thing to be doing at 10pm on Thursday night.

Photo: SI.

Tim Morris Is Mean

The following video is from Sunday's UCLA-Washington game (the Huskies upset the Bruins, 71-61). Washington's Tim Morris is attempting to inbound the ball in the last minute of the game. Alfred Aboya is defending him. The Huskies have no timeouts left (this is important).



I understand the necessity to do something in that situation. And yeah, I guess in some sense it is a "smart play", as the announcer notes. But it really seems unnecessary to wind up and throw the ball off the guy's face as hard as you can. Why not throw it off his knee, or thigh, like, you know, everybody else in the history of basketball has chosen to do? That would be a similarly smart move. It is almost an unnatural reaction to throw it off his face.

Basketball Prospectus' John Gasaway sums up the future ramifications of this play very nicely:

(Kudos to the Huskies' Tim Morris, by the way, for virtually ensuring that the Rules Committee will make at least one change in the offseason: it will no longer be permissible for a player to avoid a five-second call on an inbounds pass by simply throwing the ball, hard, off the defender's face. This shall be called The Morris Rule. It didn't come soon enough for Alfred Aboya.)

I really do hope it is called The Morris rule. Seems like this should be a flagrant foul- it's in the same category as fouling someone hard while having no intention of going for the ball on a fast break. We do not want college basketball players to start being able to save on toothpaste.

H/T: RMMB.

This Week's Links (1/28-2/1)

Breaking down some NHL futures odds, and some Super Bowl prop bets that are actually football related.

"Chris Berman Is Somewhat Perturbed With The Help". Very old, but worth watching.

Our old friend Marty Noble, at it again.

Larry Johnson advises a blogger on how to get rich.

Gasaway with a great analysis of conference play thus far. How is Duke still so underrated? (I understand the answer is that they don't have anyone taller than 6'8", but still- it's the Dookies!)

Scott Van Pelt is a funny dude.

Brian Bannister is an interesting dude.

Keith Law's Top 100 prospects. I miss the days of the Indians having a good farm system.

Lozo gets interviewed.

I thought this was pretty funny (Sheehan on the Twins, pre-Santana trade):

"You can win, in baseball, if you have a donut-hole construction—lots of middle, nothing on the outside. You cannot win as a donut."

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLII Props

There are plenty of props concerning the game on the field next Sunday. Who will score first, who'll be the MVP, even who will commit the first holding penalty. But it's the Super Bowl- who cares about the actual game? There are much more important things going on.

I looked around a few places for the best non-football props, but ended up only needing two sites- BetUS and Bodog. The following are the seven most ridiculous types of props I found. I tried to break down what the best wagers are, but I probably failed miserably.

7. How long will it take Jordin Sparks to sing the National anthem? (Bodog)

Over 1m42s (-115)
Under 1m 42s (-115)

Sparks sang the Anthem at last year's NBA Finals. It's on YouTube- it looks like she took 1:41. Darren Rovell analyzed this same line for Billy Joel last year, and noticed this:

"I looked at every Super Bowl national anthem YouTube could offer me. And guess what? Not one singer, at least what's online, has ever done the National Anthem at the Super Bowl under 1:44."

He goes on to note that Cher did it in 1:45, Mariah Carey in 1:55, Faith Hill at 2:00, and Beyonce in 2:09. These Super Bowl performers apparently add some extra "yeahs" and such- it looks like the Over would be a decent look here.

6. Commercial Props (Bodog)

BetUS has some boring ones, like the first ad during halftime (Bud Light and Go Daddy are both 4:1). But Bodog got creative:

Which Super Bowl commercial will have a higher rating on USA Today's annual Ad Meter?
Budweiser 1:2
Go Daddy.com 3:1
Pepsi 6:1
McDonald's 9:1
Victoria Secret 8:1
Other 2:1

Looks like Budweiser is the reigning champ. I'm assuming Budweiser includes Bud Light; those two combined to have six of the top seven ads last year. So it makes sense that Bud is the overwhelming favorite.

5. TV Broadcast Props (Bodog)

How Many Times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's name during the Broadcast?
Over 5.5 (-125)
Under 5.5 (-115)

How many times will Archie Manning be shown on the TV Broadcast?
Over 4.5 (-150)
Under 4.5 (+110)

Will the entire Fox pre-game team pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl?
Yes -180
No +140

I don't really understand the Peyton prop. If Buck says "Eli's brother, Peyton, won the Super Bowl last year. Manning...", does that count as one or two? I don't know.

For the pre-game picks prop, I'd have to go with "No". How many people are there on the set, four? I would think one of them will go against the grain, if only to make things interesting. Terry Bradshaw picked the Giants last week, so he'd be the one to do it.

Update: Lozo makes an excellent point in the comments:

"no. 5 being no is a lock. only because whoever works the giants locker room after the game will take the giants. that's the only reason bradshaw took the giants last week, and he'll probably do it again this week."

4. '72 Dolphins Props (Bodog)

If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the '72 Dolphins during the Trophy Presentation?
Yes (-135)
No (-105)

Will Don Shula be on the field to shake Belichick's hand after the game?
Yes +200
No -300

Why would Kraft mention the '72 Dolphins? They really haven't done anything to deserve a mention. I'd lean towards "No" on that first one.

I'm assuming Shula lives in Florida? Why would he go to the game in Arizona just to shake Belichick's hand? I guess that's why "No" is -300.

3. Who will the MVP of the Game thank first? (Bodog)

Teammates, 2:1
God, 5:2
Family, 2:1
Coach, 5:1
Doesn't thank anyone, 6:1

I looked around Google for Brady's acceptance speech the two times he's won the award, but couldn't find it. I actually think betting on the first two wouldn't be a bad idea, I would imagine it'd end up being one of those.

2. Colour of liquid winning Head Coach is doused in (BetUS)

Transparent +400
Green +500
Yellow +300
Orange +125
Red +300
Blue +1000
Purple +1600

I don't really have any insight to add here. This one is pretty awesome, though.

1. Tom Petty Props (BetUS)

Petty will be performing at halftime. There are the standard props on this sort of thing- what song he will open with (Running Down A Dream is the favorite at BetUS), and end with (Free Falling is 2:3 at Bodog). But those pale in comparison to the random props BetUS has thought up:

Tom Petty...
smokes a joint during half time show +2500
has a wardrobe malfunction +10000
streaks field during play +50000
will smash a guitar onstage +5000
will curse during performance +8000

I'm confused as to how the joint prop is the most likely. Tom Petty cannot smoke a joint during his performance. It's just not a possibility. Also, what exactly would a Tom Petty ""wardrobe malfunction" consist of? I don't think I want to know.

He could curse. But because of the "wardrobe malfunction" thing, they've got a delay now. So if he curses, but it gets edited out, what happens? There are just so many unanswered questions here.

Update: I e-mailed BetUS about the cursing thing, here's the response I got:

"Dear Jacob, Thank you for your question. For it to be graded as a winner, Tom Petty cursing needs to be shown either on tv, on the newspaper the day after, internet, etc. The point is, it needs to be of public knowledge that he did for you to win that bet. Regards, Rick Account Manager"

I think this is good news for this bet. It'll be all over the internet if he curses, even if it's not broadcast.

Update 2: The odds on two of the Tom Petty props have been adjusted. The joint one is now +4000, and cursing is down to +5000. I'd like to think that this post had something to do with that.

Update 3: Smokes a joint is now 100:1, cursing is down to 20:1, and all is right in the world.

This Week's Links (11/19-11/23)

Andrea Kremer, consummate professional. [via TBL]

UmpBump interviews NL MVP voter Paul Hagen, whose thoughts on David Wright are predictably silly:

"I think an argument can be made for David Wright. However, I have to say that in the years I vote, I put a lot of emphasis on the word “Valuable.” To me, that connotes intangibles. I think that’s what differentiates the MVP from, say, a “Player of the Year” award. And it would be hard for me to find that much value in a player who was part of one of the most epic collapses in baseball history.

My top four, as I recall, were Rollins, Holliday, Fielder, Chipper Jones."

Emphasis mine. Because, you know, the overwhelming intangibles of Fielder and Jones allowed the Brewers and Braves to win so many more games than the Mets.

Maurice Jones-Drew absolutely obliterates Shawne Merriman.

Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon is upset about Delmon Young's RoY showing:

"It’s really disturbing. I can see him not winning the award, but leaving him off eight ballots is just a sign of personal prejudice."

The Cy Young clause in Schilling's contract could cause some issues.

This Week's Links (10/15-10/19)

The following may be the best opening sentence I've ever read.

"I've come to the conclusion that I should never, ever, ever turn the sound on when watching a baseball game on television."

"I always will believe that during the 1996-2001 dynasty, Mariano Rivera was the only uniformed member of the organization more important to the Yankees' success than Torre." Really, Buster?

I thought Wedge was insane to leave CC in for the 7th; The DiaTribe and Posnanski agree.

Nate Silver on the Yankees' offer to Torre.

Dan Patrick signs on with Sports Illustrated.

The e-mail from "Jacob" on FJM the other day? Yeah, that was me. I'm pretty cool.

Posnanski:

"...I was sitting in the front row, and Knight began what was supposed to be a press conference about Texas Tech basketball by talking about the baseball playoffs...Then he said, 'Anybody got any questions about the American League Championship Series.' Well, you know me...I’m not going to pass that up."

Patrick Ewing, Jr. teaching Jerry Rice how to do the "Superman" dance.

If you missed the "Shopping Penguin" video in one of the live-blogs, here it is.

Luke Winn checks in with preseason reports from Chapel Hill and Durham.

There Was A Second Game Last Night?

The plan:
The reality:
The result:

PostmanE is the only reason this post exists.