Comments on Vegas Watch: 2008 NFL Wins Over/Unders

why is the juice so high on some teams (BUFF) and ...

2008-06-22T08:14:00.000-04:00

why is the juice so high on some teams (BUFF) and so much lower on others?

good stuff. i was wondering one thing.since the vi...

2008-05-18T15:41:00.000-04:00

good stuff. i was wondering one thing.

since the vig is so crazy, is there such a thing as determining the "true" over/under for what vegas is thinking? for example, indy is at 11 but you have to pay more to take the under than the over, which means vegas doesn't really think indy should win 11 games ... right?

so is there a way to calculate based on the vig how many games vegas thinks indy really "should" win, i.e. 10.5 games?

thanks

As a Bills fan, I hate to agree - but under 7.5 (+...

2008-05-13T16:40:00.000-04:00

As a Bills fan, I hate to agree - but under 7.5 (+) all that lovely juice is probably a good play.

Well if Kitna is on board for 10, 7 should be a lo...

2008-05-13T16:17:00.000-04:00

Well if Kitna is on board for 10, 7 should be a lock.

Very cool post. I like BUF under 7.5 @ +150.

2008-05-13T14:56:00.000-04:00

Very cool post.

I like BUF under 7.5 @ +150.

Ted,Kitna's not afraid to pay -140.http://www.usat...

2008-05-13T13:41:00.000-04:00

Ted,

Kitna's not afraid to pay -140.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/lions/2008-05-06-kitna-guarantee_N.htm?csp=34

I need John Kitna's prediction before I bet the Li...

2008-05-13T12:46:00.000-04:00

I need John Kitna's prediction before I bet the Lions over.

Fast,Have you seen the schedule?List of games wher...

2008-05-13T09:50:00.000-04:00

Fast,

Have you seen the schedule?

List of games where the Packers are likely to be under dogs:

vs. Dallas
at Tampa
at Seattle
vs Indy
at Tenny
at Minnesota
at New Orleans
at Jacksonville

It will be tough for them to win 9 games this year.

That Packer line is waaaaay too low. I mean, yeah...

2008-05-13T01:34:00.000-04:00

That Packer line is waaaaay too low. I mean, yeah, they lost Favre but, like, you know, it's not like each pass he was completing was twenty yard out patterns in double coverage and not six yard slants and hitches.

That's a good question, Rob. I was hoping to figu...

2008-05-12T23:20:00.000-04:00

That's a good question, Rob. I was hoping to figure that out at some point. It has to do with the standard deviation of each team's win totals.

Rob, it depends on the sport because of the percen...

2008-05-12T23:18:00.000-04:00

Rob, it depends on the sport because of the percentage of the time a certain spread pushes, but ML did a light assessment of that question not too long ago that might help you towards your answer.

http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/?p=396

Vegas-Do you know the math, for example, on what e...

2008-05-12T23:14:00.000-04:00

Vegas-

Do you know the math, for example, on what each half of a win is worth on the money line? For example if a team was 7 1/2 O -150 and 8 O EV, which would be a better bet? Obviously you have to win the 7 1/2 60% of the time to break even and 8 50% of the time. Does it land on 8 10% of the time? More? Less? Something like that if you or anyone else knows, just curious.

I plan on evaluating on all of these once I finish...

2008-05-12T21:36:00.000-04:00

I plan on evaluating on all of these once I finish the model I am creating.

The NE number was the one was I most curious about. I was thinking 12.5.

12 at -130 is basically the same thing. Definitely the highest in recent memory.