Comments on Vegas Watch: Final Four Odds

I had not noticed the clear correlation between F4...

2008-03-05T11:14:00.000-05:00

I had not noticed the clear correlation between F4 and NC odds. I'm not surprised by it, but that is dumb. The relationship is not linear.

Purdue is 100:1 (0.99%) to win it all, and 22:1 (4.35%) to make the F4. That gives them a 22.8% chance of winning it all if they reach the F4.

Kansas' numbers are 6:1 (14.29%) and +130 (43.49%); that puts them at 32.36% to win it all if they reach San Antonio. Their ratio is probably about right; Purdue's however, is not even close. If the Boilermakers reach the F4, they will be HUGE underdogs in both games. Giving them a 30% chance of winning each game is probably generous, and even that would only put them at 9% to win it all. Purdue's F4 odds are much, much better than their NC odds. Better teams should have a smaller discrepancy between their F4 and NC odds, since they are *better* and are more likely to win against that level of competition.

The Indians to win the division (I got it at +220) is definitely better than their win total. I think the 91 number is pretty much dead on also, but I went with the over. I find myself to be more optimistic than most Cleveland fans, which is almost definitely caused by my relatively young age.

Two points, one on-, one off-topic:First, in looki...

2008-03-05T09:59:00.000-05:00

Two points, one on-, one off-topic:

First, in looking at these numbers, I agree that Sportsbook did not really make any assumptions regarding seed. In fact, I think these odds are simple extensions of their odds to win the title. For example, UCLA and UNC are the prohibitive favorites and are 5:1 and 11:2 to win the title, respectively; those same teams are 11:10 and 6:5 to reach the Final Four.

Now take a team like Memphis, whose 2:1 odds surprised you and appear to be a good bet (I agree). Now look at their championship odds, which are a surprising 9:1 (not saying I'd bet that, but considering their record and hype, that's pretty high).

Without going down the line, it appears to me that there's a simple correlation between the odds to win the championship and the odds to reach the Final Four. Simply, it looks like they are dividing the odds of winning the title by a factor between 4.5 and 5.

In the end, I think your analysis in projected seedings, and who these teams may face, is where you can find some value in these wagers before the brackets come out.

On to my second, quicker point: I'm a Cleveland man, born and bred for 28 years, and a die-hard Tribe fan, even moreso than the Browns. I voted under on their wins, but I think that number's dead-on. To get over 91, I think everything (health, luck, regressions, expectations, etc.) will have to go their way. I'm concerned about Fausto entering his 2nd straight year of a heavy workload, and I'm not as high on the ceiling of Asdrubal as most are. That being said, I'm also highly critical of the entire Tigers pitching staff, and would rather bet on the Indians to win the Division rather than the over on season wins.

Don't look at the polls. Seriously. Ignore them ...

2008-03-05T09:01:00.000-05:00

Don't look at the polls. Seriously. Ignore them entirely.

Lunardi has them as a 4, and Parrish has them as a 5. The way I figured these numbers, there's really not much of a difference between those two. They have played well in the BE, but they did *nothing* in November/December. It obviously depends on how they play over the next two weeks, but I don't think they're even close to 20% to make the F4.

That being said, my little paragraph on them did not make sense, and I have changed it.

I'm just curious why you think UConn will be a 5 s...

2008-03-05T08:52:00.000-05:00

I'm just curious why you think UConn will be a 5 seed. They are ranked 13 right now, which means at worse they are a 4 seed, and potentially a 3 seed if they play well in the Big East Tournament. There is no way they are a 5 seed, they are one of the hottest teams in the country in one of the toughest conferences. I agree those odds aren't good if they are in fact a 5 seed, but I don't see that being the case. I think it's actually a pretty good bet if they end up being a 3 seed, which is more likely than them ending up a 5 seed.

I have it on good authority that C.C. Sabathia and...

2008-03-05T07:29:00.000-05:00

I have it on good authority that C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona will be kidnapped and hidden in a warehouse for the bulk of the season.