Vegas Watch

Sportsbook and BetUS have minimal, boring odds up on Thursday's draft. Luckily, Bodog comes through with an extensive selection.

While I am trying to determine what is and isn't a good bet, please be advised that my knowledge of the situation comes from reading this Chad Ford column, and looking at DraftExpress and NBADraft.net.

It should be noted that Ford, while having the most accurate mock last year, only called 12/30 picks correctly. This stuff is really hard to call, especially when you get past the first few picks.

Unless otherwise specified, these props are regarding who will be taken in each slot, regardless of who is picking there. The actual props don't have the team name (except for #2 and #10), which I have added in parenthesis.

Who will be the #1 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft? (Bulls)
Michael Beasley, +375
Derrick Rose, -600

We've been slowly moving in this direction for almost two months now, since it was essentially a coin flip. All indications are that Rose will be the guy, but I wouldn't want to pay -600 to find out.

What will Miami do with the #2 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft?
Draft Michael Beasely and Keep him, 2/7
Trade Pick or Draft Michael Beasley and Trade him, 4/1
Draft O.J. Mayo, 9/2
Draft Any Other Player, 3/1

This is kind of surprising, isn't it? This obviously isn't exactly insider information, but Ford says:

We continue to hear that the Heat will probably trade the No. 2 pick if Rose is off the board.

Seems pretty straight forward, doesn't it? I suppose that we probably tend to overrate the possibility of guys getting traded, but +400 on that seems like a pretty good price here. I certainly wouldn't take the other side at -350.

Who will be the #3 pick? (Timberwolves)
Mayo, 2/5
Kevin Love, 9/2
Jerryd Bayless, 7/1
Brook Lopez, 3/1
Other, 8/1

Given the uncertainty of the Draft, I don't think there's a whole lot I would take at -250, and certainly not this. All three mocks have Mayo going here, but Bodog is obviously prepared for that scenario.

Might "Other" be a decent choice here? I am asking--I have no idea. Is there a scenario where the Heat keep their pick and select someone other than Beasley? It seems like maybe the Heat to trade their pick at +400 and "Other" at +800 would be a good combo, with one hedging the other.

Who will be the #4 pick? (Sonics)
Bayless, 5/6
Russell Westbrook, 3/2
Lopez, 3/1
Eric Gordon, 5/1
Other 8/1

Ford has them taking Westbrook, NBADraft.net has Bayless, and Draft Express has Lopez. I get the impression that the Sonics themselves have no idea who they are going to take.

I wouldn't bet on any of the players here, but what about "Other"? I know this is getting repetitive, but are we that sure that Rose-Beasley-Mayo are going to go 1-2-3?

Who will be the #5 pick? (Grizzlies)
Love, 5/9
Gordon, 3/2
Lopez, 5/1
Other, 13/4

Sounds like they're either going to take Love or Gordon. I have nothing to add here.

Who will be the #6 pick? (Knicks)
Bayless, 5/6
Westbrook, 5/6
Danilo Gallinari, 3/1
Joe Alexander, 6/1
Other, 9/2

This is interesting. As you may remember, there was a time that Gallinari was the heavy favorite here, at -150. A lot has transpired since, apparently. Ford says:

We had Danilo Gallinari at the Knicks in our first mock draft, but dropped him when a Suns source said that Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni wasn't a big fan. Apparently Gallinari's workout, combined with some research, has changed that opinion. Gallinari has worked out well everywhere and it sounds like the Knicks are comfortable with him here.

So, there you have it. Chad Ford endorses Gallinari at 3:1.

Who will be the #7 pick? (Clippers)
Gordon, 10/13
Westbrook, 3/1
Alexander, 11/2
D.J. Augustin, 8/1
Other, 2/1

Sounds like this will probably be Gordon, although there's no way I'd pay -130 for it, especially since Ford has Bayless going here.

Who will be the #8 pick? (Bucks)
Alexander, 1/2
Lopez, 7/2
Westbrook, 11/2
Augustin, 8/1
Other, 3/1

The whole world thinks they are taking Joe Alexander. Unfortunately, that includes Bodog.

Who will be the #9 pick? (Bobcats)
Lopez, 10/11
Augustin, 11/2
Donte Greene, 11/2
DeAndre Jordan, 10/1
Other, 10/11

Man, wasn't Lopez expected to go #3 at one point? That didn't last.

The three mocks have Westbrook, Lopez, and Love going here. Other seems like a decent value.

What will the Nets do with the #10 pick?
Draft Danilo Gallinari, 1/1
Draft any other player, 10/13
Trade pick, 4/1

"Any other player" at -130 has to be the play here. It's the 10th pick in the draft, how can they be so confident that a) Gallinari will be available, and b) they'll take him?

Who will be the #11 pick? (Pacers)
Augustin, 13/10
Anthony Randolph, 4/1
Brandon Rush, 11/2
Greene, 15/2
Other, 1/1

John Hollinger would not take Randolph here.

Ford has them taking Augustin. Not at +130 though.

Who will be the #12 pick? (Kings)
Randolph, 5/4
Rush, 7/2
Darrell Arthur, 9/2
Roy Hibbert, 5/1
Other, 6/5

They are supposedly looking at Hibbert; NBADraft.net has him going here, and Ford mentions him as well (although he has them taking this guy).

Who will be the #13 pick? (Trail Blazers)
Rush, 6/5
Greene, 3/2
Nicolas Batum, 10/1
Other, 5/6

Ford thinks the Blazers will either trade this pick (they do that a lot), take Rush, or take some French guy named Alexis Ajinca. DraftExpress has Ajinca going here as well, while NBADraft.net has Rush.

13th pick, only three non-field players, a team that loves to trade, and two of three mocks having a guy in the field selected. Other at -120 seems like the way to go here, does it not?

Who will be the #14 pick? (Warriors)
Kosta Koufos, 1/1
Arthur, 5/2
Greene, 9/2
Marreese Speights, 8/1
Other, 6/5

It is Koufos or Greene here, apparently. I liked it better when the lottery was only 13 teams.

Bodog has some more props, about whether guys will get drafted in the first or second round, and which players will get traded in the offseason. Go check them out, if you want, but those are categories I can't even fake knowledge in.

NA Basketball Player Prop Betting [Bodog]

Photo: NBA.com

There is a horse race on Saturday, apparently. Bodog has all kinds of props, but we'll start with the standard stuff.

To win the Belmont Stakes
(1) Big Brown, 2/5
(2) Guadalcanal, 40/1
(3) Macho Again, 30/1
(4) Dennis of Cork, 10/1
(5) Casino Drive, 10/3
(6) Da' Tara, 33/1
(7) Tale Of Ekati, 16/1
(8) Anak Nakal, 33/1
(9) Ready's Echo, 40/1
(10) Icabad Crane, 35/1

Will Big Brown win the Triple Crown?
Yes, -250
No, +200

A few days ago, Big Brown was -300 to win. I'm not sure if there's been some big news, or if he simply wasn't getting much action at -300.

You'd have to think that there's some value in the other nine horses, although maybe it's not enough to pay all the juice on the latter prop. The more interesting thing is at the race itself, where lots of people will inevitably bet on Big Brown simply to have the ticket of the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.

Obviously, this (among other things) will inflate Big Brown's price come race time. I would really like to know how much of an effect it'll have, but I have no clue. I do know that betting on him is similar to betting on Tiger; it's not smart. And, to be clear, if he does end up winning, that doesn't mean it was a good bet.

Similar to the tournaments Tiger actually plays in, you can also bet on this race "without Big Brown". That means that if BB wins, bets on the horse that finishes second win; otherwise, it's the same as normal. For this, Casino Drive is 11/10. So, as you can also see in the normal odds, there is both a big gap between #1 and #2, and #2 and the rest of the field.

Will a member of the Clinton Family (Bill, Hilary or Chelsea) attend the 2008 Belmont Stakes?
Yes, -140
No, EV

Will the mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg, attend the 2008 Belmont Stakes?
Yes, +135
No, -175

Gotta love how they spelled Hillary's name wrong. Not like she's been in the news lately or anything. Bloomberg would be against this.

I don't have much else to say about these. Are these people going to be at the race? I have absolutely no idea. I also have no clue how they come up with these odds.

Who will jockey Kent Desormeaux thank first upon being interviewed after the 2008 Belmont Stakes?
God/Jesus, 6/1
Horse - Big Brown, 4/1
Family or Family Member, 5/4
Owner - IEAH Stables or partnership member, 8/1
Trainer - Rick Dutrow, 9/2
Fans/General Public, 5/1

This is quite the dilemma. Obviously, he should thank the horse. However, the horse cannot understand what he's saying, so it'd be kind of silly to waste his first "thank you" on a horse. Without knowing anything at all about Desormeaux, I'd probably take either God or Dutrow here.

Will Big Brown remain undefeated in 2008?
Yes, -250
No, +180

Some these make no sense. Why would you bet on "Yes" here at -250 when you can take him to simply win this race at the same odds? The answer is probably that they forgot to change this when the race odds changed, I guess. I don't see why that would be so difficult.

We have reached the breaking point. Bodog think the Rays have a better chance of winning the division than the Yankees. I don't have their preseason odds for these, but my guess would be that the Rays were about +4000, and the Yankees +130. A lot changes in two months.

Three weeks ago, the first place Rays were 100:1 to win the World Series at Sportsbook. Today, they're 10:1. As much as I like to talk about how smart the oddsmakers are, it's worth pointing out that the people making these futures lines aren't necessarily the same ones making the lines for individual games. With the futures lines, sometimes they're just not paying attention.

Not all is well in Tampa though. As I mentioned in this week's Covers article, they've played nearly 60% of their games at home, the highest mark in the AL. They've gone 24-10 in those, which means they're only 11-12 on the road. Appropriately, their next nine are away from home, against Boston, Texas, and the Angels.

It's an extremely important stretch for them. BBTF commenter Jim Wisinski-- a real Rays fan, so the complete opposite of me-- puts it into perspective:

This whole road trip is huge for the team. 9 games, against the teams expected to win the AL East and West as well as going to Texas where visiting teams often have some trouble. I've kept my enthusiasm tempered throughout this season (before the season I was sure that they would be at least .500 but didn't have much of any chance at the playoffs) but them going at least 4-5 in this stretch would be huge and remove any doubts for me about their ability to contend and maybe even be the current favorite for the wild card. Fun stuff.

Fun stuff, indeed. Let's just hope it goes better than the last time they visited Boston.

Related: Broken News: Ortiz, Westbrook [BP Unfiltered]

Photo: Yahoo!

From Bodog (click to enlarge):


So you can gamble on whether someone will be caught gambling. This is what our world has come to. Good times.

Although this is obviously very specific--"spotted on a Casino Gaming Floor". In theory, Barkley himself could bet on the "no" side of this prop, thus get his gambling fix while knowing he'd win. Although I suppose the $100 limit would drive him away.

The qualifier at the end, "Blogs do not count towards wager" is pretty questionable, even beyond the (probably warranted) blatant discrimination. So if Deadspin publishes pictures of Barkley at a casino, that doesn't count. But if the Post publishes a rumor that he was seen gambling, that counts. Does that really make any sense? Shouldn't they just say that it has to be published by a "credible source"? Or "confirmed", or something?

Photo: About.com.

Bodog has some entertaining odds posted on the NFL Draft. First off:

"Which ESPN NFL Analyst will have the most correct selections on their final 2008 NFL Draft 1st Round mock draft?

Mel Kiper Jr. (-120)
Todd McShay (-120)"

This strikes me as an extremely entertaining thing to root for while watching the draft. Betting on this would give you a rooting interesting for every pick in the first round, except for when they have the same prediction. I'll probably have some kind of post early next week on whose mock drafts were the most accurate.

There are also odds one each of the first 11 picks. I'm not going to post them in full (go here for that), but here are the favorites for each pick:

1. Miami, Jake Long (N/A)
2. St. Louis, Chris Long/Glenn Dorsey (each 10/11)
3. Falcons, Matt Ryan/Glenn Dorsey (each 1/1)
4. Raiders, Darren McFadden (2/3)
5. Chiefs, Branden Albert (8/5)
6. Jets, Vernon Gholston (1/1)
7. Patriots, Keith Rivers (9/5)
8. Ravens, Matt Ryan (17/10)
9. Bengals, Sedrick Ellis (29/20)
10. Saints, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (2/1)
11. Bills, Devin Thomas (6/5)

For those last two the favorite is actually "Field", but I figured that wouldn't be too informative. Those two are the only ones that differ from Kiper's mock draft; he has Aqib Talib going 10th (4/1) and Leodis McKelvin going 11th (3/1).

The Scouts Inc. Live Mock Draft has Ellis going 5th , Ryan 7th, and Rivers 8th. None of those guys even have odds listed on being selected with those picks at Bodog. They are trying to predict trades and such, which seems like an exercise in futility.

This post was originally going to be about good NCAA futures odds on various sites. But when I actually sat down to write it, I realized there isn't much out there right now.

There was some decent value out there a couple weeks ago. Xavier was recently 100:1, but the best you can do on them right now is 60:1 at Carib. Kansas St. was 80:1 right after they beat KU, now they're around 30:1. Wisconsin's currently at 75:1 at Carib, which is pretty solid.

Basketball Prospectus favorite Louisville is 20:1 at Carib. This isn't bad, but considering the rest of their schedule (@Pitt & Georgetown, vs. ND & Villanova), I think it might be smart to wait on them. There's a decent chance they lose a couple of those games and (absurdly) fall out of the rankings, possibly allowing their odds to drop to somewhere in the range of 30:1.

Anyway, what this became is an analysis of teams that are currently overvalued, as shown by their unprofitable odds. I understand this isn't very helpful from a wagering perspective, but hopefully it is interesting nonetheless.

USC- #8 seed, Pomeroy #27, 30:1 at Sportsbook
I'll be the first one to tell you how good the Pac-10 is this year. But it is kind of ridiculous for the fifth best team in the conference (fourth if we're being generous) to be 30:1 to win it all. This may have been reasonable three weeks ago, when they had just beaten UCLA and Oregon on the road, but not now, as they currently sit at 6-6 in conference play. Guard Daniel Hackett, USC's assist leader and second most efficient scorer, may not play again this year. Without him, USC has some serious depth issues- they made only one substitution in Sunday's loss to UCLA. With the talent they have, a turnaround is not impossible, but the Trojans' current concern should be making the tournament, rather than winning it.

Pittsburgh- #8 seed, Pomeroy #26, 50:1 at Sportbook
Two months ago, Pitt was 11-0 and #6 in both polls. Sure, they hadn't played anyone who was actually good, that's not the point. Things were really looking up after they beat Duke at MSG. Since then, the Panthers are just 8-6, including ugly road losses at Dayton and Marquette, and a shocking home loss to Rutgers. Part of it has been injuries, but Mike Cook isn't coming back this season, and the Marquette loss came in Fields' first game back. Pitt's early reputation exceeded its actual talent, because they played well against a weak schedule and beat Duke on a buzzer three. The odds still haven't caught up reflect how much of a longshot they really are to win it all.

Michigan St.- #6 seed, Pomeroy #24, 40:1 at Sportsbook
The Spartans got off to an impressive 14-1 start, with wins against Missouri, BYU, Texas, and Purdue, and their only loss coming against UCLA. Then they scored 36 points in a loss to Iowa. So that wasn't good. But they followed that up by winning five straight and moving to 7-1 in the Big Ten. Then came the loss to Penn St. If you're supposed to be at the top of the B10 this year and find yourself losing, even on the road, to Iowa and Penn St., something is wrong. Last week MSU had two road games against teams that are playing like they're the cream of the B10 crop, Purdue and Indiana, and they lost them both, including an uninspiring 19-point defeat at the hands of the Hoosiers. Right now it looks like Sparty is behind those two and Wisconsin in the B10, and that conference just isn't good enough this year for its #4 team to be 40:1 to win the championship.

UConn- #3 seed, Pomeroy #21, 9:1 at Bodog
I am picking on the Huskies a little bit here, because almost all of Bodog's futures odds are terrible (for example, Kansas St. is currently 12:1). Obviously they have been playing well- their win over DePaul on Tuesday was their 10th straight W. But they have been extremely fortunate over this stretch, winning games by margins of 1 (twice), 2 (twice), 5 (twice) and 6. That's seven of the 10 wins by an average of only 3.1 points. This is how teams get overrated- they are fortunate late in games, and people focus on the fact that they won. The rest of UConn's Big East schedule is remarkably easy, with the only tough games coming at Villanova and home vs. West Virginia. It looks like they'll end up with a 2 or 3 seed, but I can't see them being one of the best teams in the country.

After jumping out to a 41-2 lead (!), the Seattle under ended up winning 82-22 (79%). Detroit poll is up.

Via MLB Playoff Odds, BetCRIS has posted lines for the four possible Super Bowl matchups:

San Diego (-3) vs Green Bay
San Diego (-6) vs NY Giants
New England (-12) vs Green Bay
New England (-14) vs NY Giants

From the Matchbook odds on each game, here are the chances of each matchup:

SD vs GB: 9.4%
SD vs NYG: 3.1%
NE vs GB: 66.1%
NE vs NYG: 21.4%

Based on these, the average SB line will be AFC -11.4. Sportsbook still has the SB line at -13.5, which is probably too high. Bodog has it at 12.5, BetCRIS has it at 12.

The chances of each remaining team winning the Super Bowl, based on the futures odds at Sportsbetting, BetUS, Bodog, VIP, Sports Interaction, The Greek, Bookmaker, and Matchbook:

Essentially New England vs. the field at this point, which is to be expected. I would guess the Pats' 51.1% breaks down to something like an 88% chance of winning their first game, 75% for their second, and 78% for the SB (neutral site, but against an NFC team clearly inferior to the Colts, their likely AFC Championship opponent.)

As far as I can tell, the best you can do on the Pats to win the SB is -138 at Matchbook, and -145 at The Greek.

Bodog has the two most likely SB matchups as Pats-Cowboys (2/3) and Pats-Packers (7/2). Indy-Dallas is third, at 5/1. The highest odds I have seen are at The Greek for Bucs-Chargers and Giants-Chargers, at 172.5:1 each. (Something like Titans-Redskins would obviously be much higher than that, but these sites don't list all the possible matchups, and have the field at around 5:1.)

The "Early Super Bowl Line", which was once as high as AFC -16.5 (after New England's 45-point win over the Redskins) is down to 11.

As usual, BetUS has some completely random props. The O/U for total points scored this weekend is 160.5, and the O/U for FGs is 12.5. The prop for Randy Moss' total TD catches in the playoffs came out at 5 (which seemed almost ridiculously high), but is now down to 4.5.

The playoff favorites for most receiving, passing, and rushing yards are Moss (+200), Brady (EV), and Maroney (+350), respectively. I'm shocked. Amusingly, Eli Manning has the highest odds of anyone, at 30:1 to have the most passing yards.

A couple days ago Bodog posted lines on "What team will Alex Rodriguez be playing for on Opening Day '08?" I was going to dedicate a post to these, but Leitch beat me to it. Over at BP, Nate Silver had an Unfiltered post ranking all 30 teams' chances of landing A-Rod. The Bodog odds aren't even up anymore, but I thought it would be interesting to compare these two lists.


So it seems like the Angels and Dodgers are clearly the frontrunners. But after that? It's pretty unclear. The is a huge disconnect between what Bodog and Silver think about the Cubs' and Yankees' chances. The Yankees' odds are always wrong, but what about Chicago? Here's Silver's reasoning:

"The sale of the club is likely to take longer than expected, as there are rumors that the Tribune’s deal with Sam Zell is in question, and as they look for non-Mark Cuban suitors to compete with John Canning’s bid. They’d also have to be willing to commit to A-Rod at shortstop for at least several seasons because of Aramis Ramirez’ contract. I’d be shocked if he signs here."

Seems reasonable enough to me. The other big difference is the Giants:

"San Francisco fans are notoriously tolerant, they could use any offensive help they can get, and Barry Bonds’ departure leaves some cash in their wallets. But this team is probably not going to the playoffs with or without A-Rod, so this is the fallback alternative if the contending clubs don’t bite."

Trying to combine the relevant information from these two lists, here's mine:

1. LAA
2. LAD (Torre helps, I guess)
3. PHI (think about that infield)
4. SFG (what's the point?)
5. DET (I really hope not)
6. CHW (Kenny Williams is an unpredictable dude)
7. NYM (I can't see it, but this is what I'm rooting for)
8. HOU (puts them in contention in that division)
9. STL
10. CHC

Sorry, two A-Rod posts in a row. Next week I'm gonna try to look at some of the *other* FAs, and their likely destinations. That, or maybe just write 1500 words on how much I hate Marketing. We shall see.

When trying to gauge the relative strengths of teams in October, people tend to use run differential. The Red Sox were +210, the Indians +107, thus the Red Sox must be significantly better.

The runs scored portion of this makes sense to me. Boston averaged 5.35 R/G, Cleveland 5.01. Those numbers are probably pretty representative of the strength of their offenses.

In terms of pitching, however, run differential doesn't strike as a very effective way to judge teams in October. First of all, a lot of these guys aren't even on the playoff rosters. Does it really matter that Jeremy Sowers allowed 49 runs in 67.1 innings? Should we really care that Roberto Hernandez had a 6.23 ERA in 26 innings? As incredible as Clay Buchholz was in limited work (22.7IP, 4ER, 22K), that really isn't going to help the Red Sox against the Indians.

I think we also need to take into account the extra off days. During the regular season, C.C. Sabathia made 34 starts, which is 21% of the Indians' games. Regardless of the length of this series, his share of October starts will be higher. If the series is a sweep, he will have pitched in 25% of the games. If it's not, he will pitch game five, which means he'll pitch in at least 28.5% (2/7) of Cleveland's games.

I have always thought that the Indians are "built for October", with the strength at the top of their rotation, and their three excellent relievers (plus Borowski). So I decided to try to figure otu if there was any truth to that.

Here's what I did. For the bullpens, I took the FIPs of each pitcher. I then tried to figure out about what percentage of their team's relief innings each pitcher will throw. Here are the results of that little exercise:

These %s are obviously quite unscientific, but I think they're pretty decent approximations. Using these, we can reach a weighted ERA for each bullpen. Cleveland's comes to 3.11, Boston's to 3.27. This doesn't take fielding into account at all (thus the "Fielding Independent" portion of FIP), so I added each teams unearned runs per nine innings; 0.24 for Boston, 0.28 for CLE. So, the expected bullpen RA is 3.35 for Cleveland, and 3.55 for the Red Sox.

For the starters, I just used their individual RAs. I also took into account each guy's average innings per start. For example, Sabathia has an RA fo 3.51, and averages 7.1 IP/GS. That leaves 1.9 innings to the bullpen. So I combined Sabathia's 3.51 RA, and the Indians' bullpen RA of 3.35 (obviously weighting Sabathia's much more heavily), to come to 3.46 as the Indians' expected RA in a game Sabathia starts. Here are the numbers for each of the eight starters:

Okay, now we just have to account for the number of starts each pitcher will get. For this, I turned to the Vegas lines (of course I did). BetUS.com thinks there's a 15% chance of a sweep, 25% chance it ends in 5, 30% in 6, and 30% it goes 7.

Accordingly, the G1 starters will make an average of 1.85 starts, G2 starters 1.60, G3 starters 1.30, and G4 starters 1.oo (obviously). With this information, we can weight each SP's "TM RA" appropriately, and take into account that Sabathia and Beckett will inevitably be bigger factors in this series than Byrd and Wakefield.

Finally, we have how many runs we should expect each team to allow per game. Combining this with their R/G, here are the results:

These results are very different from what we get when we simply use RS & RA from the entire season. Doing that, we get an EXP W% of .623 for BOS, and .562 for CLE.

The Red Sox are still the better team, and they have home-field, but it's probably closer than most people think. Here are the W%s for each team in each game, taking the location of the game into account.

The Red Sox are favored in G1 (-155 at Bodog), and that makes sense. It will be interesting to see what the line is for G2; I would guess Boston will be slightly favored, and that may be legit if you want to talke Schilling's postseason dominance into account.

I think Boston will probably be favored in G3, as Matsuzaka inspires more confidence than Westbrook. I'm not so sure about G4 though- this analysis doesn't know that Wakefield is struggling through injuries.

Finally, if the Indians are going to advance, it looks like they're going to have to do it in G6, as things aren't looking too good for them if this thing goes the distance.

Photo: Cleveland.com.