Vegas Watch

U.S.S. Mariner looks at some small sample size craziness.

Banny log #3.

"The Metro and Magnet Night don't mix like..."

Kenny Mayne has an interesting marketing plan for his new book.

Carib released their college hoops futures odds.

Jay Jaffe thinks PECOTA is overly optimistic about the Rays' defense.

This post was originally going to be about good NCAA futures odds on various sites. But when I actually sat down to write it, I realized there isn't much out there right now.

There was some decent value out there a couple weeks ago. Xavier was recently 100:1, but the best you can do on them right now is 60:1 at Carib. Kansas St. was 80:1 right after they beat KU, now they're around 30:1. Wisconsin's currently at 75:1 at Carib, which is pretty solid.

Basketball Prospectus favorite Louisville is 20:1 at Carib. This isn't bad, but considering the rest of their schedule (@Pitt & Georgetown, vs. ND & Villanova), I think it might be smart to wait on them. There's a decent chance they lose a couple of those games and (absurdly) fall out of the rankings, possibly allowing their odds to drop to somewhere in the range of 30:1.

Anyway, what this became is an analysis of teams that are currently overvalued, as shown by their unprofitable odds. I understand this isn't very helpful from a wagering perspective, but hopefully it is interesting nonetheless.

USC- #8 seed, Pomeroy #27, 30:1 at Sportsbook
I'll be the first one to tell you how good the Pac-10 is this year. But it is kind of ridiculous for the fifth best team in the conference (fourth if we're being generous) to be 30:1 to win it all. This may have been reasonable three weeks ago, when they had just beaten UCLA and Oregon on the road, but not now, as they currently sit at 6-6 in conference play. Guard Daniel Hackett, USC's assist leader and second most efficient scorer, may not play again this year. Without him, USC has some serious depth issues- they made only one substitution in Sunday's loss to UCLA. With the talent they have, a turnaround is not impossible, but the Trojans' current concern should be making the tournament, rather than winning it.

Pittsburgh- #8 seed, Pomeroy #26, 50:1 at Sportbook
Two months ago, Pitt was 11-0 and #6 in both polls. Sure, they hadn't played anyone who was actually good, that's not the point. Things were really looking up after they beat Duke at MSG. Since then, the Panthers are just 8-6, including ugly road losses at Dayton and Marquette, and a shocking home loss to Rutgers. Part of it has been injuries, but Mike Cook isn't coming back this season, and the Marquette loss came in Fields' first game back. Pitt's early reputation exceeded its actual talent, because they played well against a weak schedule and beat Duke on a buzzer three. The odds still haven't caught up reflect how much of a longshot they really are to win it all.

Michigan St.- #6 seed, Pomeroy #24, 40:1 at Sportsbook
The Spartans got off to an impressive 14-1 start, with wins against Missouri, BYU, Texas, and Purdue, and their only loss coming against UCLA. Then they scored 36 points in a loss to Iowa. So that wasn't good. But they followed that up by winning five straight and moving to 7-1 in the Big Ten. Then came the loss to Penn St. If you're supposed to be at the top of the B10 this year and find yourself losing, even on the road, to Iowa and Penn St., something is wrong. Last week MSU had two road games against teams that are playing like they're the cream of the B10 crop, Purdue and Indiana, and they lost them both, including an uninspiring 19-point defeat at the hands of the Hoosiers. Right now it looks like Sparty is behind those two and Wisconsin in the B10, and that conference just isn't good enough this year for its #4 team to be 40:1 to win the championship.

UConn- #3 seed, Pomeroy #21, 9:1 at Bodog
I am picking on the Huskies a little bit here, because almost all of Bodog's futures odds are terrible (for example, Kansas St. is currently 12:1). Obviously they have been playing well- their win over DePaul on Tuesday was their 10th straight W. But they have been extremely fortunate over this stretch, winning games by margins of 1 (twice), 2 (twice), 5 (twice) and 6. That's seven of the 10 wins by an average of only 3.1 points. This is how teams get overrated- they are fortunate late in games, and people focus on the fact that they won. The rest of UConn's Big East schedule is remarkably easy, with the only tough games coming at Villanova and home vs. West Virginia. It looks like they'll end up with a 2 or 3 seed, but I can't see them being one of the best teams in the country.

After jumping out to a 41-2 lead (!), the Seattle under ended up winning 82-22 (79%). Detroit poll is up.