Vegas Watch

Cliff Lee's ERA+ currently sits at 1563. Update: Unfiltered:

"Since 1956, do you know how many pitchers had made three straight starts with 8+ innings, <=3 hits, <=1 walk, and 8+ strikeouts? Here's the list, which I have put in alphabetical order for your convenience:

Cliff Lee.

Here's that list again, sorted by last name:

Lee, Cliff."

Apparently, the key to a successful baseball team is figuring out which 42 games are the "important ones".

20 years ago, Crash Davis already understood BABiP.

Mets Geek interviews Tom Tango.

I understand it's a tough job, but you have to wonder what goes through the umpire's head on a call like this.

Two Posnanski interviews- Hardball Times, and Outs Per Swing (a Rays blog).

LeDunk.

I love this:

"If the problem is 'the heart of the order fails with runners in scoring position,' the solution isn't 'put fewer runners in scoring position.'"

Over the last few days, there has been some talk about how trading for Miguel Cabrera is a much better option than signing Alex Rodriguez. Here's one example, from FanHouse:

"Yes, A-Rod will outproduce Cabrera in the short-term, but will he outproduce him by $20 million a year? Not a chance. And whatever organizational depth a team loses by trading all their prospects to acquire Cabrera can be made up in time by pouring at least some of the difference in salary into scouting and the draft."

That $20MM number isn't a very realistic way to look at this situation. 2008 will be Cabrera's second arbitration year (he made $7.4 MM in '07); he's probably going to get $10-$12MM this year, and somewhere around $15 MM in '09. So, yes, that's a lot less than A-Rod.

But that's only for two years. After that, he's a free agent. Cabrera's next contract, whether he signs an extension in the near future, of hits the open market two years from now, is going to be quite large. Probably not A-Rod numbers (unless Miggy has a huge year in '09, like Rodriguez did this year, in which case all bets are off), but maybe a step below that- 8 years, $225 million, something like that. So saying Cabrera is going to be a great addition because he's cheap isn't really true.

This second issue here is his defense. The guy is a great hitter, that's pretty obvious (look at his B-R comps; that's quite a list). But he's a serious liability in the field. John Dewan's Plus/Minus system had him as the third-worst third baseman in baseball this year, and THT's numbers agree. I mean, look at the guy. It seems like he's destined for first base, which makes him even less comparable to Rodriguez.

Finally, and this is probably the most important issue, the Marlins aren't about to give this guy away for free. There's a reason they're looking to trade him now; he's under control for two more years, and his value is probably at its peak, as far as Florida is concerned. The Marlins are going to be looking for someone like Clayton Kershaw (LAD) or Howie Kendrick (LAA)- these are big-time names. (Side note: I read (here) that the Yankees are reluctant to include Ian Kennedy in a trade. Are they serious? Like Melky Cabrera, Alan Horne and Ross Ohlendorf are going to get this deal done?)

Miguel Cabrera would be a great addition to a lot of teams, especially one that is in a position to win now and has a deep farm system. But I fail to see how trading for Cabrera is a clearly superior alternative to signing Alex Rodriguez.

Photo: BBC.

PostmanE is the only reason this post exists.

If you read one thing on Ankiel/HGH, Will's Deadspin post has to be it.

At one point I was considering writing a long profile on Clay Buchholz, but SOX & Dawgs has a pretty good summary, certainly more concise than mine would have been. Although I don't quite understand all the "where did this guy come from" angle; he was Boston's #2 prospect coming into the season, and had 171 Ks in 126 minor league innings this year.

FanHouse continues its takeover, as they've now acquired The Dugout. As a send off, The Dugout is doing a series of farewell posts, starring Farnsworth, The Young brothers, and PECOTA.

I am constantly referring to the BP Playoff Odds; if you're curious as to how they're computed, Derek Jacques has a (free) article explaining what goes into them.

Snuck into the end of Neyer's blog post (Insider) yesterday: "P.S. By all measures I can find -- both numbers and media buzz -- if the Mets finish in first place, David Wright is a lock in the National League. Book it." I generally agree with this, although I think it's far from a lock. Knuckle Curve points out that the voters may be blinded by all the HRs of Fielder and Howard. This is true, but I think that will only allow them to overtake Wright if one of their teams reaches the playoffs.

I understand this isn't how the world works, but right now CC Sabathia should win the AL Cy Young. A big reason for this is he leads MLB in innings. Beckett is going to be right up there with the voters because of his 17 wins, but Sabathia has pitched thirty six more innings. This is partially because he has made four more starts (which has value in itself), but he also goes deeper into games, averaging 7.0 innings per start to Beckett's 6.7.

In notching his 16th win last night, Kelvim Escobar jumps up to third in Cy Young Predictor- he would be a deserving choice as well. Sadly, it looks like Bedard's season might be done. This means that the MLB strikeout leader is one again up for grabs, with the top contenders being Peavy (210), Johan (203), and Kazmir (199).