Vegas Watch

As huge as this trade is, it's fairly straightforward. The Tigers get much better in 2008-09, while giving up a couple guys that could be superstars in 2010 and beyond (if not before that). It's the kind of trade we don't see that often anymore, as teams have learned to value prospects appropriately. But when a guy whose age 21-24 comps are "Hank Aaron, Hank Aaron, Hank Aaron, and Hank Aaron" is involved, you're going to have to give up some serious talent.

Tigers get:
Miguel Cabrera

Miguel Cabrera hit .320/.401/.565 last year. Tigers third baseman Brandon Inge hit .236/.312/.376. Miggy had the slight edge in VORP, 71.4 to -3.3. It is rare that you upgrade by 75 runs offensively at a position, but that's what's happening here.

The similar contrast in the defensive skill of these two can't be ignored, however. Over the last three years in Dewan's +/- system, Inge is +61 plays; Miggy is -37. That works out to (very roughly) 25 runs per year, which puts a small dent in the advantage that Miggy's bat has.

Still, they're upgrading from a replacement-level bat to a Hall of Fame level bat . The Tigers won 88 games last year, and they're improving by 4-5 wins at third base. Coupled with essentially replacing Sean Casey with Edgar Renteria, that makes them pretty scary.

Dontrelle Willis

Amazing how things change. A couple years ago, Willis was being shopped as the main cog in trades similar to this one. Now, he's relegated to second billing. What happened?

Looking back, it really seems like it just took awhile for perception to catch up to reality. Willis took the world by storm in '03. He had a great '05, because of temporarily improved control and an aberrantly low HR rate. But look at those K/9; it's pretty clear that he's not the 8.0 K/9 guy he was for 160 innings in 2003.

That's isn't to say he isn't valuable, not at all. He's averaged 215 innings in his first full seasons, and, as we're about to find out, there's a lot of value in eating up innings. But it seems like the over/under on his 2008 ERA should probably be around 4.80. An asset, sure, but certainly not the same guy who almost won the Cy Young at age 23.

Marlins get:
Cameron Maybin
Andrew Miller
Mike Rabelo
Eulogio de la Cruz
Dallas Trahern
Burke Badenhop

It drives me absolutely nuts that this package has been widely reported as "Maybin, Miller, Rabelo, and three minor leaguers". Like we don't care what the second half package is, we're not informed enough to understand? Cameron Maybin has 49 major league ABs, and he was just the biggest prize in a trade that landed Miguel Cabrera; can we all agree that minor leaguers aren't trivial?

If the Tigers were able to land these six, I can't imagine what this deal would have looked like if Willis hadn't declined over the last couple years. The top four here, plus Porcello? I don't even know if that would've been enough.

Although some Tigers fans are trying hard to trivialize their loss, Maybin is one of the top prospects in the game. Before 2007, Baseball America rated him as the 6th best prospect in the game. He hit .304/.393/.486 in high-A this year, made a quick stop in AA, and made his ML debut in Yankee Stadium on August 17. At the age of twenty. He'll be Florida's centerfielder for years to come. Although this raises an interesting question- what to do with Hanley Ramirez? I had kind of figured that he'd end up in center, but this puts an end to that idea. Third base? I have no idea how his issues at SS would translate there.

Andrew Miller, BA's #10 prospect coming into '07, isn't bad himself. He struggled with his control with Detroit this year, walking 39 in 64 innings, but let's not forget that he turned 22 in May. His control was fine in the minors (26 walks in 83 IP; yes, he's only threw 83 minor league innings before getting called up), and he gets an impressive amount of ground balls (4.32 career GB/FB ratio). His K rate with the Tigers was very solid (7.9 K/9). The Marlins certainly gave up a lot, but they're getting two of the best prospects in the game, at the peak of their value- major league ready, and with barely any service time under their belts.

Quickly running through the other four guys (sorry, I have to sleep occasionally):

Rabelo is 27, and seems like a solid backup catcher. De la Cruz is hard throwing 23-year old reliever, with pretty good numbers over the last couple years. Trahern just turned 22, and relies on a heavy sinker to produce obscene ground ball rates. Badenhop has a fantastic name but isn't very good.

Photo: NY Times.

Over the last few days, there has been some talk about how trading for Miguel Cabrera is a much better option than signing Alex Rodriguez. Here's one example, from FanHouse:

"Yes, A-Rod will outproduce Cabrera in the short-term, but will he outproduce him by $20 million a year? Not a chance. And whatever organizational depth a team loses by trading all their prospects to acquire Cabrera can be made up in time by pouring at least some of the difference in salary into scouting and the draft."

That $20MM number isn't a very realistic way to look at this situation. 2008 will be Cabrera's second arbitration year (he made $7.4 MM in '07); he's probably going to get $10-$12MM this year, and somewhere around $15 MM in '09. So, yes, that's a lot less than A-Rod.

But that's only for two years. After that, he's a free agent. Cabrera's next contract, whether he signs an extension in the near future, of hits the open market two years from now, is going to be quite large. Probably not A-Rod numbers (unless Miggy has a huge year in '09, like Rodriguez did this year, in which case all bets are off), but maybe a step below that- 8 years, $225 million, something like that. So saying Cabrera is going to be a great addition because he's cheap isn't really true.

This second issue here is his defense. The guy is a great hitter, that's pretty obvious (look at his B-R comps; that's quite a list). But he's a serious liability in the field. John Dewan's Plus/Minus system had him as the third-worst third baseman in baseball this year, and THT's numbers agree. I mean, look at the guy. It seems like he's destined for first base, which makes him even less comparable to Rodriguez.

Finally, and this is probably the most important issue, the Marlins aren't about to give this guy away for free. There's a reason they're looking to trade him now; he's under control for two more years, and his value is probably at its peak, as far as Florida is concerned. The Marlins are going to be looking for someone like Clayton Kershaw (LAD) or Howie Kendrick (LAA)- these are big-time names. (Side note: I read (here) that the Yankees are reluctant to include Ian Kennedy in a trade. Are they serious? Like Melky Cabrera, Alan Horne and Ross Ohlendorf are going to get this deal done?)

Miguel Cabrera would be a great addition to a lot of teams, especially one that is in a position to win now and has a deep farm system. But I fail to see how trading for Cabrera is a clearly superior alternative to signing Alex Rodriguez.

Photo: BBC.

There is no such thing as a .400 hitter. Well, at least there never has been. People have hit .400, of course, but that's always been something of a fluke. This is evident in the fact that Ty Cobb has the highest career BA ever, at "just" .366.

In 1994, Tony Gwynn was hitting .394 when the season was cut short by the strike. He hit .358 in '93, and .368 in '95, so in reality he was about a .372 hitter over that three year period. If he had gotten 170 more ABs in '94, there's about a 14% chance he would have bumped his average up to .400.

Since Williams hit .406 in 1941, five guys have had 500+ plate appearances and hit over .375:

It's no coincidence that Brett, Williams and Walker barely had 50o plate appearances- it's a lot easier to hit .375+ over 450 plate appearances than 600. If Carew had had as many ABs in '77 as Brett had in '80, there's a 30% chance he would have gotten lucky and ended up above .400.

The ability to hit .400 is a very different "skill" than the ability to put together a long hit streak. For hitting streaks, you want as many at bats as possible, since going 1/5 is just as good as going 1/2. For this list, it's an advantage to have fewer at bats, as that increases the chances that you can get lucky and hit for a higher average than your actual level of ability would normally indicate (for example, almost anyone can hit .400 over the course of 20 at bats). Because of this, hitting lower in the order, and drawing a lot of walks, increase your chances of hitting for an unusually high average.

Taking these factors into account, as well as age, here are the 10 guys that are most likely to hit .400.

1. Miguel Cabrera (24 years old, .327 BA in 05-07).
Career odds: 1 in 429
2008 odds: 1 in 6859

The concerns about his weight have not effected Miggy's batting average, as he's hit at least .323 each of the last three years. A couple weeks ago he became the third fastest to 500 RBIs, reminding the world that he doesn't turn 25 until April of 2008. It's possible that he has room to grow as a hitter, which is a scary thought- he has to be #1 on this list.

2. Albert Pujols (27 years old, .327 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 473
2008 odds: 1 in 6146

This was the first guy that came to mind for me. Over the last three years he has walked in almost 16% of his plate appearances- that kills him in terms of hit streaks (he wasn't even in the top 10), but really helps him here- he's never had more than 592 ABs in a season.

3. Matt Holliday (27 years old, .323 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 1167
2008 odds: 1 in 15170

How much of an effect does Coors Field have on this? In his career, he's hit .358 at home, but just .273 on the road. If he were to plan an entire season at home, he'd have about a 2% chance of hitting .400. On the other hand, if he played a full year on the road, he wouldn't be anywhere near this list.

4. Vladimir Guerrero (31 years old, .325 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 1802
2008 odds: 1 in 16214

Doesn't it seem like a long more than four years ago that Vlad was playing in Montreal? This is completely unrelated, but with the Expos he averaged 17.5 stolen bases per year but was thrown out 37% of the time. In Anaheim, he has averaged just 11.3 SB/yr, but has only been thrown out on 21% of his attempts.

5. Placido Polanco (31 years old, .325 BA in 05-07) Career odds: 1 in 3032
2008 odds: 1 in 27281

After the 2004 season, Polanco's career average stood at .295. How has he hit 30 points higher than that over the last three seasons? Well, for one thing he stopped striking out- his K% has gone from 10.9% in 1999 to 4.9% this year. He's also increased his BABiP by hitting more line drives- his LD% for 02-04 was 22.5%, over the last three years it's 24.6%.

6. Derrek Lee (31 years old, .319 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 3612
2008 odds: 1 in 32500

Lee is on this list only because he hit .335 in 2005; since then, he's hit .305 in 695 ABs. It has been speculated that this is an effect of injuring his wrist last April. That may have something to do with it, but I would guess 2005 was the exception here- his previous career high was .282.

7. Derek Jeter (33 years old, .322 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 4216
2008 odds: 1 in 29511

If this were to happen, I think it's entirely reasonable to think he could be on the front page of both the Post and Daily News every day for two months.

8. Magglio Ordonez (33 years old, .322 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 5165
2008 odds: 1 in 36154

Before this year, Magglio had never hit above .320; right now, he's at .357. If he went 42/45 down the stretch, he'd be at .401; I tried to run the odds on that, but it just says 0.

9. Ichiro Suzuki (33 years old, .324 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 5287
2008 odds: 1 in 37007

Ichiro averaged 683 ABs over his first six seasons, because he bats leadoff and rarely walks. In 2004 he hit .372 in 704 ABs; if he had had 200 fewer at bats, there's about a 1 in 10 chance that he would have hit .400.

10: Robinson Cano (24 years old, .313 BA in 05-07)
Career odds: 1 in 8496
2008 odds: 1 in 135924

Cano was third on the hit streak list because he never walks, and he's only 10th on this list for that same reason. It should be noted that he's at least walking more than he used to- his BB% has doubled from 3.0% in 2005 to 6.0% this season.

Photos: Ted, Miggy, Vlad, Jeter. Stats taken from B-R, the B-R Play Index, and FanGraphs.

Previously: What Are The Odds: DiMaggio's Streak
What Are The Odds archive

There have been a couple impressive streaks lately that have received national attention (Webb & Jenks), and a third (Polanco's errorless streak) that hasn't been as hyped up but is pretty incredible. >

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