Vegas Watch

It's been quite a year for comebacks. Josh Hamilton, Rick Ankiel, even Pedro's impressive return.

All those guys are great stories because of non-baseball or injury factors. But how about a guy who's come out of nowhere to have a better season than any of them?

After last night's brilliant performance (8IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 9K), Fausto Carmona has the lowest ERA in the AL, at 3.07. To understand how truly remarkable this is, you have to understand what Carmona went through last year.

Saying that Carmona was 1-10 in 2006 really doesn't tell the whole story. He made three starts in April, pitching well in one and quite poorly in the other two. The Indians then moved him to the bullpen, and that's when things got interesting.

From May 20 to July 25, Carmona posted a 0.95 ERA in 28.1 innings of relief, holding opponents to a .294 SLG while not allowing a home run. He struck out 26 while walking only 7, and things were looking up for the 22-year old Dominican.

Then, the Indians traded closer Bob Wickman to the Braves, and promoted Carmona into Wickman's role- the logical move, given how well he had pitched in front of Wickman for two months.

Carmona lasted in this role for exactly one week, making four appearances. He allowed 11 runs in 2.2 innings, good for a 37.13 ERA. It started when he entered a a tie game against Seattle in the 9th, and allowed four runs as he gave up three hits and walked two batters. He did manage to get three outs, which ended up being the most he ever got as the Indians' closer.

The next day, the Indians were in Boston, and had a 8-6 lead going into the ninth, so they brought Fausto in. Fifteen pitches and a David Ortiz walk-off HR later, it was 9-8 Boston.

Two days later, in the same series against the Red Sox, Carmona came in with a 5-4 lead. Carmona loaded the bases by walking a batter and hitting two, then Mark Loretta won the game with a two-run double.

Three days after that, the Indians were in Detroit, and had a 3-2 lead. With two outs and a runne on first, Ivan Rodriguez blasted a two-run homer to left, ending both the game and Fausto's career as a closer. He did manage to make a little history in the process, becoming "the second pitcher in major league history to lose four games in relief in a span of no more than seven days."

The Indians decided that was probably enough, and his next two appearances games in games with scores of 14-2 and 13-0. They had Carmona make four starts in September, where he went 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA.

To recap:


Carmona only began 2007 in the Indians' starting rotation because of an injury to Cliff Lee. In four April starts Carmona went 2-1 with a 3.76 ERA. But when Lee was healthy again, the Indians sent him to AAA. This only lasted briefly however, as Jake Westbrook went down with an injury, and the Indians recalled Carmona.

In his first nine starts, Carmona pitched well, but it didn't seem like he could keep that up, as he struck out only 3.3 per nine innings. In his last 21 starts, though, things have been different, as he's almost doubled his strikeout rate, to 6.6 K/9.

Carmona relies on his sinker to get ground balls, and that seems to be working, as he leads the AL in ground ball percentage, at 64.6%. This also allows him to avoid the long ball, and he's fourth in the AL in HR/9, at just 0.62. Combining this with good control (2.5 BB/9) allows Carmona to limit baserunners. And even when people do get on base, Carmona has induced 32 double plays, which leads the majors.

Before last year, Carmona was ranked as Cleveland's #4 prospect; one could have expected him to struggle at first when he was called up, eventually finding his way and contributing. But the way he has done this- going 0/4 in save opportunities in 2006, only to become a Cy Young contender one year later, has been truly amazing.

Pictures from S2N, here, here.