Vegas Watch

This little tournament starts in a couple hours, which is pretty exciting. So I have this for reference, here are the final series prices:

COL (+120) @ PHI (-140)
CHC (-135) @ ARI (+115)
LAA (+150) @ BOS (-180)
NYY (-180) @ CLE (+150)

In general, these correlate pretty closely with the run differentials:

COL (+102) @ PHI (+71)
CHC (+62) @ ARI (-20)
LAA (+91) @ BOS (+210)
NYY (+191) @ CLE (+107)

Colorado is +102? They're +51 over their last 15 games; their Pythag W% over that time is .777, which is pretty amazing. That's really the only series where the run differential and odds don't agree. Christina Kahrl did the writeup for this series on BP, and picked the Phillies in 5. Interesting.

I hadn't realized just how good Boston's pitching is. They ended up with the least runs allowed in baseball (657), although that's kind of unfair since SD played the extra game (they ended at 666). Considering the Padres' home park, that means Boston's pitching was considerably better. Wouldn't have guessed that.

I guess I should make picks. I've had no time over the last two days, so these are very poorly researched. Put your picks in the comments if you want, but it's probably too late to get any reasonable number of predictions (if you're reading this after the games start, post them anyway, who cares)- you could also post them on TBL.

CLE in 5
BOS in 4
CHC in 4
COL in 5

BOS in 6 (I'll campaign for CC for Cy Young forever, but Beckett terrifies me)
CHC in 5

CHC in 7

Random prediction: Fausto wins G2 & G5 vs. the Yankees, becomes famous.

Other assorted thoughts/links:

Aftter much work, I think I've found the best system for deciding the MVP. Try to argue with THAT. A 3.3 point lead! That means...I have no idea what that means.

On a more serious note, THT released the final Win Shares numbers.

Today's my birthday (20, if you were wondering; you weren't), and at 12:01am I got an e-mail from oddsmaker.com, giving me $20 in free cash to bet. I guess I'm signed up for an account with them, but I've definitely never deposited money. So I suggest you go ahead and sign up for that site and completely lie about your birthday, say it's tomorrow or something. Then bet it all on CC tomorrow. Why not? Too good to be true, of course. You can't bet the bonus money unless you deposit. I was gullible because during CBB season something similar happened, and I was able to wager it. Sorry if I wasted your time.

Wakefield is hurt; so that's why they took the longer series. Makes sense now.

Finally, SITE NEWS: The NL RoY poll is ending today at 4ET; you should vote if you haven't done that yet. For Tulo. (I always forget that RSS people can't see the polls, so I should probably mention them in the posts.). AL Cy Young poll will be up tonight. I was thinking just CC, Fausto, Beckett, Lackey, but if you would vote for someone else please leave it in the comments so I can add them. Unless it's Wang.

Enjoy the games. An entire post of me complaining about Joe Borowski later tonight.