There will be plenty written about this elsewhere (start here), but I figured I'd add a few thoughts.
-The Mets didn't even give up their #1 prospect (Fernando Martinez). The Red Sox and Yankees were never offering either of their top guys (Buchholz and Joba) either. But those two are a tier above Martinez, prospect-wise. Many people said the Mets didn't have enough in their system to get Johan, yet they did it while keeping Martinez. Seems like Bill Smith waited too long on this.
-I think trying to value Santana in 2009 and on is very interesting. He is going to be getting paid a lot of money (6yrs, $150MM is the figure everybody throws out there). It's difficult for a player to be worth much more than that. But as MetsBlog points out, when you have an opportunity to acquire a guy of this caliber, you almost have to. This is just so far beyond what you can get via free agency. For example, would you rather pay Barry Zito $18.5MM in 2009, or give Santana $25MM? Even after factoring in the prospects/draft picks that you give up, this is not a difficult decision.
-At first I thought that Santana's numbers will get a huge bump because he's switching to the weaker league without a DH, and moving to an extreme pitcher's park. He'll certainly get quite a boost from moving to the NL, but not so much from moving into Shea. The Metrodome treats pitchers pretty well, and it's 2007 park factor was extremely low, at 93 (its multi-year PF was 96). Shea's multi-year PF is also 96, so that's pretty much a wash. PECOTA projects his '08 ERA as 3.32 with the Twins, and 2.94 with the Mets. The majority of that has to be a league adjustment.
-It's interesting that Silver has him at 227 IP in Minnesota, but only 225 in NY. I would've guessed his IP projection would have increased now that he'll be facing the pitcher every few innings. The only thing I can think of is he gets pulled for a PH more often, but that has to be outweighed by the easier opposing lineups.
-Going from the AL's 12th best offense (and that was with Hunter) to the NL's 4th best will certainly help Santana's Cy Young chances. I had forgotten that Johan finished only 15-13 last year. I blame Punto.
-Having Pedro and Johan in the same rotation is pretty cool. I don't believe I've ever seen Santana pitch in person but that'll certainly change this summer. He's out of the Indians' division, and out of their league, which is nice.
-At this point, I think Sabathia would be crazy to accept the deal that The DiaTribe has proposed. He'll be able to get both more years and a higher AAV on the open market.
Edit: Paul makes it clear in the comments that he doesn't think C.C. will accept the deal either. Which I understood, but completely failed to make clear. Here's my response for you non-comment readers, and RSS people:
My point (in theory) was that what the gap between Indians can reasonably offer and what Sabathia can get elsewhere is so large, that his return really seems unlikely.
It's obviously still possible that he wants to stay, and will take a substantial discount. I don't know why this would be the case (although at least Oakland isn't a feasible option), but it would be nice.
If he leaves it'll certainly be disappointing, but it's not the end of the world. They will have ended up paying the guy ~$35MM for something like 1600 innings of a 118 ERA+. They'll only get a couple draft picks at the end of it, but that's okay. The value there is unbelievable, and that's how you win baseball games in the Indians' situation. Not by signing pitchers to six year, $140MM contracts.
Subscribe in a reader
2 comments:
VW,
I'm not saying that Sabathia would accept the deal I'd propose. I'm saying that going beyond the 5 years guaranteed extension would be imprudent for the Indians to do with the track record of long-term contracts for starting pitchers as it would really amount to 6 years with his being under contract for 2008 already.
No question C.C. could get more on the open market; and, if that is what he desires to do (hit the open market and get a Santana-like contract), I don't think the Tribe will be the ones offering him the deal...and rightfully so given the history of performances of pitchers working under contracts longer than 5 years.
Paul- Right, I know you're not. I should have made that more clear. My point (in theory) was that what the gap between Indians can reasonably offer and what Sabathia can get elsewhere is so large, that his return really seems unlikely.
It's obviously still possible that he wants to stay, and will take a substantial discount. I don't know why this would be the case (although at least Oakland isn't a feasible option), but it would be nice.
If he leaves it'll certainly be disappointing, but it's not the end of the world. They will have ended up paying the guy ~$35MM for something like 1600 innings of a 118 ERA+. They'll only get a couple draft picks at the end of it, but that's okay. The value there is unbelievable, and that's how you win baseball games in the Indians' situation. Not by signing pitchers to six year, $140MM contracts.
Post a Comment