Those odds are below. I have also used the Pomeroy ratings to determine what % chance each team has of winning each matchup, and thus their odds of winning the whole thing. I then translate that into what their odds should be. This isn't a perfect system, but it gives us a pretty good idea.
For the most part, the "Pomeroy" column will have higher odds than the "Greek" column. This is because the percentages I calculated obviously add up to 100%, while the Greek's odds add up to 138.6%. But occasionally the odds are higher than they should be; those are the profitable bets.
I would advise against betting on Evansville.It's very surprising to me that the Drake odds are worth betting on. They've gotten a good deal of national attention; it seems like people would bet on them at +150, and even lower than that. I also think most people would see the best team in the conference with a "+" next to their odds and think it's a good line. It's unclear why their line is as high as it is.
SIU is not a bad bet either. The Salukis have had a down year, but they're actually right there with Illinois St. in the tempo-free stats, which shows in how similar their Pomeroy odds are to the Redbirds'.
(I have very little school work over the next two weeks; you should probably be checking this site every 10 minutes or so.)
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5 comments:
Why do the Greek's odds add up to 138.6?
House advantage. It is high on futures like this.
How do you figure pomeroy odds for individual games? Avg of home adjusted OE and visitor adjusted DE and vice versa, times home court adv, at the average adjusted pace between the two teams?
You can definitely do it like that. I think there is a description of how to somewhere on kenpom.com/blog.
I just have an Excel file that someone sent me awhile back, and I can plug the teams' names in and get the predicted score.
Drake up to +200 now
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