Vegas Watch

I did this last year- nobody was actually reading then, but hopefully it was good practice. Every week (in theory), I'll take a look at some interesting futures odds on who will win the World Series.

The main tool I use in doing this, beyond common sense, is the BP Playoff Odds report. There are multiple versions of it, but this early in the season the PECOTA version is the useful one. It takes into account games that have been played, but also uses PECOTA's preseason projections to forecast the rest of the season. The original version is an excellent resource later in the year, but since it only relies on data from games played this season, it's fairly useless right now- I don't think the Royals have a 35% chance of winning the Central.

(All records/percentages through Tuesday's games. Odds taken from 5Dimes, Sportsbook, Bodog, and BetUS)

Oakland, 125:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 4-4
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 30.3%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 3-4
PECOTA: 36.0%

These are PECOTA suggestions, as it'd be hard to turn down 100:1 odds on a team that has a 1 in 3 chance of playing in October. The question becomes, do they really have such a good chance? The Rays have already been discussed- if you believe they can allow 226 fewer runs than last year, then go for it. It's worth noting that Tampa's odds have been bet down (I'm sure PECOTA played a role in this), as you could've gotten them at 200:1 just to win the AL a few weeks ago.

PECOTA is higher than others on Oakland's offense, and has them finishing with 80 wins. In the abstract, this seems too high, but looking at their roster, PECOTA's expectations don't seem particularly unreasonable. Failing to account for potential injuries is not the issue, as they only have Chavez playing 55% and Harden making 16 starts. In that miserable division, they are probably worth a flyer. I really haven't figured the A's out yet though- if I do, I'll let you know.

Milwaukee, 30:1 (5Dimes)
Record: 6-1
PECOTA: 51.1%

I am not one to overreact to early season results. They do need to be taken into account, though. Before the season started PECOTA had the Cubs winning 91 games, and the Brewers 88. That is not a huge difference, but it's cetainly significant. Seven games into the season, Milwaukee is two games up on Chicago in the standings. Even if we (correctly) infer nothing from their performance so far, they've already made up 2/3 of the gap that existed in March. This is proven in the fact that PECOTA has the Cubs on pace for 92.7 wins, with Milwaukee at 91.5. We shouldn't read too much into how the two teasm will play throughout the rest of the season based on just seven games, but gapes in the standings, however early, certainly do matter.

This team can really hit. Braun and Fielder are the big names, but Hart is right behind them, and many people are expecting a big year out of Weeks. Everyone in the lineup is projected to have a VORP of over 20 except for Kendall. He is their one weak spot, although has somehow hit .526/.565/.737 over the first week. This is a very good lineup, and has as good a chance of any non-Colorado team of leading the league in runs scored.

At 30:1, you're going to have to take on some risk. In this case, that comes in the form of the pitching staff. Sheets is off to a fantastic start, but obviously the issue with him is health. Gallardo is out, but has looked good in rehab. The rotation also has some upside in Parra and Villanueva. Sure, it's possible that Sheets gets hurt again, Gallardo never makes it back, and the two newcomers to the rotation fall flat on their faces. But at these odds, it's worth that risk.

(Yes, I'm aware of their closer issues. But they do have Turnbow, Riske, Torres, and whomever leaves the rotation when Gallardo returns. I don't need to tell you have overrated closers are- it's not a terrible bullpen.)

Baltimore, 250:1 (BetUS)
Record: 6-1
PECOTA: 2.3%

I wouldn't actually bet on this, but I'd imagine it's rare to get a team in first place- by two games!- at these odds. I didn't want to go the whole year without writing about the Orioles, and this is likely my only chance. The most relevant thing they're doing right now is delaying the potential Roberts-to-Chicago trade, which only helps Milwaukee.

Detroit, 12:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 0-7
PECOTA: 40.1%

These aren't very good either, but 12:1 now is better than 7.5:1 a week ago. Yes, they are struggling, but everything is relative- it's not like the Indians (4-5) are lighting the world on fire. If you are dead set on betting on the Tigers, now is probably the time to do so.