Vegas Watch

Sportsbook has once again posted odds on who will lead the majors in home runs this year. The original odds were discussed two months ago; today I am going to look at how "my guys" are doing, and see if there is any value in some of the updated odds.

Ryan Braun
Was 15:1
HRs: 3
Now12:1

Braun is actually off to a slow start, hitting .227 with no walks. Doesn't matter though, because a) it's 44 ABs, and b) he's on pace for 49 homers. I thought 15:1 was a little high, but not unreasonable- 12:1 is about right at this point.

Rick Ankiel
Was 300:1
HRs: 3
Now 10:1

This is funny. There is no way anybody thinks Ankiel has a 1 in 10 chance of leading the majors in homers- which is exactly the point. Somebody (and, I have no idea who this might be) bet on Ankiel at 300:1, and it doesn't take much money at those odds to put the books at risk. So they made sure to change it to a completely outrageous price, because they don't want to increase that risk. I am sure they'll be happy to take your action at 10:1 though.

Carlos Pena
Was 50:1
HRs: 5
Now 15:1

Gotta love anyone who starts the year with a .216/.370/.622 line- five homers, six walks, and as many HBP as singles (three). I don't know what had more of an effect here- his 81-homer pace (yes, I do thoroughly enjoy playing the on-pace game two weeks into the season), or the fact he shouldn't have been 50:1 in the first place. Probably a combination, and I don't think I'd take him at 15:1 now.

Alfonso Soriano
Was 25:1
HRs: 2
Now 20:1

A very slow, 44 OPS+ first couple weeks for Soriano, but he does have the two HRs. There was some value in 25:1, caused by the 27 games he missed last year; there probably isn't much in 20:1 after the slight hole he's put himself in.

It's too bad they don't have odds for Justin Upton- with four homers already, and a little bit of potential (maybe), he could be a fun longshot. Pujols (3 HRs) is interesting at 20:1- he was 15:1 in February, and I'm assuming that's changed because of the injury concerns. Might be worth taking a chance that he stays healthy all year- I don't think it's that much of a stretch that a healthy Albert Pujols would lead the majors in homers, although he's actually never even let the NL.

Chris B. Young has gotten off to a quick start (four homers), but his odds (30:1) already reflect that. There doesn't seem to be much else of interest- they've tightened up a bit on these. They currently all add up to 175%; it was only 143% in February. The full odds can be found here.