Vegas Watch

This week:
Oakland, 35:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 23-17
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 34.3%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 23-16
PECOTA: 46.3%

If the season ended today...What, it doesn't? Can we change that rule? Please?

Tampa's odds at different books have been quite strange. At Sportsbook, they're 100:1 to win it all, and 5:1 to win the division. At BetUS, they're 35:1 to win it all and, until a few hours ago, were 16:1 to win the East (it's been changed to 6:1). Those ratios make no sense. This is what happens when you win six in a row, and they change one set of odds, but don't get to the other.

16:1 is gone, but the 100:1 line at Sportsbook is still quite good. The best odds you can get on them anywhere else are 55:1 at 5Dimes. I know I said this last week, but it's only a matter of time before Sportsbook changes their odds dramatically; that's especially true after their performance in the last week.

We are now almost a quarter of way through the season- Tampa has played 39 games. The Rays are on pace to allow 652 runs. I understand offense is always down at the beginning of the season before the weather warms up, and that's especially true this year. But that is 292 fewer run than last year. Even if you factor in the significant difference in run environments (9.8 R/G last year, 8.8 this year), that's 218 fewer runs. It's an insane turnaround, and one which has been caused mostly by defense- they are on pace to be 248 plays better on balls in play than last year, which equates to about a 200 run improvement.

The inability of the mainstream media to distinguish between the Rays and the Marlins is annoying. Florida is off to a good start, which is great. But the reason for this is, as Sheehan put it, "they had Jim Boeheim draw up the schedule". Tampa's third order winning percentage is .579; Florida's is .497. The fact that they play in the same start, and both have low payrolls, doesn't make them comparable teams.

I am losing interesting in Oakland. 35:1? 4:1 to win the division? No thanks.

Milwaukee, 60:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 20-19
PECOTA: 43.7%

This is interesting. Their highest odds anywhere else are 35:1.

Their offense's OPS, which was 106 last year, is down to 93 this season. The main culprits for this are Prince Fielder (.250/.349/.412), Rickie Weeks (.190/.311/.340), and J.J. Hardy (.254/.333/.323). Braun is the only hitter who has been significantly above average, and that's only because he's raised his OPS by 147 points in four games. As expected, they've struggled against righties, hitting .240/.313/.380. But they haven't been particularly good against lefties either, with a .252/.334/.434 line.

They have actually been a couple games worse than their record, as they've been outscored by 14 runs. They've been even worse in terms of EQR/EQRA, at -30. Even if it's come against a difficult schedule, t's been a rough six weeks.

Still, 60:1 is pretty high. Prince Fielder isn't going to continue slugging .412 forever. PECOTA expects them to reach the playoffs 43.7% of the time. That may be overly optimistic, but even if we knock it down to 35%, and give them a 40% chance of advancing through each round of the playoffs, they should be about 45:1.