Update 2: Join the contest.
Update: BetUS has now posted totals as well.
BetCRIS, which is now my favorite website, has posted over/unders for each MLB team's 2008 wins. Vegas Watch will have much more coverage of this in the coming weeks (to the extent that I ever *cover* anything). For now, I will just post the totals, although I did have some fun with the formats.
Arizona- 86.5
Atlanta- 86
Baltimore- 65
Boston- 94
Chicago C- 87.5
Chicago W- 76
Cincinnati- 76.5
Cleveland- 91
Colorado- 83
Detroit- 93.5
Florida- 68.5
Houston- 73.5
Kansas City- 73.5
LA Angels- 92
LA Dodgers- 87.5
Milwaukee- 84
Minnesota- 73.5
NY Mets- 92.5
NY Yankees- 94
Oakland- 74
Philadelphia- 88
Pittsburgh- 68.5
San Diego- 85
San Francisco- 72
Seattle- 85
St. Louis- 77
Tampa Bay- 72
Texas- 75
Toronto- 84
Washington- 71.5
Edit: New poll is up. Let's see how many of these things we can get through before the season starts.
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20 comments:
I was a little surprised to see that these averaged to 81. That's a pretty common mistake.
I'd be curious to know how much perception plays into something like this.
Nicholas,
That's a pretty common mistake for Steve Phillips. But not when there's this amount of money at stake.
I think perception plays a big role. I would guess that the Rays are so low because they've never won more than 70 games, so 72 will get pretty much split action.
Is it bad that I'm considering raiding my PayPal to slap some money down on the Rays?
(I honestly can't believe I just wrote those words.)
Over on the Rays and Brew Crew, under on the Mariners and Cubs.
@quail
That Rays line is a headscratcher for me too. Most of the big simulations I've seen run have the Rays at least 10% over that. Sure, there's risk that their kids will continue to develop, but they are getting much better.
I actually like the Cubs' over, Fastness. Especially if they trade for Roberts, that team is going to score a ton of runs. The rotation is solid (especially the top three), and the bullpen is filthy. They get to play all those games against the Astros, Cardinals, and Pirates, too.
The numbers averaging to more than 81 is a very common mistake even with money at stake. This year happens to be an exception.
Also, these lines have moved a lot since they were posted. Tampa opened at 68.5, Minnesota at 76.
I've never bet on baseball or anything else in my life. Can someone walk me through how to put money on the Rays? (Legally.)
Colorado at 83 wins also looks low. Where, exactly, are they expected be worse than last year?
I also really like the over on Florida.
j holz- The Rays really opened at 68.5? That is unbelievable.
And I was thinking about the adding up to 81 thing, and it really doesn't matter. It's not like you can bet all the overs if they average to 80 and come out ahead, as you'll obviously get killed on juice.
I threw a quick WAR spreadsheet together for the Cubs and they came out at 90.7 wins.
vr, Xeifrank
The Tigers under and the Rays over are no brainers. Seattle under and Oakland over are second best, I think.
Baltimore might struggle to get 65
As you pointed out yourself, the Giants had a miserable offseason, wayyyyy under 72 wins. Very surprised to see the Yanks with the most at 94 (tied with Boston).
As a Twins fan, I hate to say, I'll take the under.
Take the under all day on the mariners. There's no way they even get to 82 wins this year.
Take the under all day on the mariners. There's no way they even get to 82 wins this year.
I am not an M's fan, but not make 82? Look at the staff. Bedard and Silva along with Felix, Washburn and Batista? They won 88 last year, despite having 68 games started by either Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, Cha Seung Baek or Ryan Fererabend, whose ERA's were 6.20, 7.16, 5.15 and 8.03 respectively. I'll definitely say OVER 82 for the M's.
No offense to Mike, but this kind of logic is why the number is as high as it is.
They were extremely lucky to win 88 games- that is not the right baseline to use. Their lineup, most of which is on the wrong side of 30, got a year older. Carlos Silva is overwhelmingly average.
Over on the pirates...i'm giving them 82...this is the year they get over that 15 year slump...not sayin they'll make the playoffs, but they'll be 500...laroche for mvp...take that vegas
yankees baseball! why would anyone be surprise that the yanks are tied for highest with 94, they are the yankees, and they should be a little higher considering they won 94 gms last year and this year they seem to be a lot healthier and with a healthier pitching staff and bullpen.i see the yanks and redsox battling it for top supremency this year.god bless the stars in stripes!
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