Vegas Watch

One of the great things about college hoops is that the polls don't actually matter, as there's that little tournament at the end of the season. In light of this, I thought I'd do another overrated/underrated type post, but use the latest Bracketology rather than the polls.

The teams in green are those that I think should/will get better seeds, and the teams in red are currently too high. I've included their projected Bracketology seed, their Pomeroy ranking, and their National Championship odds at Sportsbook.

UCLA- #2 seed, Pomeroy #3 overall, 9:2 at Sportsbook
Are we really going to go through this again? Last year UCLA got screwed out of a one seed, although they did get to stay in California through the first four rounds and ended up reaching the Final Four. UCLA has had some injury problems- Collison missed the first six games, Mbah a Moute has missed four Pac-10 games, Mata-Real has missed a couple games. Despite this, they are 10-2 in what might be the top conference in the country. Even with the three losses, I think they're at least in the "top team in the country" conversation, and really don't see how they can be behind...

Tennessee- #1 seed, Pomeroy #15 overall, 12:1 at Sportsbook
If the Volunteers beat Memphis, sure, put them up on the top line. But right now, I'm just not seeing it. It's true that they're 10-1 in the SEC, but the SEC isn't very good. Tennessee has also been fortunate to have just one loss, as they've won their last four SEC road games by an average of only 4 points, against powerhouses such as LSU and UGA. The good news is that this will probably take care of itself- if Tennessee beats Memphis, they'll deserve their 1 seed, and a loss would likely drop them down to the second line.

Louisville- #4 seed, Pomeroy #8 overall, 18:1 at Sportsbook
Perception is slowly starting to catch up to reality with Louisville- they are finally ranked (23rd) in the ESPN poll this week. It's possible that they doesn't deserve higher than this based on their current resume, but you'd be hard pressed to find 12 more talented squads. Their Pomeroy rating is actually held down a bit, since they struggled without Padgett and Palacios early in the year, starting the season 5-3. With road games against Pitt and Georgetown, the rest of their schedule is challenging, but I expect them to be at least a 2 or 3 seed when the actual brackets are unveiled.

Purdue- #3 seed, Pomeroy #22 overall, 75:1 at Sportsbook
When a projected 3 seed is still 75:1 to win it all, something is off. These aren't old odds either- Sportsbook updated these futures on Monday. Even I am starting to become a believer in the "Baby Boilers", who have now won 11 straight B10 games. Still, this is probably their peak, as they visit Bloomington on Tuesday night. It's certainly possible that they continue to prove everyone wrong, but I think the end up being a 4 or 5 seed on Selection Sunday.

Kansas St.- #4 seed, Pomeroy #6 overall, 30:1 at Sportsbook
Beating Missouri by 37 sure helps your Pomeroy rank. Everybody knows that Beasley scored 40 points, but did you realize he did that in 27 minutes? Projected out to a full 40 minutes, that's 59 points. He might get paid to play basketball some day. This is a scary team, but they're yet to prove themselves on the road. Interestingly, freshman guard Jacob Pullen has a 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio in B12 home games, but has just seven assists and eight turnovers in conference road games. They have winnable games at Nebraska and Baylor this week, before hosting UT on Big Monday. I don't know what seed they end up getting, but I certainly wouldn't want them as a 4 in my region.

The Tampa over ended up getting 49 of 66 votes (74%). If we do one of these each weekday, and one each weekend, we can finish all 30 before the season starts. Mariners poll is up now.