8.5 for the defending Super Bowl champs. Nice.Some crazy juice on these, since the season is 1/10 as long as baseball and there's not much room to move them around. Ignoring the juice for now, average wins for each division:
The NFC average is 7.72, while the AFC is 8.03 (the overall average is less than 8; it looks like you have to pay more juice for most of the overs, though). The only NFC team over 8.5 is the Cowboys, at 10.5.Money Line had a post a few weeks back listing various helpful stats from last year. The correlation between last year's wins and this year's O/Us is .887; the correlation between last year's Pythag record and this year's O/Us is .900.
Here are the biggest difference between '07 Pythag and '08 O/U:
The three teams with the biggest discrepancies between '07 wins and '07 Pythag were the Patriots (16, 13.8), Bills (7, 4.9), and Dolphins (1, 3.8). So, in theory, that would make the NE U, BUF U, and MIA O attractive, although there are obviously many other factors to consider.
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13 comments:
I plan on evaluating on all of these once I finish the model I am creating.
The NE number was the one was I most curious about. I was thinking 12.5.
12 at -130 is basically the same thing. Definitely the highest in recent memory.
Vegas-
Do you know the math, for example, on what each half of a win is worth on the money line? For example if a team was 7 1/2 O -150 and 8 O EV, which would be a better bet? Obviously you have to win the 7 1/2 60% of the time to break even and 8 50% of the time. Does it land on 8 10% of the time? More? Less? Something like that if you or anyone else knows, just curious.
Rob, it depends on the sport because of the percentage of the time a certain spread pushes, but ML did a light assessment of that question not too long ago that might help you towards your answer.
http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/?p=396
That's a good question, Rob. I was hoping to figure that out at some point. It has to do with the standard deviation of each team's win totals.
That Packer line is waaaaay too low. I mean, yeah, they lost Favre but, like, you know, it's not like each pass he was completing was twenty yard out patterns in double coverage and not six yard slants and hitches.
Fast,
Have you seen the schedule?
List of games where the Packers are likely to be under dogs:
vs. Dallas
at Tampa
at Seattle
vs Indy
at Tenny
at Minnesota
at New Orleans
at Jacksonville
It will be tough for them to win 9 games this year.
I need John Kitna's prediction before I bet the Lions over.
Ted,
Kitna's not afraid to pay -140.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/lions/2008-05-06-kitna-guarantee_N.htm?csp=34
Very cool post.
I like BUF under 7.5 @ +150.
Well if Kitna is on board for 10, 7 should be a lock.
As a Bills fan, I hate to agree - but under 7.5 (+) all that lovely juice is probably a good play.
good stuff. i was wondering one thing.
since the vig is so crazy, is there such a thing as determining the "true" over/under for what vegas is thinking? for example, indy is at 11 but you have to pay more to take the under than the over, which means vegas doesn't really think indy should win 11 games ... right?
so is there a way to calculate based on the vig how many games vegas thinks indy really "should" win, i.e. 10.5 games?
thanks
why is the juice so high on some teams (BUFF) and so much lower on others?
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