Unless you are really high on the Rays, the Red Sox are probably in better shape than this, which certainly paints an optimistic picture for the Yankees. PECOTA was obviously a big fan, but it seems silly to expect them to be better than Boston from here on out. One could blame the mediocre start on injuries, but is that really reasonable? With the exception of Generation The Rays' odds to win it all at Sportsbook have finally been changed. Did "The Chosen Rob" cause this? We may never know. I would like to add that I saw most of the game today, and watching Kazmir pitch is an extremely painful experience. It is 2-2 or 3-2 on every single hitter.
Things are looking good for the Indians, but probably not this good. They have managed to outscore their opponents by 31 runs so far, but their third-order record is below .500. Their batting line (.235/.316/.359) is actually worse than their pitching line (.253/.315/.377). Things change with 2 outs and RISP however, when their offense has a .829 OPS, and their pitching staff has allowed a .509 OPS.
Their third-order record is almost identical to Detroit's, so based on that and PECOTA we should expect the teams to perform about equally from here on out. Because of their current six-game lead, the Indians still have the edge, but it's likely less dramatic than shown above.
I can't bring myself to take any of the other teams seriously, at least not yet. The Twins' third-order W% is .438. By almost any metric, the White Sox are overwhelmingly mediocre. And the Royals are still the Royals. Soria is awesome though, I'll give them that much.
So, you're saying that the Mariners aren't going to win 92 games? Really?Well the Oakland bandwagon filled up quickly, didn't it. The best you can do on them to win the division at this point is +220. Their current record isn't an empty one either- they have the best run differential in the league. How long can you keep scoring a sufficient number of runs with a .358 SLG though? Probably about as long as you keep up a .408 OBP with RISP, I guess.
84 wins is probably about right for the A's, but I'd guess the Angels are better than a .521 squad, especially with Lackey returning.
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3 comments:
With the exception of Generation Trey Uno, this is a very old team, and old people get hurt. That's just how the world works.
According to ESPN, the average age of the Yankees is 29.2 (16th), while the average age of the Rays is 27.8 (2nd).
On the other hand, the average age of the Red Sox is 30.1 (25th).
Are we still blaming old age?
Love your tone.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/roster?team=nyy
That list, which is where they get the average age from, includes the entire 40-man roster. Andrew Brackman and Humberto Sanchez are not exactly key cogs in your 2008 New York Yankees. It is meaningless.
C Posada 36
1B Giambi 37
2B Cano 25
SS Jeter 33
3B Rodriguez 32
LF Matsui 33
CF Cabrera 23
RF Abreu 34
Two guys under 32. Young team.
Jacoby Ellsbury - 24
Dustin Pedroia - 24
David Ortiz - 32
Manny Ramirez - 36
Mike Lowell - 34
J.D. Drew - 32
Jason Varitek - 36
Coco Crisp - 28
Julio Lugo - 32
Three guys under 32. Are we expecting most of Boston to go on the DL just because the team is old? It's not 1910 anymore. Players tend to have steady careers well into their 30s.
Anyway, the real point of contention, and what we should actually be discussing, is your assertion that "One could blame the mediocre start on injuries, but is that really reasonable? [...] this is a very old team." This seems to indicate that injuries only factor into poor performance if the team is young. Once the team is old, having some of your best hitters out of the line up is no longer allowed to count in figuring out why a team is struggling.
I presume that's not what you intended, but that's how it came out.
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