Vegas Watch

Along with the regulars, I've also taken odds from VIP this week. They tend to have some pretty good prices on futures.

Same as always, except this week I have incorporated the World Series percentages that MGL posted for each team yesterday.

Oakland, 75:1 (BetUS)
Current Record: 12-9
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 32.9%
MGL World Series odds: 4.2%
Tampa Bay, 150:1 (VIP)
Record: 9-11
PECOTA: 28.8%
MGL World Series odds: 2.7%

Every week. I was not kidding.

The Rays won tonight, so they're actually 10-11. They have scored 103 runs, and allowed 93, putting them on pace to give up 717 runs on the year. This is the exact same pace as last week, which is kind of amazing. PECOTA's seemingly crazy projection had them with an RA of 718. Kazmir's rehab start went well today, and he's expected to return on May 3 or 4.

VIP has excellent odds on them, but the "max bet to win" is $3,000, so you can't wager more than $20. They are still available at 100:1 at Sportsbook and 5Dimes. They're also 100:1 to win the AL on VIP; you can bet $30 on that.

The only problem with Oakland's hot start is that their odds are dropping. They were 125:1 at 5Dimes two weeks ago, and 80:1 at the same book last week. 5Dimes has probably been receiving some action on the A's, since they're all the way down to 66:1 now.

Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports initially reported that Oakland had signed Frank Thomas, but is now saying he is also considering an offer from a second team. Hopefully the A's get that done- he would be an excellent addition.

Atlanta, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 10-10
PECOTA: 27.9%
MGL World Series odds: 5.2%

Lost today, now 10-11.

I was surprised to see the Braves this high at Sportsbook. At the other four sites they are between 25:1 and 32:1. MGL's percentages confirm my surprise, as he would have Atlanta at 18:1.

They have not exactly gotten off to a flying start standings-wise, but have actually outscored their opponents by 24 runs which, as we have seen, bodes well for them going forward.

I don't really have much to say here. Their line seems way too high- they are probably not as good as the Mets, but the best odds you can get on New York are 6.5:1 at VIP. That's a pretty ridiculous discrepancy. Unless they play very poorly in the near future, I can't imagine they'll be 40:1 for much longer.

Cleveland, 17:1 (VIP)
Record: 8-12
PECOTA: 52.9%
MGL World Series odds: 8.6%

VIP has the Indians at 17:1, and the Tigers at 6:1. If someone could explain this to me, I would really appreciate it.

This really seems like more of an inefficiency in VIP's odds than anything else. Thsi can happen at the beginning of the year, when we are still going by expectations/reputation as opposed to actual performance. There is just no reason for that huge gap. The Indians have not been playing particularly well, but they have outscored their opponents by three runs. Cliff Lee has been brilliant, and Sabathia finally looked like his old self last night. This is still a very good team- the favorite to win their division. The Indians and Tigers should each be around 12:1; I think that would make a lot more sense.