Vegas Watch

The fact that there is actual evidence that players perform better in contract years has always interested me. It's one of the relatively few old baseball clichés that have been confirmed by actual data. Today- and, probably, a couple more times throughout the course of the season- I thought I'd check in on some of the bigger names that are eligible for free agency this winter.

The following players have been selected completely arbitrarily (from here)- I'll probably look at a different group if I do this again.

Pat Burrell
.320/.445/.670, 9 HRs, 24 BBs, 23 Ks

It's unlikely that Burrell will continue doing his best '00 Bonds impersonation, but notice the BB/K ratio. In his first year in the league, he struck out in 34.1% of his PAs, and walked in 13.4%. He's been steadily improving since:


His other numbers have also steadily increased, if not as consistently. He's 31- the hot start puts him in good position to have a career year, and it's certainly nice timing.

It'll be interesting to see how much he gets in the offseason. In theory, I'd think that the same GMs that appreciate the walks and don't mind all the Ks (read: the smart ones) would be hesitant to invest too heavily in a 31-year old with the dreaded "old player skills". Although maybe he'll end up with a high enough BA and HR total that it won't matter.

Adam Dunn
.209/.371/.374, 4 HRs, 24 BB, 24 K

At least he's still walking.

This seems like unfortunate timing for Dunn, doesn't it? Unless there is a dramatic reversal of fortunes, he will be viewed as a secondary option to Burrell. I won't waste everybody's time pointing out the obvious similarities. Not an ideal situation for Dunn, but it might make him a good deal for whichever team he ends up with. Maybe a certain GM with a team incapable of scoring runs that needs a LF anyway is thinking the same thing.

C.C. Sabathia
1-5, 7.51 ERA, 38.1 IP, 50 H, 6 HR, 18 BB, 37 K

The K/BB still isn't yet at the lofty numbers we've come to expect from Sabathia, but considering it was 14/14 after four starts, he's recovered quite nicely. And if Franklin Gutierrez was capable of catching a fairly routine fly ball, his ERA over his last three starts would likely be under 1. The ERA looks like it'll be fine, if a little inflated because of the early struggles. Whether the Indians will be able to score enough wins to get him a respectable win total is an entirely different story.

It doesn't really matter though. By November, those four April starts will be ancient history- barely more recent than the the '07 Cy Young award. How much will he get? Santana's contract (6/137.5) is probably a good starting point- Johan is better, but he also never got to test the open market. With the way "Generation Trey" is shaping up, I might even (cringe) take the over on that.

Ben Sheets
4-0, 2.29 ERA, 39.1 IP, 3 HR, 11 BB, 33 K*

Well, Gagne isn't helping. Obviously, the big thing with Sheets is health, as he has a 3.77 career ERA but has averaged just 21 starts/year since 2004. I apologize if this was covered in Baseball Between the Numbers- strangely, I don't own it- but I wonder if guys tend to stay on the field longer in contract years. That's not to question Sheets' "toughness" or whatever- I can't blame the guy for having some extra incentive to stay out there and get those IP totals back to his '02-'04 levels.

Because of the injuries, Sheets probably has the most to lose/gain over the next five months. If he wins the Cy Young, how much could he get? 5/90? That may be a little high, but it doesn't seem unreasonable. On the other hand, if he gets hurt in his next start, who's going to give him more than one, maybe two years? Besides him.

Rafael Furcal
.381/.466/.603, 4 HRs, 19 BB, 15 K

Both Furcal's BABiP (.411) and ISO (.222) are way above his career averages. There's no way the BABiP stays that high- he's been between .298 and .350 each year of his career. The ISO is impressive though, and it's not only a product of an increased HR/FB%, since he has 12 doubles and 4 triples. He won't keep this up, but this winter's contract should look similar to the 3/39 the Dodgers gave him after 2005.

*Stats include Sunday's game; everybody else's are through Saturday.

(By the way, Macklin is transferring to Florida.)

Photo: ESPN.