Vegas Watch

Last week:
Cincinnati, 150:1 (still 150:1)
Texas, 1000:1 (now 500:1)

Both teams that were 1000:1 at VIP last week (Rangers & Nationals) played competently this week (5-2 and 4-2, respectively), and are now 500:1. It's not like their World Series chances doubled; the folks at VIP probably just realized there is no reason to put a team at 1000:1 to win the World Series in early May.

The Reds were not as fortunate, going 1-5. This dropped their PECOTA Playoff Odds from 8.8% to 5.9%. Their odds are probably about right at this point.

This week:
Oakland, 45:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 21-14
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 34.2%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 17-15
PECOTA: 33.9%

The fun is almost over with these two. Oakland's odds are entirely reasonable- between 30:1 and 45:1- at all five sites now. Sportsbook is a little behind on Tampa, but the best you can do on them anywhere else is 66:1. And at BetUS, their "to win division" odds have been dropped from 25:1 to 14:1. It was fun while it lasted, at least.

Rough week for Tampa's run prevention. Over their last six games they've gone 1-5, and allowed 42 runs. They're now on pace to allow 722 runs; a big dropoff from last week's pace of 654, but still 222 fewer runs than last season.

Now would be the time to get them at Sportsbook at 100:1. People are starting to catch on, if slowly.

After staring at all the current odds for about 10 minutes, I've got nothing. At times like this, I turn to Matchbook. Always something interesting going on over there.

The most useful thing about Matchbook, from an informational standpoint, is that it's an exchange, so you can bet on both sides of their futures. For example, you can currently bet on the Red Sox at +530 to win the World Series, or at -650 to not win the World Series. With these, we can figure that Boston has between a 13.3% and 14.6% chance of winning it all. Averaging those, it's 14%; "true odds" of +580. Sure enough, the best odds you can find on them is the +530 at Matchbook, followed by +485 5Dimes.

I did this same exercise for all 10 teams that current have money being offered on both sides of the "World Series 2008" prop. Here are their "true odds", compared to their highest available odds elsewhere:

The first nine all come in below their true odds. They're all close- none are terrible bets, but none are worth making.

Then there's Toronto. The Blue Jays are 60:1 at VIP, and between 30:1 and 35:1 everywhere else. My focus has obviously been elsewhere, but Toronto is off to a decent start. They're only 17-18, but they've outscored their opponents by 17 runs. True to expectations, their run prevention has been excellent- their 124 runs allowed are the fewest in the American League, and second fewest in baseball (Atlanta, 120).

Sadly, they cannot score, and managed to get both their shortstops injured in one game. Realistically, 60:1 isn't that great; you'd be better off taking them at +1700 to win the East at Matchbook.

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