Vegas Watch

Sorry about the lack of posts over the past couple days. Finals week.

Last week:
Atlanta, 40:1; now 30:1
Cleveland, 17:1; now 12:1

This week:

Oakland, 75:1 (BetUS)
Current Record: 17-12
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 33.3%
Tampa Bay, 125:1 (BetUS)
Current Record: 15-12
PECOTA: 36.8%

Some books are giving these guys respect, but not all of them, causing for some huge gaps. You can still get Oakland at 75:1, but they're 20:1 at Sportsbook. BetUS decided to increase Tampa's odds from 80:1 to 125:1 (not sure how you can explain that), but they're down to 60:1 at VIP.

Even more encouraging than the impressive records of these two teams is that they are legitimate assessments of their performance so far. Looking at BP's Adjusted Standings, the Rays have the best third-order record in the East, and Oakland easily has the best third-order record in the West. At least in April, both of these teams have played like legitimate contenders.

The A's have scored a lot of runs (135, fourth in the league), but they're not going to continue to hit .309/.407/.431 with RISP.

The Rays are now on pace to allow 654 runs, which is somewhat absurd. They are third in the majors in Defensive Efficiency. And Kazmir makes his return on Sunday. They're still 25:1 to win the East at BetUS, by the way.

In less optimistic news, Dave Cameron has a post at FanGraphs (some great stuff over there recently) about how Eric Hinske is not likely to continue hitting .292/.407/.639.

Cincinnati, 150:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 12-17
PECOTA: 7.92%
Texas, 1000:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 10-18
PECOTA: 3.82%

Some wacky lines at VIP. The best you can do in the Reds elsewhere is 80:1, and 200:1 for Texas. I think they're able to do this because of their low limits. The site is down right now so I can't double check this, but I'm pretty sure that the max "to win" on these bets is $5,000, so they're really not exposing themselves that much. Some sites have the max bet at $500; if someone maxed out the Rangers, and they somehow made a run, they'd stand to lose half a million dollars. Not the case with VIP's low limits, so they can be a little more liberal.

The Rangers are worth a $5 at that price, I would think. I mean come on, it's still the AL West.

Not much else out there this week. The Dodgers are 35:1 at VIP, which seems high. Should have a post with an update on the leaders of the MLB totals contest up a little later.