Vegas Watch

Once again, I have separated the remaining teams into regions (which is pretty innovative), and started the discussion of each region with a table of their various Final Four odds. The first numerical column is the odds Pomeroy's log5 analysis implies each team has of reaching San Antonio. The second column shows their odds at Pinnacle and Sportsbook (same as yesterday) with the house advantage removed. The final column is the best odds I have found on each team, and where those odds are located.

An interesting arbitrage situation has been presented here. As you can see above, Sportsbook has UNC at -150 to win the East. BetUS has the odds on the Heels not winning the region at +175. By wagering $66 on them winning the region at Sportsbook, and $40 on them not reaching San Antonio at BetUS, one could lock in a $4 (or 3.8%) profit, regardless of the outcome.

I believe the inefficiency here is the BetUS line. Pinnacle has the same prop, but it's +121, much lower than BetUS' +175. The line Pomeroy's numbers would put on this (-192) is unrealistic, since it does not take into account the time Lawson missed, or the location of the games (Charlotte), but I think +175 is off as well.

There is probably some value in Louisville +350 here, especially since they are now favored by by 3 in Thursday's game, but nothing major. Same goes for Wazzu, although that one is losing value, as BetUS opened it at +1000, and the line on their game has been increasing.

Washington St.'s defensive performance against Notre Dame in the second round really was remarkable. The Fighting Irish had not been held under an offensive efficiency of 103 since their January 19th loss to Georgetown. Against the Cougars, that number was 69, the first time they've been held under 85 all season.

Even with only two games remaining, the longshots' odds are quite poor here. If you think either Davidson or Villanova are going to reach the Final Four, you'd be much better served betting on the money line and rolling it over into their Elite 8 game.

Seven of the country's nine best defenses are still alive, while for offenses that number is only four of nine. The potential Kansas-Wisconsin matchup this weekend would pit the Badgers' #1 defense against Kansas' #4 D. The big difference between these teams comes on the other side of the ball, where KU is #1, and Wisky is just 26th.

The numbers indicate- and I tend to agree with this- that Memphis has become undervalued. It is true that they cannot shoot free throws, but don't listen when CBS shoves the gloomy stats regarding this down your throat- as Pomeroy explains, these numbers are a matter of circumstance, rather than cause and effect. The reason not many poor free throw shooting teams have won it all is that there haven't been many teams this incompetent from the line that were this good overall- Memphis is a fairly unique situation, and should be treated as such. People always need something to talk about, and considering the Tigers have lost only once all year, it's not surprising that their weakness has gotten so blown out of proportion.

The rest of the odds in this region are pretty boring. I do find it interesting that Sportsbook clearly had the best Final Four odds prior to the tournament, but that title has now been handed over to BetUS.

The guys from Storming the Floor wrote the following regarding UCLA in today's Deadspin West Regional Preview:

"Nothing short of a Final Four will meet expectations, and a championship is almost necessary for a group that could be remembered for coming up short on the biggest of stages without it."

I completely agree with this, but also find it to be somewhat insane.

UCLA's record in the NCAA tournament over the last three years currently stands at 11-2. That is pretty damn impressive. They've won 85% of the games that have really counted- the ones where a loss ends your season. The fact that they lost to to one of the best teams in recent memory the past two years can't really be held against them- you may have noticed that everybody else lost to the Gators as well. It's very true that these teams will be remembered for falling just short if they don't win the title this year, but I think that's really a shame. Howland has put together a great program, and regardless of what happens over the next two weeks they should be remembered as the best team of the past three years, rather than some sort of failure.